APS down 4% enrollment, FCPS down 5%

[Anonymous]

Everyone I know who left for private isn’t returning.

[Anonymous]

APS is actually -9.2% (-2,742 students) from what they were just predicting in April 2021 to be the enrollment for this fall.

The 4% actual enrollment decline varies so much from the projected enrollment decline because the much smaller older classes are being replaced by much larger younger classes, as has been going on for years (Arlington's population has been growing at a 14.9% rate from 2010 to 2020 vs. 6.3% in Fairfax). In addition, those "larger" younger classes are actually much smaller than what they were before the pandemic (from June 2020, PK - 24%, K -11.6% and 1st - 9.1%).

As for kids who were enrolled who aren't coming back, if you take a look at the cohort of kids in Grades K-6 in June 2020 and compare them now in Grades 2-8, those cohorts' enrollment is down 9.7%.

[Anonymous]

Between this thread and the likelihood of universal pre-K, why play with boundaries at all right now? Wait a minute to see what bigger shifts are likely…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Between this thread and the likelihood of universal pre-K, why play with boundaries at all right now? Wait a minute to see what bigger shifts are likely…

Because it’s fall and that’s what APS does in the fall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Between this thread and the likelihood of universal pre-K, why play with boundaries at all right now? Wait a minute to see what bigger shifts are likely…

Good luck paying teachers with half empty classrooms. Imagine a restaurant that committed to five years of losses without a change to employees. It doesn’t exist.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Between this thread and the likelihood of universal pre-K, why play with boundaries at all right now? Wait a minute to see what bigger shifts are likely…

Good luck paying teachers with half empty classrooms. Imagine a restaurant that committed to five years of losses without a change to employees. It doesn’t exist.

There are still so many openings across counties that this won’t be an issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Everyone I know who left for private isn’t returning.

Fair enough. Takes an outside perspective to r es luxe how much it sucked.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Between this thread and the likelihood of universal pre-K, why play with boundaries at all right now? Wait a minute to see what bigger shifts are likely…

Good luck paying teachers with half empty classrooms. Imagine a restaurant that committed to five years of losses without a change to employees. It doesn’t exist.

Im a mediocre teacher riding the status quo. 13 days off paid, plus holidays and health benefits. I’m no Rich Bezos but I’m sure as hell not draining my soul away in a cubicle or some crap.

[Anonymous]

This must vary widely by school. We are Fairfax residents and our pyramid added more students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This must vary widely by school. We are Fairfax residents and our pyramid added more students.

I believe that's true. The decline in 2021 was relatively small.


Sep 2019/June 2020 189010/189852
Sep 2020/June 2021 180151/179741
Sep 2021/June 2022 178595/?

Check out Vienna Elementary - very high SES population, decent number of SAHMs willing to homeschool, lots of local privates for the non-homeschoolers. Huge decline in the number of students:

Sep 2019 448
Sep 2020 380
Sep 2021 352

Here's Fox Mill ES, showing a rebound to almost the level of 2019. They've got good demographics (though not as upper class as Vienna), an immersion program, and handled distance learning really well:

Sep 2019 598
Sep 2020 544
Sep 2021 582

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://sungazette.news/arlington-school-enrollment-still-well-below-pre-covid-figure/

State enrollment shows APS declined 4%, FCPS declined 5%, since the beginning of the pandemic. That’s somewhat even more remarkable given some Fairfax zip codes were among the most active for sales last year. National average was 3%, that includes states and districts that stayed shut for a year, and those that returned last summer. Looking for ACPS exact losses but they’re down too.

In other words, coronavirus school closures and losses are likely permanent. If they didn’t come back in August/September, don’t expect them to be back next year.

Maybe there is a demographic dividend in 5-7 years as (existing) families who moved to the suburbs, enroll, although births also declined in 2020-2021, so that’s probably another 1% loss assuming everything returns to normal today.

But districts still need to make payroll, and more specifically don’t be surprised if the new elementary school teacher, losses her job. For other parts of the country, teachers lost typically exit the system and don’t come back. Thanks unions and their Democrat lackeys who repeatedly refused to reopen. Always winning and doing what’s best for the children.

Except the baby boom peaked already and these declines were already forecasted years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://sungazette.news/arlington-school-enrollment-still-well-below-pre-covid-figure/

State enrollment shows APS declined 4%, FCPS declined 5%, since the beginning of the pandemic. That’s somewhat even more remarkable given some Fairfax zip codes were among the most active for sales last year. National average was 3%, that includes states and districts that stayed shut for a year, and those that returned last summer. Looking for ACPS exact losses but they’re down too.

In other words, coronavirus school closures and losses are likely permanent. If they didn’t come back in August/September, don’t expect them to be back next year.

Maybe there is a demographic dividend in 5-7 years as (existing) families who moved to the suburbs, enroll, although births also declined in 2020-2021, so that’s probably another 1% loss assuming everything returns to normal today.

But districts still need to make payroll, and more specifically don’t be surprised if the new elementary school teacher, losses her job. For other parts of the country, teachers lost typically exit the system and don’t come back. Thanks unions and their Democrat lackeys who repeatedly refused to reopen. Always winning and doing what’s best for the children.

Except the baby boom peaked already and these declines were already forecasted years ago.

No. This 4-5% in one year is at least 4x or 5x normal decline. A 1% loss annually is considered high and typically results in school closures and district financial problems. Assuming the bleeding stabilizes or bottoms out, expect at least 5-7 years of higher pre-Covid decline because those families have been removed, another decline from children who weren’t born in 2020-2021, and then maybe a relative recovery from that point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Between this thread and the likelihood of universal pre-K, why play with boundaries at all right now? Wait a minute to see what bigger shifts are likely…

Good luck paying teachers with half empty classrooms. Imagine a restaurant that committed to five years of losses without a change to employees. It doesn’t exist.

Im a mediocre teacher riding the status quo. 13 days off paid, plus holidays and health benefits. I’m no Rich Bezos but I’m sure as hell not draining my soul away in a cubicle or some crap.

Said no teacher, ever.