2020 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

With respect, the people of Alabama aren't fools.

Make sure you feel the same way after Jones loses his senate seat.

If the people elected someone like Mitt Romney, I'd respect that. Romney's not my cup of tea, but he's conservative and basically sane. If he beat a Democrat in Alabama, I'd totally get it, and I'd respect it even if I didn't like it. But, if they elect Roy Moore over Jones because they're pissed Jones tried to hold Trump accountable for committing crimes, yeah, I'd conclude that the white people of Alabama are fools.

[Anonymous]

McGrath raises nearly $11 million in third quarter for bid to unseat McConnell

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/465171-mcgrath-raises-nearly-11-million-in-third-quarter-for-bid-to-unseat

Amy McGrath, the Democrat who nearly flipped a conservative House district in Kentucky in 2018, raised nearly $11 million in the past three months for her bid to unseat Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), her campaign said.

McGrath pulled in $10.7 million in the third fundraising quarter, the first since announcing her Senate campaign in July. That haul is made up of more than 299,000 contributions, her campaign said. The average donation size was $36.

It’s a staggering haul for any Senate candidate, and especially a nonincumbent, exceeding the quarterly hauls of several presidential candidates. By comparison, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) raised $6 million for his White House bid, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) raised $4.8 million.

[Anonymous]

Incumbent North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis continues to poll terribly:

NC SEN poll (Meredith College):
Thom Tillis 33
Cal Cunningham 33

Ericka Smith 34
Tom Tillis 33
https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/meredith_college_poll_report_oct_2019.pdf

[Anonymous]

I don't know anything about Public Policy Polling, so grain of salt, but they have a poll that shows Collins is having trouble in Maine.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/impeachment-could-end-collins-career/

PPP’s newest Maine poll finds that Susan Collins is in trouble for reelection…and that she’s likely to find herself in more trouble no matter what side of impeachment she comes down on.

Collins is unpopular, with only 35% of voters approving of the job she’s doing to 50% who disapprove. She trails a generic Democrat for reelection 44-41. That represents a big drop for Collins compared to a poll we did last September when she led a generic Democrat by 6 points at 44-38. At that time she only trailed 64-21 among Clinton voters but in the wake of her vote on Brett Kavanaugh and the general hardening of partisan lines she’s lost a lot of her crossover support and now trails 76-12 with Clinton voters.

53% of Mainers support impeaching Donald Trump with 44% opposed. When we ask voters who they would choose if Collins opposed impeachment, her 76-12 deficit among Clinton voters grows even further to 83-8 and she goes from a 3 point deficit against a generic Democratic opponent for reelection to a 7 point deficit at 47-40.

Collins faces defeat from a different angle if she supports impeachment though. Her numbers are already a little bit soft with Republican primary voters with 53% saying they generally support her for the nomination again to 38% who say they would prefer someone else. We also tested Collins against some specific possible opponents in a primary- she trails Paul LePage 63-29 and Shawn Moody 45-36 but does lead Derek Levasseur who already entered and exited the race this year 55-10.

Things get a lot worse for Collins within the primary electorate if she supports impeachment though. Trump still has an 80% approval rating with GOP voters in the state- much higher than Collins’ 59% approval- and only 14% of primary voters support impeachment to 83% who are opposed to it. When we ask voters about the Republican primary if Collins supports impeachment there’s a 35 point net shift from supporting Collins by 15 points at 53/38 to opposing Collins by 20 points, with just 35% still wanting to nominate Collins if she supports impeachment to 55% who prefer someone else. There’s also a 32 point shift in a hypothetical match with Levasseur from her 45 point initial advantage at 55-10 to just a 13 point advantage at 37-24. And presumably supporting impeaching Trump might bring a more serious primary challenger than Levasseur out of the woodwork.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't know anything about Public Policy Polling, so grain of salt, but they have a poll that shows Collins is having trouble in Maine.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/impeachment-could-end-collins-career/

PPP’s newest Maine poll finds that Susan Collins is in trouble for reelection…and that she’s likely to find herself in more trouble no matter what side of impeachment she comes down on.

Collins is unpopular, with only 35% of voters approving of the job she’s doing to 50% who disapprove. She trails a generic Democrat for reelection 44-41. That represents a big drop for Collins compared to a poll we did last September when she led a generic Democrat by 6 points at 44-38. At that time she only trailed 64-21 among Clinton voters but in the wake of her vote on Brett Kavanaugh and the general hardening of partisan lines she’s lost a lot of her crossover support and now trails 76-12 with Clinton voters.

53% of Mainers support impeaching Donald Trump with 44% opposed. When we ask voters who they would choose if Collins opposed impeachment, her 76-12 deficit among Clinton voters grows even further to 83-8 and she goes from a 3 point deficit against a generic Democratic opponent for reelection to a 7 point deficit at 47-40.

Collins faces defeat from a different angle if she supports impeachment though. Her numbers are already a little bit soft with Republican primary voters with 53% saying they generally support her for the nomination again to 38% who say they would prefer someone else. We also tested Collins against some specific possible opponents in a primary- she trails Paul LePage 63-29 and Shawn Moody 45-36 but does lead Derek Levasseur who already entered and exited the race this year 55-10.

Things get a lot worse for Collins within the primary electorate if she supports impeachment though. Trump still has an 80% approval rating with GOP voters in the state- much higher than Collins’ 59% approval- and only 14% of primary voters support impeachment to 83% who are opposed to it. When we ask voters about the Republican primary if Collins supports impeachment there’s a 35 point net shift from supporting Collins by 15 points at 53/38 to opposing Collins by 20 points, with just 35% still wanting to nominate Collins if she supports impeachment to 55% who prefer someone else. There’s also a 32 point shift in a hypothetical match with Levasseur from her 45 point initial advantage at 55-10 to just a 13 point advantage at 37-24. And presumably supporting impeaching Trump might bring a more serious primary challenger than Levasseur out of the woodwork.

Beautiful news

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't know anything about Public Policy Polling, so grain of salt, but they have a poll that shows Collins is having trouble in Maine.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/impeachment-could-end-collins-career/

PPP’s newest Maine poll finds that Susan Collins is in trouble for reelection…and that she’s likely to find herself in more trouble no matter what side of impeachment she comes down on.

Collins is unpopular, with only 35% of voters approving of the job she’s doing to 50% who disapprove. She trails a generic Democrat for reelection 44-41. That represents a big drop for Collins compared to a poll we did last September when she led a generic Democrat by 6 points at 44-38. At that time she only trailed 64-21 among Clinton voters but in the wake of her vote on Brett Kavanaugh and the general hardening of partisan lines she’s lost a lot of her crossover support and now trails 76-12 with Clinton voters.

PPP gets a B rating from 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Also worth remembering that Collins hasn’t officially declared her candidacy. She could still decide to retire.

[Anonymous]

“Iowa voters soured on Sen. Joni Ernst by 9 points, the biggest slide in net approval for any senator between the second and third quarters of 2019”
https://morningconsult.com/2019/10/17/things-arent-getting-better-for-2020s-most-vulnerable-senate-republicans/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:“Iowa voters soured on Sen. Joni Ernst by 9 points, the biggest slide in net approval for any senator between the second and third quarters of 2019”
https://morningconsult.com/2019/10/17/things-arent-getting-better-for-2020s-most-vulnerable-senate-republicans/

The town hall she had where a woman questioned her about Trump, and the video went viral, was pretty devastating for Ernst.

[Anonymous]

Red Flags All Over for Senate Republicans: New polls and fundraising reports show key GOP senators in political trouble, giving Democrats a solid shot to win back control of the upper chamber.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/682314?unlock=1EAZFXDRKO5HMK81

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Red Flags All Over for Senate Republicans: New polls and fundraising reports show key GOP senators in political trouble, giving Democrats a solid shot to win back control of the upper chamber.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/682314?unlock=1EAZFXDRKO5HMK81

“given the trajectory of Trump’s presidency and the trend lines in the battlegrounds, Republicans don’t have much room for error. Right now, control of the Senate past 2020 looks awfully close to a toss-up with over a year until the election”
Signs for GOP alarm:
-- Tillis with lowest job approval of any senator, facing $$ challenge from right
-- Ernst didn't hit $1M fundraising, approval declining
-- McSally outrased for 3rd straight Q, already down 5 to Kelly

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Red Flags All Over for Senate Republicans: New polls and fundraising reports show key GOP senators in political trouble, giving Democrats a solid shot to win back control of the upper chamber.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/682314?unlock=1EAZFXDRKO5HMK81

“given the trajectory of Trump’s presidency and the trend lines in the battlegrounds, Republicans don’t have much room for error. Right now, control of the Senate past 2020 looks awfully close to a toss-up with over a year until the election”
Signs for GOP alarm:
-- Tillis with lowest job approval of any senator, facing $$ challenge from right
-- Ernst didn't hit $1M fundraising, approval declining
-- McSally outrased for 3rd straight Q, already down 5 to Kelly

Just lovely, wonderful news.

[Anonymous]

Democrats now have a real chance at winning the Senate in 2020

“...control of the Senate should be regarded as in play," Nathan Gonzales, a non-partisan political handicapper and publisher of "Inside Elections," said in his tipsheet. "Republicans are still more likely than not to maintain control of the Senate, but Democrats have a legitimate path to control, particularly if they win the White House."

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/10/22/politics/senate-democrats-republicans-2020/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

[Anonymous]

Pompeo’s schedule tomorrow looks like that of a Senate candidate instead of a Secretary of State.

[Anonymous]

Kansan here. If Pompeo is in play for US Senate from Kansas, it’s only because failed KS gubernatorial candidate Krazy Kris Kobach is running for the same seat. However, Pompeo will hopefully be incriminated in Ukrainegate, leaving Kobach as the state’s US Senate front runner.

This would actually be great news, because there is a KS State Senator who can beat Kobach in the 2020 US Senate race. Her name is Dr. Barbara Bollier. She is a highly respected moderate from Johnson County, KS - which is located on the border with Missouri. Bollier was a Republican until last year, switching to Democrat after the Kansas Legislature swung back to a more extreme body...even while voters (thankfully) elected Democrat Laura Kelly as governor. Laura Kelly beat Kobach, Barbara Bollier can beat Kobach, my cat could beat Kobach.

Anyone who’s interested in flipping a US Senate seat and has money to donate, please look closely at Dr. Barbara Bollier. She absolutely could win Sen. Pat Roberts’ seat. She is my state senator and is truly a wonderful human being.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article236250078.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Kansan here. If Pompeo is in play for US Senate from Kansas, it’s only because failed KS gubernatorial candidate Krazy Kris Kobach is running for the same seat. However, Pompeo will hopefully be incriminated in Ukrainegate, leaving Kobach as the state’s US Senate front runner.

This would actually be great news, because there is a KS State Senator who can beat Kobach in the 2020 US Senate race. Her name is Dr. Barbara Bollier. She is a highly respected moderate from Johnson County, KS - which is located on the border with Missouri. Bollier was a Republican until last year, switching to Democrat after the Kansas Legislature swung back to a more extreme body...even while voters (thankfully) elected Democrat Laura Kelly as governor. Laura Kelly beat Kobach, Barbara Bollier can beat Kobach, my cat could beat Kobach.

Anyone who’s interested in flipping a US Senate seat and has money to donate, please look closely at Dr. Barbara Bollier. She absolutely could win Sen. Pat Roberts’ seat. She is my state senator and is truly a wonderful human being.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article236250078.html

Hi Kansan PP! I remember you from the Blue Wave thread. Thanks for posting this and I will take a look. Suburban women flipping their votes from from R to D will be the big story in 2020 as they were in 2018, so it would be super fitting if one of them got to become a Senator.