Lottery/school choice hypothetical

[Anonymous]

I wouldn't switch if it's a Montessori or a language immersion (unless Purple is too) because it will take time to adjust and for what end? Otherwise, if your kid is pretty adaptable you could try it, but I probably wouldn't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here.

Red is IB, so yes, we could go back later if we needed to. But it's really hard to imagine that -- things would have to go very poorly somewhere else to make that worthwhile. I think we'd move before doing that.

Current grade is 1st. So we've been at red for 3 years now, though the first was a Covid year. PK 3 was Covid, PK4 was great, K was not, but really our concerns are larger than classroom experience -- it has to do with the direction of the school, the administration, recent teacher losses (including the three most beloved teachers at the school, and only one to retirement), concerning attrition among IB parents, aftercare issues, etc.

I wonder if I actually know what school you are talking about! If it is... stick it out for 1st. the 1st grade teachers are both EXCELLENT and K is the weakest grade at the school. Even aftercare gets a bit better.

If not I dunno. Be very very wary of "philosophy." it's mostly all BS. look at teacher quality first and foremost. If I were you, I would stay at Red and try to eventually get into the best DCPS I could.

[Anonymous]

I would probably give red another year (especially if its a much better commute). Almost every school is having some post-pandemic retention/hiring issues recently. There are almost always at most schools some families who move away, go private, switch schools between preK4-2nd (and after 4th) too.

[Anonymous]

If blue is 2R, I would definitely not switch and especially not just for this year. There is so much turmoil there right now that this would be the worst year to try it out IMO.

2nd grade is a much more favorable time to try to lottery than 1st. I'd wait. Lots of pretty highly regarded DCPSes start having way more room then.

[Anonymous]

^^ I would add that if the charter school in question isn't 2R, but is instead an immersion or Montessori, then I DEFINITELY wouldn't switch. By the time your kid started getting remotely comfortable with the school's version of that philosophy, you'd be switching again.

[Anonymous]

Why would Blue not be SSMA?

Purple is ITDS, or maybe it's a better DCPS?

Or maybe Red is Cleveland, Blue is MV, and Purple is something else like Stokes or DCB or Bancroft or Oyster.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why would Blue not be SSMA?

Purple is ITDS, or maybe it's a better DCPS?

Or maybe Red is Cleveland, Blue is MV, and Purple is something else like Stokes or DCB or Bancroft or Oyster.

SSMA is not just currently in turmoil. It is a sinking ship and has been for awhile. That sounds way more like 2R or MV. I feel like the immersion aspect would have been mentioned/is very relevant if this was MV though. Hence my guess that it's 2R. Lee is also a possibility.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would Blue not be SSMA?

Purple is ITDS, or maybe it's a better DCPS?

Or maybe Red is Cleveland, Blue is MV, and Purple is something else like Stokes or DCB or Bancroft or Oyster.

SSMA is not just currently in turmoil. It is a sinking ship and has been for awhile. That sounds way more like 2R or MV. I feel like the immersion aspect would have been mentioned/is very relevant if this was MV though. Hence my guess that it's 2R. Lee is also a possibility.

Or Blue is CMI

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why would Blue not be SSMA?

Purple is ITDS, or maybe it's a better DCPS?

Or maybe Red is Cleveland, Blue is MV, and Purple is something else like Stokes or DCB or Bancroft or Oyster.

This is EXACTLY our colors. For 3rd grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would Blue not be SSMA?

Purple is ITDS, or maybe it's a better DCPS?

Or maybe Red is Cleveland, Blue is MV, and Purple is something else like Stokes or DCB or Bancroft or Oyster.

SSMA is not just currently in turmoil. It is a sinking ship and has been for awhile. That sounds way more like 2R or MV. I feel like the immersion aspect would have been mentioned/is very relevant if this was MV though. Hence my guess that it's 2R. Lee is also a possibility.

Or Blue is CMI

Yes. Red is a DCPS up there, Blue is CMI, and Purple is Shepherd.

[Anonymous]

If Red is your IB, you could keep all your options open by accepting Blue and seeing what you have available closer to the first day of school. But that’s just kicking the can. Were I you, I would decline Blue and plan to stay at Red this year and start thinking about where you would move in case you still don’t like Red and get another bad number next year so Purple doesn’t work out. That way, Red gets a chance to improve, you could still move to Purple if you luck out before count day, and you would have your lottery results for next year in plenty of time to plan your move - or take the spot you get at Purple if your number is good.

Blue is right out.

[Anonymous]

For me, the key question is what exactly your chances are at Purple for 2nd grade. You say chances are "better" - what does that amount to numerically? You can look at the Tableau dashboards and see. If "better" is still like a 50-60% chance (or lower) I'd probably switch to Blue, and if Blue isn't manageable, be much more strategic about my lottery choices next year (there are solid safeties for 2nd grade that are well regarded, it's an easy year to switch). If, essentially, Blue IS one of those solid safeties and you're just picky, then yes, definitely switch to Blue. It may be the best you'll get and you need to make peace with that.

If your chances for Purple for 2nd grade is 80%+ or better for 2nd grade, I'd stick with Red and assume you switch next year.

(PS, I totally see why you aren't saying the names of the schools. I actually think for getting advice on your actual question from your perspective and priorities, which are what matters, the hypothetical is better - if you name the schools, it'll just devolve into boosters/haters of those particular schools).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For me, the key question is what exactly your chances are at Purple for 2nd grade. You say chances are "better" - what does that amount to numerically? You can look at the Tableau dashboards and see. If "better" is still like a 50-60% chance (or lower) I'd probably switch to Blue, and if Blue isn't manageable, be much more strategic about my lottery choices next year (there are solid safeties for 2nd grade that are well regarded, it's an easy year to switch). If, essentially, Blue IS one of those solid safeties and you're just picky, then yes, definitely switch to Blue. It may be the best you'll get and you need to make peace with that.

If your chances for Purple for 2nd grade is 80%+ or better for 2nd grade, I'd stick with Red and assume you switch next year.

(PS, I totally see why you aren't saying the names of the schools. I actually think for getting advice on your actual question from your perspective and priorities, which are what matters, the hypothetical is better - if you name the schools, it'll just devolve into boosters/haters of those particular schools).

I also think its relevant how much farther away Blue is from you as compared to Red. If you've only ever gone to your IB, and have never had to think about a commute, make sure you factor that in. Assuming Blue is a noticeably different commute for you than Red, that's a solid point in Red's favor for one more year.

[Anonymous]

You are not happy with red, go to blue, it shouldn’t be worst than what you have experienced so far.

Also, what you know about blue is from talking to people or reading dcum? Take everything that you read here with a grain of salt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I would sit tight at Red and hope for Purple next year. There's no point in disrupting your kid for Blue if you don't have confidence that you'll like it enough to stay. The lottery gets easier as your child moves up grades. Blue seems like trading one set of problems for another.

This for me too