T20 undergraduate population vs # of available 99th percentile students

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because I'm bored... if there are roughly 195,000 undergraduates students in the top 20... and roughly 48,750-ish incoming freshman... and only 12,000-ish 99th percentile test scorers... doesn't that mean only 25% of these students are in the top percentile?

That means don't worry if your kid doesn't score in the 99th percentile. There is plenty of room for them. Go ahead and apply and use your scores.

1.9 million SAT scores, 1.4 million ACT. That's 3.3 million test scores, 33,000 of those tests scores are top 1%. There is some overlap with people taking both tests or even retaking a test after getting a 1500 on the SAT but this is reasonably close.

2.34 entering freshmen this fall nationwide. 23,000 is top 1% of college freshmen

No need to turn this into a hair splitting exercise. Like... 1500 is not 99th percentile. 1530 is 99th percentile. That drop your numbers by many thousands right there. And then, like you said, many students take both exams. Sticking strictly to the SAT numbers PrepScholar reported 12245 scored 1530 or higher. That might be 2022, however, and not 2023. Whatever. The whole point is that there are roughly 48,000 freshman starting college at a T20 school and there are about 12,000 kids with 99th percentile (1530+) SAT scores. That suggests that nobody should get too worried if they are applying to a T20 school with a 90th to 98th percentile score.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:California Institute of Technology (982)
Dartmouth (4458)
Rice (4494)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (4657)
Princeton (5604)
Johns Hopkins (6044)
Duke (6640)
Yale (6645)
Vanderbilt (7151)
Harvard (7240)
University of Chicago (7470)
Brown (7639)
Stanford (8049)
Northwestern (8659)
Columbia (8832)
University of Notre Dame (8971)
University of Pennsylvania (9760)
Cornell (15735)
University of California, Los Angeles (32423)
University of California, Berkeley (32831)

These aren't numbers for entering class, this might include graduate students. I mean we just saw that harvard has about 1700 students in its entering class.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I recommend that you don't use superscoring in this analysis. Superscoring seems like a public relations gesture to stressed out students. Rather than something that really impacts a lot of candidates to get them admitted. And you don't have any data on what improvements are typically seen with superscoring. Any assumptions might be quite off.

?? A 35 superscore is the same as a 35 in one setting. Test scores check a box not get you admitted. It is possible you could create a good impression by a one and done 35 but you would create a better impression by a 36 superscored. All colleges are looking for is the number. It does impact a lot of candidates.

No, it's not. It implies a different (lower) "true ability".

No, because you don't know if the person with a higher first score would sustain that score on a second sitting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are roughly 2 million SAT takers and 1.4 million ACT takers. A proportion take both.

Assuming there are 3 million test takers. 1% yields 30,000 who are in the 99th percentile.

With superscoring, that number at least doubles, so one is looking at 60,000 students scoring in the 99th percentile.

About 60k, I agree , probably more, at 1510+ or 34 which is about the 99th%ile. That is more than enough to fill all T15 freshman classes. Because each takes about 25% under that due to institutional needs and hooks, and recently all the TO BS, the 99th percenters spread to many more schools, but are only a majority at the topmost schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Don’t forget the 180,000+ Chinese and Indian internationals in the 99th percentile, many of whom are applying to ivies too. In top of the kids from Nigeria or Singapore or Korea or wherever.

THIS

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I recommend that you don't use superscoring in this analysis. Superscoring seems like a public relations gesture to stressed out students. Rather than something that really impacts a lot of candidates to get them admitted. And you don't have any data on what improvements are typically seen with superscoring. Any assumptions might be quite off.

?? A 35 superscore is the same as a 35 in one setting. Test scores check a box not get you admitted. It is possible you could create a good impression by a one and done 35 but you would create a better impression by a 36 superscored. All colleges are looking for is the number. It does impact a lot of candidates.

No, it's not. It implies a different (lower) "true ability".

No, because you don't know if the person with a higher first score would sustain that score on a second sitting.

That's right, you don't know. They could score lower but they could also score or even higher. So, when you average all those possibilities, your beast guess is that they would score exactly the same. Meanwhile, for the student with 2 tries, your best guess is that their "true ability" of 34.5.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because I'm bored... if there are roughly 195,000 undergraduates students in the top 20... and roughly 48,750-ish incoming freshman... and only 12,000-ish 99th percentile test scorers... doesn't that mean only 25% of these students are in the top percentile?

That means don't worry if your kid doesn't score in the 99th percentile. There is plenty of room for them. Go ahead and apply and use your scores.

1.9 million SAT scores, 1.4 million ACT. That's 3.3 million test scores, 33,000 of those tests scores are top 1%. There is some overlap with people taking both tests or even retaking a test after getting a 1500 on the SAT but this is reasonably close.

2.34 entering freshmen this fall nationwide. 23,000 is top 1% of college freshmen

No need to turn this into a hair splitting exercise. Like... 1500 is not 99th percentile. 1530 is 99th percentile. That drop your numbers by many thousands right there. And then, like you said, many students take both exams. Sticking strictly to the SAT numbers PrepScholar reported 12245 scored 1530 or higher. That might be 2022, however, and not 2023. Whatever. The whole point is that there are roughly 48,000 freshman starting college at a T20 school and there are about 12,000 kids with 99th percentile (1530+) SAT scores. That suggests that nobody should get too worried if they are applying to a T20 school with a 90th to 98th percentile score.

98th or 97th ok they are in range, but come on 90th is NOT CLOSE to competitive for T20! Do not be ridiculous.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:California Institute of Technology (982)
Dartmouth (4458)
Rice (4494)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (4657)
Princeton (5604)
Johns Hopkins (6044)
Duke (6640)
Yale (6645)
Vanderbilt (7151)
Harvard (7240)
University of Chicago (7470)
Brown (7639)
Stanford (8049)
Northwestern (8659)
Columbia (8832)
University of Notre Dame (8971)
University of Pennsylvania (9760)
Cornell (15735)
University of California, Los Angeles (32423)
University of California, Berkeley (32831)

Berkeley and UCLA are test blind. Shouldn't even factor into this

Yes they should, those kids are top 1% material even if they don’t take the test.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are roughly 2 million SAT takers and 1.4 million ACT takers. A proportion take both.

Assuming there are 3 million test takers. 1% yields 30,000 who are in the 99th percentile.

With superscoring, that number at least doubles, so one is looking at 60,000 students scoring in the 99th percentile.

About 60k, I agree , probably more, at 1510+ or 34 which is about the 99th%ile. That is more than enough to fill all T15 freshman classes. Because each takes about 25% under that due to institutional needs and hooks, and recently all the TO BS, the 99th percenters spread to many more schools, but are only a majority at the topmost schools.

1510 was, last year, 97th-98th percentile and it doesn't really matter at all. 1510 is a GREAT result and kids with 1510 are competitive everywhere. Also, the thread was about the T20 not the T15. Also, also, why do people keep coming up with their own numbers when College Board tells you exactly how many there were????

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:California Institute of Technology (982)
Dartmouth (4458)
Rice (4494)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (4657)
Princeton (5604)
Johns Hopkins (6044)
Duke (6640)
Yale (6645)
Vanderbilt (7151)
Harvard (7240)
University of Chicago (7470)
Brown (7639)
Stanford (8049)
Northwestern (8659)
Columbia (8832)
University of Notre Dame (8971)
University of Pennsylvania (9760)
Cornell (15735)
University of California, Los Angeles (32423)
University of California, Berkeley (32831)

These aren't numbers for entering class, this might include graduate students. I mean we just saw that harvard has about 1700 students in its entering class.

Those numbers are for the undergrad size.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because I'm bored... if there are roughly 195,000 undergraduates students in the top 20... and roughly 48,750-ish incoming freshman... and only 12,000-ish 99th percentile test scorers... doesn't that mean only 25% of these students are in the top percentile?

That means don't worry if your kid doesn't score in the 99th percentile. There is plenty of room for them. Go ahead and apply and use your scores.

1.9 million SAT scores, 1.4 million ACT. That's 3.3 million test scores, 33,000 of those tests scores are top 1%. There is some overlap with people taking both tests or even retaking a test after getting a 1500 on the SAT but this is reasonably close.

2.34 entering freshmen this fall nationwide. 23,000 is top 1% of college freshmen

No need to turn this into a hair splitting exercise. Like... 1500 is not 99th percentile. 1530 is 99th percentile. That drop your numbers by many thousands right there. And then, like you said, many students take both exams. Sticking strictly to the SAT numbers PrepScholar reported 12245 scored 1530 or higher. That might be 2022, however, and not 2023. Whatever. The whole point is that there are roughly 48,000 freshman starting college at a T20 school and there are about 12,000 kids with 99th percentile (1530+) SAT scores. That suggests that nobody should get too worried if they are applying to a T20 school with a 90th to 98th percentile score.

There are 10x as many people at 90th vs 99th

99th being close enough by these numbers is different from 90th.

When you see things like 6% acceptance rate, it's mostly 90th+% kids stretching to apply, not the lower score cohort.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:California Institute of Technology (982)
Dartmouth (4458)
Rice (4494)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (4657)
Princeton (5604)
Johns Hopkins (6044)
Duke (6640)
Yale (6645)
Vanderbilt (7151)
Harvard (7240)
University of Chicago (7470)
Brown (7639)
Stanford (8049)
Northwestern (8659)
Columbia (8832)
University of Notre Dame (8971)
University of Pennsylvania (9760)
Cornell (15735)
University of California, Los Angeles (32423)
University of California, Berkeley (32831)

Berkeley and UCLA are test blind. Shouldn't even factor into this

Yes they should, those kids are top 1% material even if they don’t take the test.

1. You have no idea if they are top 1%, and not even Berkeley and UCLA AOs know. The professors certainly think the kids aren't.

2. It still doesn't matter for purposes of this discussion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:California Institute of Technology (982)
Dartmouth (4458)
Rice (4494)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (4657)
Princeton (5604)
Johns Hopkins (6044)
Duke (6640)
Yale (6645)
Vanderbilt (7151)
Harvard (7240)
University of Chicago (7470)
Brown (7639)
Stanford (8049)
Northwestern (8659)
Columbia (8832)
University of Notre Dame (8971)
University of Pennsylvania (9760)
Cornell (15735)
University of California, Los Angeles (32423)
University of California, Berkeley (32831)

This is TOTAL undergrads. Just freshman is around 32,000 spots not counting UCLA and UCB, 48,000 with them included. From sourced data above that lists the 99th test takers as 78,000(it used greater than 1500), there are not nearly enough spots even if these schools filled every spot with these kids! They do not, because 1/4 are TO/other hooked kids get in with less, so there are max 24,000 unhooked spots for the top 17 private schools, about half that for the T10. It is not at all surprising that the top 12 of these 17 as far as academics/eliteness (ie the "ivy/+") are the ones that had median SAT scores of around 1500 PRE test optional 2019-20. These are hugely competitive schools that are only realistic for kids with scores 1500+ if unhooked. If your kid is not scoring that, or at least very close(ie minimum 1480), and they are not hooked, these schools are not reasonable reaches and even if your kid got in they would not compete well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I recommend that you don't use superscoring in this analysis. Superscoring seems like a public relations gesture to stressed out students. Rather than something that really impacts a lot of candidates to get them admitted. And you don't have any data on what improvements are typically seen with superscoring. Any assumptions might be quite off.

?? A 35 superscore is the same as a 35 in one setting. Test scores check a box not get you admitted. It is possible you could create a good impression by a one and done 35 but you would create a better impression by a 36 superscored. All colleges are looking for is the number. It does impact a lot of candidates.

No, it's not. It implies a different (lower) "true ability".

Most ridiculous post of the day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The number from a 2022 Common App report:

76,747 students applied to college with ACT/SAT scores >1500 (99%)

Thank you for this more realistic figure.