I think the bubble is popping.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Other dynamic is unlike past retirees boomers often own two homes. My neighbors have a few “snow birds” they keep their house in retirement.

Look I have a nice five bedroom, four bath, 2 car garage on a flat 1/2 acre in Close in MoCo.

When I retire and go to Florida or Delaware my wife will not sell. She wants to wait a few years. Maybe even rent it. I may hate Florida. I can’t afford to buy back my house in retirement.

Yep.

This happened to a friend of mine. She rented a house from a snowbird and they moved back during the pandemic because FL was a nightmare.

So she had to change her rent- she went from renting at 2800/month to 4500/month.

So the demand is still there because she can’t sleep because she is throwing away 55k a year in rent alone now.

I think you're saying that they kicked her out of the house so they could live there again? Wasn't she on a lease? How is that remotely possible? If her rent went up $1,700 then it sounds like she found a below market rental which was lucky for a short time but maybe it's time to buy a house or rent further out where she can afford.

There is a huge “secret” off season market. It got disrupted in Pandemic. My beach town has a whole second winter tenant crowd who paid well below market and rented off season. My condo alone one tenant rented 25 years off season. Whole house furnished. He was a professor at a nearby college came up for school year and for summer went to his cabin in upstate NY. Also I dated a few girls who lived at home in summer and rented off season.

I recognize that beach houses have a lower rent in the off-season. Are you the one who's friend is paying $1,700 more? If so, you forgot to mention they were renting a beach house for the winter from the snowbirds. If they were renting a beach house in the winter, why were they surprised that the rent would go up in the summer? Very confusing post.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Other dynamic is unlike past retirees boomers often own two homes. My neighbors have a few “snow birds” they keep their house in retirement.

Look I have a nice five bedroom, four bath, 2 car garage on a flat 1/2 acre in Close in MoCo.

When I retire and go to Florida or Delaware my wife will not sell. She wants to wait a few years. Maybe even rent it. I may hate Florida. I can’t afford to buy back my house in retirement.

Yep.

This happened to a friend of mine. She rented a house from a snowbird and they moved back during the pandemic because FL was a nightmare.

So she had to change her rent- she went from renting at 2800/month to 4500/month.

So the demand is still there because she can’t sleep because she is throwing away 55k a year in rent alone now.

I think you're saying that they kicked her out of the house so they could live there again? Wasn't she on a lease? How is that remotely possible? If her rent went up $1,700 then it sounds like she found a below market rental which was lucky for a short time but maybe it's time to buy a house or rent further out where she can afford.

Her lease was up and the owner said get out.

You’re not guaranteed housing once your contract expires.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Other dynamic is unlike past retirees boomers often own two homes. My neighbors have a few “snow birds” they keep their house in retirement.

Look I have a nice five bedroom, four bath, 2 car garage on a flat 1/2 acre in Close in MoCo.

When I retire and go to Florida or Delaware my wife will not sell. She wants to wait a few years. Maybe even rent it. I may hate Florida. I can’t afford to buy back my house in retirement.

Yep.

This happened to a friend of mine. She rented a house from a snowbird and they moved back during the pandemic because FL was a nightmare.

So she had to change her rent- she went from renting at 2800/month to 4500/month.

So the demand is still there because she can’t sleep because she is throwing away 55k a year in rent alone now.

I think you're saying that they kicked her out of the house so they could live there again? Wasn't she on a lease? How is that remotely possible? If her rent went up $1,700 then it sounds like she found a below market rental which was lucky for a short time but maybe it's time to buy a house or rent further out where she can afford.

There is a huge “secret” off season market. It got disrupted in Pandemic. My beach town has a whole second winter tenant crowd who paid well below market and rented off season. My condo alone one tenant rented 25 years off season. Whole house furnished. He was a professor at a nearby college came up for school year and for summer went to his cabin in upstate NY. Also I dated a few girls who lived at home in summer and rented off season.

I recognize that beach houses have a lower rent in the off-season. Are you the one who's friend is paying $1,700 more? If so, you forgot to mention they were renting a beach house for the winter from the snowbirds. If they were renting a beach house in the winter, why were they surprised that the rent would go up in the summer? Very confusing post.

I’m the person with the rental friend but I didn’t post the secret off season thing.

Florida because really hard for a lot of people who believed that masks work and wanted better health care. Believe it or not- it who horrifying for people who didn’t want to die see a bunch of people fly down to Florida and live there without masks and refuse vaccines.

So, June of last year, the owners of the rental up here said: yeah, we’re coming back and my friend lost her house.

Hope that clarifies stuff.

Also- FYI- I think the owners are back in florida now. They just wanted her out- they are now renting out her old house for 4500.

[Anonymous]

My neighbor retire 30 years ago to Florida. Still rents home next door. He got a three lease at $6,000 a month in summer 2020. He paid $175k for house in 1975

I talked about off peak tenants as I own a beach place and every year we rent off season to tons of folks whose rich owners just wavy someone they can trust in unit and to watch unit and in exchange give way below market rents.

My condo my nine month a year tenant I had six years running the place is now a yearly rental. Demand is up for year round leases at beach and with Covid I was out of work a few months and not traveling.

My brother used his Florida place nearly all year. I plan on renting my primary in early retirement. It is too much cost to sell and buy back if I hate Florida.

Renters are getting squeezed. I grew up on a rent stabalized apt so my parents had none of these worries. Today renting is more volatile. For instance my year round tenant what if I want it back?

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"Moron" realtor here.

The high end of the market is always a leading indicator. People who buy $5M houses don't buy it thinking...what's my HHI...can I afford it etc. They buy it from an asset perspective, whether it's appreciation or capital preservation in mind. If THEY are not buying, it means...they think cash is better, or there are other investments that are better. i.e. Housing is NOT a good way preserve capital.

That throws the entire inflation argument out of the water. i.e. bubblicious markets are staring down the reality hole.

What are you seeing in that higher end of the market?

What I'm seeing is a significant[i] slowdown, with properties sitting much much longer and significant price drops. We're talking 20-30% off list, if not more. This is generally the $2M+ market. (And if Jeff doesn't stop deleting my screenshots...I could show more data, but it looks like he doesn't like it. Oh well.)

I'm still seeing idiot sellers in the $1-$2M range, who:

- are too late to the market now, the bell curve has shifted.
- Should have listed last year if they wanted to make money from their house
- are thinking people will pay in July 2021, what they were paying in July 2020, which is not happening, is not going to happen.

I'm still seeing desperate sellers in the $750K-$1M market who: read above.

The under $750K market in the DC metro area is very sporadic. Some parts sell well (think Silver Spring, Burke etc) but they are very localized. Other parts (think tear downs in Arlington) just sit there until they drop the price to where it is economically feasible for a developer.

I'm seeing "well priced" properties still move quickly, but there is no frenzy anymore.

What people don't realize is that a lot of the frenzy was NOT due to inflation, lumber prices rising (they are off 40% from their highs) and what not. That was a "transitory" (in JPOW's words) situation, which did turn out to be true. The frenzy was due to migration patterns, where a lot of people who can now WFH (and other reasons) changed their geographies and brought their incomes with them. This is why NY, NJ, IL, CT, MA, MD, DC are all stagnating, and prices rose in other parts of the country (FL, TX, NC, SC, VA and several other low COL states). But...that surge is over. Whoever needed to move, has moved. Now, we just have delusional/desperate sellers trying to make money.

Housing (residential real estate) CANNOT go up too much and will ALWAYS correct to the median, unless incomes rise proportionately. And that's not happening and may never happen.

I've been following the market very closely and this is pretty accurate of what I've seen. I think the people are failing to realize that the turn key ready homes and good location new builds have always and will always command a premium over others. They focus on those houses going over list so much that they overlook the inventory that's sitting on the market for weeks now. Only time will tell where real estate will go but I do not think it's up from here.

Agree. We bought in 2011, when the market was recovering, but nothing like the craziness of the past year, and even then the renovated houses with lots of curb appeal were selling very quickly. We bought our house before it was listed, and there was another offer. The houses with flaws were sitting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Snowbirds having two homes is not a new phenomenon. My grandparents did when they retired back in the 80s.

That’s why they’re called “snowbirds.” They move back and forth. The phenomenon has been around a while.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My neighbor retire 30 years ago to Florida. Still rents home next door. He got a three lease at $6,000 a month in summer 2020. He paid $175k for house in 1975

I talked about off peak tenants as I own a beach place and every year we rent off season to tons of folks whose rich owners just wavy someone they can trust in unit and to watch unit and in exchange give way below market rents.

My condo my nine month a year tenant I had six years running the place is now a yearly rental. Demand is up for year round leases at beach and with Covid I was out of work a few months and not traveling.

My brother used his Florida place nearly all year. I plan on renting my primary in early retirement. It is too much cost to sell and buy back if I hate Florida.

Renters are getting squeezed. I grew up on a rent stabalized apt so my parents had none of these worries. Today renting is more volatile. For instance my year round tenant what if I want it back?

That’s what I am seeing too.

And that’s also why properties are still in demand in this area. Renting at 60k a year would keep many of us up at night.

[Anonymous]

They've been talking about the housing bubble popping for the last 16 years..,

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote: They've been talking about the housing bubble popping for the last 16 years..,

Yes, I dont think thats gonna happen. Prices will flatten for next couple of years - No appreciation. Thats all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote: They've been talking about the housing bubble popping for the last 16 years..,

Well, the housing bubble DID pop 13 years ago, it was just re-inflated by the Fed and TARP. And the market now knows the Fed always will have housings back so it’s RISK ON BABY, or whatever aggressive traders say.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Well, the housing bubble DID pop 13 years ago, it was just re-inflated by the Fed and TARP. And the market now knows the Fed always will have housings back so it’s RISK ON BABY, or whatever aggressive traders say.

Yep. I'm 39 y/o and I agree with you. We will never see the type of housing value depreciation like we did in 2008 or 2005 in DC. Property owners always get bailed out, renters and savers get screwed. Capitalism, F yeah

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Well, the housing bubble DID pop 13 years ago, it was just re-inflated by the Fed and TARP. And the market now knows the Fed always will have housings back so it’s RISK ON BABY, or whatever aggressive traders say.

Yep. I'm 39 y/o and I agree with you. We will never see the type of housing value depreciation like we did in 2008 or 2005 in DC. Property owners always get bailed out, renters and savers get screwed. Capitalism, F yeah

What depreciation are you referring to in 2005 or 2008 in DC? 2005 the market was strong. 2008, nothing went down in DC but the MD (not VA) outer suburbs (particularly PG County) got crushed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Well, the housing bubble DID pop 13 years ago, it was just re-inflated by the Fed and TARP. And the market now knows the Fed always will have housings back so it’s RISK ON BABY, or whatever aggressive traders say.

Yep. I'm 39 y/o and I agree with you. We will never see the type of housing value depreciation like we did in 2008 or 2005 in DC. Property owners always get bailed out, renters and savers get screwed. Capitalism, F yeah

What depreciation are you referring to in 2005 or 2008 in DC? 2005 the market was strong. 2008, nothing went down in DC but the MD (not VA) outer suburbs (particularly PG County) got crushed.

My townhome community out in Fairfax lost around 20/25%. Values only recently reached (and surpassed) the previous peak prices.
-dp

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
What depreciation are you referring to in 2005 or 2008 in DC? 2005 the market was strong. 2008, nothing went down in DC but the MD (not VA) outer suburbs (particularly PG County) got crushed.

Sorry. I thought the conventional wisdom was that DC had a residential real estate bubble pop in 2005.