SAT/ACT single most predictive factor at Yale

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.


Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.


Rank order these students (based on your belief that GPA is 5x more relevant than standardized testing, or otherwise).

A. 4.00 u/w GPA (5 APs) + 1400 / 32
B. 4.00 u/w GPA (8 APs) + T/O
C. 3.85 u/w GPA (10 APs) + 1500 / 34
D. 3.85 u/w GPA (12 APs) + T/O
E. 3.70 u/w GPA (15 APs) + 1600 / 36

For me, it’s C, E, A, D, B. I could also go with E, C, A, D, B.

Curious to see how you rank them.


DP: I would not rank these students based on that data. Clearly, there all in pool and over the academic achievement hump. My decision about who to select would be based on other factors. They are all well positioned to achieve great things academically. If I could only choose one of them, I would need more information.


+1 Test scores/course rigor/GPA all have to meet a threshold. Fine distinctions among them like these are kind of pointless. After they meet a threshold then it becomes more about awards, achievements, and the class you are trying to build.


But that was the point of the exercise. The original argument was that a high unweighted GPA (i.e., 4.00) was so much more relevant than a high test score (i.e., 1550+ / 35+), that a kid with a 4.00 and 1400 / 33 was typically viewed as a better candidate for admission than another kid with a 3.75 and 1600 / 36.

But everyone seems scared to actually sign their name on the absurdity of that argument by simply rank ordering the five hypothetical candidates that way (prioritizing GPA).

But what about the kid above with the 3.7 who took harder classes than the 4.0?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.


Says the parent whose kid has a 4.4 GPA and is a “bad test taker.” LOL


Yep. The "bad test taker" crowd will be out in full force dissing that dean fella! That's the only outcome they can't buy their way to, so they don't want it but pretend it helps the 'underprivileged' they pretend to care about.



DP

Nope - My DC had both very high test scores and GPA that they worked very hard for. They won awards in STEM field at undergrad and post grad level but their supervisor pointed out it was their work ethic that set them apart.

I place much more store by consistent hard work ethic: Unsurprisingly, credible studies support that GPA is much more important than test scores for predicting future college success.


Yes--it's the work ethic that will get you much further in life as well. I'll take a 3.9+ GPA kid with a 1400 anyway over a 1600/3.75 gpa kid who didn't see the need to complete assignments on time/do the work needed to earn As in HS (or college). Strong work ethic and a smart person will go further than a smart person who only wants to work if it interests them.


[/b]You’ll “take that kid” because that’s your kid.

The on-the-ground difference between a ~ 3.9 and a ~ 3.75 can be explained by so many minor factors as to render the difference materially irrelevant.

By way of example, what if the latter kid took 4 honors classes that his school didn’t weight, finishing with a B grade but an average of 89.4 in those classes. Meanwhile, another kid took those same 4 classes, but the less accelerated, less intensive college prep. versions, and finished with an A grade but an average of 90.2 in those classes.

Are you seriously going to try to convince others that the kid who took the honors classes with a 1600/36 on one-and-done testing has less capacity than your kid who took the CP classes with a 1450/33 on a super scored basis across five test dates?


The best part of your “smart person” label is that you literally dismissed the material difference in cognitive abilities reflected in 200 SAT points but are unwilling to do the same for .15 grade points, or else attribute any difference to work ethic.

Again, you can only justify taking the substantially lower test score kid because that’s your kid. If your kid had produced a one-and-done 1600/36, you would be singing an entirely different tune.


DP - my DC was a one and done very high scores on SAT, ACT and SAT subject tests. However, I still think that that their high GPA for difficult subjects over 4 years was the single biggest predictor for their highly Successful undergrad and post grad journy.

I also think that it is common sense that students from disadvantaged backgrounds or experiences may not be able to afford SAT and ACT tests and prep work. I believe it is in all our interests to reduce barriers to college entry for students who face much greater challenges getting there.

The best SAT prep resources (past exams) are free. The good prep books (college panda, Erica meltzer, orange book, studylark) are relatively cheap, and free if your resort to piracy. Lastly, KhanAcademy has a great question database


No they're not. Better than what was previously available for free? Yes. Best? Nope. I taught test prep. Not all materials (even practice tests) are equal. There are better materials and formats (class and tutoring are more effective than self study). But, the Khan stuff is a good start. For a disciplined kid, I would also buy Kallis (good explanations and practice tests) and Princeton Review (some good strategy, research and practice tests). But, some kids will really benefit from a class or one-on-one format.


Lower middle classs parent again -- the practice tests you can take on college board are old SAT tests (mostly, a couple are tests that weren't used, but you can see on reddit which were used). The Khan program is adaptive, so you you link your practice test/college board and Khan and the student gets practice questions in an area they need to work on. And if you're still confused, there are a few YouTube videos that run through it all.

Sure, a 5k one-on-one format is better, but that's true with [b]everything
from AP exams to college counseling to athletic coaches. I found the SAT to be the area where self-studying had a lot more options than other areas. A reason these semi-shady college counseling TikTok accounts are so popular now is because there's a big black hole of information about summer programs (talk about inequitable), etc and not super resourced kids know there's a lot they don't know. And it's off to reddit or TikTok. The SAT was straightforward in comparison. A half hour of Khan a night and my kids did great.


I am middle class, too and can't afford that, but it does make a difference for many students. The wealthier have an edge. I also taught test prep, and the SAT is not straightforward.


I agree.

Plus many disadvantaged communities don’t have supermarkets let alone public libraries. Many students have parents working 2-4 jobs and still need food stamps/ food pantries to feed their families so they are not focussed on helping their DC with finding free SAT help.

Not saying SAT/ ACT should go away but test optional helps reduce barriers to entry for some hard working bright students.

Obviously this is only one small reform of many that is needed in higher education. However, this thread relates to SAT/ACT being single most predictive factor for college admission and graduation. I don’t agree that it is - high GPA for rigorous course load is - and the playing field for doing well in SAT/ ACT not even.

Good for colleges such as the UC system that recognize this, and have been leading the way in helping more first gen, low socio economic and other disadvantaged students get their foot in the college door.



No - “However, this thread relates to SAT/ACT being single most predictive factor for college admission and graduation. I don’t agree that it is - high GPA for rigorous course load is - and the playing field for doing well in SAT/ ACT not even.”

First, this discussion is about it being most predictive for Yale and Dartmouth. This isn’t being expanded beyond that echelon. You can’t just say that Yale’s study is wrong for Yale. You don’t know better than they do.

Second, I suspect the playing field may be even more uneven for high gpa with a rigorous course load. A stable family situation, including economically, can play a huge role in a students success. Even if a kid is able to ace their classes, rigor may be the most inequitable. Half of US high schools don’t offer any calculus at all. For Yale and Dartmouth, they want test scores from kids from underresourced backgrounds to see if, despite a lack of the rigorous coursework you would find available at an affluent suburban high school, the kid can manage the coursework at Ivy. That can be difficult for even very bright kids. And no one wins if they can’t handle the work. This isn’t about providing opportunities for kids to get into any college. This is the elite of the elite. And these top schools need kids who are prepared. They struggle to find kids with underresourced backgrounds who are. That’s not an equity problem that can just be solved by Ivy admissions. As a country we need to address those gross inequities at a much, much earlier stage.

THIS!
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.


Says the parent whose kid has a 4.4 GPA and is a “bad test taker.” LOL


Yep. The "bad test taker" crowd will be out in full force dissing that dean fella! That's the only outcome they can't buy their way to, so they don't want it but pretend it helps the 'underprivileged' they pretend to care about.



DP

Nope - My DC had both very high test scores and GPA that they worked very hard for. They won awards in STEM field at undergrad and post grad level but their supervisor pointed out it was their work ethic that set them apart.

I place much more store by consistent hard work ethic: Unsurprisingly, credible studies support that GPA is much more important than test scores for predicting future college success.



Yes--it's the work ethic that will get you much further in life as well. I'll take a 3.9+ GPA kid with a 1400 anyway over a 1600/3.75 gpa kid who didn't see the need to complete assignments on time/do the work needed to earn As in HS (or college). Strong work ethic and a smart person will go further than a smart person who only wants to work if it interests them.



That's not actually true. Most people choose a career that interests them.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.


Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.


Rank order these students (based on your belief that GPA is 5x more relevant than standardized testing, or otherwise).

A. 4.00 u/w GPA (5 APs) + 1400 / 32
B. 4.00 u/w GPA (8 APs) + T/O
C. 3.85 u/w GPA (10 APs) + 1500 / 34
D. 3.85 u/w GPA (12 APs) + T/O
E. 3.70 u/w GPA (15 APs) + 1600 / 36

For me, it’s C, E, A, D, B. I could also go with E, C, A, D, B.

Curious to see how you rank them.


DP: I would not rank these students based on that data. Clearly, there all in pool and over the academic achievement hump. My decision about who to select would be based on other factors. They are all well positioned to achieve great things academically. If I could only choose one of them, I would need more information.


+1 Test scores/course rigor/GPA all have to meet a threshold. Fine distinctions among them like these are kind of pointless. After they meet a threshold then it becomes more about awards, achievements, and the class you are trying to build.


But that was the point of the exercise. The original argument was that a high unweighted GPA (i.e., 4.00) was so much more relevant than a high test score (i.e., 1550+ / 35+), that a kid with a 4.00 and 1400 / 33 was typically viewed as a better candidate for admission than another kid with a 3.75 and 1600 / 36.

But everyone seems scared to actually sign their name on the absurdity of that argument by simply rank ordering the five hypothetical candidates that way (prioritizing GPA).

But what about the kid above with the 3.7 who took harder classes than the 4.0?


Or the 3.7 who had the teachers who never gives As.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.


Where are the peer-reviewed studies?


One could say the same about the SAT/ACT being a stonger indicator. Deans saying so does not make it true.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Thanks for sharing, interesting. Requiring scores also helps keep out the upper echelon riff raft. Those privileged over-counseled blood suckers go TO because they don’t have the chops.


LOL. As if plenty of 1500+ scores aren’t the result of intensive, expensive test prep and multiple tries. Come on.


or extended time
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:MIT also found out that tests were valuable predictors of success. That’s why their test optional experiment ended a couple of years ago.


MIT DECIDED[u][i] that tests were valuable predictors of success. That’s why their test optional experiment ended a couple of years ago.

Fixed it for you!
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:MIT also found out that tests were valuable predictors of success. That’s why their test optional experiment ended a couple of years ago.


MIT DECIDED[u][i] that tests were valuable predictors of success. That’s why their test optional experiment ended a couple of years ago.

Fixed it for you!


Read MIT's announcement on the change to make SATs/ACTs mandatory again. They found a strong correlation between scores and success. Same as the huge University of California study.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.


Says the parent whose kid has a 4.4 GPA and is a “bad test taker.” LOL


Yep. The "bad test taker" crowd will be out in full force dissing that dean fella! That's the only outcome they can't buy their way to, so they don't want it but pretend it helps the 'underprivileged' they pretend to care about.

Isn't lousy test taker a nice way of saying less capable.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:MIT also found out that tests were valuable predictors of success. That’s why their test optional experiment ended a couple of years ago.


MIT DECIDED[u][i] that tests were valuable predictors of success. That’s why their test optional experiment ended a couple of years ago.

Fixed it for you!


Read MIT's announcement on the change to make SATs/ACTs mandatory again. They found a strong correlation between scores and success. Same as the huge University of California study.


You completely misstate the findings of the UC study. Gaslighting people isn’t helpful.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The average SAT score is 1028. The average ACT score is 19.

Test scores are extremely predictive of college success. That's why there are a ton of scholarships available for high scores. You want a free ride to Alabama? 32-36 will do it. But test optional is not going away. Colleges love the extra applications. But don't think for a minute that your kid in Bethesda or Arlington can get away with not submitting test scores, unless they have some kind of hook.

For the elite schools, your white kid from the burbs is not getting in without a 1500+ or 34. Plus the 4.0. And what makes things annoying is that TO has bumped up average test scores to the stratosphere. It's tough out there.


Not true.
White kid. 33.
In at Cornell last year.


Agriculture? Architecture? Business? Hospitality?


Business


Geographic diversity? Rural/small town/under represented state?


Please give me some way to dismiss your kid as somehow less deserving of this. Please?


Yup. Actually thought they were going to 'play' the legacy or athlete cards first.


Well, the deans of admission basically said they look at test scores in context of your school/resources. And if yours is below the median test score for this school but is actually way higher than the average for your under resourced/rural/small town/North Dakota HS, that test score is as or more impressive than a 1550 / 34+ from an UMC suburban kid. So the kid that got into Cornell with a 33 may not be from an average or overrepresented geographic area, UMC etc. may have some hook / institutional priority but then again 33 is very close to their middle 50% so who knows. 33 ACT is a very good score and definitely doesn’t put you out of consideration for ivies. I know of a girl who got into Stanford through questbridge with a 29 ACT.


And then she required special summer program to start, and special handholding throughout to survive. What a sad joke.


So what, if she survived.

I am her. I grew up poor and white. I had a good GPA for my under resourced school. MY SAT was awful. I got into a school that required me to start in the summer and take remedial classes. I had to use tutors and academic resource center to graduate. It took me 5 years and not 4. I graduated magna cum laude with a B.S. in EE and a minor in math. I was a successful engineer who worked with people who went to MIT. I then left engineering and went to law school. I got into a prestigious T10 law school. I am now a partner at a law firm and well respected by my peers and clients. I practice patent law and counsel the best and brightest with top engineering degrees. Who cares how I got there. I got there. I make more money than I could have dreamed doing what I love.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:1. Why is that Dean Coffin so profoundly unlikable?

2. Our NYC private is now advising submit if it's over 25% cut off

3. I'd submit a 1500 to any school in America.


Chicago private. CC also advising to submit if over 25%

NP. Makes sense to me. Felt like I was saying this all last year when the professionals were saying 50%. Essentially, if the score shows the kid is in the ballpark of the enrolled class before test optional (CDS 2020-21), it helps them show they can handle the academics.

Does anyone suppose that high test score kids (1500+) might do better in admissions this year than the crapshoot results of the last three years? Asking for a friend...


I don't know about better, but I do feel like the days of unhooked kids in middle class or wealthier zip codes going TO is over. Submit it or forget it.


There are so many kids who score 1500+ (or the ACT equivalent) that there just aren't enough spaces for them at the top schools.

Someone on here once posted that according to the Common App 2022 report, 76,000+ applicants applied to universities/colleges with an SAT score >1500 or ACT equivalent. There are an additional 98,000 in the 1400-1490 range. That's a lot of smart kids to place.


Your > 1500 data is inaccurate. The number is substantially lower that 76K individuals.


Hmm..It is the top 5 percent out of about 2 million individuals...so about right, I think


https://satsuite.collegeboard.org/media/pdf/understanding-sat-scores.pdf

Where did you get 95th %ile ... ??? Review the data at the link above, and let me know if that changes your opinion.


The number of individuals in a given year scoring 1500 or higher on the SAT, or 34 or higher on the ACT, is probably close to 32,000 in total. I know there's a desperate narrative floating around that there are more qualified applicants for T20 schools than seats available, but that's simply untrue.


It is true because it's based on who applies, not who exists in the world. There ARE more qualified applicants for T20 schools WHO APPLY than seats available
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:1. Why is that Dean Coffin so profoundly unlikable?

2. Our NYC private is now advising submit if it's over 25% cut off

3. I'd submit a 1500 to any school in America.


Chicago private. CC also advising to submit if over 25%

NP. Makes sense to me. Felt like I was saying this all last year when the professionals were saying 50%. Essentially, if the score shows the kid is in the ballpark of the enrolled class before test optional (CDS 2020-21), it helps them show they can handle the academics.

Does anyone suppose that high test score kids (1500+) might do better in admissions this year than the crapshoot results of the last three years? Asking for a friend...


I don't know about better, but I do feel like the days of unhooked kids in middle class or wealthier zip codes going TO is over. Submit it or forget it.


There are so many kids who score 1500+ (or the ACT equivalent) that there just aren't enough spaces for them at the top schools.

Someone on here once posted that according to the Common App 2022 report, 76,000+ applicants applied to universities/colleges with an SAT score >1500 or ACT equivalent. There are an additional 98,000 in the 1400-1490 range. That's a lot of smart kids to place.


Your > 1500 data is inaccurate. The number is substantially lower that 76K individuals.


Hmm..It is the top 5 percent out of about 2 million individuals...so about right, I think


https://satsuite.collegeboard.org/media/pdf/understanding-sat-scores.pdf

Where did you get 95th %ile ... ??? Review the data at the link above, and let me know if that changes your opinion.


The number of individuals in a given year scoring 1500 or higher on the SAT, or 34 or higher on the ACT, is probably close to 32,000 in total. I know there's a desperate narrative floating around that there are more qualified applicants for T20 schools than seats available, but that's simply untrue.

DP. "Qualified" no longer includes test scores, so yes, there are many more "qualified" applicants than seats. (Under tests-required, I'm not sure.)


Reference to "qualified" was made in a universe where an objective measurement of qualification is at the heart of the admissions calculus, not one where grade inflation ensures that almost everyone shows up with a GPA trophy. Also, strongly disagree that "qualified" in the T20 range no longer includes test scores. Excluding UCB and UCLA, who else is test blind?


This never existed. Even with scores.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Where is California's antiracist test that's replacing the SAT?


As soon as they find one where white kids can score as high as Asians, I’m sure they’ll roll it right out.



Don't think it's the whites that are complaining about test scores


You would be wrong.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.


Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.


Rank order these students (based on your belief that GPA is 5x more relevant than standardized testing, or otherwise).

A. 4.00 u/w GPA (5 APs) + 1400 / 32
B. 4.00 u/w GPA (8 APs) + T/O
C. 3.85 u/w GPA (10 APs) + 1500 / 34
D. 3.85 u/w GPA (12 APs) + T/O
E. 3.70 u/w GPA (15 APs) + 1600 / 36

For me, it’s C, E, A, D, B. I could also go with E, C, A, D, B.

Curious to see how you rank them.



I need essays, LORs, ECs, leadership, community service, and whether they worked a job before.
post reply Forum Index » College and University Discussion
Message Quick Reply
Go to: