except those bonds are held by other banks... whoops |
Nope, they actually are not. Banks have to take pretty punitive capital deductions for investments in other bank’s equity and debt instruments, thanks to the Basel III reforms. Fortunately, the Trump administration didn’t roll back that provision. Vast majority of SVBs equity and debt is owned by retail investors, institutional investors, and hedge funds. The loss is actually pretty small for a well diversified portfolio, a mere blip, |
The whole banking and finance industry needs to be overhauled, same as the healthcare and healthcare insurance industry. |
Last time I checked the FDIC insurance fund is $125 billion. Once First Republic, Regions and many other regional banks fail that insurance fund will be exhausted. |
They won’t fail due to a deposit run. The equity investors have finally realized that these unrealized losses mean very low returns on equity for these banks for the next 5-7 years. The banks can’t reallocate their assets into higher yield because it would mean realizing large losses. They will just need to run off their portfolio and be a boring low profit bank. That sucks for equity holders and anyone hoping to get a bonus. But it’s fine for depositors and anyone who wants a loan from the bank. Equity holders are taking the hit. Nature is healing. |
First Republic stock is down 75% in a day and has been halted.
Western Alliance's down 84%, while PacWest Bancorp and Zions Bank Corporation has declined more than 40%. Regional banks are getting hammered over concerns of a contagion. This ain't over. |
This is accurate. It makes sense to mention that in a negative event we want equity holders to take the risk. That is the nature of equity. |
The fund is rarely actually used. The FDIC uses the failed bank's assets first. |
It’s not contagion. It’s the very rationale realization that these equities were grossly overvalued last week in light of these banks’ large unrealized losses. They won’t go bust, but they will only eek out meager profits as they wait for their UST and MBS portfolios to run off. |
It’s price increases highly concentrated in a few areas. It’s not generalized price level increases. |
The authorities (both parties and almost all influential people) were in large-scale denial of the amount of risk in the system. And those large risks just bit some asses. |
Lol. Losing 85% in total market cap overnight is way more than just a correction due to being overvalued. It is literally speculation that First Republic and Western Alliance are now in trouble too. If they go kaput, it means contagion because that will be 4 banks going under. |
More banks than SVB are failing
* FIRST REPUBLIC BANK HALTED FOR VOLATILITY, DOWN 65% * PACWEST HALTED FOR VOLATILITY; DROPPED 41% TO LOWEST ON RECORD * REGIONS HALTED FOR VOLATILITY AFTER PARING 31% DROP TO 20% * WESTERN ALLIANCE SINKS A RECORD 76%; HALTED FOR VOLATILITY |
Meanwhile the market value of SVB is approx $135 billion with over $175 billion in deposits. If the unrealized losses aren't reversed in a year the FDIC's insurance fund will drop by 30% from just one bank failure. Hold on people, it's gonna get worse. |