SVB Bank Run: Fed Calling Emergency Meeting

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First Republic stock is down 75% in a day and has been halted.

Western Alliance's down 84%, while PacWest Bancorp and Zions Bank Corporation has declined more than 40%. Regional banks are getting hammered over concerns of a contagion.

This ain't over.

It’s not contagion. It’s the very rationale realization that these equities were grossly overvalued last week in light of these banks’ large unrealized losses. They won’t go bust, but they will only eek out meager profits as they wait for their UST and MBS portfolios to run off.

Lol. Losing 85% in total market cap overnight is way more than just a correction due to being overvalued. It is literally speculation that First Republic and Western Alliance are now in trouble too. If they go kaput, it means contagion because that will be 4 banks going under.

Shorts are doubling and tripling down to try to spook depositors. These banks have much stickier retail deposits than SVB. The average uninsured SVB account held $4.3M….that’s insane. Anyways, the Fed’s liquidity backstop makes the deposit run pretty moot at this point (at least for the next year).

You can drive the equity price of First Republic down to $1 and it will still be able to operate as a boring bank and remain well capitalized. Bank capital is based on the “paid in” amount, not the market value.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More banks than SVB are failing

* FIRST REPUBLIC BANK HALTED FOR VOLATILITY, DOWN 65%
* PACWEST HALTED FOR VOLATILITY; DROPPED 41% TO LOWEST ON RECORD
* REGIONS HALTED FOR VOLATILITY AFTER PARING 31% DROP TO 20%
* WESTERN ALLIANCE SINKS A RECORD 76%; HALTED FOR VOLATILITY

Those are their stock prices. It doesn't mean they can no longer conduct their banking operations.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile the market value of SVB is approx $135 billion with over $175 billion in deposits. If the unrealized losses aren't reversed in a year the FDIC's insurance fund will drop by 30% from just one bank failure. Hold on people, it's gonna get worse.

The assets have been auctioned off, with the Feds guaranteeing access to cash by the depositors.

Problem averted unless you are a bond holder or investor in the bank itself, in which case, so what?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First Republic stock is down 75% in a day and has been halted.

Western Alliance's down 84%, while PacWest Bancorp and Zions Bank Corporation has declined more than 40%. Regional banks are getting hammered over concerns of a contagion.

This ain't over.

It’s not contagion. It’s the very rationale realization that these equities were grossly overvalued last week in light of these banks’ large unrealized losses. They won’t go bust, but they will only eek out meager profits as they wait for their UST and MBS portfolios to run off.

Lol. Losing 85% in total market cap overnight is way more than just a correction due to being overvalued. It is literally speculation that First Republic and Western Alliance are now in trouble too. If they go kaput, it means contagion because that will be 4 banks going under.

Shorts are doubling and tripling down to try to spook depositors. These banks have much stickier retail deposits than SVB. The average uninsured SVB account held $4.3M….that’s insane. Anyways, the Fed’s liquidity backstop makes the deposit run pretty moot at this point (at least for the next year).

You can drive the equity price of First Republic down to $1 and it will still be able to operate as a boring bank and remain well capitalized. Bank capital is based on the “paid in” amount, not the market value.

+1

So much of this is right wing billionaires trying to take down the US economy and prop up crypto.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile the market value of SVB is approx $135 billion with over $175 billion in deposits. If the unrealized losses aren't reversed in a year the FDIC's insurance fund will drop by 30% from just one bank failure. Hold on people, it's gonna get worse.

The assets have been auctioned off, with the Feds guaranteeing access to cash by the depositors.

Problem averted unless you are a bond holder or investor in the bank itself, in which case, so what?

Did the auction actually cover the liabilities, or did the FDIC just blow a hole in its reserves that will have to be filled by higher fees?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First Republic stock is down 75% in a day and has been halted.

Western Alliance's down 84%, while PacWest Bancorp and Zions Bank Corporation has declined more than 40%. Regional banks are getting hammered over concerns of a contagion.

This ain't over.

It’s not contagion. It’s the very rationale realization that these equities were grossly overvalued last week in light of these banks’ large unrealized losses. They won’t go bust, but they will only eek out meager profits as they wait for their UST and MBS portfolios to run off.

Lol. Losing 85% in total market cap overnight is way more than just a correction due to being overvalued. It is literally speculation that First Republic and Western Alliance are now in trouble too. If they go kaput, it means contagion because that will be 4 banks going under.

Shorts are doubling and tripling down to try to spook depositors. These banks have much stickier retail deposits than SVB. The average uninsured SVB account held $4.3M….that’s insane. Anyways, the Fed’s liquidity backstop makes the deposit run pretty moot at this point (at least for the next year).

You can drive the equity price of First Republic down to $1 and it will still be able to operate as a boring bank and remain well capitalized. Bank capital is based on the “paid in” amount, not the market value.

+1

So much of this is right wing billionaires trying to take down the US economy and prop up crypto.

Crypto up nearly 20% in the last 36 hours. You can see the play happening in real time.

[Anonymous]

Should investigate who was shorting those banks...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First Republic stock is down 75% in a day and has been halted.

Western Alliance's down 84%, while PacWest Bancorp and Zions Bank Corporation has declined more than 40%. Regional banks are getting hammered over concerns of a contagion.

This ain't over.

It’s not contagion. It’s the very rationale realization that these equities were grossly overvalued last week in light of these banks’ large unrealized losses. They won’t go bust, but they will only eek out meager profits as they wait for their UST and MBS portfolios to run off.

Lol. Losing 85% in total market cap overnight is way more than just a correction due to being overvalued. It is literally speculation that First Republic and Western Alliance are now in trouble too. If they go kaput, it means contagion because that will be 4 banks going under.

Shorts are doubling and tripling down to try to spook depositors. These banks have much stickier retail deposits than SVB. The average uninsured SVB account held $4.3M….that’s insane. Anyways, the Fed’s liquidity backstop makes the deposit run pretty moot at this point (at least for the next year).

You can drive the equity price of First Republic down to $1 and it will still be able to operate as a boring bank and remain well capitalized. Bank capital is based on the “paid in” amount, not the market value.

+1

So much of this is right wing billionaires trying to take down the US economy and prop up crypto.

Crypto up nearly 20% in the last 36 hours. You can see the play happening in real time.

Bingo!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile the market value of SVB is approx $135 billion with over $175 billion in deposits. If the unrealized losses aren't reversed in a year the FDIC's insurance fund will drop by 30% from just one bank failure. Hold on people, it's gonna get worse.

The assets have been auctioned off, with the Feds guaranteeing access to cash by the depositors.

Problem averted unless you are a bond holder or investor in the bank itself, in which case, so what?

Did the auction actually cover the liabilities, or did the FDIC just blow a hole in its reserves that will have to be filled by higher fees?

It’s not clear to me that the FDIC has sold anything yet.
The National Bank of Santa Clara can go to the Fed and swap long dated Treasuries for cash.

[Anonymous]

Devastating Forbes article on SVB.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/noahbarsky/2023/03/12/silicon-valley-bank-proxy-shows-boards-secret-yearlong-risk-panic/?ss=cio-network&sh=759c3fb41e7b

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile the market value of SVB is approx $135 billion with over $175 billion in deposits. If the unrealized losses aren't reversed in a year the FDIC's insurance fund will drop by 30% from just one bank failure. Hold on people, it's gonna get worse.

The assets have been auctioned off, with the Feds guaranteeing access to cash by the depositors.

Problem averted unless you are a bond holder or investor in the bank itself, in which case, so what?

Did the auction actually cover the liabilities, or did the FDIC just blow a hole in its reserves that will have to be filled by higher fees?

It’s not clear to me that the FDIC has sold anything yet.
The National Bank of Santa Clara can go to the Fed and swap long dated Treasuries for cash.

HBC bough the CVB UK assets already. Most of this is already done.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And gave bonuses to employees hours before collapse.....

I hope they claw back those bonuses. That’s pretty galling.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile the market value of SVB is approx $135 billion with over $175 billion in deposits. If the unrealized losses aren't reversed in a year the FDIC's insurance fund will drop by 30% from just one bank failure. Hold on people, it's gonna get worse.

The assets have been auctioned off, with the Feds guaranteeing access to cash by the depositors.

Problem averted unless you are a bond holder or investor in the bank itself, in which case, so what?

Did the auction actually cover the liabilities, or did the FDIC just blow a hole in its reserves that will have to be filled by higher fees?

It’s not clear to me that the FDIC has sold anything yet.
The National Bank of Santa Clara can go to the Fed and swap long dated Treasuries for cash.

HBC bough the CVB UK assets already. Most of this is already done.

The UK subsidiary was very small relative to the US parent entity. The UK subsidiary was sold off by the Resolution Directorate of the Bank of England, not the FDIC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First Republic stock is down 75% in a day and has been halted.

Western Alliance's down 84%, while PacWest Bancorp and Zions Bank Corporation has declined more than 40%. Regional banks are getting hammered over concerns of a contagion.

This ain't over.

It’s not contagion. It’s the very rationale realization that these equities were grossly overvalued last week in light of these banks’ large unrealized losses. They won’t go bust, but they will only eek out meager profits as they wait for their UST and MBS portfolios to run off.

Lol. Losing 85% in total market cap overnight is way more than just a correction due to being overvalued. It is literally speculation that First Republic and Western Alliance are now in trouble too. If they go kaput, it means contagion because that will be 4 banks going under.

Shorts are doubling and tripling down to try to spook depositors. These banks have much stickier retail deposits than SVB. The average uninsured SVB account held $4.3M….that’s insane. Anyways, the Fed’s liquidity backstop makes the deposit run pretty moot at this point (at least for the next year).

You can drive the equity price of First Republic down to $1 and it will still be able to operate as a boring bank and remain well capitalized. Bank capital is based on the “paid in” amount, not the market value.

+1

So much of this is right wing billionaires trying to take down the US economy and prop up crypto.

Crypto up nearly 20% in the last 36 hours. You can see the play happening in real time.

Which both hilarious and ironic when you consider what happened to SVB account holders and what happened to FTX/Celsius/Voyager account holders

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

They’re called fees, Brit.