I am moving $100k into BTCFX through my TSP Mutual Fund Window (MFW) AMA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Halvings become less and less important as the block reward gets cut in half every 4 years, aka exponential decay. IMO they’re already irrelevant.

But what if the post-halving decline eventually inverts into itself? Then it becomes a pre-halving increase, with a 2x multiplier from the Jupiterean gravity shift.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is it risky? Yes. Does fortune favor the brave? Yes. Is Trump pushing crypto hard. Yes. Has Bitcoin gone up like crazy since inception? Yes. Will it continue or is it all tulips? Who knows.

I moved a bunch of money from my C and S funds and am going to buy the only bitcoin futures mutual funds available in the TSP window “BTCFX.” It pays insane dividends. Guess we’ll see how this plays out.

Roast me or laude me. I welcome it! AMA.

I guess the whales are pumping again.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/matt-damons-fortune-favors-the-brave-commercial-turns-one-heres-how-much-you-wouldve-lost-if-you-bought-crypto-then-11666987405

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You’re very very late

Why am I late? Is it because you think we’re so far into the 4-year cycle post halving timeframe seen in previous cycles? Essentially, are you saying that we can expect more growth of Bitcoin for a short while and then a crash in like late 2025 based on historical precedence? Something like that?

Past performance and all that.

But honestly I think the crash cycle are the real whales manipulating to wring out value into fiat currency.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You’re very very late

Nah, he's still early. BTC still has a lot of runway before take off.

Dipping your toes into a bitcoin ETF is a good first start. I'd encourage you to study bitcoin (The Bitcoin Standard book is a good place to start; as well as Broken Money) and consider the benefits of taking some of your BTC investment into self-custody with actual BTC. It's the difference between holding physical gold and holding a gold ETF.

I think a generation of FDIC and SEC and all that have made people ignorant of the risks of wildcat banking.

If you don’t own the keys, you are at the mercy of coinbase or whatever to own the keys — and they were just hacked and honestly it’s just a matter of time till real keys get stolen (aka Mt Gox) and the money is gone gone with no insurance, no reversibility.

Likewise, you can store your own key… somewhere. Cold wallet, hope the flash memory doesn’t degrade. Engraved in a titanium fob, well that stick is now worth more than its weight in platinum, don’t lose it. It’s a real pain being your own bank.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You’re very very late

Nah, he's still early. BTC still has a lot of runway before take off.

Dipping your toes into a bitcoin ETF is a good first start. I'd encourage you to study bitcoin (The Bitcoin Standard book is a good place to start; as well as Broken Money) and consider the benefits of taking some of your BTC investment into self-custody with actual BTC. It's the difference between holding physical gold and holding a gold ETF.

I think a generation of FDIC and SEC and all that have made people ignorant of the risks of wildcat banking.

If you don’t own the keys, you are at the mercy of coinbase or whatever to own the keys — and they were just hacked and honestly it’s just a matter of time till real keys get stolen (aka Mt Gox) and the money is gone gone with no insurance, no reversibility.

Likewise, you can store your own key… somewhere. Cold wallet, hope the flash memory doesn’t degrade. Engraved in a titanium fob, well that stick is now worth more than its weight in platinum, don’t lose it. It’s a real pain being your own bank.

Could just store it on a hard drive...whoops.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/feb/10/man-who-lost-bitcoin-fortune-in-welsh-tip-explores-purchase-of-entire-landfill

[Anonymous]

Okay, sure. There are crypto fraud schemes. There are also fraud schemes wherever money is involved. Bitcoin has been resilient since its inception. It also has broader appeal and adoption now. I’m sure it’ll crash at some point again. I don’t think we’ve recovered from tariff induced pains at all or even seen a real reckoning yet. But bitcoin is a cult now and fk it, I’m in if it keeps going up perpetually through booms and busts.

Also, BTCFX, the only Bitcoin related fund in the tsp window actually relies upon Bitcoin futures and is not self-custodying anything or reliant on coinbase. I wish we had FBTC available. Because that is Bitcoin held by fidelity and not coinbase, but whatever I’ll take what I can get. I’ll see how my dividends on BTCFX pay for the next 5 months, but I am guessing handsomely. I’ll consider moving funds back to C around October if this crash prediction based on historical cycles appears to have traction.

[Anonymous]

Wait TSP has a bitcoin related investment option? I don't see that in my TSP ... it's all the usual mutual funds etc.

[Anonymous]

Bitcoin is beginning to decouple and is doing well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wait TSP has a bitcoin related investment option? I don't see that in my TSP ... it's all the usual mutual funds etc.

it's the mutual fund window option. search reddit for info.

[Anonymous]

As a relatively early bitcoin investor at $500 I am amused at people who still think it is a way to get rich. Those days are done. Bitcoin still has no real use case. It is highly correlated to the Nasdaq. Just buy QQQM and hold. Maybe TQQQ a bit for a wilder ride. The Bitcoin funds have fees that are way too high in comparison.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Bitcoin is beginning to decouple and is doing well.

You are seeing that the dollar has dropped in value.

[Anonymous]

"The Fund currently seeks to achieve this objective primarily through investments in bitcoin futures contracts. The Fund does not invest directly in bitcoin."


This reminds me of 2008 when I learned the term "counterparty risk". The contract came in and I won million bucks from a guy who is broke and can't pay me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Bitcoin is beginning to decouple and is doing well.

You are seeing that the dollar has dropped in value.

The real question is when Bitcoin will.move into Venus and throuple.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Bitcoin is beginning to decouple and is doing well.

You are seeing that the dollar has dropped in value.

The real question is when Bitcoin will.move into Venus and throuple.

Ha ha that’s so clever.