university admissions feel like they're either super easy or impossible

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I feel like there are a bunch of liberal arts colleges in the 30-60% acceptance range.

Yup. Look at LACs ranked between 40-60 in USNWR.

Union, Kenyon, Sewanee, Furman, Dickinson, Whitman, Connecticut College, Gettysburg, Rhodes

All of these schools have acceptance rates between 30 and 60 percent. So, they don't take just any old joker who applies, but they should be relatively easy admits for a true "high stats" kid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s not just you. Typically there are fewer selective schools and more nonselective schools. But if you use Niche to sort by selectivity, there are fewer “very selective” schools (15-30% admissions rates) than there are “extremely selective” schools (under 15%).

The problem is particularly acute if you’re seeking a school with at least 3,000 undergrads. There are only 16 schools with 3,000 or more students and admissions rates of 15-30%. One of those 16 is the Air Force Academy. Another nine are state schools that favor state residents (Michigan, UVA, UNC, Ga. Tech, Florida, FSU, UCSD, UCSB, and UC Irvine). Two are private schools in Florida, the Universities of Miami and Tampa. That leaves BC, Wake, Case, and Villanova. And all four seem to take a lot of their students ED.

That’s why it feels like if you don’t get into an extremely selective school (under 15%), you’ll wind up at a much less selective school (over 30%). There is, in fact, almost nothing in between.

30% is an arbitrary choice. Schools like Rochester (or maybe Santa Clara) are equal/similar to all 4 of those schools.

Yes, 30% is arbitrary, but there’s not some large group of private universities with 30-50% admit rates, just a handful. And many schools in that group are safeties for high-stats kids, unless they yield protect, whether by admitting most of their class ED or by less transparent means.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I feel like there are a bunch of liberal arts colleges in the 30-60% acceptance range.

Yup. Look at LACs ranked between 40-60 in USNWR.

Union, Kenyon, Sewanee, Furman, Dickinson, Whitman, Connecticut College, Gettysburg, Rhodes

All of these schools have acceptance rates between 30 and 60 percent. So, they don't take just any old joker who applies, but they should be relatively easy admits for a true "high stats" kid.

Right, that’s what OP said. It’s all either next-to-impossible or relatively easy. There are no targets.

[Anonymous]

Agree. DS got some admits with merit almost immediately after applying, but he is sweating out his personal crown jewel and a few others. EA applications.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I feel like every place my kid applied to as a "high stats" kid has either quite easy admissions (and hands out generous aid) or is a total lottery crap shot, snow-balls chance in hell kind of reach. Anyone else free this way?
It's unnerving. I wish there was more of a middle ground.

Super easy = accepted
Impossible = rejected

It’s pretty much a binary result right?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I feel like every place my kid applied to as a "high stats" kid has either quite easy admissions (and hands out generous aid) or is a total lottery crap shot, snow-balls chance in hell kind of reach. Anyone else free this way?
It's unnerving. I wish there was more of a middle ground.

there is a middle ground, where your stats from your high school give you 25-75% admission odds. The key is to know your school (look at SCOIR scattergrams for the high school).
for example above a 4.45 (that is usually top 10% at our school)and a 1450 ish, every single point on the scattergram is a green check for UVA, 3 years of data are on here. For Virginia Tech all but one of the datapoints are green above a 4.2 and a1350, and there are several greens that extend lower too, down to 3.7W/1250 which is just below our school average. The higher dot that is a no might be engineering who knows, or VT is known to yield protect. The highest kids (4.5/1530+)do not seem to apply to VT but they all get in to UVA and most seem to apply.
UGA has green for almost everyone above a 4.1 WGPA and about half in the 3.9 W range too: UGA is a "match" for students in this range, as there is about a 50/50 chance, so it is a much easier admit than UVA in state and also easier than VT in state.
W&Lee is ALL green just below the cutoffs of UVA, up to the top kids, so that is a highly likely admit for the top 10% just like UVA.
JMU appears to be a sea of green for everyone but the very lowest, 3.3 Weighted, 1100 types--that is the very bottom of our school based on school profile. Auburn is the same.
The only schools that have a genuine mix of red and green and WL all the way up to the highest dots 4.72/1580 type kids are the ivies and Duke, reaches for everyone. Even UNCCH has a fairly predictable more than 75% green above 4.6/1500.

So, what you’re saying is that for high stats kids, targets are either LACs or state flagships (including OOS flagships).

That's the way it is for most kids. There just are not that many schools in the 3,000-10,000 range. That is the magic school for many people. It seems to be a lot of Catholic schools in that range and not much else. Is that what you are looking for? Even lower stats kids have a hard time finding it. If that is what you really want, your kid will probably have to slum it in a school "below" their level.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s not just you. Typically there are fewer selective schools and more nonselective schools. But if you use Niche to sort by selectivity, there are fewer “very selective” schools (15-30% admissions rates) than there are “extremely selective” schools (under 15%).

The problem is particularly acute if you’re seeking a school with at least 3,000 undergrads. There are only 16 schools with 3,000 or more students and admissions rates of 15-30%. One of those 16 is the Air Force Academy. Another nine are state schools that favor state residents (Michigan, UVA, UNC, Ga. Tech, Florida, FSU, UCSD, UCSB, and UC Irvine). Two are private schools in Florida, the Universities of Miami and Tampa. That leaves BC, Wake, Case, and Villanova. And all four seem to take a lot of their students ED.

That’s why it feels like if you don’t get into an extremely selective school (under 15%), you’ll wind up at a much less selective school (over 30%). There is, in fact, almost nothing in between.

30% is an arbitrary choice. Schools like Rochester (or maybe Santa Clara) are equal/similar to all 4 of those schools.

Yes, 30% is arbitrary, but there’s not some large group of private universities with 30-50% admit rates, just a handful. And many schools in that group are safeties for high-stats kids, unless they yield protect, whether by admitting most of their class ED or by less transparent means.

So what, it expands your group well beyond 4 with no loss in quality. Rochester, Lehigh, Fordham aren't really safeties for anyone anymore though they shouldn't be hard with a bit of thought. Even Syracuse is rejecting high stats kids into certain schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s not just you. Typically there are fewer selective schools and more nonselective schools. But if you use Niche to sort by selectivity, there are fewer “very selective” schools (15-30% admissions rates) than there are “extremely selective” schools (under 15%).

The problem is particularly acute if you’re seeking a school with at least 3,000 undergrads. There are only 16 schools with 3,000 or more students and admissions rates of 15-30%. One of those 16 is the Air Force Academy. Another nine are state schools that favor state residents (Michigan, UVA, UNC, Ga. Tech, Florida, FSU, UCSD, UCSB, and UC Irvine). Two are private schools in Florida, the Universities of Miami and Tampa. That leaves BC, Wake, Case, and Villanova. And all four seem to take a lot of their students ED.

That’s why it feels like if you don’t get into an extremely selective school (under 15%), you’ll wind up at a much less selective school (over 30%). There is, in fact, almost nothing in between.

30% is an arbitrary choice. Schools like Rochester (or maybe Santa Clara) are equal/similar to all 4 of those schools.

Quick tip - Niche is useless for these stats. Very outdated and doesn't explain many many factors.

Add Lehigh (25%), Bucknell (28%), Lafayette (31%), Tulane (16%), just to name a few. This was my dd's list, as she's in that same high stat/no big hook, but still good ECs, good recs.

Don't forget Honors Colleges as well. Some very good merit and great options at less selective schools like Pitt, Alabama.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I feel like every place my kid applied to as a "high stats" kid has either quite easy admissions (and hands out generous aid) or is a total lottery crap shot, snow-balls chance in hell kind of reach. Anyone else free this way?
It's unnerving. I wish there was more of a middle ground.

there is a middle ground, where your stats from your high school give you 25-75% admission odds. The key is to know your school (look at SCOIR scattergrams for the high school).
for example above a 4.45 (that is usually top 10% at our school)and a 1450 ish, every single point on the scattergram is a green check for UVA, 3 years of data are on here. For Virginia Tech all but one of the datapoints are green above a 4.2 and a1350, and there are several greens that extend lower too, down to 3.7W/1250 which is just below our school average. The higher dot that is a no might be engineering who knows, or VT is known to yield protect. The highest kids (4.5/1530+)do not seem to apply to VT but they all get in to UVA and most seem to apply.
UGA has green for almost everyone above a 4.1 WGPA and about half in the 3.9 W range too: UGA is a "match" for students in this range, as there is about a 50/50 chance, so it is a much easier admit than UVA in state and also easier than VT in state.
W&Lee is ALL green just below the cutoffs of UVA, up to the top kids, so that is a highly likely admit for the top 10% just like UVA.
JMU appears to be a sea of green for everyone but the very lowest, 3.3 Weighted, 1100 types--that is the very bottom of our school based on school profile. Auburn is the same.
The only schools that have a genuine mix of red and green and WL all the way up to the highest dots 4.72/1580 type kids are the ivies and Duke, reaches for everyone. Even UNCCH has a fairly predictable more than 75% green above 4.6/1500.

So, what you’re saying is that for high stats kids, targets are either LACs or state flagships (including OOS flagships).

That's the way it is for most kids. There just are not that many schools in the 3,000-10,000 range. That is the magic school for many people. It seems to be a lot of Catholic schools in that range and not much else. Is that what you are looking for? Even lower stats kids have a hard time finding it. If that is what you really want, your kid will probably have to slum it in a school "below" their level.

I actually think this is why my kid will wind up at a flagship. I agree the smaller 3,000-10,000 schools are preferable, all things being equal, but my kid is tired of being a statistical outlier in high school and it seems like the flagship will have the larger group of high-stats students (even if it’s just because they have more of everything).

[Anonymous]

There is a middle ground.

[Anonymous]

Yes--My high stats kid was rejected from U Miami (even with lots of demonstrated interest). Many schools in the middle so to speak want ED to prove interest.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There is a middle ground.

Where?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I feel like every place my kid applied to as a "high stats" kid has either quite easy admissions (and hands out generous aid) or is a total lottery crap shot, snow-balls chance in hell kind of reach. Anyone else free this way?
It's unnerving. I wish there was more of a middle ground.

there is a middle ground, where your stats from your high school give you 25-75% admission odds. The key is to know your school (look at SCOIR scattergrams for the high school).
for example above a 4.45 (that is usually top 10% at our school)and a 1450 ish, every single point on the scattergram is a green check for UVA, 3 years of data are on here. For Virginia Tech all but one of the datapoints are green above a 4.2 and a1350, and there are several greens that extend lower too, down to 3.7W/1250 which is just below our school average. The higher dot that is a no might be engineering who knows, or VT is known to yield protect. The highest kids (4.5/1530+)do not seem to apply to VT but they all get in to UVA and most seem to apply.
UGA has green for almost everyone above a 4.1 WGPA and about half in the 3.9 W range too: UGA is a "match" for students in this range, as there is about a 50/50 chance, so it is a much easier admit than UVA in state and also easier than VT in state.
W&Lee is ALL green just below the cutoffs of UVA, up to the top kids, so that is a highly likely admit for the top 10% just like UVA.
JMU appears to be a sea of green for everyone but the very lowest, 3.3 Weighted, 1100 types--that is the very bottom of our school based on school profile. Auburn is the same.
The only schools that have a genuine mix of red and green and WL all the way up to the highest dots 4.72/1580 type kids are the ivies and Duke, reaches for everyone. Even UNCCH has a fairly predictable more than 75% green above 4.6/1500.

This is much harder from private schools where are few data points. For example 4 kids who applied to a large state university last year. The ones with 3.75 did not get in. The 3.98 did. Where does that leave 3.85-3.9 DC this year? No idea.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It’s not just you. Typically there are fewer selective schools and more nonselective schools. But if you use Niche to sort by selectivity, there are fewer “very selective” schools (15-30% admissions rates) than there are “extremely selective” schools (under 15%).

The problem is particularly acute if you’re seeking a school with at least 3,000 undergrads. There are only 16 schools with 3,000 or more students and admissions rates of 15-30%. One of those 16 is the Air Force Academy. Another nine are state schools that favor state residents (Michigan, UVA, UNC, Ga. Tech, Florida, FSU, UCSD, UCSB, and UC Irvine). Two are private schools in Florida, the Universities of Miami and Tampa. That leaves BC, Wake, Case, and Villanova. And all four seem to take a lot of their students ED.

That’s why it feels like if you don’t get into an extremely selective school (under 15%), you’ll wind up at a much less selective school (over 30%). There is, in fact, almost nothing in between.

Is this really true? It helps explain my kid's list of stretches (for anyone) and safeties.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s not just you. Typically there are fewer selective schools and more nonselective schools. But if you use Niche to sort by selectivity, there are fewer “very selective” schools (15-30% admissions rates) than there are “extremely selective” schools (under 15%).

The problem is particularly acute if you’re seeking a school with at least 3,000 undergrads. There are only 16 schools with 3,000 or more students and admissions rates of 15-30%. One of those 16 is the Air Force Academy. Another nine are state schools that favor state residents (Michigan, UVA, UNC, Ga. Tech, Florida, FSU, UCSD, UCSB, and UC Irvine). Two are private schools in Florida, the Universities of Miami and Tampa. That leaves BC, Wake, Case, and Villanova. And all four seem to take a lot of their students ED.

That’s why it feels like if you don’t get into an extremely selective school (under 15%), you’ll wind up at a much less selective school (over 30%). There is, in fact, almost nothing in between.

Is this really true? It helps explain my kid's list of stretches (for anyone) and safeties.

Very true