Data show people are fleeing MoCo for Frederick

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I look around me and there is no one moving. Everyone has a great interest rate and don't want to let go of that. Besides, if we're going to make a move because we no longer like MoCo, it's not going to be to Frederick, rather it would be out of state. Frederick, especially Urbana, is basically MoCo light.

MONTGOMERY COUNTY NORTH

Yep, Urbana is basically north MoCo.

Homes are still somewhat affordable in Frederick, but they are catching up in terms of home prices. They are more like Clarksburg than north Frederick.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I look around me and there is no one moving. Everyone has a great interest rate and don't want to let go of that. Besides, if we're going to make a move because we no longer like MoCo, it's not going to be to Frederick, rather it would be out of state. Frederick, especially Urbana, is basically MoCo light.

MONTGOMERY COUNTY NORTH

Yep, Urbana is basically north MoCo.

Homes are still somewhat affordable in Frederick, but they are catching up in terms of home prices. They are more like Clarksburg than north Frederick.

Yes..and the Urbana and Oakdale clusters are the only ones we would consider..those places are just as or more expensive than parts of MoCo. I've heard too many overt racial incidents in the other FCPS school clusters to even consider them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think it's more about being priced out honestly. There are parts of MoCo that doesn't have much crime, but it's more expensive. And the better schools are also in the more expensive areas.

I also moved out of a hcol area out west because we got priced out. So, I moved to a "cheaper" area like MoCo for the more affordable home prices and schools.

As for taxes, Frederick county tax is very similar to MoCo tax.

I thought about moving to Frederick when I retire only because the housing is cheaper.

Us too, we ended up moving to eastern MoCo because it's cheaper!

This. Priced out doesn't mean priced out; to MC and UMC white people it often means that the house available to them comes with schools that have high FARMS. If a family is making enough to afford a home that costs $800K, likely they are educated professionals and, whether they will admit it or not, are not looking to have a school with 40% FARMS or higher come with their $800K house.

We too have moved northward as circumstances have changed--when we were just married we lived in Silver Spring, when kids were born and we needed more space we moved to Gaithersburg, and when the kids entered school and with telework we moved to Howard County.

This is 100% true. We have a HHI of about 320k and our 850k housing budget just didn’t go far enough in MoCo. The houses in our budget in the strongest school clusters were small and outdated, and the ones that were larger (we were looking for 2500-3000 sq ft) and didn’t require a lot of work were in school clusters that we weren’t thrilled with. We didn’t want to compromise on the house or schooling, and given our income and budget we knew there were places where we wouldn’t have to, so we moved.

[Anonymous]

The kind of people that live in Chevy Chase are not the kind of people who are moving to Frederick county. It is more the type of people who might live in Gaithersburg or Germantown.

To be honest, I don’t see this as a major concern. It doesn’t surprise me that the further out vounties are growing more rapidly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The kind of people that live in Chevy Chase are not the kind of people who are moving to Frederick county. It is more the type of people who might live in Gaithersburg or Germantown.

To be honest, I don’t see this as a major concern. It doesn’t surprise me that the further out vounties are growing more rapidly.

It becomes a concern when the medium-high earners move out. That leaves the super wealthy, mostly in Potomac/Chevy Chase, and the working poor/poor, mostly SS/Wheaton/Gaithersburg/Germantown behind. It hurts the tax base. That, coupled with county government's mismanaging tax dollars, is a disaster just waiting to occur.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:ok, but there are tons of new builds around me. If people are fleeing MoCo, who is going to rent/buy all those new developments?

I've lived in Rockville for 10 years, and even in the past 10 years the growth has been crazy - new builds everywhere.

New builds as in apartments? Or townhomes? Demand still outstrips supply so think there will still be demand for those. But a lot of families who want to buy an entry-level SFH are simply getting priced out. Small houses in my so-so silver spring neighborhood are selling for well over $500k- and they need work! When people complain on here about not being able to afford to buy in the DMV, common advice is to buy further out. So people are. The increase in telework flexibility and remote work has made it easier for many to do so.

[Anonymous]

Pagnucco breaks down some of the migration trends here, which are interesting. I suspect a significant driver of those leaving are retirees choosing to live elsewhere.

https://montgomeryperspective.com/2023/04/03/moco-loses-population-two-years-in-a-row/

[Anonymous]

ModeratelyMoco wrote:After County Exec Elrich posted a tweet saying the population is actually growing, we decided to take a closer look at the population trends in Montgomery County, Frederick County and the state with full charts based on actual U.S. Census data.

https://moderatelymoco.com/cracking-the-mystery-of-montgomery-countys-population-from-boom-to-bust/



Conclusion:
"Yes, Montgomery County population has shrank over the last 3 years and Frederick County has had tremendous growth.

The County Executive quoted a website that while it was the top hit on Google, does not appear to be using actual U.S. Census data and is not accurate according to U.S. Government sources."

Of course that slide in no way validates OP’s premise that people are moving FROM MoCo TO Frederick…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pagnucco breaks down some of the migration trends here, which are interesting. I suspect a significant driver of those leaving are retirees choosing to live elsewhere.

https://montgomeryperspective.com/2023/04/03/moco-loses-population-two-years-in-a-row/

Arlington Fairfax and DC also lost at least 1%. So, it seems housing costs are the likely reason.

Frederick Co. is turning into a sea of rolling hills covered in townhouses much like Clarksburg. They have been very friendly to developers and not doing great job building up schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

ModeratelyMoco wrote:After County Exec Elrich posted a tweet saying the population is actually growing, we decided to take a closer look at the population trends in Montgomery County, Frederick County and the state with full charts based on actual U.S. Census data.

https://moderatelymoco.com/cracking-the-mystery-of-montgomery-countys-population-from-boom-to-bust/



Conclusion:
"Yes, Montgomery County population has shrank over the last 3 years and Frederick County has had tremendous growth.

The County Executive quoted a website that while it was the top hit on Google, does not appear to be using actual U.S. Census data and is not accurate according to U.S. Government sources."

Of course that slide in no way validates OP’s premise that people are moving FROM MoCo TO Frederick…

Exactly..and we are talking about de minimis numbers.

[Anonymous]

It's hilarious to tie these demographic changes to politics when it's clear it's about COVID and WFH/hybrid work. I mean come on people, you're smarter than this. Even my Manhattan obsessed college buddy who used to constantly bash the "bridge and tunnel" crowd now lives in rural New England.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

ModeratelyMoco wrote:After County Exec Elrich posted a tweet saying the population is actually growing, we decided to take a closer look at the population trends in Montgomery County, Frederick County and the state with full charts based on actual U.S. Census data.

https://moderatelymoco.com/cracking-the-mystery-of-montgomery-countys-population-from-boom-to-bust/



Conclusion:
"Yes, Montgomery County population has shrank over the last 3 years and Frederick County has had tremendous growth.

The County Executive quoted a website that while it was the top hit on Google, does not appear to be using actual U.S. Census data and is not accurate according to U.S. Government sources."

Of course that slide in no way validates OP’s premise that people are moving FROM MoCo TO Frederick…

Exactly..and we are talking about de minimis numbers.

Yes, I didn't see any data showing the migration of people from MoCo to Frederick.. All I see is that Frederick gained residents and MoCo lost some, but it doesn't mean MoCo folks are going to Frederick. Sure, there were 3 people they interviewed but that doesn't prove anything. 2 of the people were old- one had been living in Frederick for 27 years; and one guy moved from Montgomery Village. Also, other counties (even VA) lost people, and not to mention they're looking at a trend over the past 3 years.. I guess they're not considering covid, WFH, and how a bunch of people moved during that timeframe? Such bad analysis and terrible reporting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

ModeratelyMoco wrote:After County Exec Elrich posted a tweet saying the population is actually growing, we decided to take a closer look at the population trends in Montgomery County, Frederick County and the state with full charts based on actual U.S. Census data.

https://moderatelymoco.com/cracking-the-mystery-of-montgomery-countys-population-from-boom-to-bust/



Conclusion:
"Yes, Montgomery County population has shrank over the last 3 years and Frederick County has had tremendous growth.

The County Executive quoted a website that while it was the top hit on Google, does not appear to be using actual U.S. Census data and is not accurate according to U.S. Government sources."

Of course that slide in no way validates OP’s premise that people are moving FROM MoCo TO Frederick…

Exactly..and we are talking about de minimis numbers.

Yes, I didn't see any data showing the migration of people from MoCo to Frederick.. All I see is that Frederick gained residents and MoCo lost some, but it doesn't mean MoCo folks are going to Frederick. Sure, there were 3 people they interviewed but that doesn't prove anything. 2 of the people were old- one had been living in Frederick for 27 years; and one guy moved from Montgomery Village. Also, other counties (even VA) lost people, and not to mention they're looking at a trend over the past 3 years.. I guess they're not considering covid, WFH, and how a bunch of people moved during that timeframe? Such bad analysis and terrible reporting.

Montgomery County lost residents, rents still increased, and the county added rental units. Those three facts are undeniable. It’s almost as if housing prices aren’t all about simple supply and demand, and maybe it’s not as simple as “just build more housing.” (Even though we should definitely build more housing)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Funny how facts get MoCoites in a tizzy.

The county is hemorrhaging those with means while those moving in are poorer and poorer. Simultaneously, the number of retirees is exploding while those in their prime earning years are decreasing. The tax base is crumbling. School quality keeps circling the drain while crime and taxes keep increasing. The writing is on the wall.

That’s funny - every home near me is still selling for way over ask in a day or two, our property values are higher than ever, downtown Bethesda is constantly growing and becoming a fantastic urban zone.

Where is this mass exodus of those with “means”?

Potomac, CC, Bethesda are all still booming.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Funny how facts get MoCoites in a tizzy.

The county is hemorrhaging those with means while those moving in are poorer and poorer. Simultaneously, the number of retirees is exploding while those in their prime earning years are decreasing. The tax base is crumbling. School quality keeps circling the drain while crime and taxes keep increasing. The writing is on the wall.

That’s funny - every home near me is still selling for way over ask in a day or two, our property values are higher than ever, downtown Bethesda is constantly growing and becoming a fantastic urban zone.

Where is this mass exodus of those with “means”?

Potomac, CC, Bethesda are all still booming.

+1

Maybe fewer illegal multifamily rentals?