What is MoCo's political future?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Due to self-sorting, with more centrists fleeing to Fairfax, Frederick and Howard, as well as the fact that way too many MoCoites are way too online and getting fed pretty extreme leftism, the future is going to look a lot like some combination of Portland and Baltimore. The rich areas stay rich but get smaller, the middle class and poor areas get poorer, but there’s microbrew and bike lanes!

Agree with this for the most part. Certainly the rich areas will stay rich, just shrink. Poor areas will stay poor and grow. Middle class areas will continue to get squeezed out. You can't be so anti-business and succeed. The world is too small now. Businesses can start and be run from anywhere with the technology of today. Moco has lost the built-in advantage of being "in-close" and it is never coming back at scale.

MoCo relies entirely in govt jobs too. There is a big push to decentralize the govt and create permanent WFH positions. Who needs to move in expensive MoCo with high taxes anymore if you don't need to be near DC for a govt job? Schools aren't good anymore. Crime is up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Due to self-sorting, with more centrists fleeing to Fairfax, Frederick and Howard, as well as the fact that way too many MoCoites are way too online and getting fed pretty extreme leftism, the future is going to look a lot like some combination of Portland and Baltimore. The rich areas stay rich but get smaller, the middle class and poor areas get poorer, but there’s microbrew and bike lanes!

Agree with this for the most part. Certainly the rich areas will stay rich, just shrink. Poor areas will stay poor and grow. Middle class areas will continue to get squeezed out. You can't be so anti-business and succeed. The world is too small now. Businesses can start and be run from anywhere with the technology of today. Moco has lost the built-in advantage of being "in-close" and it is never coming back at scale.

MoCo relies entirely in govt jobs too. There is a big push to decentralize the govt and create permanent WFH positions. Who needs to move in expensive MoCo with high taxes anymore if you don't need to be near DC for a govt job? Schools aren't good anymore. Crime is up.

That’s the thing. It’s worthwhile to stay and WFH as a Fed if the schools were good. But if they’re not - and the quality is undeniably declining rapidly - there is just zero rationale. If you didn’t even want to leave the area you could just move to Howard Co and save on housing and get access to much better schools. And of course those same opportunities exist all over the country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When guys like Friedsen and Katz are the closest thing reseembling moderates on the council- you have your answer already.

David Blair might have helped in a "goalie" sense, but the train is pretty far down the tracks now, and the answer is option A that the OP put out.

Those with means will vote with their feet.

I already moved to Howard- plenty of the progressive values we like, but way less of the BS. And schools and services that are still good, and no crime issues.

And yet here you still are, posting about Montgomery County like you just can't quit it.

For real. I think some of these people living in Howard just wish they were still in Montgomery. It's like there's some sort of a inferiority complex. They wish they were MoCo but they aren't. MoCo is a much larger county population and importance wise. Howard is kind of provincial. It's got 300k people. The City of Rockville has 20% of the population of all of Howard County. They're basically wishing they were MoCo. Why else would they constantly talk about us? It's so weird too because no one in MoCo hardly ever speaking about Howard but we live rent free in their heads.

This

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More to the left. People start fleeing high taxes, rising crime, and declining schools. Zero economic growth as usual as high taxes, insane amounts of red tape to start a business continue, and the hostile environment in MoCo towards business gets worse. The only solution MoCo pols will have for an eroding tax base and declining revenue will e to keep raising taxes, which will keep encouraging people to leave even faster and kick off an irreparable death spiral.

Basically, the Baltimoreification of MoCo has already been started and will never stop. Ironically, when things decline due to crap policies, the tendency is to get even more stubborn and triple down on the same failed strategies even harder. MoCo is doomed to a far left decimation of public safety, quality in schools, SFH owner's rights, and tax burden.

And we all know what "the Baltimoreification of MoCo" means!!!!!

The more the people who wish it were still 1975 in Montgomery County move away from Montgomery County, the happier everyone will be.

Yes, we know it means massive tax hikes, a huge number of fleeing businesses and population. Just like what happened in the Baltimore in the 90s. MoCo is copying Baltimore from the 90s to a T.

What "massive tax hikes" in Baltimore in the 1990s?

Baltimore started losing businesses and population after 1950, thanks to federal policies that subsidized suburbanization for white people - plus block-busting, of course.

Yeah, that's because Baltimore increased taxes 20+ times over that time period, which caused a lot of business and population loss. That's why a Baltimore resident currently pays the same amount of total property tax on a home only worth $400-500k as the total amount of property tax rich people in $1M+ homes in Bethesda pay. MoCo keeps raising taxes and is on the path to becoming Baltimore.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More to the left. People start fleeing high taxes, rising crime, and declining schools. Zero economic growth as usual as high taxes, insane amounts of red tape to start a business continue, and the hostile environment in MoCo towards business gets worse. The only solution MoCo pols will have for an eroding tax base and declining revenue will e to keep raising taxes, which will keep encouraging people to leave even faster and kick off an irreparable death spiral.

Basically, the Baltimoreification of MoCo has already been started and will never stop. Ironically, when things decline due to crap policies, the tendency is to get even more stubborn and triple down on the same failed strategies even harder. MoCo is doomed to a far left decimation of public safety, quality in schools, SFH owner's rights, and tax burden.

And we all know what "the Baltimoreification of MoCo" means!!!!!

The more the people who wish it were still 1975 in Montgomery County move away from Montgomery County, the happier everyone will be.

Yes, we know it means massive tax hikes, a huge number of fleeing businesses and population. Just like what happened in the Baltimore in the 90s. MoCo is copying Baltimore from the 90s to a T.

What "massive tax hikes" in Baltimore in the 1990s?

Baltimore started losing businesses and population after 1950, thanks to federal policies that subsidized suburbanization for white people - plus block-busting, of course.

Yeah, that's because Baltimore increased taxes 20+ times over that time period, which caused a lot of business and population loss. That's why a Baltimore resident currently pays the same amount of total property tax on a home only worth $400-500k as the total amount of property tax rich people in $1M+ homes in Bethesda pay. MoCo keeps raising taxes and is on the path to becoming Baltimore.

What "massive tax hikes" in Baltimore in the 1990s?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Due to self-sorting, with more centrists fleeing to Fairfax, Frederick and Howard, as well as the fact that way too many MoCoites are way too online and getting fed pretty extreme leftism, the future is going to look a lot like some combination of Portland and Baltimore. The rich areas stay rich but get smaller, the middle class and poor areas get poorer, but there’s microbrew and bike lanes!

Posted by a person who thinks Portland is what you see on Portlandia, and Baltimore is what you see on The Wire.

When people talk about the Wire in any context about about Baltimore it’s always a sure sign they don’t know sh*t about the city.

Worked in downtown Baltimore for 10 years...it is closer to the Wire than not.

There are many Baltimores. It’s a city of incongruous neighborhoods that’s dominated by “the Wire” part but not defined by it. The other parts are very, very small though.

Not sure defending Baltimore is the hill,to die on. It’s a s-show. Not safe. City gov is useless. Limited tax base. Anti-business and growth. Feel bad for those that are stuck there.

[Anonymous]

Affluent boomers are dying or retiring to less costly areas. Our tax base is shrinking. And plenty of newcomers have cash-based businesses that aren’t paying proper taxes.

People historically stayed for the schools, but the schools are in decline.

Crime feels like it’s getting worse, and perception matters.

Hope someone can stop the decline and get things back on track.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Affluent boomers are dying or retiring to less costly areas. Our tax base is shrinking. And plenty of newcomers have cash-based businesses that aren’t paying proper taxes.

People historically stayed for the schools, but the schools are in decline.

Crime feels like it’s getting worse, and perception matters.

Hope someone can stop the decline and get things back on track.

Very true. I can't remember where I saw it, but there was a demographics study done for MoCo with projections out to 2050 or so. MoCo is aging rapidly. The number of workers in their prime earning years is going to start falling by 2030, while the number of old boomers and retirees in the county is skyrocketing. It means exactly what you point out - that the tax base in MoCo is eroding. They're going to have to keep increasing taxes, basically. They can't grow economically, somewhere is all of the money going to come from to feed all of the programs and schools MoCo holds so dearly if the number of workers being taxed with higher incomes keeps decreasing? They'll just tax those who make incomes a lot more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What MoCo hates to admit is that even PG now creates more jobs than MoCo. Race has nothing to do with the valid points above. It has everything to do with garbage leadership, politics, and stupid voters who keep voting for the same.

Rising taxes will be used to plug budget holes, because the county can't grow economically. People will flee, which means the county will keep raising property and income taxes so that their credit rating won't decline. Eventually they won't be able to raise taxes anymore and the next hit will be a decline in credit rating. Borrowing costs skyrocket and it is a never ending spiral down.

It actually is about race. White people are the ones moving far to the left, not POC. PG isn't voting in white progressives so it's no surprise PG is laying a foundation for business growth and middle class housing

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What MoCo hates to admit is that even PG now creates more jobs than MoCo. Race has nothing to do with the valid points above. It has everything to do with garbage leadership, politics, and stupid voters who keep voting for the same.

Rising taxes will be used to plug budget holes, because the county can't grow economically. People will flee, which means the county will keep raising property and income taxes so that their credit rating won't decline. Eventually they won't be able to raise taxes anymore and the next hit will be a decline in credit rating. Borrowing costs skyrocket and it is a never ending spiral down.

It actually is about race. White people are the ones moving far to the left, not POC. PG isn't voting in white progressives so it's no surprise PG is laying a foundation for business growth and middle class housing

Hence my post about PG overtaking MoCo in about 10 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What MoCo hates to admit is that even PG now creates more jobs than MoCo. Race has nothing to do with the valid points above. It has everything to do with garbage leadership, politics, and stupid voters who keep voting for the same.

Rising taxes will be used to plug budget holes, because the county can't grow economically. People will flee, which means the county will keep raising property and income taxes so that their credit rating won't decline. Eventually they won't be able to raise taxes anymore and the next hit will be a decline in credit rating. Borrowing costs skyrocket and it is a never ending spiral down.

It actually is about race. White people are the ones moving far to the left, not POC. PG isn't voting in white progressives so it's no surprise PG is laying a foundation for business growth and middle class housing

That’s funny, because Elrich won the Black and Latino precinct vote. Blair won the White and Asian vote.
https://montgomeryperspective.com/2022/12/27/the-county-executive-primary-part-six/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What MoCo hates to admit is that even PG now creates more jobs than MoCo. Race has nothing to do with the valid points above. It has everything to do with garbage leadership, politics, and stupid voters who keep voting for the same.

Rising taxes will be used to plug budget holes, because the county can't grow economically. People will flee, which means the county will keep raising property and income taxes so that their credit rating won't decline. Eventually they won't be able to raise taxes anymore and the next hit will be a decline in credit rating. Borrowing costs skyrocket and it is a never ending spiral down.

It actually is about race. White people are the ones moving far to the left, not POC. PG isn't voting in white progressives so it's no surprise PG is laying a foundation for business growth and middle class housing

That’s funny, because Elrich won the Black and Latino precinct vote. Blair won the White and Asian vote.
https://montgomeryperspective.com/2022/12/27/the-county-executive-primary-part-six/

People presume that Blacks and Latinos hold the same views as these progressive white liberals. They are more commonly economic left and social moderates. The white UMC progressives are typically economic moderates and social left and that was Reiner’s base. Economic and social moderates were Blair’s base.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What MoCo hates to admit is that even PG now creates more jobs than MoCo. Race has nothing to do with the valid points above. It has everything to do with garbage leadership, politics, and stupid voters who keep voting for the same.

Rising taxes will be used to plug budget holes, because the county can't grow economically. People will flee, which means the county will keep raising property and income taxes so that their credit rating won't decline. Eventually they won't be able to raise taxes anymore and the next hit will be a decline in credit rating. Borrowing costs skyrocket and it is a never ending spiral down.

It actually is about race. White people are the ones moving far to the left, not POC. PG isn't voting in white progressives so it's no surprise PG is laying a foundation for business growth and middle class housing

That’s funny, because Elrich won the Black and Latino precinct vote. Blair won the White and Asian vote.
https://montgomeryperspective.com/2022/12/27/the-county-executive-primary-part-six/

People presume that Blacks and Latinos hold the same views as these progressive white liberals. They are more commonly economic left and social moderates. The white UMC progressives are typically economic moderates and social left and that was Reiner’s base. Economic and social moderates were Blair’s base.

People apparently make a lot of stereotypical generalizations unsupported by data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What MoCo hates to admit is that even PG now creates more jobs than MoCo. Race has nothing to do with the valid points above. It has everything to do with garbage leadership, politics, and stupid voters who keep voting for the same.

Rising taxes will be used to plug budget holes, because the county can't grow economically. People will flee, which means the county will keep raising property and income taxes so that their credit rating won't decline. Eventually they won't be able to raise taxes anymore and the next hit will be a decline in credit rating. Borrowing costs skyrocket and it is a never ending spiral down.

It actually is about race. White people are the ones moving far to the left, not POC. PG isn't voting in white progressives so it's no surprise PG is laying a foundation for business growth and middle class housing

That’s funny, because Elrich won the Black and Latino precinct vote. Blair won the White and Asian vote.
https://montgomeryperspective.com/2022/12/27/the-county-executive-primary-part-six/

People presume that Blacks and Latinos hold the same views as these progressive white liberals. They are more commonly economic left and social moderates. The white UMC progressives are typically economic moderates and social left and that was Reiner’s base. Economic and social moderates were Blair’s base.

You mean YIMBY Twitter is predominantly millennial white men? You don’t say.

Elrich’s base is interesting. A mix of contrarian leftists, old timer hippies, and working class POC.
Like him or not, Elrich really knows how to reach his community. I know that a lot of the Ethiopian and Salvadoran immigrant businesses support him because he talks with them directly rather than through some interest group.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What MoCo hates to admit is that even PG now creates more jobs than MoCo. Race has nothing to do with the valid points above. It has everything to do with garbage leadership, politics, and stupid voters who keep voting for the same.

Rising taxes will be used to plug budget holes, because the county can't grow economically. People will flee, which means the county will keep raising property and income taxes so that their credit rating won't decline. Eventually they won't be able to raise taxes anymore and the next hit will be a decline in credit rating. Borrowing costs skyrocket and it is a never ending spiral down.

It actually is about race. White people are the ones moving far to the left, not POC. PG isn't voting in white progressives so it's no surprise PG is laying a foundation for business growth and middle class housing

That’s funny, because Elrich won the Black and Latino precinct vote. Blair won the White and Asian vote.
https://montgomeryperspective.com/2022/12/27/the-county-executive-primary-part-six/

People presume that Blacks and Latinos hold the same views as these progressive white liberals. They are more commonly economic left and social moderates. The white UMC progressives are typically economic moderates and social left and that was Reiner’s base. Economic and social moderates were Blair’s base.

You mean YIMBY Twitter is predominantly millennial white men? You don’t say.

Elrich’s base is interesting. A mix of contrarian leftists, old timer hippies, and working class POC.
Like him or not, Elrich really knows how to reach his community. I know that a lot of the Ethiopian and Salvadoran immigrant businesses support him because he talks with them directly rather than through some interest group.

Elrich has spent his political career supporting community groups in whatever they might want. It doesn't make for coherent policies, but it does make for a broad and varied base of very loyal supporters.