When are NMSF announced?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year, TJ had 35.3% of the VA NMSF. This year, they only have 20.6% of the VA NMSF.

It's a huge drop, no matter how people try to spin things. It should have been obvious to everyone that when you admit kids based on geographic diversity, essays, and experience factors rather than test scores, test scores will drop.

What are the FCPS percentages of VA semifinalists?

FCPS (including TJ) had 56.5% of the VA semifinalists last year. It has 48.6% of the semifinalists this year.

The NMSF ratio of FCPS/VA hasn’t changed significantly, but the NMSF ratios of TJ/FCPS (67% and 63% in 2022 and 2023 vs. 42% in 2024) and TJ/VA (35.3% in 2023 vs. 20.6% in 2024) have decreased significantly. COVID and the learning loss caused by the pandemic are not valid excuses as they affected all FCPS schools. In fact, the COVID positive rate at TJ was much lower than the rates in base schools.

Cite on the VA numbers?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could it be people who were locked out of school in 8th grade are doing worse now?

Which schools saw improvements in numbers?

Is there something specific to 8th grade that would affect these results that wouldn't also affect kids that were in 9th 10th and 11th grades?

Theory is that schools that were open in 2020-2021 had better results than the online-only schools.

Then why don't we see these PSAT gaps elsewhere this year?

What were the gaps for the other FCPS HSs? LCPS?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could it be people who were locked out of school in 8th grade are doing worse now?

Which schools saw improvements in numbers?

Is there something specific to 8th grade that would affect these results that wouldn't also affect kids that were in 9th 10th and 11th grades?

Theory is that schools that were open in 2020-2021 had better results than the online-only schools.

Then why don't we see these PSAT gaps elsewhere this year?

What were the gaps for the other FCPS HSs? LCPS?

LCPS (excluding TJ students)

Year Recipients
=== ======
2022 45
2023 44 + 1 home schooled
2024 57
2025 47

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could it be people who were locked out of school in 8th grade are doing worse now?

Which schools saw improvements in numbers?

Is there something specific to 8th grade that would affect these results that wouldn't also affect kids that were in 9th 10th and 11th grades?

Theory is that schools that were open in 2020-2021 had better results than the online-only schools.

Then why don't we see these PSAT gaps elsewhere this year?

What were the gaps for the other FCPS HSs? LCPS?

LCPS (excluding TJ students)

Year Recipients
=== ======
2022 45
2023 44 + 1 home schooled
2024 57
2025 47

By HS…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could it be people who were locked out of school in 8th grade are doing worse now?

Which schools saw improvements in numbers?

Is there something specific to 8th grade that would affect these results that wouldn't also affect kids that were in 9th 10th and 11th grades?

Theory is that schools that were open in 2020-2021 had better results than the online-only schools.

Then why don't we see these PSAT gaps elsewhere this year?

What were the gaps for the other FCPS HSs? LCPS?

LCPS (excluding TJ students)

Year Recipients
=== ======
2022 45
2023 44 + 1 home schooled
2024 57
2025 47

By HS…

that wont be free. got bitcoin?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could it be people who were locked out of school in 8th grade are doing worse now?

Which schools saw improvements in numbers?

Is there something specific to 8th grade that would affect these results that wouldn't also affect kids that were in 9th 10th and 11th grades?

Theory is that schools that were open in 2020-2021 had better results than the online-only schools.

Then why don't we see these PSAT gaps elsewhere this year?

What were the gaps for the other FCPS HSs? LCPS?

LCPS (excluding TJ students)

Year Recipients
=== ======
2022 45
2023 44 + 1 home schooled
2024 57
2025 47

Covid impact is there but not much, almost none!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year, TJ had 35.3% of the VA NMSF. This year, they only have 20.6% of the VA NMSF.

It's a huge drop, no matter how people try to spin things. It should have been obvious to everyone that when you admit kids based on geographic diversity, essays, and experience factors rather than test scores, test scores will drop.

What are the FCPS percentages of VA semifinalists?

FCPS (including TJ) had 56.5% of the VA semifinalists last year. It has 48.6% of the semifinalists this year.

It's not uncommon for a place with such a high percentage to have YoY variation. I'm sure it will be different next year.

Sure, there's year over year variation. But nowhere near what we see, because for statistical purposes, these are large enough numbers that you're not going to see them going all over the place.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could it be people who were locked out of school in 8th grade are doing worse now?

Which schools saw improvements in numbers?

Is there something specific to 8th grade that would affect these results that wouldn't also affect kids that were in 9th 10th and 11th grades?

Theory is that schools that were open in 2020-2021 had better results than the online-only schools.

Then why don't we see these PSAT gaps elsewhere this year?

What were the gaps for the other FCPS HSs? LCPS?

LCPS (excluding TJ students)

Year Recipients
=== ======
2022 45
2023 44 + 1 home schooled
2024 57
2025 47

By HS…

that wont be free. got bitcoin?

You can’t claim there weren’t gaps elsewhere without backing it up with data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year, TJ had 35.3% of the VA NMSF. This year, they only have 20.6% of the VA NMSF.

It's a huge drop, no matter how people try to spin things. It should have been obvious to everyone that when you admit kids based on geographic diversity, essays, and experience factors rather than test scores, test scores will drop.

What are the FCPS percentages of VA semifinalists?

FCPS (including TJ) had 56.5% of the VA semifinalists last year. It has 48.6% of the semifinalists this year.

The NMSF ratio of FCPS/VA hasn’t changed significantly, but the NMSF ratios of TJ/FCPS (67% and 63% in 2022 and 2023 vs. 42% in 2024) and TJ/VA (35.3% in 2023 vs. 20.6% in 2024) have decreased significantly. COVID and the learning loss caused by the pandemic are not valid excuses as they affected all FCPS schools. In fact, the COVID positive rate at TJ was much lower than the rates in base schools.

Cite on the VA numbers?

They're just trying to cover up that COVID and learning loss are the reason for this to help push the false narrative about admissions. Some people liked being able to buy their kid's way into TJ and will say anything to get back to a system that favors wealthy feeder schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year, TJ had 35.3% of the VA NMSF. This year, they only have 20.6% of the VA NMSF.

It's a huge drop, no matter how people try to spin things. It should have been obvious to everyone that when you admit kids based on geographic diversity, essays, and experience factors rather than test scores, test scores will drop.

What are the FCPS percentages of VA semifinalists?

FCPS (including TJ) had 56.5% of the VA semifinalists last year. It has 48.6% of the semifinalists this year.

It's not uncommon for a place with such a high percentage to have YoY variation. I'm sure it will be different next year.

Sure, there's year over year variation. But nowhere near what we see, because for statistical purposes, these are large enough numbers that you're not going to see them going all over the place.

The point is you can and it happens all the time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year, TJ had 35.3% of the VA NMSF. This year, they only have 20.6% of the VA NMSF.

It's a huge drop, no matter how people try to spin things. It should have been obvious to everyone that when you admit kids based on geographic diversity, essays, and experience factors rather than test scores, test scores will drop.

What are the FCPS percentages of VA semifinalists?

FCPS (including TJ) had 56.5% of the VA semifinalists last year. It has 48.6% of the semifinalists this year.

The NMSF ratio of FCPS/VA hasn’t changed significantly, but the NMSF ratios of TJ/FCPS (67% and 63% in 2022 and 2023 vs. 42% in 2024) and TJ/VA (35.3% in 2023 vs. 20.6% in 2024) have decreased significantly. COVID and the learning loss caused by the pandemic are not valid excuses as they affected all FCPS schools. In fact, the COVID positive rate at TJ was much lower than the rates in base schools.

Cite on the VA numbers?

They're just trying to cover up that COVID and learning loss are the reason for this to help push the false narrative about admissions. Some people liked being able to buy their kid's way into TJ and will say anything to get back to a system that favors wealthy feeder schools.

You're being ridiculous. The new admissions process was designed to no longer select kids based on standardized test taking ability and instead provide access to a much broader group of students. It was obvious to everyone that test scores would drop when they stopped selecting kids based on test scores. It's perfectly fair to argue that it's more important to provide access to TJ to all kids across the county than it is to maximize TJ's prestige. There's no need to be intellectually dishonest about what is happening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In 2022 and 2023, 67% and 63% of the NMSF in FCPS were from TJ. In 2024, only 42% of the NMSF in FCPS are from TJ, despite an increase in the number of TJ juniors from 440 to 500. I expect that next year, TJ’s performance will be even worse than this year, compared to other FCPS schools, because the only academic essay in TJ’s admission test for the class of 2026 was related to biology and was much easier than the math essay for the class of 2025.

The admissions in the first year seemed to line up more with merit than in later years. I heard the first year students were expected to write about their achievements in the essays, sneaking in what was removed from the application.
However, after that year students might get downgraded for listing these achievements that have nothing to do with the essay topic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In 2022 and 2023, 67% and 63% of the NMSF in FCPS were from TJ. In 2024, only 42% of the NMSF in FCPS are from TJ, despite an increase in the number of TJ juniors from 440 to 500. I expect that next year, TJ’s performance will be even worse than this year, compared to other FCPS schools, because the only academic essay in TJ’s admission test for the class of 2026 was related to biology and was much easier than the math essay for the class of 2025.

The admissions in the first year seemed to line up more with merit than in later years. I heard the first year students were expected to write about their achievements in the essays, sneaking in what was removed from the application.
However, after that year students might get downgraded for listing these achievements that have nothing to do with the essay topic.

You heard? A little birdie told you this?

SMH

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

How many TJ slots do you think are allocated to Loudon county?

200

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could it be people who were locked out of school in 8th grade are doing worse now?

Which schools saw improvements in numbers?

Is there something specific to 8th grade that would affect these results that wouldn't also affect kids that were in 9th 10th and 11th grades?

Theory is that schools that were open in 2020-2021 had better results than the online-only schools.

But TJ wasn't open in 2020-2021 any more than other FCPS schools was it?

Other districts.

Fairfax schools did not pick up much of the drop at TJ in NMSF.
Loudoun dropped a little bit as well, so it did not pick up the drop at TJ.
Those semifinalists that TJ lost have to be somewhere other than Fairfax and Loudoun.
Unless there are less students overall so fewer total semifinalists.