If it came down to Hogan vs Jealous in General Election who would you vote for?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No way someone who has never held an elected , political office will ever get my vote if they are running for governor or President. We see how well Trump has worked out.

Uh, that was Hogan.

[Anonymous]

Well, Jealous commissioned a poll recently, that shows him down by 9 points. Compare that to June polls that had him down by 17 and 14.7 in June.

The new poll says Jealous lags outside the Baltimore/Howard/MoCo/PG corridor by 18 points. For context, Erlich and Hogan won those more rural areas by 30 points. O'Malley lost them by 9 and still won the general election.

So Jealous has some work to do, but he's heading in the right direction. Three months left.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well, Jealous commissioned a poll recently, that shows him down by 9 points. Compare that to June polls that had him down by 17 and 14.7 in June.

The new poll says Jealous lags outside the Baltimore/Howard/MoCo/PG corridor by 18 points. For context, Erlich and Hogan won those more rural areas by 30 points. O'Malley lost them by 9 and still won the general election.

So Jealous has some work to do, but he's heading in the right direction. Three months left.

You are comparing polls by different pollsters. His house pollster would tend to be the most favorable. In any case, you can only see a reliable trend line when you are comparing polls taken under the same methodology by the same pollsters.

[Anonymous]

Polls also sad no way Trump wins. Your point?

[Anonymous]

Wow some folks are defensive.

[Anonymous]

Gov Ben Jealous all the way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well, Jealous commissioned a poll recently, that shows him down by 9 points. Compare that to June polls that had him down by 17 and 14.7 in June.

The new poll says Jealous lags outside the Baltimore/Howard/MoCo/PG corridor by 18 points. For context, Erlich and Hogan won those more rural areas by 30 points. O'Malley lost them by 9 and still won the general election.

So Jealous has some work to do, but he's heading in the right direction. Three months left.

The alternative spin is that he's down hugely (nine points is bad) against a Republican governor in one of the most staunchly Democratic states in the country in a year where Republicans are very unpopular, and especially so in blue leaning areas of the country.

The Democratic primary was in June so it's quite likely the polling reflects the disparate wings of the Democratic party unifying under him. Prior to the primary Jealous was little known and there were multiple candidates. Now he's the official candidate so the Democrats are rallying to him even if they didn't like him before. This jump is typical polling pattern for pre and post-primary candidates.

Maryland being Maryland, Jealous always had a good shot at defeating Hogan. I don't think he will pull it off, but I also don't think his level of support will be based on who he is and his platform but simply because he's a Democrat.

[Anonymous]

Although I've never previously ever voted for any GOP candidates, Hogan is a better counterbalance to the state's legislature.

[Anonymous]

Gonzales poll shows Hogan with a 16pt lead:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-md-hogan-jealous-poll-20180813-story.html

About 71 percent of those surveyed said they approve of the job Hogan is doing, while 21 percent disapprove, according to the poll. About 63 percent of Marylanders said they believe the state is on the right track, while 21 percent said it’s headed in the wrong direction.

Hogan leads on the Eastern Shore, 72 percent to 24 percent; Western Maryland, 71 to 21 percent; Baltimore County, 63 to 27 percent; and Anne Arundel County, 61 to 33 percent.

Jealous leads in Montgomery County, 60 percent to 25 percent; Prince George’s County, 46 to 33; and Baltimore City, 44 to 38.

“Something is happening in the city and Prince George’s County,” Gonzales said of Hogan’s poll results, which are considered strong for a Republican in those predominately African-American jurisdictions. “If he gets 33 percent in Prince George’s County on Election Day, he’ll get re-elected.”

Jealous is strongest “among liberal white voters,” Gonzales said.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Gonzales poll shows Hogan with a 16pt lead:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-md-hogan-jealous-poll-20180813-story.html

About 71 percent of those surveyed said they approve of the job Hogan is doing, while 21 percent disapprove, according to the poll. About 63 percent of Marylanders said they believe the state is on the right track, while 21 percent said it’s headed in the wrong direction.

Hogan leads on the Eastern Shore, 72 percent to 24 percent; Western Maryland, 71 to 21 percent; Baltimore County, 63 to 27 percent; and Anne Arundel County, 61 to 33 percent.

Jealous leads in Montgomery County, 60 percent to 25 percent; Prince George’s County, 46 to 33; and Baltimore City, 44 to 38.

“Something is happening in the city and Prince George’s County,” Gonzales said of Hogan’s poll results, which are considered strong for a Republican in those predominately African-American jurisdictions. “If he gets 33 percent in Prince George’s County on Election Day, he’ll get re-elected.”

Jealous is strongest “among liberal white voters,” Gonzales said.[/quote

How is Jealous up in Mont County by that much. Everyone I know here likes Hogan and prefer him to Jealous.]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gonzales poll shows Hogan with a 16pt lead:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-md-hogan-jealous-poll-20180813-story.html

About 71 percent of those surveyed said they approve of the job Hogan is doing, while 21 percent disapprove, according to the poll. About 63 percent of Marylanders said they believe the state is on the right track, while 21 percent said it’s headed in the wrong direction.

Hogan leads on the Eastern Shore, 72 percent to 24 percent; Western Maryland, 71 to 21 percent; Baltimore County, 63 to 27 percent; and Anne Arundel County, 61 to 33 percent.

Jealous leads in Montgomery County, 60 percent to 25 percent; Prince George’s County, 46 to 33; and Baltimore City, 44 to 38.

“Something is happening in the city and Prince George’s County,” Gonzales said of Hogan’s poll results, which are considered strong for a Republican in those predominately African-American jurisdictions. “If he gets 33 percent in Prince George’s County on Election Day, he’ll get re-elected.”

Jealous is strongest “among liberal white voters,” Gonzales said.[/quote

How is Jealous up in Mont County by that much. Everyone I know here likes Hogan and prefer him to Jealous.]

Agreed - I like Hogan and think he will win, but no way he is further behind in MoCo than Baltimore City and PG County. Do I need to put up a Hogan yard sign in my Chevy Chase neighborhood?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gonzales poll shows Hogan with a 16pt lead:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-md-hogan-jealous-poll-20180813-story.html

About 71 percent of those surveyed said they approve of the job Hogan is doing, while 21 percent disapprove, according to the poll. About 63 percent of Marylanders said they believe the state is on the right track, while 21 percent said it’s headed in the wrong direction.

Hogan leads on the Eastern Shore, 72 percent to 24 percent; Western Maryland, 71 to 21 percent; Baltimore County, 63 to 27 percent; and Anne Arundel County, 61 to 33 percent.

Jealous leads in Montgomery County, 60 percent to 25 percent; Prince George’s County, 46 to 33; and Baltimore City, 44 to 38.

“Something is happening in the city and Prince George’s County,” Gonzales said of Hogan’s poll results, which are considered strong for a Republican in those predominately African-American jurisdictions. “If he gets 33 percent in Prince George’s County on Election Day, he’ll get re-elected.”

Jealous is strongest “among liberal white voters,” Gonzales said.[/quote

How is Jealous up in Mont County by that much. Everyone I know here likes Hogan and prefer him to Jealous.]

Agreed - I like Hogan and think he will win, but no way he is further behind in MoCo than Baltimore City and PG County. Do I need to put up a Hogan yard sign in my Chevy Chase neighborhood?

[Anonymous]

I dislike Hogan, but I don’t think he’s comparable to Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gonzales poll shows Hogan with a 16pt lead:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-md-hogan-jealous-poll-20180813-story.html

About 71 percent of those surveyed said they approve of the job Hogan is doing, while 21 percent disapprove, according to the poll. About 63 percent of Marylanders said they believe the state is on the right track, while 21 percent said it’s headed in the wrong direction.

Hogan leads on the Eastern Shore, 72 percent to 24 percent; Western Maryland, 71 to 21 percent; Baltimore County, 63 to 27 percent; and Anne Arundel County, 61 to 33 percent.

Jealous leads in Montgomery County, 60 percent to 25 percent; Prince George’s County, 46 to 33; and Baltimore City, 44 to 38.

“Something is happening in the city and Prince George’s County,” Gonzales said of Hogan’s poll results, which are considered strong for a Republican in those predominately African-American jurisdictions. “If he gets 33 percent in Prince George’s County on Election Day, he’ll get re-elected.”

Jealous is strongest “among liberal white voters,” Gonzales said.[/quote

How is Jealous up in Mont County by that much. Everyone I know here likes Hogan and prefer him to Jealous.]

Agreed - I like Hogan and think he will win, but no way he is further behind in MoCo than Baltimore City and PG County. Do I need to put up a Hogan yard sign in my Chevy Chase neighborhood?

Clarksburg resident here who will have to put up a Hogan sign for sure!

[Anonymous]

There are two hogan signs on our street in Bethesda. One is at the home of people we already knew to be white trash. The other is at the home of the parents of one of the kids in my DS theater group. I was absolutely floored when I saw it, for a day or so I was convinced someone was playing a prank on them because they weren't home when I first noticed it. But it's clear now that they put it there. We weren't really all that chatty before, but now we're going to completely shun them.