I think the bubble is popping.
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
DC was partially insulated from crash because of post 9-11 boom and wars, as well as the introduction of charter schools which revitalized the city as a place families might live. It definitely softened, but DC boom had more legitimate foundation. If WFH culture drives for agencies to move elsewhere (Trump was already trying that look at USDA ESA), that would put downward pressure. But we won’t see that during a Biden or Harris term |
Anonymous
My townhome one Montgomery county dropped by 50-100k. It has recovered, but it took a long time. |
Anonymous
DC was a boom town post-2008 financial crisis. The population growth figures prove it. If there was a “softening” it maybe lasted 6-12 months and could have been neighborhood dependent. What really happened is that supply disappeared. For the first time the number of listings dropped and the market became really tight. I bought in 2010 so I am very familiar with that market and there were lots of bidding wars, just as there are now. |
Anonymous
| On WTOP today, they reported that the NRA now says that there are more realtors than there are house listings nationwide. Inventory nationwide is down a lot right now, so I don't agree with the OPs contention. There may be pockets or areas that have extra inventory and where prices are dropping, but they are isolated pockets and not indicative of a general trend. |
Anonymous
| Some desperate buyers who could not outbid are having hope. Please dont even think about it. Prices are not coming down. Stop looking if you cannot afford. |
Anonymous
| Dc has a very good growth and the EOTR area is developing really well. |
Anonymous
+1 Stop wasting realtors time. Even the ones at redfin. If you were hoping to find a 700k SFH but they are now selling at 900k-1.1 mill- either change your kids school, buy a townhome instead, or continue renting at 3-4K a year and stop thinking a bubble is going to happen in the DMV. Amazon hasn’t even hired all of its people yet. Neither has Microsoft or Facebook for this area. Micron is still working on its factory in Manassas. AWS is still actively hiring. The market isn’t bursting any time soon- some fixer uppers might come on the market in the next few months, but you won’t find any gems. People are holding off until next spring. Or renting out their homes. But my realtor friends are tired of you wasting their time with the whole “oh, we’re just looking” bs. Inventory is not going to just suddenly explode here. Real estate is not like going to Costco or something. There is only so much land. And only so many people who are willing to part with it. Just looking around is just wasting everyone’s time. And if you are watching HGTV- the reality is that this area is not Waco TX. This area is turning into SF or Seattle. The faster you realize that, the faster you can join the rest of us in the real world. |
Anonymous
I wasn't even going to respond to this but let me ask a couple qs. Why would microsoft, fb, aws come to nova to work when they have so many better options for location? Most of these tech jobs will be filled by locals or early career folks who could care less about buying a family home in DC. You need a TS clearance to even apply for all of the tech jobs in microsoft so a majority of the people flooding in can't even apply there. Facebook is in DC and offered a fully remote option for all levels so even if someone would want to come to DC, you think they will want to buy a house and settle down here? Sounds like you're a realtor who's salty about reality. |
Anonymous
I cannot imagine anyone caring about wasting realtors' time. They are the most useless part of the entire housing industry, and they are lucky to get any commissions they get. |
Anonymous
Also, when rates eventually do go up, prices will come down. |
Anonymous
DP here. First, Amazon and Microsoft already have commitments to the area. They are trying to get a better let into government contracting among other things and it's easier to lobby and support from closer by. So they have set up regional HQ in the area and are staffing up. It will be slow and steady over several years, but that's happening. In addition, independent of AHQ2 and MS, the population of the DC metro area continues to grow. The population has more than doubled over the last 40 years and grows 1+% annually. With a population currently over 6.2M that means that more than 60K additional residents are added annually. 60K more people coming in than leave the area annually. These people have to live somewhere. And many of the newcomers come in with high salaries. As these folks come in, the also push and compete for the higher end housing making those area more in demand. As people then get priced out of the first tier of housing, some of the them will get pushed to the second tier of housing making that more in demand and keeping prices up and so on. The housing market is not likely to correct anytime in the near future due to the fact that more people are moving into the area. And new housing is not keeping pace. The only place that new housing is close to keeping pace with the population increase is the farther out exurbs. |
Anonymous
Exactly this. They haven’t even really started hiring. This real estate craziness is just most pandemic based craziness and contractors. The Jedi contract hasn’t even been finalized yet. But it will be insane here. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/07/06/pentagon-cancels-10-billion-jedi-contract-challenged-by-amazon-ending-long-contested-cloud-procurement-deal/ The bubble isn’t happening for well priced dream homes. Shacks be damned. But everything else- you will be lucky to find a started home under a million in five years. |
Anonymous
Only Amazon is hiring for non-gov projects so like I said, aws and microsoft hiring here isn't going to magically contribute greatly to the 1% of your estimate because a majority of these hires will come from the existing DMV residents with clearances. The population growth is true but I don't get how you can assume that the newcomers will have high salaries. I'd say it's a safe estimate that a majority of the people moving to the DMV are usually coming from lower COL areas not places like NY, SF or Seattle. If prices do keep increasing as they are, it'll be hard to attract people to move here especially since they can get a remote job and buy a 3k sq ft house for 300k. I think Microsoft hiring in the DMV has minimal impact to the DMV housing market because it's so hard to find people engineers who want to work for a government contract. These tech companies are also hiring elsewhere in lower COL areas and remote. It's easy to read headlines of articles and assume the housing market will only go up and up. What those articles fail to mention is that finding tech talent is one of the major challenges that the companies face. If you can get into these companies, you will have your choice of location and for 20-35 year olds (which a majority of these jobs will go to), I don't see how Virginia or Maryland will be there first choice. Even if they do come here, they will certainly not be buying these high end homes that you mention and likely just rent an apartment until they move away to a better company. Have you even heard of the employee attrition rates for aws? |
Anonymous
No it did not. Where were you living then and how did you come to this bizarre conclusion? There were not two housing "crashes" in a row. And real estate inside city did not suffer very much, if was specific areas within the region. |
Anonymous
| Everyone in tech (real tech) that I know wants to work in NYC, not DC. |