Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

The one exterminating the Ukrainians is Zelensky. The longer this goes on, the more people and territory they will lose. The entire existence of Ukraine is now dependent on the fickle support of western nations.

They can pull the rug out from under them any time they want to, and suddenly Zelensky will get the Noriega/Saddam Hussein/Qaddafi treatment.

Zelensky isn't the one raping toddlers to death. That's the Russians. And you're supporting it.
And no matter how much you repeat the Iraq references, it doesn't erase what Russians have done (and what you're supporting).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

The one exterminating the Ukrainians is Zelensky. The longer this goes on, the more people and territory they will lose. The entire existence of Ukraine is now dependent on the fickle support of western nations.

They can pull the rug out from under them any time they want to, and suddenly Zelensky will get the Noriega/Saddam Hussein/Qaddafi treatment.

Zelensky isn't the one raping toddlers to death. That's the Russians. And you're supporting it.
And no matter how much you repeat the Iraq references, it doesn't erase what Russians have done (and what you're supporting).

That story sure seems to grow worse each time you retell it, can't wait to see how you work an incubator into it. Or maybe the toddler was in the middle of eating a yellow cake.

You may want to dismiss Iraq (and Syria/Afghanistan/Libya/Kosovo/etc.) but plenty of other countries weigh this hypocrisy when deciding which side to back.

We have a BRICS summit coming up. Wonder how many countries will express interest in joining?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

The one exterminating the Ukrainians is Zelensky. The longer this goes on, the more people and territory they will lose. The entire existence of Ukraine is now dependent on the fickle support of western nations.

They can pull the rug out from under them any time they want to, and suddenly Zelensky will get the Noriega/Saddam Hussein/Qaddafi treatment.

Zelensky isn't the one raping toddlers to death. That's the Russians. And you're supporting it.
And no matter how much you repeat the Iraq references, it doesn't erase what Russians have done (and what you're supporting).

That story sure seems to grow worse each time you retell it, can't wait to see how you work an incubator into it. Or maybe the toddler was in the middle of eating a yellow cake.

You may want to dismiss Iraq (and Syria/Afghanistan/Libya/Kosovo/etc.) but plenty of other countries weigh this hypocrisy when deciding which side to back.

We have a BRICS summit coming up. Wonder how many countries will express interest in joining?

I'm not dismissing Iraq, I'm simply saying it does not give the free pass for Russia to commit war crimes that you claim it does.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This forum is populated with glee filled right wing naysayers eager to sht on anything Ukraine does because they're ignorant and rely on Fox News to tell them what to think. Fox and newsmax or whatever idiocy “news” stations with advertisements for Mypillow and reverse mortgages.

It’s really pathetic. You all are so angry about Ukraine fighting back. Or NATO getting stronger. We all know you’ve never been to Europe and don’t like filthy foreigners and their Godless ways or whatever stupid reasons you have for supporting Russia, but it’s getting so annoying listening to you cheer on the commies.

So it’s either you chucklefks chiming in on here with complete dunning Kruger Watters talking points about how much America is spending. it’s worth it to anyone with a brain and can see it, but you can’t.

Or the other contingent on here is literally Russian proGanda AI bots or paid shills in cubicles trying to lower morale or pretend to be “pacificists” who think that Ukrainians should just give up.

Oh look the big bad weapon has come out to crush those who dare to disagree!

Big bad weapon? Did you mean wolf? I guess lost in translation with the rest of your propaganda.

Same old same old
When someone disagrees and you run out of counter arguments, just call them trolls, bots, or shills

I honestly do that as a compliment. No intelligent person would be stupid enough to support Russia in this, and you’re not supporting Russia’s side on this, right? You do agree they are the aggressor right? You can see that they invaded crimea and annexed that and are now trying to annex Ukraine and get more territory, access to the Black Sea and grain, right? They want their former glory back.

but as we have seen, America has been steadfast and helped to unite the EU. We’ve gotten NATO to start upping its funding and enlist new members. We’ve decimated Russia’s economy. We basically played this very well and used a small amount of our defensive budget for massive gains in soft and hard power globally. I think the Biden admin has done a masterful job with this. Even Mitch Mcconell agrees and republicans are in support.

You can see that, right? You’re not a Russian stooge, correct? You’re definitely not a propaganda bot. You’re an intelligent, sentient human who can understand things, right? I’m sure you are and so, from a macro perspective, can understand and agree with what I’m saying.

Russia is the aggressor. However, Russia’s economy is not decimated. It has plenty of life left to continue the destruction and ruining innocent lives.
I think being alive is more important than being right. Maybe it’s just me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The strike killed both parents of a 14-year old girl who is currently in intensive care with a skull injury.

Which begs the question. Are there situations where terrorism (and that’s what the bridge attack essentially is) is justified?
I think Ukraine has been doing extremely well in the PR war so far. Yet this is something that might (or might not?) harm their image of an innocent victim of a brutal attack of a big bad wolf. Or is anything that hurts the bad guy justified?

This was not terrorism. Russia invaded Ukraine. The Kerch bridge is used by Russia to supply its occupying troops in Crimea. It is very much a legitimate military target. Have you said a word about the thousands of Ukrainian civilians that Russia has deliberately murdered?

I thought we already agreed Russia is a bad, bad guy.
I am more interested in Ukrainian tactic. I have a feeling the world will agree with you. It’s ok to kill civilians if they are from the bad bad country.

Nobody (or at least very few) is saying it's okay to kill civilians. I feel terrible for this girl. I feel terrible for all the kids that have been impacted by Putin's ego/idiocy. But this isn't terrorism. The bridge is a legitimate military target that Ukraine should continue to pound. Russia shouldn't be encouraging its citizens to vacation in a war zone.

My goal is not to argue or counter what you said; I am just interested in how this is painted to the world and perceived by an average US person. I know now.

DP. I saw reported yesterday that the Russian government was encouraging Russians to vacation in Crimea this summer, Putin thinking they would serve as a human shield/deterrent to Ukrainian attacks.

Reported by who?
I have relatives and friends in Russia and the general consensus that it’s pretty risky to vacation there now. There is no mass campaign to go there (like there is a campaign to sign up to serve in the army, flyers everywhere).
The ones who still go are either reckless or they don’t have money for any other vacation and heard they can stay there on the cheap.

We are at the Aegean coast in Turkey just now and Russians are at least 50% of all vacation business. Shopkeepers speak Russian, hotels and resorts are hiring Russian speakers to serve them…nothing has changed here. Tons of them at higher end hotels and villas too.

PSA: many of them are actually Ukrainians

Lol and many aren’t.

This is true, many aren’t. What’s so funny?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1680850601779900416/mediaviewer

Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger

Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.

I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.

Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.

Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2023-01-20/445679-s_emochnaya_gruppa_pervogo_kanala_i_drugie_zhurnalisty_popali_pod_obstrel_pod_soledarom

The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.



I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.

The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.

"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo

I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.

The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.

Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ
"Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"

Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296
"The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."

They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.

What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.

Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.

"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.

"As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023. The amount of retirement benefits increased by roughly 2,438 Russian rubles compared to the previous year"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093950/average-monthly-retirement-benefit-value-russia/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%201%2C%202023,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.

"The bank also lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.5-6.5% from 5.0-7.0%"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-keeps-key-interest-rate-75-2023-04-28/#:~:text=The%20bank%20also%20lowered%20its,%2447%20billion%20from%20%2466%20billion.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/1090000/1093950-blank-754.png

If in April (three months ago) 19,300 Rub was worth USD$236, today it's worth USD$209.90, according to today's exchange rate.

In this clip of a Russian grocery store taken this week, the photographer was careful to not show the meat or seafood section.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yeNbBWBSSvQ

The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.

Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.

What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.

Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.

I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This forum is populated with glee filled right wing naysayers eager to sht on anything Ukraine does because they're ignorant and rely on Fox News to tell them what to think. Fox and newsmax or whatever idiocy “news” stations with advertisements for Mypillow and reverse mortgages.

It’s really pathetic. You all are so angry about Ukraine fighting back. Or NATO getting stronger. We all know you’ve never been to Europe and don’t like filthy foreigners and their Godless ways or whatever stupid reasons you have for supporting Russia, but it’s getting so annoying listening to you cheer on the commies.

So it’s either you chucklefks chiming in on here with complete dunning Kruger Watters talking points about how much America is spending. it’s worth it to anyone with a brain and can see it, but you can’t.

Or the other contingent on here is literally Russian proGanda AI bots or paid shills in cubicles trying to lower morale or pretend to be “pacificists” who think that Ukrainians should just give up.

Oh look the big bad weapon has come out to crush those who dare to disagree!

Big bad weapon? Did you mean wolf? I guess lost in translation with the rest of your propaganda.

Same old same old
When someone disagrees and you run out of counter arguments, just call them trolls, bots, or shills

I honestly do that as a compliment. No intelligent person would be stupid enough to support Russia in this, and you’re not supporting Russia’s side on this, right? You do agree they are the aggressor right? You can see that they invaded crimea and annexed that and are now trying to annex Ukraine and get more territory, access to the Black Sea and grain, right? They want their former glory back.

but as we have seen, America has been steadfast and helped to unite the EU. We’ve gotten NATO to start upping its funding and enlist new members. We’ve decimated Russia’s economy. We basically played this very well and used a small amount of our defensive budget for massive gains in soft and hard power globally. I think the Biden admin has done a masterful job with this. Even Mitch Mcconell agrees and republicans are in support.

You can see that, right? You’re not a Russian stooge, correct? You’re definitely not a propaganda bot. You’re an intelligent, sentient human who can understand things, right? I’m sure you are and so, from a macro perspective, can understand and agree with what I’m saying.

I don’t get it. Are you saying invading other countries is wrong? Annexing other people’s land is bad?

Is this, like, a new policy of some sort?

I’m saying it sounds like you are a Russian stooge. Read my post again before commenting. Go get your shine box.

I don’t care how I sound to you. I doubt it’s as stupid as an American pontificating on the evils of invading other countries. Only America is allowed to invade. Then it’s part of god’s plan.

DP... Oh come now. Don't be so ignorant and naive. A huge number of the United States' foreign interventions came directly as a result of prior meddling by the Soviet Union or Russia. For the last 70 years Russia ran all around the globe staging coups, installing dictators, arming, funding and propping up warlords and terrorist groups. And right now, Russia is the only country currently actively invading and attempting to colonize another country. In context of historic reality, for some pro-Russia stooge to presume to wag their finger at the US over foreign interventions is absolutely preposterous.

DP but it’s amazing how true it still sounds if you switch Russia/USSR and the US in your tirade

Politics is politics. Every large player wants to extend influence. Some are just considered the good guys because they are setting the rules

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

Serious question: how many Ukrainian lives can they afford to lose for this to still stand true?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

The one exterminating the Ukrainians is Zelensky. The longer this goes on, the more people and territory they will lose. The entire existence of Ukraine is now dependent on the fickle support of western nations.

They can pull the rug out from under them any time they want to, and suddenly Zelensky will get the Noriega/Saddam Hussein/Qaddafi treatment.

DP. I think there will be continued support for years, however modest, maybe not so modest even. Look at Israel.
However it doesn’t change the fact that the lives keep being lost.
How many years of fighting is it going to be worth it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

The one exterminating the Ukrainians is Zelensky. The longer this goes on, the more people and territory they will lose. The entire existence of Ukraine is now dependent on the fickle support of western nations.

They can pull the rug out from under them any time they want to, and suddenly Zelensky will get the Noriega/Saddam Hussein/Qaddafi treatment.

DP. I think there will be continued support for years, however modest, maybe not so modest even. Look at Israel.
However it doesn’t change the fact that the lives keep being lost.
How many years of fighting is it going to be worth it?

I don't know, but right now, Russia is abducting both Ukrainian children and senior citizens, and treating them like dog sh!t. They probably don't want that for their future, if they were to surrender and spare lives.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

The one exterminating the Ukrainians is Zelensky. The longer this goes on, the more people and territory they will lose. The entire existence of Ukraine is now dependent on the fickle support of western nations.

They can pull the rug out from under them any time they want to, and suddenly Zelensky will get the Noriega/Saddam Hussein/Qaddafi treatment.

Zelensky isn't the one raping toddlers to death. That's the Russians. And you're supporting it.
And no matter how much you repeat the Iraq references, it doesn't erase what Russians have done (and what you're supporting).

That story sure seems to grow worse each time you retell it, can't wait to see how you work an incubator into it. Or maybe the toddler was in the middle of eating a yellow cake.

You may want to dismiss Iraq (and Syria/Afghanistan/Libya/Kosovo/etc.) but plenty of other countries weigh this hypocrisy when deciding which side to back.

We have a BRICS summit coming up. Wonder how many countries will express interest in joining?

I'm not dismissing Iraq, I'm simply saying it does not give the free pass for Russia to commit war crimes that you claim it does.

You’re not? Level up please: how much time did you spend on DCUM at the time weeping over Iraqi casualties, infrastructure damage and losses? Truth is, you cannot wait to shrug it off. You certainly don’t want to go to court over it, or to pay damages ever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

The one exterminating the Ukrainians is Zelensky. The longer this goes on, the more people and territory they will lose. The entire existence of Ukraine is now dependent on the fickle support of western nations.

They can pull the rug out from under them any time they want to, and suddenly Zelensky will get the Noriega/Saddam Hussein/Qaddafi treatment.

Zelensky isn't the one raping toddlers to death. That's the Russians. And you're supporting it.
And no matter how much you repeat the Iraq references, it doesn't erase what Russians have done (and what you're supporting).

That story sure seems to grow worse each time you retell it, can't wait to see how you work an incubator into it. Or maybe the toddler was in the middle of eating a yellow cake.

You may want to dismiss Iraq (and Syria/Afghanistan/Libya/Kosovo/etc.) but plenty of other countries weigh this hypocrisy when deciding which side to back.

We have a BRICS summit coming up. Wonder how many countries will express interest in joining?

I'm not dismissing Iraq, I'm simply saying it does not give the free pass for Russia to commit war crimes that you claim it does.

You’re not? Level up please: how much time did you spend on DCUM at the time weeping over Iraqi casualties, infrastructure damage and losses? Truth is, you cannot wait to shrug it off. You certainly don’t want to go to court over it, or to pay damages ever.

It doesn't f'ing matter how much time I gnashed my teeth over Iraq or not. (I wasn't even aware of DCUM at the time anyway). It doesn't give Russia a free pass to commit the war crimes like you think it does. I doubt you spent much time weeping over Iraq yourself.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1680850601779900416/mediaviewer

Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger

Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.

I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.

Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.

Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2023-01-20/445679-s_emochnaya_gruppa_pervogo_kanala_i_drugie_zhurnalisty_popali_pod_obstrel_pod_soledarom

The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.



I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.

The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.

"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo

I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.

The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.

Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ
"Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"

Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296
"The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."

They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.

What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.

Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.

"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.

"As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023. The amount of retirement benefits increased by roughly 2,438 Russian rubles compared to the previous year"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093950/average-monthly-retirement-benefit-value-russia/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%201%2C%202023,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.

"The bank also lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.5-6.5% from 5.0-7.0%"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-keeps-key-interest-rate-75-2023-04-28/#:~:text=The%20bank%20also%20lowered%20its,%2447%20billion%20from%20%2466%20billion.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/1090000/1093950-blank-754.png

If in April (three months ago) 19,300 Rub was worth USD$236, today it's worth USD$209.90, according to today's exchange rate.

In this clip of a Russian grocery store taken this week, the photographer was careful to not show the meat or seafood section.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yeNbBWBSSvQ

The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.

Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.

What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.

Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.

I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.

Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.

"Ukraine responds reciprocally to Russian blackmail, will consider “vessels heading to Russian ports as potential carriers of military cargo”"
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/20/ukraine-responds-reciprocally-to-russian-blackmail-will-consider-vessels-heading-to-russian-ports-as-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo/

"Russia Lays Mines in Black Sea to Block Ukrainian Ports"
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.

"In 2021, 38,551 ships transited Bosphorus of the Turkish Straights (down from 43,999 in 2018)."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251644/number-of-transits-through-the-turkish-straits/

"COMMERCIAL VESSELS MADE 10,550 CALLS TO BLACK SEA PORTS IN RUSSIA, TURKEY, BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE, GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA IN THE SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING TO VESSEL TRACKING DATA FROM LLOYD’S LIST INTELLIGENCE."
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1141687/Black-Sea-arrivals-rising-amid-changing-trade-dynamics

Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137

The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/-/media/lloyds-list/images/ukraine-russia-conflict/black_sea.jpg

I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.

[Anonymous]

And I'm not saying to starve the pensioners. I'm saying that Russia's war machine would, for the most part, grind to a screeching halt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

Serious question: how many Ukrainian lives can they afford to lose for this to still stand true?

Why is this a question for Ukraine? Why is the same not a question for Russia? Russia has already lost more troops and equipment in the last 2 years than it has in every single other war combined since the 1970s, to include Afghan, Chechen, Dagestan, Georgia, Syria, African conflicts and everywhere else. The Russians were able to last 20 years with the Afghan war before deciding it was unsustainable but a.) that was with the much greater might and resources, engineering, logistic and manufacturing capacity of the Soviet Union and b. that was with just a fraction of the losses that Russia is now suffering in Ukraine. As such, Russia cannot keep this going indefinitely. They cannot last 20 years. They would be lucky to last 5 years, and we're already 2 years into that.

Ukraine is fighting for its very survival. They are fighting for their identity, their language, their way of life, their will to become a part of the European community, and so much more. But what is Russia fighting for? They are fighting because Putin wills it. Because Russia wants their resources. Because of lies about "Nazis" and other stupidity. Russia's rationale for war is far weaker than Ukraine's rationale for resisting them.