Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Is Morning Consult well regarded?

It's an online poll. I'm not sure how they get their respondents. Live-caller polls (like Monmouth, Marist, NYTimes/Siena, ABC/WaPo) are the gold standard.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

NC is the next VA is the next one or two election cycles. People who don't want to live in FL are choosing NC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The only way Biden doesn't win PA is if the GOP is successful in getting mail-in votes tossed. There is no legal justification for it. None.

Monmouth also tweeted that 700 THOUSAND absentee ballots in PA have yet to be returned, and if they don’t arrive by Tuesday, could cost Biden 3-4 points. Absentee ballots could be the death of this election.

I think a lot of people are hanging onto their absentee ballots and choosing to vote in person on Election Day due to all the fearmongering about mail-in ballots. Also, some of those ballots are Trump voters. The current breakdown of absentee ballots by party registration is 52% Dem, 34% GOP and 14% independent.

this is what I was going to say. That doesn't mean 700k votes for Biden won't be counted. Granted if it's tight, a 200k vote advantage or whatever in those 700k could make a difference.

[Anonymous]

This is a barometer in the Trump supporting part of Florida

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is a barometer in the Trump supporting part of Florida

pleasepleasepleaseplease

[Anonymous]

🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:538:

Biden's chance of winning AZ 70%

Biden's chance of winning FL 67%

Biden's chance of winning GA 58%

Biden's chance of winning TX 36% (aka greater than 1/3)

Say what you will about Nate Silver, but he shows how he uses actual data.

His data is only as good as the polls he gets, so let’s hope those are right.

You realize there are a LOT of public pollsters, right? And that many of them are often very good?

Trafalgar was almost 100% right in 2016 and, called all the Rust Belt for Trump and got the electoral college numbers correct. I’ll go with them. All these other pollsters have been proven to wildly underestimate Trump support and turnout.

Look at the Wisconsin early voting numbers and tell me you’re not scared. These polls are going to be more off than they were in 2016.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:538:

Biden's chance of winning AZ 70%

Biden's chance of winning FL 67%

Biden's chance of winning GA 58%

Biden's chance of winning TX 36% (aka greater than 1/3)

Say what you will about Nate Silver, but he shows how he uses actual data.

His data is only as good as the polls he gets, so let’s hope those are right.

You realize there are a LOT of public pollsters, right? And that many of them are often very good?

Trafalgar was almost 100% right in 2016 and, called all the Rust Belt for Trump and got the electoral college numbers correct. I’ll go with them. All these other pollsters have been proven to wildly underestimate Trump support and turnout.

Look at the Wisconsin early voting numbers and tell me you’re not scared. These polls are going to be more off than they were in 2016.

I couldn’t find Trafalgar’s poll results for 2016; where are you seeing them?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:538:

Biden's chance of winning AZ 70%

Biden's chance of winning FL 67%

Biden's chance of winning GA 58%

Biden's chance of winning TX 36% (aka greater than 1/3)

Say what you will about Nate Silver, but he shows how he uses actual data.

His data is only as good as the polls he gets, so let’s hope those are right.

You realize there are a LOT of public pollsters, right? And that many of them are often very good?

Trafalgar was almost 100% right in 2016 and, called all the Rust Belt for Trump and got the electoral college numbers correct. I’ll go with them. All these other pollsters have been proven to wildly underestimate Trump support and turnout.

Look at the Wisconsin early voting numbers and tell me you’re not scared. These polls are going to be more off than they were in 2016.

I'm looking - and not seeing what you are seeing, I guess?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/wisconsin-voters.html

There is ample evidence that Democratic turnout in Wisconsin is skyrocketing.

Eight counties, including Dane County, the state’s most Democratic county and home to Madison, have exceeded their 2016 turnout, according to Wisconsin Election Commission data released on Monday.

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

At the same time, the state’s 25 counties with the lowest pre-Election Day turnout relative to 2016 are all rural enclaves that voted for President Trump four years ago.

What are you looking at that shows Dems should feel more nervous than we do?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:538:

Biden's chance of winning AZ 70%

Biden's chance of winning FL 67%

Biden's chance of winning GA 58%

Biden's chance of winning TX 36% (aka greater than 1/3)

Say what you will about Nate Silver, but he shows how he uses actual data.

His data is only as good as the polls he gets, so let’s hope those are right.

You realize there are a LOT of public pollsters, right? And that many of them are often very good?

Trafalgar was almost 100% right in 2016 and, called all the Rust Belt for Trump and got the electoral college numbers correct. I’ll go with them. All these other pollsters have been proven to wildly underestimate Trump support and turnout.

Look at the Wisconsin early voting numbers and tell me you’re not scared. These polls are going to be more off than they were in 2016.

Even a broken, dishonest clock is correct sometimes. Trafalgar and Cahaly are disgraces. He was on Hannity recently saying without evidence that there is so much fraud in PA that it could change the results by 4 points. F--k him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Trafalgar was almost 100% right in 2016 and, called all the Rust Belt for Trump and got the electoral college numbers correct. I’ll go with them. All these other pollsters have been proven to wildly underestimate Trump support and turnout.

Look at the Wisconsin early voting numbers and tell me you’re not scared. These polls are going to be more off than they were in 2016.

All of the leading polling firms had adjusted their methodology after 2016 and were pretty accurate in 2018.

And I have some news for you...the GOP are not the ones mostly using mail-in voting in Wisconsin. Quite the opposite actually if you know anything about the messaging in the state around voting process and belief in COVID.

[Anonymous]

Trump will pivot and say all votes should be counted.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323298398041186304?s=20

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

It's funny because the Supreme Court is basically throwing out more Republican ballots now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Yes, thanks for posting. I’m the PP who posted about the 700k unreturned ballots in PA. Saw this too and thought it was reassuring. That said, even 9%-63,000 ballots- would be consequential in PA. But this is definitely at least a much smaller red flag.