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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1680850601779900416/mediaviewer

Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger [/quote]

Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.

I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.[/quote]

Nothingburger?  Stalemate?  You're looking in all the wrong places.

Look carefully at this video.  It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine.  There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513.  At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot.  It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2023-01-20/445679-s_emochnaya_gruppa_pervogo_kanala_i_drugie_zhurnalisty_popali_pod_obstrel_pod_soledarom

The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.

[img]https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?[/img]

I don't think Putin can last 10 years.  I'm betting on two.  It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing.  There's just too much churn inside Russia.

The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs?  The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.

"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days.  Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation.  Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo

I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families.  (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State").  Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives."  Hope I'm wrong.

The Russian propaganda is still in disarray.  Russian's are not used to mixed messaging.  It's like a whip and glove show.

Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ
"Why couldn't you live with us?  What was so bad about it?" 
"Who mistreated you?  Who bothered you?  Here is a question - why do they hate us so much?  Why?  Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest.  We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"

Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296
"The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all.  What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."[/quote]

They  are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.

What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil. 
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope. [/quote]

Sausage-making?  That's the State Duma's job.

"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve.  For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated.  I think it's closer to two.

"As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023. The amount of retirement benefits increased by roughly 2,438 Russian rubles compared to the previous year"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093950/average-monthly-retirement-benefit-value-russia/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%201%2C%202023,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

That's a 12% increase in one year.  However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount?  I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.

"The bank also lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.5-6.5% from 5.0-7.0%"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-keeps-key-interest-rate-75-2023-04-28/#:~:text=The%20bank%20also%20lowered%20its,%2447%20billion%20from%20%2466%20billion.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/1090000/1093950-blank-754.png

If in April (three months ago) 19,300 Rub was worth USD$236, today it's worth USD$209.90, according to today's exchange rate.

In this clip of a Russian grocery store taken this week, the photographer was careful to not show the meat or seafood section.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yeNbBWBSSvQ

The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable.  However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!).  Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18.  That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month.  Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.

Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity.  That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.[/quote]

What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche. 
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general. 
However everything is available. 
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.

Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.

I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far. 
[/quote]

Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning.  I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.

"Ukraine responds reciprocally to Russian blackmail, will consider “vessels heading to Russian ports as potential carriers of military cargo”"
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/20/ukraine-responds-reciprocally-to-russian-blackmail-will-consider-vessels-heading-to-russian-ports-as-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo/

"Russia Lays Mines in Black Sea to Block Ukrainian Ports"
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

This is a significant development.  It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea.  The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off.  Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.

"In 2021, 38,551 ships transited Bosphorus of the Turkish Straights (down from 43,999 in 2018)."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251644/number-of-transits-through-the-turkish-straits/

"COMMERCIAL VESSELS MADE 10,550 CALLS TO BLACK SEA PORTS IN RUSSIA, TURKEY, BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE, GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA IN THE SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING TO VESSEL TRACKING DATA FROM LLOYD’S LIST INTELLIGENCE."
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1141687/Black-Sea-arrivals-rising-amid-changing-trade-dynamics

Q2 2022
1. Russia	5043
2. Romania	2359
3. Turkey	1167
4. Bulgaria	880
5. Ukraine	610
6. Georgia	354
7. Moldova	137

The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/-/media/lloyds-list/images/ukraine-russia-conflict/black_sea.jpg

I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse?  Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily.  Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.[/quote]

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