Reply to APS down 4% enrollment, FCPS down 5%

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]https://sungazette.news/arlington-school-enrollment-still-well-below-pre-covid-figure/

State enrollment shows APS declined 4%, FCPS declined 5%, since the beginning of the pandemic. That’s somewhat even more remarkable given some Fairfax zip codes were among the most active for sales last year. National average was 3%, that includes states and districts that stayed shut for a year, and those that returned last summer. Looking for ACPS exact losses but they’re down too.

In other words, coronavirus school closures and losses are likely permanent. If they didn’t come back in August/September, don’t expect them to be back next year.

Maybe there is a demographic dividend in 5-7 years as (existing) families who moved to the suburbs, enroll, although births also declined in 2020-2021, so that’s probably another 1% loss assuming everything returns to normal today.

But districts still need to make payroll, and more specifically don’t be surprised if the new elementary school teacher, losses her job. For other parts of the country, teachers lost typically exit the system and don’t come back. Thanks unions and their Democrat lackeys who repeatedly refused to reopen. Always winning and doing what’s best for the children.[/quote]

Except the baby boom peaked already and these declines were already forecasted years ago.[/quote]

No. This 4-5% in one year is at least 4x or 5x normal decline. A 1% loss annually is considered high and typically results in school closures and district financial problems. Assuming the bleeding stabilizes or bottoms out, expect at least 5-7 years of higher pre-Covid decline because those families have been removed, another decline from children who weren’t born in 2020-2021, and then maybe a relative recovery from that point.[/quote]

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