APS down 4% enrollment, FCPS down 5%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this is a blip and many will come back next year.

We left this year and have no intention of coming back and every one else I know who has done so feels the same.

Cool anecdote.

[Anonymous]

We had to apply to our private school in January 2020 and commit by March before vaccines were widely available or 20-21 in-person school plans were solidified.

Some people are going to come back and were only riding it out in private/ parochial for a few years to get through the COVID issues. Some are going to realize they can't afford some of the more expensive schools and bail in a few years or switch over when their kids start middle or high school.

Some are going to stay out permanently.

Population is still increasing. Development is still happening. Schools are still going to be crowded.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We had to apply to our private school in January 2020 and commit by March before vaccines were widely available or 20-21 in-person school plans were solidified.

Some people are going to come back and were only riding it out in private/ parochial for a few years to get through the COVID issues. Some are going to realize they can't afford some of the more expensive schools and bail in a few years or switch over when their kids start middle or high school.

Some are going to stay out permanently.

Population is still increasing. Development is still happening. Schools are still going to be crowded.

Exactly crowded with affordable housing in the pipeline. Anyone with means will be leaving.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this is a blip and many will come back next year.

This, I think families either went to private or are homeschooling or went virtual due to covid. We went virtual. I don't think the schools are handling covid responsibly and I'd rather avoid covid.

+1. We're homeschooling and not coming back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is 4% that big of a deal? I expected the percentage to be in the double digits

Yes 4% loss is a big deal, and based on other areas concentrated at elementary school, it already means fired teachers and if birth rates don’t return to “normal” school closures.

Would you like a 4-5% pay cut? Or how about overhead for the next 5-7 years hoping some kids are born.

And yet APS is still looking for teachers, so it doesn't look as though firing will be necessary.

I think the decline is a great development, because I think most of the families who left will not be missed. I feel bad for the ones whose kids needed special programs and were sliding without APS' support. The ones whose supergenius kids needed to be out of the parents' way? Buh-bye!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is 4% that big of a deal? I expected the percentage to be in the double digits

Yes 4% loss is a big deal, and based on other areas concentrated at elementary school, it already means fired teachers and if birth rates don’t return to “normal” school closures.

Would you like a 4-5% pay cut? Or how about overhead for the next 5-7 years hoping some kids are born.

And yet APS is still looking for teachers, so it doesn't look as though firing will be necessary.

I think the decline is a great development, because I think most of the families who left will not be missed. I feel bad for the ones whose kids needed special programs and were sliding without APS' support. The ones whose supergenius kids needed to be out of the parents' way? Buh-bye!

Odd, the only people I know who went private were the well to do families.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I think the decline is a great development, because I think most of the families who left will not be missed. I feel bad for the ones whose kids needed special programs and were sliding without APS' support. The ones whose supergenius kids needed to be out of the parents' way? Buh-bye!

Odd, the only people I know who went private were the well to do families.

Dyslexia and autism don't distinguish by social class, so why is that odd?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is 4% that big of a deal? I expected the percentage to be in the double digits

Yes 4% loss is a big deal, and based on other areas concentrated at elementary school, it already means fired teachers and if birth rates don’t return to “normal” school closures.

Would you like a 4-5% pay cut? Or how about overhead for the next 5-7 years hoping some kids are born.

And yet APS is still looking for teachers, so it doesn't look as though firing will be necessary.

I think the decline is a great development, because I think most of the families who left will not be missed. I feel bad for the ones whose kids needed special programs and were sliding without APS' support. The ones whose supergenius kids needed to be out of the parents' way? Buh-bye!

Given turnover at the elementary level is lowest, your logic doesn't hold water, unless the kindergarten teacher can switch to high school chemistry.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is 4% that big of a deal? I expected the percentage to be in the double digits

It's a big deal. All the players bet on growth. Kind of like home prices - worst expected case is no growth, not negative numbers. With decline in birthrate mentioned upthread, cuts seem likely. Many families found out that online learning is just fine. It became a side path to homeschooling.

I could have quoted a couple of posts, but this one will do. Why would it be a problem if 3-5% left permanently? At my school, in some grades the class sizes are significantly smaller and the teachers are loving it. None of the places we are talking about (Arlington/Fairfax) have any concerns about reduced tax assessments or school funding. I mean, maybe you don't want to be in a particular school that has some resources shifted around, but overall a small relief with some kids going private and some homeschooling might be a net positive for these districts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I think the decline is a great development, because I think most of the families who left will not be missed. I feel bad for the ones whose kids needed special programs and were sliding without APS' support. The ones whose supergenius kids needed to be out of the parents' way? Buh-bye!

Odd, the only people I know who went private were the well to do families.

Dyslexia and autism don't distinguish by social class, so why is that odd?

The ability to afford schooling appropriate for dyslexia and autism sure does distinguish by social class

[Anonymous]

Some families will stay. But others will switch in 6th/9th. So I think we'll see those declines go back up.
Also, Arlington at least was predicting a large population bump in the schools which will mean the numbers creep up in the next few years no matter what.

[Anonymous]

We didn't leave, but are going to apply to privates for next year for our ES kids. For our one in 6th, we are planning on it for 9th. In the meantime are supplementing. We see our ES kids not where our older one was and just don't see APS as ever making up for the lost time.

[Anonymous]

This is so not a problem. Why would it matter that APS is 4% down when it was up 38%? So, now it's up 34%. So?

[Anonymous]

Is any surrounding area up? Honestly curious.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is so not a problem. Why would it matter that APS is 4% down when it was up 38%? So, now it's up 34%. So?

Up 34%? Since when and over what time? A decade? Two? This was over the course of a year.

That in and of itself isn’t the end, unless you are a newly hired and soon to be fired elementary school teacher.

But typically kids don’t move into a school system. Who you get at K-1 slowly declines at 12. So best case growth has plateaued and maybe restarts in 5 years once these families starts having children.

Oh but wait that is depressed too with declining birth rates. So 2020 starts the clock for every shrinking classes. Then if you look at 2040, which you should still care about, or at least any teachers, will your neighborhood still have a local school or will teachers have jobs.

Maybe you and your friends in 20 years will be strong enough to survive. Districts in decline feel terminal long before their dead.