university admissions feel like they're either super easy or impossible

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, 100%. We spent a lot of time and effort making a list and could only come up with three targets to six safeties and six reaches. Targets are hard to come by with very high stats. And she already got into one of the targets with a big merit award.

Can you share the school?

Case Western - $40,500 per year

Same for my kid!

And my DD

[Anonymous]

Don’t you also need to find the schools where everyone else from your school isn’t applying???

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s hard with high stats to have targets because the target (as well as safeties) may yield protect and the applicant’s stats are in top range for any school but still exceedingly unlikely to get in.

+1

Agree, and it’s really unfortunate because it sets you up to play the lottery game rather than have a good balance of reach/target/safety schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Don’t you also need to find the schools where everyone else from your school isn’t applying???

Yes

[Anonymous]

This is true because everyone is trying to get into the same 50 schools, and beyond that the schools are basically dying for people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not really. There’s a ton of schools in the 20-40% acceptance range which are neither easy admission or impossible. Just apply to schools like SMU, URochester, Lehigh, etc.

Son's best friend got $40K in merit aid from SMU (4.0 UW/TO).

[Anonymous]

Your kid is high stats. They have lots of choices. You don’t “need” targets per se. Pick the schools your kid likes, they can be reaches and safeties if that is what they like. This is not an entirely scientific process that requires a certain number of each. Just make sure your kid will get in somewhere and let the. Choose what appeals to them. It’s honestly not that hard (having been through it twice, once post Covid in the TO world).

[Anonymous]

I feel like there are a bunch of liberal arts colleges in the 30-60% acceptance range.

[Anonymous]

Agree but I wasn't sure if that is due to our situation where we cannot afford the more selective schools outside of our flagship.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not really. There’s a ton of schools in the 20-40% acceptance range which are neither easy admission or impossible. Just apply to schools like SMU, URochester, Lehigh, etc.

Son's best friend got $40K in merit aid from SMU (4.0 UW/TO).

TO apps are not the ones getting yield-protected. By definition, if you apply TO, you don't have the scores for the school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not really. There’s a ton of schools in the 20-40% acceptance range which are neither easy admission or impossible. Just apply to schools like SMU, URochester, Lehigh, etc.

Son's best friend got $40K in merit aid from SMU (4.0 UW/TO).

TO apps are not the ones getting yield-protected. By definition, if you apply TO, you don't have the scores for the school.

Sorry, I posted in the wrong thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I feel like every place my kid applied to as a "high stats" kid has either quite easy admissions (and hands out generous aid) or is a total lottery crap shot, snow-balls chance in hell kind of reach. Anyone else free this way?
It's unnerving. I wish there was more of a middle ground.

there is a middle ground, where your stats from your high school give you 25-75% admission odds. The key is to know your school (look at SCOIR scattergrams for the high school).
for example above a 4.45 (that is usually top 10% at our school)and a 1450 ish, every single point on the scattergram is a green check for UVA, 3 years of data are on here. For Virginia Tech all but one of the datapoints are green above a 4.2 and a1350, and there are several greens that extend lower too, down to 3.7W/1250 which is just below our school average. The higher dot that is a no might be engineering who knows, or VT is known to yield protect. The highest kids (4.5/1530+)do not seem to apply to VT but they all get in to UVA and most seem to apply.
UGA has green for almost everyone above a 4.1 WGPA and about half in the 3.9 W range too: UGA is a "match" for students in this range, as there is about a 50/50 chance, so it is a much easier admit than UVA in state and also easier than VT in state.
W&Lee is ALL green just below the cutoffs of UVA, up to the top kids, so that is a highly likely admit for the top 10% just like UVA.
JMU appears to be a sea of green for everyone but the very lowest, 3.3 Weighted, 1100 types--that is the very bottom of our school based on school profile. Auburn is the same.
The only schools that have a genuine mix of red and green and WL all the way up to the highest dots 4.72/1580 type kids are the ivies and Duke, reaches for everyone. Even UNCCH has a fairly predictable more than 75% green above 4.6/1500.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I feel like there are a bunch of liberal arts colleges in the 30-60% acceptance range.

yes but as a previous posted stated, if your kid wants a school >3000 it's harder.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It’s not just you. Typically there are fewer selective schools and more nonselective schools. But if you use Niche to sort by selectivity, there are fewer “very selective” schools (15-30% admissions rates) than there are “extremely selective” schools (under 15%).

The problem is particularly acute if you’re seeking a school with at least 3,000 undergrads. There are only 16 schools with 3,000 or more students and admissions rates of 15-30%. One of those 16 is the Air Force Academy. Another nine are state schools that favor state residents (Michigan, UVA, UNC, Ga. Tech, Florida, FSU, UCSD, UCSB, and UC Irvine). Two are private schools in Florida, the Universities of Miami and Tampa. That leaves BC, Wake, Case, and Villanova. And all four seem to take a lot of their students ED.

That’s why it feels like if you don’t get into an extremely selective school (under 15%), you’ll wind up at a much less selective school (over 30%). There is, in fact, almost nothing in between.

30% is an arbitrary choice. Schools like Rochester (or maybe Santa Clara) are equal/similar to all 4 of those schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I feel like every place my kid applied to as a "high stats" kid has either quite easy admissions (and hands out generous aid) or is a total lottery crap shot, snow-balls chance in hell kind of reach. Anyone else free this way?
It's unnerving. I wish there was more of a middle ground.

there is a middle ground, where your stats from your high school give you 25-75% admission odds. The key is to know your school (look at SCOIR scattergrams for the high school).
for example above a 4.45 (that is usually top 10% at our school)and a 1450 ish, every single point on the scattergram is a green check for UVA, 3 years of data are on here. For Virginia Tech all but one of the datapoints are green above a 4.2 and a1350, and there are several greens that extend lower too, down to 3.7W/1250 which is just below our school average. The higher dot that is a no might be engineering who knows, or VT is known to yield protect. The highest kids (4.5/1530+)do not seem to apply to VT but they all get in to UVA and most seem to apply.
UGA has green for almost everyone above a 4.1 WGPA and about half in the 3.9 W range too: UGA is a "match" for students in this range, as there is about a 50/50 chance, so it is a much easier admit than UVA in state and also easier than VT in state.
W&Lee is ALL green just below the cutoffs of UVA, up to the top kids, so that is a highly likely admit for the top 10% just like UVA.
JMU appears to be a sea of green for everyone but the very lowest, 3.3 Weighted, 1100 types--that is the very bottom of our school based on school profile. Auburn is the same.
The only schools that have a genuine mix of red and green and WL all the way up to the highest dots 4.72/1580 type kids are the ivies and Duke, reaches for everyone. Even UNCCH has a fairly predictable more than 75% green above 4.6/1500.

So, what you’re saying is that for high stats kids, targets are either LACs or state flagships (including OOS flagships).