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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I feel like every place my kid applied to as a "high stats" kid has either quite easy admissions (and hands out generous aid) or is a total lottery crap shot, snow-balls chance in hell kind of reach. Anyone else free this way? 
It's unnerving. I wish there was more of a middle ground. 
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there is a middle ground, where your stats from your high school give you 25-75% admission odds. The key is to know your school (look at SCOIR scattergrams for the high school). 
for example above a 4.45 (that is usually top 10% at our school)and a 1450 ish, every single point on the scattergram is a green check for UVA, 3 years of data are on here. For Virginia Tech all but one of the datapoints are green above a 4.2 and a1350, and there are several greens that extend lower too, down to 3.7W/1250 which is just below our school average. The higher dot that is a no might be engineering who knows, or VT is known to yield protect. The highest kids (4.5/1530+)do not seem to apply to VT but they all get in to UVA and most seem to apply. 
UGA has green for almost everyone above a 4.1 WGPA and  about half in the 3.9 W range too: UGA is a "match" for students in this range, as there is about a 50/50 chance, so it is a much easier admit than UVA in state and also easier than VT in state. 
W&Lee is ALL green just below the cutoffs of UVA, up to the top kids, so that is a highly likely admit for the top 10% just like UVA. 
JMU appears to be a sea of green for everyone but the very lowest, 3.3 Weighted, 1100 types--that is the very bottom of our school based on school profile. Auburn is the same. 
The only schools that have a genuine mix of red and green and WL all the way up to the highest dots 4.72/1580 type kids are the ivies and Duke, reaches for everyone. Even UNCCH has a fairly predictable more than 75% green above 4.6/1500.
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This is much harder from private schools where are few data points. For example 4 kids who applied to a large state university last year. The ones with 3.75 did not get in. The 3.98 did. Where does that leave 3.85-3.9 DC this year? No idea. [/quote]

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