War with Iran

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I study Saudi Arabia.

MBS did not ask for the US to bomb Iran. You are basing this Israeli talking point on one piece in the right-leaning, Bezos-owned Washington Post.

Don’t be naive and use some common sense. Nobody would ask to bring this upon themselves. They are in the direct line of fire.

Lindsey graham went to Saudi Arabia two weeks ago and met with MBS. Apparently to convince him to support and advocate for the war. MBS said no.

Lindsey went back and told Trump that MBS was on board. Trump told others who then told Wapo.

Not sure if this is all true. But MBS is pissed. So maybe. I wouldn’t put it past Lindsey to lie about this.

Surely you realize politicians/leaders are apt to say one thing in private and then another thing publicly, right?

“By all means, please deal with Iran. We are tired of their antics.” (Privately to a coalition that likely had notice that the attack would occur)

“I am outraged! Of course I would never support such a thing!” (Public spin)

I mean, that’s just politics…especially when it comes to the ME.

Sure, that happens.

This could certainly get better and turn out to be better for Saudi Arabia in the long run. Or it could get much, much worse. It's chaos right now.

So, no, I don't think MBS wanted this, as the PP who has studied Saudi Arabia said above.

My father worked in the Gulf for 40 years.

People don’t realize the rulers of these countries are dealing with multiple existential threats at any given time:

1. The threat of their own people realizing that they do not want to be ruled by an autocratic regime- these countries aren’t some paradise and there are plenty of very unhappy people;
2. The lack of natural water sources to sustain the population;
3. The inability to grow enough food to sustain the population;
4. Being suddenly unable to sell or tap into their main natural resources, oil and natural gas;
5. Being dragged into conflagrations like what we see now.

#5 can create a domino effect triggering any of the other threats. Iran can now bomb desalination plants. They can bomb oil rigs. Cutting off plane and boat traffic can literally starve the population. The population can suddenly realize “our government is not competent and doesn’t keep us safe.”

This is a nightmare endgame scenario for the Gulf and Iran knows this and that is why they are hitting the gulf so hard. They are trying to create pressure on the US and Israel to back off. It is strategic and smart.

The gulf states made their bed with Israel and the US and this is what they got.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I study Saudi Arabia.

MBS did not ask for the US to bomb Iran. You are basing this Israeli talking point on one piece in the right-leaning, Bezos-owned Washington Post.

Don’t be naive and use some common sense. Nobody would ask to bring this upon themselves. They are in the direct line of fire.

Lindsey graham went to Saudi Arabia two weeks ago and met with MBS. Apparently to convince him to support and advocate for the war. MBS said no.

Lindsey went back and told Trump that MBS was on board. Trump told others who then told Wapo.

Not sure if this is all true. But MBS is pissed. So maybe. I wouldn’t put it past Lindsey to lie about this.

Surely you realize politicians/leaders are apt to say one thing in private and then another thing publicly, right?

“By all means, please deal with Iran. We are tired of their antics.” (Privately to a coalition that likely had notice that the attack would occur)

“I am outraged! Of course I would never support such a thing!” (Public spin)

I mean, that’s just politics…especially when it comes to the ME.

Sure, that happens.

This could certainly get better and turn out to be better for Saudi Arabia in the long run. Or it could get much, much worse. It's chaos right now.

So, no, I don't think MBS wanted this, as the PP who has studied Saudi Arabia said above.

My father worked in the Gulf for 40 years.

People don’t realize the rulers of these countries are dealing with multiple existential threats at any given time:

1. The threat of their own people realizing that they do not want to be ruled by an autocratic regime- these countries aren’t some paradise and there are plenty of very unhappy people;
2. The lack of natural water sources to sustain the population;
3. The inability to grow enough food to sustain the population;
4. Being suddenly unable to sell or tap into their main natural resources, oil and natural gas;
5. Being dragged into conflagrations like what we see now.

#5 can create a domino effect triggering any of the other threats. Iran can now bomb desalination plants. They can bomb oil rigs. Cutting off plane and boat traffic can literally starve the population. The population can suddenly realize “our government is not competent and doesn’t keep us safe.”

This is a nightmare endgame scenario for the Gulf and Iran knows this and that is why they are hitting the gulf so hard. They are trying to create pressure on the US and Israel to back off. It is strategic and smart.

The gulf states made their bed with Israel and the US and this is what they got.

This is very good analysis, PP, and matches what I've been reading elsewhere. I never realized how vulnerable these states are, especially in regard to basics like potable water and food (they have to import around 85% of it).

[Anonymous]

The country most likely to bomb and dismantle the gulf countries desalination plants is not Iran but Israel which has the largest hegemonic ambitions in that region. Just read the Times of Israel and listen to Natalie Bennett, most likely their next leader.

Here’s why:

Israel wants control of the Suez Canal where 15% of the worlds shipped cargo passes through as well as the Straights of Hormuz where 30% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through. This is why they have invested heavily in their relationship with the UAE and are re-settling Israelis there.

[Anonymous]

Sorry, typo. Naftali Bennett

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The country most likely to bomb and dismantle the gulf countries desalination plants is not Iran but Israel which has the largest hegemonic ambitions in that region. Just read the Times of Israel and listen to Natalie Bennett, most likely their next leader.

Here’s why:

Israel wants control of the Suez Canal where 15% of the worlds shipped cargo passes through as well as the Straights of Hormuz where 30% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through. This is why they have invested heavily in their relationship with the UAE and are re-settling Israelis there.

Where is this information coming from?

Outsiders cannot “settle” in the UAE. Nonnatives cannot attain citizenship.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Did this entire war hinge on Kushner and Witkoff updating Trump? Or were experienced diplomats and analysts part of the discussion?

Probably relied on AI to a greater or lesser extent is my guess.

Also, does anyone else think the US actions on/in Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, and Mexico are all ultimately working against China?

[Anonymous]

WaPo suggests Trump is encouraging Kurds in Iran. Won’t that set off the Kurds in Turkey? Will the Kurds expect to get their own country carved out of these two nations?

EU will be forced to respond to support Turkey, a member state?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The country most likely to bomb and dismantle the gulf countries desalination plants is not Iran but Israel which has the largest hegemonic ambitions in that region. Just read the Times of Israel and listen to Natalie Bennett, most likely their next leader.

Here’s why:

Israel wants control of the Suez Canal where 15% of the worlds shipped cargo passes through as well as the Straights of Hormuz where 30% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through. This is why they have invested heavily in their relationship with the UAE and are re-settling Israelis there.

Where is this information coming from?

Outsiders cannot “settle” in the UAE. Nonnatives cannot attain citizenship.

I do not make stuff up. This was printed in the Jerusalem Post, an Israeli newspaper:

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-704293

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I study Saudi Arabia.

MBS did not ask for the US to bomb Iran. You are basing this Israeli talking point on one piece in the right-leaning, Bezos-owned Washington Post.

Don’t be naive and use some common sense. Nobody would ask to bring this upon themselves. They are in the direct line of fire.

Lindsey graham went to Saudi Arabia two weeks ago and met with MBS. Apparently to convince him to support and advocate for the war. MBS said no.

Lindsey went back and told Trump that MBS was on board. Trump told others who then told Wapo.

Not sure if this is all true. But MBS is pissed. So maybe. I wouldn’t put it past Lindsey to lie about this.

Surely you realize politicians/leaders are apt to say one thing in private and then another thing publicly, right?

“By all means, please deal with Iran. We are tired of their antics.” (Privately to a coalition that likely had notice that the attack would occur)

“I am outraged! Of course I would never support such a thing!” (Public spin)

I mean, that’s just politics…especially when it comes to the ME.

Sure, that happens.

This could certainly get better and turn out to be better for Saudi Arabia in the long run. Or it could get much, much worse. It's chaos right now.

So, no, I don't think MBS wanted this, as the PP who has studied Saudi Arabia said above.

Sigh.

If you think the US and Israel haphazardly attacked Iran without a courtesy heads up and some level of support/greenlight from allies/potential retaliators in the region then bless your heart.

[Anonymous]

Add Azerbaijan to the list of countries drawn into the war.

[Anonymous]

Thank you for blessing my heart

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Add Azerbaijan to the list of countries drawn into the war.

60% of Israel’s oil comes from Azerbaijan.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The country most likely to bomb and dismantle the gulf countries desalination plants is not Iran but Israel which has the largest hegemonic ambitions in that region. Just read the Times of Israel and listen to Natalie Bennett, most likely their next leader.

Here’s why:

Israel wants control of the Suez Canal where 15% of the worlds shipped cargo passes through as well as the Straights of Hormuz where 30% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through. This is why they have invested heavily in their relationship with the UAE and are re-settling Israelis there.

Where is this information coming from?

Outsiders cannot “settle” in the UAE. Nonnatives cannot attain citizenship.

I do not make stuff up. This was printed in the Jerusalem Post, an Israeli newspaper:

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-704293

Actually, you are.

The Gulf countries are full of churches, Christian schools, etc., as well. This does not mean that Christians are “settling” in these countries. This does not mean that these populations will be there for generations.

These communities are all built with the understanding that Christians and Jews are temporary residents who will eventually go back to their home countries. They CANNOT attain any sort of citizenship in Gulf countries and can be told to leave at any time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I study Saudi Arabia.

MBS did not ask for the US to bomb Iran. You are basing this Israeli talking point on one piece in the right-leaning, Bezos-owned Washington Post.

Don’t be naive and use some common sense. Nobody would ask to bring this upon themselves. They are in the direct line of fire.

Lindsey graham went to Saudi Arabia two weeks ago and met with MBS. Apparently to convince him to support and advocate for the war. MBS said no.

Lindsey went back and told Trump that MBS was on board. Trump told others who then told Wapo.

Not sure if this is all true. But MBS is pissed. So maybe. I wouldn’t put it past Lindsey to lie about this.

Surely you realize politicians/leaders are apt to say one thing in private and then another thing publicly, right?

“By all means, please deal with Iran. We are tired of their antics.” (Privately to a coalition that likely had notice that the attack would occur)

“I am outraged! Of course I would never support such a thing!” (Public spin)

I mean, that’s just politics…especially when it comes to the ME.

Sure, that happens.

This could certainly get better and turn out to be better for Saudi Arabia in the long run. Or it could get much, much worse. It's chaos right now.

So, no, I don't think MBS wanted this, as the PP who has studied Saudi Arabia said above.

Sigh.

If you think the US and Israel haphazardly attacked Iran without a courtesy heads up and some level of support/greenlight from allies/potential retaliators in the region then bless your heart.

Not haphazardly…deliberately.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Did this entire war hinge on Kushner and Witkoff updating Trump? Or were experienced diplomats and analysts part of the discussion?

Probably relied on AI to a greater or lesser extent is my guess.

Also, does anyone else think the US actions on/in Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, and Mexico are all ultimately working against China?

If China was smart, they would try to take over Taiwan now. I don't think the opportunity will present again.