Lottery/school choice hypothetical

[Anonymous]

I think its potentially somewhat hard on a child to repeatedly change schools. If your child still has friends at red plus the benefit of a short commute, trust your instinct to stay, hope for a more effective classroom teacher this year, and try the lottery again next year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For me, the key question is what exactly your chances are at Purple for 2nd grade. You say chances are "better" - what does that amount to numerically? You can look at the Tableau dashboards and see. If "better" is still like a 50-60% chance (or lower) I'd probably switch to Blue, and if Blue isn't manageable, be much more strategic about my lottery choices next year (there are solid safeties for 2nd grade that are well regarded, it's an easy year to switch). If, essentially, Blue IS one of those solid safeties and you're just picky, then yes, definitely switch to Blue. It may be the best you'll get and you need to make peace with that.

If your chances for Purple for 2nd grade is 80%+ or better for 2nd grade, I'd stick with Red and assume you switch next year.

(PS, I totally see why you aren't saying the names of the schools. I actually think for getting advice on your actual question from your perspective and priorities, which are what matters, the hypothetical is better - if you name the schools, it'll just devolve into boosters/haters of those particular schools).

Agree! This is a smart way to ask because it gets to the issues you actually care about. I'll go with the masses in advising sticking with Red, but I'd also suggest taking a look at short waitlists. https://apply.myschooldc.dc.gov/SecureApplication/ApplicantDefault.aspx

Depending on where you live and how far you'd be willing to commute, there are schools on that list with openings or likely openings that could be as good as you think purple would be that you could be into for next school year. In fact, there are definitely several schools on that list that I would keep a kid in through fourth or fifth grade based on what I know about them, and there are probably several more that are equally good and just not as familiar to me.

https://www.myschooldc.org/short-waitlists

This is the PP. Thank you for correcting my bad link!

OP, you may not see anything you like there or it may all be too far away, but figured it was worth sharing, just in case.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Don’t understand why you don’t just share the schools .

The Blue Charter = Two Rivers. Folks are feeling like it is on a better trajectory than the spiraling out of control of the last few years. Morale is better it seems. But it will take years to completely recover

Granted, they have new principals coming on board and a new ED. And the parents we know who stuck it out until this point are fleeing. It's too soon to say if it's on a better trajectory. Morale is on the floor.
Many classrooms at TRY didn't have a permanent teacher. At all. When we were there in Grade 4, my child's teacher went on paternity leave and they couldn't even manage to land a substitute.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would sit tight at Red and hope for Purple next year. There's no point in disrupting your kid for Blue if you don't have confidence that you'll like it enough to stay. The lottery gets easier as your child moves up grades. Blue seems like trading one set of problems for another.

+1
Also, "philosophy" might sound nice, but it doesn't matter if it's not being implemented because of bad administration or turnover or whatever.

+10000 "Philosophy" and "Pedagogy" matter to ECE parents. Then sh*t gets real and the shiny labels and word salad falls away and what you care about is whether your kid is getting a good education in a well managed classroom and building.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If blue is 2R, I would definitely not switch and especially not just for this year. There is so much turmoil there right now that this would be the worst year to try it out IMO.

2nd grade is a much more favorable time to try to lottery than 1st. I'd wait. Lots of pretty highly regarded DCPSes start having way more room then.

Care to provide data to back this up?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If blue is 2R, I would definitely not switch and especially not just for this year. There is so much turmoil there right now that this would be the worst year to try it out IMO.

2nd grade is a much more favorable time to try to lottery than 1st. I'd wait. Lots of pretty highly regarded DCPSes start having way more room then.

Why do the “highly regarded DCPSes” have more room after second?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If blue is 2R, I would definitely not switch and especially not just for this year. There is so much turmoil there right now that this would be the worst year to try it out IMO.

2nd grade is a much more favorable time to try to lottery than 1st. I'd wait. Lots of pretty highly regarded DCPSes start having way more room then.

Why do the “highly regarded DCPSes” have more room after second?

Because the allowable class size goes up.

[Anonymous]

OP here. Just wanted to note that this thread has successfully convinced me to stick with Red until we can get into Purple (or we move out of DC altogether, which is also on the table). I really appreciate the feedback, which has helped focus my attention on what we actually want and value and away from the waitlist number on Blue ticking down rapidly.

It is honestly a relief to have this clarity because it has helped me accept that we are likely staying at Red another year, and I needed to accept that so that I can figure out how to make that as good a situation as possible for DC. Focusing on the after-school situation, talking to some parents about the teaching cohort for the upcoming year and what we can expect in terms of curriculum, field trips, etc. This is what I needed to do -- make staying at Red real so that I can gameplan for it.

We'll lottery again next year and hopefully get into Purple, and if not that will give us about 6 months to move. That's manageable and it's a plan.

Thanks all! The lottery system in DC can really turn your head because there are many, many options but most of them aren't that great. I needed to get more practical and y'all have helped me do that. Happy Sunday!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If blue is 2R, I would definitely not switch and especially not just for this year. There is so much turmoil there right now that this would be the worst year to try it out IMO.

2nd grade is a much more favorable time to try to lottery than 1st. I'd wait. Lots of pretty highly regarded DCPSes start having way more room then.

Why do the “highly regarded DCPSes” have more room after second?

Because the allowable class size goes up.

It's also usually a much smaller pool of families vying for spots. Fewer families are willing to change schools at 2nd or 3rd grade than for K or 1st. So waitlists are often shorter, and move faster.

Also some well-regarded DCPS schools have a decent amount of attrition that is unrelated to people leaving for better schools. Schools on the Hill and near the embassies, for instance, just have more transient communities due to jobs. So you have years where there are suddenly 10 spots open in the 2nd grade cohort and they'll exhaust the waitlist of 25 to fill them. This is especially true on the Hill where people are less confident about MS feeds, because you see fewer people trying to lottery in at 2nd/3rd/4th than you do for schools that feed into Deal or Hardy, where a huge part of the draw is the feed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If blue is 2R, I would definitely not switch and especially not just for this year. There is so much turmoil there right now that this would be the worst year to try it out IMO.

2nd grade is a much more favorable time to try to lottery than 1st. I'd wait. Lots of pretty highly regarded DCPSes start having way more room then.

Why do the “highly regarded DCPSes” have more room after second?

Because the allowable class size goes up.

Say what now? Please name the in demand charters that increase class sizes in 2nd. I am aware of none that do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If blue is 2R, I would definitely not switch and especially not just for this year. There is so much turmoil there right now that this would be the worst year to try it out IMO.

2nd grade is a much more favorable time to try to lottery than 1st. I'd wait. Lots of pretty highly regarded DCPSes start having way more room then.

Why do the “highly regarded DCPSes” have more room after second?

Because the allowable class size goes up.

Say what now? Please name the in demand charters that increase class sizes in 2nd. I am aware of none that do.

The prior comments were about DCPSs.

I do know people who have gotten into very highly regarded DCPS schools at 2nd/3rd after striking out in ECE. I think the pool of families looking to switch schools at that point is smaller.

[Anonymous]

We’re in a similar situation, but for second. We’re working with the admin at our current school for a better placement (cohort and teachers) for next year, and not switching unless we get into Purple.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If blue is 2R, I would definitely not switch and especially not just for this year. There is so much turmoil there right now that this would be the worst year to try it out IMO.

2nd grade is a much more favorable time to try to lottery than 1st. I'd wait. Lots of pretty highly regarded DCPSes start having way more room then.

Why do the “highly regarded DCPSes” have more room after second?

Because the allowable class size goes up.

Say what now? Please name the in demand charters that increase class sizes in 2nd. I am aware of none that do.

The prior comments were about DCPSs.

I do know people who have gotten into very highly regarded DCPS schools at 2nd/3rd after striking out in ECE. I think the pool of families looking to switch schools at that point is smaller.

The class size is in the WTU agreement.