U.S. Annual Inflation rose to 6.8% in November - the highest in 40 years

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:Before anyone panics, take a look at the release:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

In particular, look at the chart at the bottom of page one. While inflation is increasing, it is trending down.

In October it was 0.9, in November it as 0.8, and in December it was 0.5. If this trend continues, we will get down to normal levels in a couple of months.

Lol, again with the terrible takes Here is your prediction from this thread on 12/30 at 21:51 that the CPI print would go *down* this month from the 6.8% reading last month:

"Gas prices have gone down so inflation will likely be lower."

Instead, it went up, which was obvious because the monthly CPI print of 0.2% from December 2020 was virtually certain to be replaced by a December 2021 number that was higher than 0.2%. (Indeed, not a single monthly print in all of 2021 came in as low as 0.2%.)

If you were just a Democrat hack, it would be one thing. Unfortunately, like all leftists, you also buy into the censoring and totalitarian worldview so you make this site far less valuable that it could be.

We have not had any inflation in 30 years. I’m guessing most of you were not adults during the Reagan administration. I got out of college into a terrible economy and had two crummy jobs for a year and a half until I got a career position. I knew several college graduates who enlisted in the military just to have a job. I managed to buy a house at 24 when mortgage rates were 17%. I got a mortgage through VHDA as low income for 10.42%. No one ever mentions St Reagan’s terrible inflation. Right now we have the best job market in forty years. At $81k right out of college my kid can afford to pay 6% more for food. Gas was $1.10 per gallon when I earned $18 k per year. Thanks Ron.

I was alive. I also had a brain, which apparently is something you lacked. Carter caused heavy inflation by maintaining low rates and expansionary fiscal policy. Sounds familiar? Once Reagan got into office, he fought to fix the high inflation - and one way to do that is to raise interest rates - which is what Powell is prepared to do just now. The high mortgage rate you paid in the 80s was the reason why inflation came down to more normal levels.

The fact that you seem to think that there is a positive correlation between inflation and interest rates shows just how little you know about the relation between the two.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:Before anyone panics, take a look at the release:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

In particular, look at the chart at the bottom of page one. While inflation is increasing, it is trending down.

In October it was 0.9, in November it as 0.8, and in December it was 0.5. If this trend continues, we will get down to normal levels in a couple of months.

Lol, again with the terrible takes Here is your prediction from this thread on 12/30 at 21:51 that the CPI print would go *down* this month from the 6.8% reading last month:

"Gas prices have gone down so inflation will likely be lower."

Instead, it went up, which was obvious because the monthly CPI print of 0.2% from December 2020 was virtually certain to be replaced by a December 2021 number that was higher than 0.2%. (Indeed, not a single monthly print in all of 2021 came in as low as 0.2%.)

If you were just a Democrat hack, it would be one thing. Unfortunately, like all leftists, you also buy into the censoring and totalitarian worldview so you make this site far less valuable that it could be.

Are you illiterate or unable to do basic math? I said, "inflation will likely be lower". Inflation in November was 0.8 and in December it was 0.5. You don't appear to understand that 0.5 is lower than 0.8. Hence, inflation was lower. I was correct.

This is math illiteracy. Just because increases went down doesn't mean raw inflation went down. Lol, increases are increases - just go look up the CPI #s from Oct, Nov, and Dec....sorry, but you're wrong. The CPI is increasing, and Americans absolutely feel it.

If I have 10 widgets this quarter, and make 11 widgets in the 2nd quarter, I have a 10% increase. In the 3rd quarter I make 12 widgets, therefore my production over Q2 is only 9.1%, which is less than the 10% increase compared to the change over Q1-Q2. However, in raw terms I still am making more widgets in Q3 compared to Q2 and Q1, it's just that my denominator is increasing which makes it appear the rate of change is slowing. That still doesn't change the fact that the overall quantity of the denominator is still getting bigger and I am making more widgets. Inflation is NOT lower. It IS still increasing. You're just trying to claim the rate of change numbers somehow mean inflation is decreasing. It's not. Increases are increases.

You are confused. Inflation is a measurement of change on the underlying price, it is not the price itself. Price may continue to increase even if inflation holds at a steady value and does not change. In this case, inflation did indeed go down in December relative to November, even if the raw underlying price went up. Jeff's comments were on inflation, not underlying price.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is math illiteracy. Just because increases went down doesn't mean raw inflation went down. Lol, increases are increases - just go look up the CPI #s from Oct, Nov, and Dec....sorry, but you're wrong. The CPI is increasing, and Americans absolutely feel it.

If I have 10 widgets this quarter, and make 11 widgets in the 2nd quarter, I have a 10% increase. In the 3rd quarter I make 12 widgets, therefore my production over Q2 is only 9.1%, which is less than the 10% increase compared to the change over Q1-Q2. However, in raw terms I still am making more widgets in Q3 compared to Q2 and Q1, it's just that my denominator is increasing which makes it appear the rate of change is slowing. That still doesn't change the fact that the overall quantity of the denominator is still getting bigger and I am making more widgets. Inflation is NOT lower. It IS still increasing. You're just trying to claim the rate of change numbers somehow mean inflation is decreasing. It's not. Increases are increases.

You are confused. Inflation is a measurement of change on the underlying price, it is not the price itself. Price may continue to increase even if inflation holds at a steady value and does not change. In this case, inflation did indeed go down in December relative to November, even if the raw underlying price went up. Jeff's comments were on inflation, not underlying price.

Exactly. I didn't comment on CPI. I didn't comment on the annual rate of inflation. Here is the entire exchange:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last day of December tomorrow - we'll get inflation numbers in 10 days. Any bets?

Gas prices have gone down so inflation will likely be lower.

CPI is not mentioned. Annual rate of inflation is not mentioned. All that is mentioned is the inflation number for December. I predicted it would be lower. It was lower. The first poster above would rather fight strawmen than use basic reading and math skills.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:Before anyone panics, take a look at the release:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

In particular, look at the chart at the bottom of page one. While inflation is increasing, it is trending down.

In October it was 0.9, in November it as 0.8, and in December it was 0.5. If this trend continues, we will get down to normal levels in a couple of months.

Lol, again with the terrible takes Here is your prediction from this thread on 12/30 at 21:51 that the CPI print would go *down* this month from the 6.8% reading last month:

"Gas prices have gone down so inflation will likely be lower."

Instead, it went up, which was obvious because the monthly CPI print of 0.2% from December 2020 was virtually certain to be replaced by a December 2021 number that was higher than 0.2%. (Indeed, not a single monthly print in all of 2021 came in as low as 0.2%.)

If you were just a Democrat hack, it would be one thing. Unfortunately, like all leftists, you also buy into the censoring and totalitarian worldview so you make this site far less valuable that it could be.

Are you illiterate or unable to do basic math? I said, "inflation will likely be lower". Inflation in November was 0.8 and in December it was 0.5. You don't appear to understand that 0.5 is lower than 0.8. Hence, inflation was lower. I was correct.

This is math illiteracy. Just because increases went down doesn't mean raw inflation went down. Lol, increases are increases - just go look up the CPI #s from Oct, Nov, and Dec....sorry, but you're wrong. The CPI is increasing, and Americans absolutely feel it.

If I have 10 widgets this quarter, and make 11 widgets in the 2nd quarter, I have a 10% increase. In the 3rd quarter I make 12 widgets, therefore my production over Q2 is only 9.1%, which is less than the 10% increase compared to the change over Q1-Q2. However, in raw terms I still am making more widgets in Q3 compared to Q2 and Q1, it's just that my denominator is increasing which makes it appear the rate of change is slowing. That still doesn't change the fact that the overall quantity of the denominator is still getting bigger and I am making more widgets. Inflation is NOT lower. It IS still increasing. You're just trying to claim the rate of change numbers somehow mean inflation is decreasing. It's not. Increases are increases.

You are confused. Inflation is a measurement of change on the underlying price, it is not the price itself. Price may continue to increase even if inflation holds at a steady value and does not change. In this case, inflation did indeed go down in December relative to November, even if the raw underlying price went up. Jeff's comments were on inflation, not underlying price.

No, you are confused. CPI was literally 7 in Dec. It was 6.8 in Nov. It was 6.2 in Oct. Clearly it is NOT going down. The widget example is just trying to highlight the differences between rates of change and the underlying denominator. CPI is a rate of change. The change in the CPI is the rate of change of the rate of change. Therefore the widget example still applies. Underlying CPI has risen. Period. There's no arguing about it. Even though the rate of change of CPI has fluctuated and gone down a little bit, underlying CPI has still gone up because the rate of change is still positive. That's the point. The only way the CPI goes down is if month over month changes actually turn negative. It doesn't matter if there's fluctuation in the month over month change in CPI if they are all positive numbers. Any positive numbers still mean CPI is rising.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is math illiteracy. Just because increases went down doesn't mean raw inflation went down. Lol, increases are increases - just go look up the CPI #s from Oct, Nov, and Dec....sorry, but you're wrong. The CPI is increasing, and Americans absolutely feel it.

If I have 10 widgets this quarter, and make 11 widgets in the 2nd quarter, I have a 10% increase. In the 3rd quarter I make 12 widgets, therefore my production over Q2 is only 9.1%, which is less than the 10% increase compared to the change over Q1-Q2. However, in raw terms I still am making more widgets in Q3 compared to Q2 and Q1, it's just that my denominator is increasing which makes it appear the rate of change is slowing. That still doesn't change the fact that the overall quantity of the denominator is still getting bigger and I am making more widgets. Inflation is NOT lower. It IS still increasing. You're just trying to claim the rate of change numbers somehow mean inflation is decreasing. It's not. Increases are increases.

You are confused. Inflation is a measurement of change on the underlying price, it is not the price itself. Price may continue to increase even if inflation holds at a steady value and does not change. In this case, inflation did indeed go down in December relative to November, even if the raw underlying price went up. Jeff's comments were on inflation, not underlying price.

Exactly. I didn't comment on CPI. I didn't comment on the annual rate of inflation. Here is the entire exchange:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last day of December tomorrow - we'll get inflation numbers in 10 days. Any bets?

Gas prices have gone down so inflation will likely be lower.

CPI is not mentioned. Annual rate of inflation is not mentioned. All that is mentioned is the inflation number for December. I predicted it would be lower. It was lower. The first poster above would rather fight strawmen than use basic reading and math skills.

Lol, I'm the original PP that called out your bad takes - one- or two-month fluctuations mean *nothing*. The monthly inflation rate dropped from 0.9% in June to 0.5% in July to 0.3% in August...and then was back to 0.9% in October and 0.8% in November. That's why people look at the CPI on a YOY basis - and this increased from 6.8% to 7%. Question for you, Jeff: do you also think that stocks are a great investment if they go up today and a terrible investment tomorrow if they go down??

Since businesses eventually have to pass on costs to consumers, PPI is considered a leading indicator of where the CPI is going. PPI was 9.7% for 2021 (i.e., above the 7% for the CPI), meaning there are likely more consumer price increases coming.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is math illiteracy. Just because increases went down doesn't mean raw inflation went down. Lol, increases are increases - just go look up the CPI #s from Oct, Nov, and Dec....sorry, but you're wrong. The CPI is increasing, and Americans absolutely feel it.

If I have 10 widgets this quarter, and make 11 widgets in the 2nd quarter, I have a 10% increase. In the 3rd quarter I make 12 widgets, therefore my production over Q2 is only 9.1%, which is less than the 10% increase compared to the change over Q1-Q2. However, in raw terms I still am making more widgets in Q3 compared to Q2 and Q1, it's just that my denominator is increasing which makes it appear the rate of change is slowing. That still doesn't change the fact that the overall quantity of the denominator is still getting bigger and I am making more widgets. Inflation is NOT lower. It IS still increasing. You're just trying to claim the rate of change numbers somehow mean inflation is decreasing. It's not. Increases are increases.

You are confused. Inflation is a measurement of change on the underlying price, it is not the price itself. Price may continue to increase even if inflation holds at a steady value and does not change. In this case, inflation did indeed go down in December relative to November, even if the raw underlying price went up. Jeff's comments were on inflation, not underlying price.

Exactly. I didn't comment on CPI. I didn't comment on the annual rate of inflation. Here is the entire exchange:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last day of December tomorrow - we'll get inflation numbers in 10 days. Any bets?

Gas prices have gone down so inflation will likely be lower.

CPI is not mentioned. Annual rate of inflation is not mentioned. All that is mentioned is the inflation number for December. I predicted it would be lower. It was lower. The first poster above would rather fight strawmen than use basic reading and math skills.

Lol, I'm the original PP that called out your bad takes - one- or two-month fluctuations mean *nothing*. The monthly inflation rate dropped from 0.9% in June to 0.5% in July to 0.3% in August...and then was back to 0.9% in October and 0.8% in November. That's why people look at the CPI on a YOY basis - and this increased from 6.8% to 7%. Question for you, Jeff: do you also think that stocks are a great investment if they go up today and a terrible investment tomorrow if they go down??

Since businesses eventually have to pass on costs to consumers, PPI is considered a leading indicator of where the CPI is going. PPI was 9.7% for 2021 (i.e., above the 7% for the CPI), meaning there are likely more consumer price increases coming.

I was asked a very specific question: what will the December inflation number be? I gave a very specific answer: it will be lower. I was correct and the number was lower. You can have whatever discussions you want with whomever you want to have them. But I am not interested. You can LOL as much as you want, but I was still correct and you were wrong to suggest otherwise.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If BBB passes and those child tax credits don't stop, its over. 10% Inflation in Spring 2022. FML.

You’re silly. The inflation is due to the Fed’s monetary policy that helps bubbles and artificially controls the markets to benefit the wealthiest of Americans and corporations. Parents getting help with daycare isn’t the problem.

Daycare and thousands in free income a month are two different things. Hopefully Manchin saves us all.

Hundreds of thousands of free income. And, the willingness to not be employed at all. Oh. The irony.
Which country owns the most US debt???? Hmmm. Take a wild guess.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:Before anyone panics, take a look at the release:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

In particular, look at the chart at the bottom of page one. While inflation is increasing, it is trending down.

In October it was 0.9, in November it as 0.8, and in December it was 0.5. If this trend continues, we will get down to normal levels in a couple of months.

Lol, again with the terrible takes Here is your prediction from this thread on 12/30 at 21:51 that the CPI print would go *down* this month from the 6.8% reading last month:

"Gas prices have gone down so inflation will likely be lower."

Instead, it went up, which was obvious because the monthly CPI print of 0.2% from December 2020 was virtually certain to be replaced by a December 2021 number that was higher than 0.2%. (Indeed, not a single monthly print in all of 2021 came in as low as 0.2%.)

If you were just a Democrat hack, it would be one thing. Unfortunately, like all leftists, you also buy into the censoring and totalitarian worldview so you make this site far less valuable that it could be.

We have not had any inflation in 30 years. I’m guessing most of you were not adults during the Reagan administration. I got out of college into a terrible economy and had two crummy jobs for a year and a half until I got a career position. I knew several college graduates who enlisted in the military just to have a job. I managed to buy a house at 24 when mortgage rates were 17%. I got a mortgage through VHDA as low income for 10.42%. No one ever mentions St Reagan’s terrible inflation. Right now we have the best job market in forty years. At $81k right out of college my kid can afford to pay 6% more for food. Gas was $1.10 per gallon when I earned $18 k per year. Thanks Ron.

Wrong. Because inflation is more than just food - its rent. And rent has gone up 25% in various parts of the country.

In a HCOL city like D.C. - a junior one bedroom or studio is now $2,000+/month. $2K is $24,000 a year spent on rent. So really your kid's $81K job, minus $15K in taxes and $24K in rent, is now $42K a year to live on. Not bad but for most people the rest of that is eaten up by things like food (shocker), student loans, utilities, etc.

Unless your college-grad is living with you. Is your kid in your basement?

Nice attempt at insult. I don't have a basement. He does have a childhood friend who still lives at home but their house is 4,000 square ft. and the friend will be buying his own home pretty soon. His friend is class of 2020 and is shoveling money into savings. My son is in a 2/2 960 sq. ft. apartment in Clarendon and not a high rise. It does have laundry in the unit which seems to be rare, and has covered parking. He's 1.2 miles from his job, which is remote anyway. He has a roommate who is a friend from college and not random, $12k in savings, and no student loans, and his car is paid for. He could afford $1600/month he figured, but he's paying $1050 and aggressively saving. So the apartment is $2200. It's a deal in the area. I do know rents have gone up a lot, but he'll be paying about $12,600 in rent, not the $24k you think.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:Before anyone panics, take a look at the release:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

In particular, look at the chart at the bottom of page one. While inflation is increasing, it is trending down.

In October it was 0.9, in November it as 0.8, and in December it was 0.5. If this trend continues, we will get down to normal levels in a couple of months.

Lol, again with the terrible takes Here is your prediction from this thread on 12/30 at 21:51 that the CPI print would go *down* this month from the 6.8% reading last month:

"Gas prices have gone down so inflation will likely be lower."

Instead, it went up, which was obvious because the monthly CPI print of 0.2% from December 2020 was virtually certain to be replaced by a December 2021 number that was higher than 0.2%. (Indeed, not a single monthly print in all of 2021 came in as low as 0.2%.)

If you were just a Democrat hack, it would be one thing. Unfortunately, like all leftists, you also buy into the censoring and totalitarian worldview so you make this site far less valuable that it could be.

We have not had any inflation in 30 years. I’m guessing most of you were not adults during the Reagan administration. I got out of college into a terrible economy and had two crummy jobs for a year and a half until I got a career position. I knew several college graduates who enlisted in the military just to have a job. I managed to buy a house at 24 when mortgage rates were 17%. I got a mortgage through VHDA as low income for 10.42%. No one ever mentions St Reagan’s terrible inflation. Right now we have the best job market in forty years. At $81k right out of college my kid can afford to pay 6% more for food. Gas was $1.10 per gallon when I earned $18 k per year. Thanks Ron.

Wrong. Because inflation is more than just food - its rent. And rent has gone up 25% in various parts of the country.

In a HCOL city like D.C. - a junior one bedroom or studio is now $2,000+/month. $2K is $24,000 a year spent on rent. So really your kid's $81K job, minus $15K in taxes and $24K in rent, is now $42K a year to live on. Not bad but for most people the rest of that is eaten up by things like food (shocker), student loans, utilities, etc.

Unless your college-grad is living with you. Is your kid in your basement?

Nice attempt at insult. I don't have a basement. He does have a childhood friend who still lives at home but their house is 4,000 square ft. and the friend will be buying his own home pretty soon. His friend is class of 2020 and is shoveling money into savings. My son is in a 2/2 960 sq. ft. apartment in Clarendon and not a high rise. It does have laundry in the unit which seems to be rare, and has covered parking. He's 1.2 miles from his job, which is remote anyway. He has a roommate who is a friend from college and not random, $12k in savings, and no student loans, and his car is paid for. He could afford $1600/month he figured, but he's paying $1050 and aggressively saving. So the apartment is $2200. It's a deal in the area. I do know rents have gone up a lot, but he'll be paying about $12,600 in rent, not the $24k you think.

Actually his rent is right around what I thought it would be - outside of the District. Now if you think he can buy a home in this area just out of college without parental help I'd love to see it. I did it but I was making twice what your son was making (however I'll admit I was 26 at the time and not 21/22 - so good for him).

[Anonymous]

The inflationary drivers are already starting to head back in the right direction and will smooth out by the time the midterms roll around.

The Republicans will have to latch on to some other faux outrage. Maybe they can fabricate something new about Hunter, or some other nonsense again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The inflationary drivers are already starting to head back in the right direction and will smooth out by the time the midterms roll around.

The Republicans will have to latch on to some other faux outrage. Maybe they can fabricate something new about Hunter, or some other nonsense again.

Is this the new 'inflation is transitory'? Did you get new marching orders from Psaki? 'The inflation drivers are heading back..'

More nonsense babble. I truly hope by March 2022 we're back down to where we should have been all along and we can put these nonsense spending bills to rest forever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is math illiteracy. Just because increases went down doesn't mean raw inflation went down. Lol, increases are increases - just go look up the CPI #s from Oct, Nov, and Dec....sorry, but you're wrong. The CPI is increasing, and Americans absolutely feel it.

If I have 10 widgets this quarter, and make 11 widgets in the 2nd quarter, I have a 10% increase. In the 3rd quarter I make 12 widgets, therefore my production over Q2 is only 9.1%, which is less than the 10% increase compared to the change over Q1-Q2. However, in raw terms I still am making more widgets in Q3 compared to Q2 and Q1, it's just that my denominator is increasing which makes it appear the rate of change is slowing. That still doesn't change the fact that the overall quantity of the denominator is still getting bigger and I am making more widgets. Inflation is NOT lower. It IS still increasing. You're just trying to claim the rate of change numbers somehow mean inflation is decreasing. It's not. Increases are increases.

You are confused. Inflation is a measurement of change on the underlying price, it is not the price itself. Price may continue to increase even if inflation holds at a steady value and does not change. In this case, inflation did indeed go down in December relative to November, even if the raw underlying price went up. Jeff's comments were on inflation, not underlying price.

Exactly. I didn't comment on CPI. I didn't comment on the annual rate of inflation. Here is the entire exchange:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last day of December tomorrow - we'll get inflation numbers in 10 days. Any bets?

Gas prices have gone down so inflation will likely be lower.

CPI is not mentioned. Annual rate of inflation is not mentioned. All that is mentioned is the inflation number for December. I predicted it would be lower. It was lower. The first poster above would rather fight strawmen than use basic reading and math skills.

Lol, I'm the original PP that called out your bad takes - one- or two-month fluctuations mean *nothing*. The monthly inflation rate dropped from 0.9% in June to 0.5% in July to 0.3% in August...and then was back to 0.9% in October and 0.8% in November. That's why people look at the CPI on a YOY basis - and this increased from 6.8% to 7%. Question for you, Jeff: do you also think that stocks are a great investment if they go up today and a terrible investment tomorrow if they go down??

Since businesses eventually have to pass on costs to consumers, PPI is considered a leading indicator of where the CPI is going. PPI was 9.7% for 2021 (i.e., above the 7% for the CPI), meaning there are likely more consumer price increases coming.

You sound old, confused and you probably rely on Viagra.

[Anonymous]

At this point I support the GOP’s bill. 4.5% isn’t some crazy low number - in fact it’s double the inflation Biden came into office with!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The inflationary drivers are already starting to head back in the right direction and will smooth out by the time the midterms roll around.

The Republicans will have to latch on to some other faux outrage. Maybe they can fabricate something new about Hunter, or some other nonsense again.

Really?

Seems as if gas prices are rising again.

https://www.wnct.com/news/north-carolina/aaa-warns-of-gas-prices-rising-in-north-carolina/

[Anonymous]

The GOP plan to fix the economy is apparently being put together by the same brain trust that has been working on a replacement for Obamacare for the last ten years.

No solutions, just political theater. Block any and all legislation and then complain about the results.