WotP elementary schools-- Attrition in older grades?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As a parent who has put three kids in private school out of Key I have to say my experience has been very different. All of my kids are advanced on the DCCAS, fwiw. One child got every question right on the DCCAS and scored 99th percentiles on the SSAT. We applied to five private schools and were accepted at three and waitlisted at two. At Maret we were told there were 120 applicants for eight openings in the sixth grade class.

What is telling to me is that families who have a sibling already attending private school, who have a leg up on admissions, pretty much universally leave after third of fourth grades.

That is similar to our experience. Now that we have one in at a good private we might wait until 6 the for child 2 who is happy at public. But even with sibling pref it is a little risky.

[Anonymous]

@13:20: Seriously? If you want to raise the likelihood of sending your kids to an Ivy, and look forward to paying (by then) $75,000+ per year, then you should not be messing with a public school education, at all. You've gotta get them on that hamster wheel starting at day one. Harvard? Hey, go look at some other stats: pick out the best public grade schools, anywhere you choose (not magnet public schools, mind you) and see what percentage of the graduates go to an ivy. I assure you, it ain't a lot.

But, if you want to make sure your kids get a quality education in college, and your kids are decent students to begin with, then Wilson or Hardy should be just fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:With the exception of Sidwell, all kids I know (and I know most of them) from Mann and Key who switched to the private school starting from 6th grade (and who were proficient or above, i.e. about 90% of the class -- see the DC CAS profiles) were able to go to the private middle school of their choice, St Albans, Nat. Cathedral, Maret, Holy Trinity (which is a very good school and is not pricey, so it is in high demand), Washington Episcopal, Washington International, Georgetown Day etc. None has been turned down (again, with the exception of Sidwell).

This is to say that hysterical parents, who started planning in 3rd grade and left in either 3rd or 4th grade to secure a spot in the top private schools, wasted money in 1-2 additional years of private school, annoyed the teachers and principals (these hyper-parents tend to apply to several schools, meaning multiple recommendation letters), stressed out their kids, annoyed and generated undue concerns in the other parents.

If your kid if a proficient kid, good report cards, good DC-CAS, I can guarantee that there's no need to start shaking from second grade (unless your kid is Baby Brain as the PP).

The outlook of enrollment in private schools in NW DC has dramatically changed in the past 5-7 years. Just take a look at the data from a dedicated topic of 1-2 weeks ago. With the raise in quality and attendance of local DCPS schools, enrollment numbers in private schools dropped by 30-70%, depending on grades. Inside sources tell me that the issue of decrease in applications (which reduces the possibility for private schools of cherry-picking the best students), and strategies to attract applications from good students, is nowadays in the agenda of all NW private schools.

So relax and enjoy your happy public elementary school experience until the end of 5th grade (and my recommendation is that there's no need to switch to private/charter if you are IB for Deal or Hardy -- two schools I am academically very familiar with).

PS: situation is different for the top charters. if your target is for instance BASIS or LATIN, then yes, go for it and apply one year ahead, for enrollment in 5th grade. Chances are much much higher by then, and specialized teaching make insertion in 5th grade (rather than 6th grade) smoother for kids.

Teacher and Parent, Ward 3.

Let's stick with Mann, PP.

This year, there are 25 kids in the 5th grade: http://osse.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/osse/publication/attachments/School%20by%20School%20SY13-14%20Enrollment%20Audit_0.pdf

Two years ago, there were 46 kids in the 3rd grade: http://osse.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/osse/publication/attachments/Enrollment%20Audit%20Data%20School%20by%20School%202011-2012.pdf

So, Mann lost at least 21 kids from this year's 5th grade over the past two years. The number is undoubtedly higher as kids do join Mann in the upper grades.

While some families might have moved OOB or out of DC, most switched to private/parochial school. If all of the kids who switched in the past two years had waited until now to switch, the current applicants from Mann would be facing pretty tough competition for those private school spots.

The competition is bad enough already. I know of Mann kids who will be enrolling in their 2nd or 3rd choice school next year. Families who make the switch early, while acting in their own self-interested, perform a public service.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:@13:20: Seriously? If you want to raise the likelihood of sending your kids to an Ivy, and look forward to paying (by then) $75,000+ per year, then you should not be messing with a public school education, at all. You've gotta get them on that hamster wheel starting at day one. Harvard? Hey, go look at some other stats: pick out the best public grade schools, anywhere you choose (not magnet public schools, mind you) and see what percentage of the graduates go to an ivy. I assure you, it ain't a lot.

But, if you want to make sure your kids get a quality education in college, and your kids are decent students to begin with, then Wilson or Hardy should be just fine.

13:20 here. I didn't raise the Harvard issue. An earlier posted did. That said, how many Wilson graduates attend Harvard? How many of those came from Hardy? Seriously, if Wilson is "just fine" then it should be sending its top students to Ivies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:@13:20: Seriously? If you want to raise the likelihood of sending your kids to an Ivy, and look forward to paying (by then) $75,000+ per year, then you should not be messing with a public school education, at all. You've gotta get them on that hamster wheel starting at day one. Harvard? Hey, go look at some other stats: pick out the best public grade schools, anywhere you choose (not magnet public schools, mind you) and see what percentage of the graduates go to an ivy. I assure you, it ain't a lot.

But, if you want to make sure your kids get a quality education in college, and your kids are decent students to begin with, then Wilson or Hardy should be just fine.

13:20 here. I didn't raise the Harvard issue. An earlier posted did. That said, how many Wilson graduates attend Harvard? How many of those came from Hardy? Seriously, if Wilson is "just fine" then it should be sending its top students to Ivies.

Top Wilson students go to top colleges. There is an old topic about it. Consider that college enrolling data for Wilson has two biases: 1) it refers to older cohorts. Lots has changed since when recently graduated kids entered the school; 2) a significant share of these kids are unable to afford the fee of top private colleges. So they apply conditional on financial support/scholarships. If they do not get it, they just opt for State colleges.

What I would find frustrating, if I was a parent, are the negligible numbers of kids going to the ivy colleges from schools such as St Patrick and the British School (numbers are significant only for Sidwell and maybe WIS). I mean you invest $500,000 for your kid education and you end up at Vermont State. What the F***?

[Anonymous]

We are moving out as soon as we can after 3rd grade. We may consider going to Wilson later on but not Deal and not Hardy. No way! Wilson is a great option for us. But the ivy league shuffle and the # of kids who actually get in from privates - if that is why you are sending your child to private - you should re-assess.

[Anonymous]

^^would be strange to send your kid to pvt from 3-8 and then go back to wilson, no?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With the exception of Sidwell, all kids I know (and I know most of them) from Mann and Key who switched to the private school starting from 6th grade (and who were proficient or above, i.e. about 90% of the class -- see the DC CAS profiles) were able to go to the private middle school of their choice, St Albans, Nat. Cathedral, Maret, Holy Trinity (which is a very good school and is not pricey, so it is in high demand), Washington Episcopal, Washington International, Georgetown Day etc. None has been turned down (again, with the exception of Sidwell).

This is to say that hysterical parents, who started planning in 3rd grade and left in either 3rd or 4th grade to secure a spot in the top private schools, wasted money in 1-2 additional years of private school, annoyed the teachers and principals (these hyper-parents tend to apply to several schools, meaning multiple recommendation letters), stressed out their kids, annoyed and generated undue concerns in the other parents.

If your kid if a proficient kid, good report cards, good DC-CAS, I can guarantee that there's no need to start shaking from second grade (unless your kid is Baby Brain as the PP).

The outlook of enrollment in private schools in NW DC has dramatically changed in the past 5-7 years. Just take a look at the data from a dedicated topic of 1-2 weeks ago. With the raise in quality and attendance of local DCPS schools, enrollment numbers in private schools dropped by 30-70%, depending on grades. Inside sources tell me that the issue of decrease in applications (which reduces the possibility for private schools of cherry-picking the best students), and strategies to attract applications from good students, is nowadays in the agenda of all NW private schools.

So relax and enjoy your happy public elementary school experience until the end of 5th grade (and my recommendation is that there's no need to switch to private/charter if you are IB for Deal or Hardy -- two schools I am academically very familiar with).

PS: situation is different for the top charters. if your target is for instance BASIS or LATIN, then yes, go for it and apply one year ahead, for enrollment in 5th grade. Chances are much much higher by then, and specialized teaching make insertion in 5th grade (rather than 6th grade) smoother for kids.

Teacher and Parent, Ward 3.

Let's stick with Mann, PP.

This year, there are 25 kids in the 5th grade: http://osse.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/osse/publication/attachments/School%20by%20School%20SY13-14%20Enrollment%20Audit_0.pdf

Two years ago, there were 46 kids in the 3rd grade: http://osse.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/osse/publication/attachments/Enrollment%20Audit%20Data%20School%20by%20School%202011-2012.pdf

So, Mann lost at least 21 kids from this year's 5th grade over the past two years. The number is undoubtedly higher as kids do join Mann in the upper grades.

While some families might have moved OOB or out of DC, most switched to private/parochial school. If all of the kids who switched in the past two years had waited until now to switch, the current applicants from Mann would be facing pretty tough competition for those private school spots.

The competition is bad enough already. I know of Mann kids who will be enrolling in their 2nd or 3rd choice school next year. Families who make the switch early, while acting in their own self-interested, perform a public service.

Regarding Mann: about 5 kids in the then 3rd grade went back to their home country between this year and the year before (kids from diplomatic families). At least 7 kids left at the end of 4th grade to Basis (5 kids) and and at least 2 to Latin . Few (like 3 kids) were accepted on board from outside in 4th grade. No new kids this year as we only have one 5th grade class. So we "lost" only about of 6 kids who indeed turned to private schools at the end of 3rd or 4th grade.

[Anonymous]

And none of the Mann kids remaining in 5th grade in the 2 previous years went to hardy.

[Anonymous]

Key had 66 third graders in October 2011 and 37 fifth graders in October 2013. And no, they weren't all recalled to their home countries.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Very few privates have admission years at 6th grade. The two charters that appeal to WOTP families, Latin and Basis, do almost all of their admissions in fifth grade. So at my WOTP school (a Hardy feeder) there is a steady bleed starting at third grade. The fifth grade is about 30% of the size of the kindergarten.

Parents have to make a decision about middle school in third or fourth grade, which means making a prediction about where Hardy is going to be 2-3 years out. So far few families have been willing to gamble on that.

Wrong ^^^

This is true at Key and Mann. Very small 5th grades. Not clear what pp thinks is wrong.

I am certain that it's patently wrong to assert that "very few" private schools in dc / close in "have admission" in 6th grade.

In fact, ALL the best independent schools admit students in 6th grade. In fact I'll go even further and state that for the best-known schools, 6th is one of their two most important intake years (with 9th being the other ).

Do you even live in dc?

That's absolutely true for private schools. For some charters (latin, basis) you have 5-7 times as many chances for 5th grade than 6th grade.
Some families in ward 3 apply for private schools as early as 3rd grade for the following reasons:
1. Misinformation and contagious panicking. There's a false impression that you have higher chances in 3rd, 4th grade than in 5th grade
2. If you fail to get a good placement is 4th grade, then you van try again in the following year with a different set of schools
3. Older siblings already migrated to private schools , so economies of scale in dropping/picking if you drive

Again, enrollment numbers in private schools have halved compared to 2004. Stay calm and do not contaminate with panic our kids who are staying.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Key had 66 third graders in October 2011 and 37 fifth graders in October 2013. And no, they weren't all recalled to their home countries.

Key actually added new kids from river and elsewhere in those years so the actual attrition numbers were even higher than those numbers suggest.

[Anonymous]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/168848/life-college-matters-life-college.aspx

Ugh, "Ivy League" schools -- the obsession is so...20th century. Kids have much more pressing matters to deal with these days than their parents' vicarious social aspirations. Really wealthy kids are the only ones that benefit from the Ivy cliques they will be a part of there. All the rest are stuck, later, at 30 years old seeing a shrink to help them deal with how much they suffered along the way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And none of the Mann kids remaining in 5th grade in the 2 previous years went to hardy.

At enrollment time last year there was a newly appointed Principal, after 4 years of managerial disasters. Too much uncertainly for Mann parents, who are smart and wealthy.

The same smart and wealthy parents this year are going for Hardy (25% of 5th grade class) as uncertainty has been eliminated by Principal Pride in just one year of tenure . She has listened and received the needed backup by DCPS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are moving out as soon as we can after 3rd grade. We may consider going to Wilson later on but not Deal and not Hardy. No way! Wilson is a great option for us. But the ivy league shuffle and the # of kids who actually get in from privates - if that is why you are sending your child to private - you should re-assess.

The differential between enrollment to top colleges between public and private schools disappears once you correct for income constraints. I.e. families of top students with modest means are unable to bear the costs of top colleges.

For wealthy families, the ex-ante chances of your kids going to a top colleges are the same (high or low, depends on the child!) weather she graduates from Wilson or from National Cathedral.