I think the bubble is popping.

[Anonymous]

Other dynamic is unlike past retirees boomers often own two homes. My neighbors have a few “snow birds” they keep their house in retirement.

Look I have a nice five bedroom, four bath, 2 car garage on a flat 1/2 acre in Close in MoCo.

When I retire and go to Florida or Delaware my wife will not sell. She wants to wait a few years. Maybe even rent it. I may hate Florida. I can’t afford to buy back my house in retirement.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Other dynamic is unlike past retirees boomers often own two homes. My neighbors have a few “snow birds” they keep their house in retirement.

Look I have a nice five bedroom, four bath, 2 car garage on a flat 1/2 acre in Close in MoCo.

When I retire and go to Florida or Delaware my wife will not sell. She wants to wait a few years. Maybe even rent it. I may hate Florida. I can’t afford to buy back my house in retirement.

Yep.

This happened to a friend of mine. She rented a house from a snowbird and they moved back during the pandemic because FL was a nightmare.

So she had to change her rent- she went from renting at 2800/month to 4500/month.

So the demand is still there because she can’t sleep because she is throwing away 55k a year in rent alone now.

[Anonymous]

Snowbirds having two homes is not a new phenomenon. My grandparents did when they retired back in the 80s.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are looking in Olney and many houses are now contingent rather than contract. This is good news for me and the prices are dropping too.

Well, many are on the market without being even contingent for much longer than in March or April.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"Moron" realtor here.

The high end of the market is always a leading indicator. People who buy $5M houses don't buy it thinking...what's my HHI...can I afford it etc. They buy it from an asset perspective, whether it's appreciation or capital preservation in mind. If THEY are not buying, it means...they think cash is better, or there are other investments that are better. i.e. Housing is NOT a good way preserve capital.

That throws the entire inflation argument out of the water. i.e. bubblicious markets are staring down the reality hole.

What are you seeing in that higher end of the market?

What I'm seeing is a significant[i] slowdown, with properties sitting much much longer and significant price drops. We're talking 20-30% off list, if not more. This is generally the $2M+ market. (And if Jeff doesn't stop deleting my screenshots...I could show more data, but it looks like he doesn't like it. Oh well.)

I'm still seeing idiot sellers in the $1-$2M range, who:

- are too late to the market now, the bell curve has shifted.
- Should have listed last year if they wanted to make money from their house
- are thinking people will pay in July 2021, what they were paying in July 2020, which is not happening, is not going to happen.

I'm still seeing desperate sellers in the $750K-$1M market who: read above.

The under $750K market in the DC metro area is very sporadic. Some parts sell well (think Silver Spring, Burke etc) but they are very localized. Other parts (think tear downs in Arlington) just sit there until they drop the price to where it is economically feasible for a developer.

I'm seeing "well priced" properties still move quickly, but there is no frenzy anymore.

What people don't realize is that a lot of the frenzy was NOT due to inflation, lumber prices rising (they are off 40% from their highs) and what not. That was a "transitory" (in JPOW's words) situation, which did turn out to be true. The frenzy was due to migration patterns, where a lot of people who can now WFH (and other reasons) changed their geographies and brought their incomes with them. This is why NY, NJ, IL, CT, MA, MD, DC are all stagnating, and prices rose in other parts of the country (FL, TX, NC, SC, VA and several other low COL states). But...that surge is over. Whoever needed to move, has moved. Now, we just have delusional/desperate sellers trying to make money.

Housing (residential real estate) CANNOT go up too much and will ALWAYS correct to the median, unless incomes rise proportionately. And that's not happening and may never happen.

Umm ok, I'll just wait if you don't want to buy Ill try again next year moron

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Other dynamic is unlike past retirees boomers often own two homes. My neighbors have a few “snow birds” they keep their house in retirement.

Look I have a nice five bedroom, four bath, 2 car garage on a flat 1/2 acre in Close in MoCo.

When I retire and go to Florida or Delaware my wife will not sell. She wants to wait a few years. Maybe even rent it. I may hate Florida. I can’t afford to buy back my house in retirement.

Yep.

This happened to a friend of mine. She rented a house from a snowbird and they moved back during the pandemic because FL was a nightmare.

So she had to change her rent- she went from renting at 2800/month to 4500/month.

So the demand is still there because she can’t sleep because she is throwing away 55k a year in rent alone now.

How was Florida ever a nightmare? People were fleeing NYC for Florida.....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"Moron" realtor here.

The high end of the market is always a leading indicator. People who buy $5M houses don't buy it thinking...what's my HHI...can I afford it etc. They buy it from an asset perspective, whether it's appreciation or capital preservation in mind. If THEY are not buying, it means...they think cash is better, or there are other investments that are better. i.e. Housing is NOT a good way preserve capital.

That throws the entire inflation argument out of the water. i.e. bubblicious markets are staring down the reality hole.

What are you seeing in that higher end of the market?

What I'm seeing is a significant[i] slowdown, with properties sitting much much longer and significant price drops. We're talking 20-30% off list, if not more. This is generally the $2M+ market. (And if Jeff doesn't stop deleting my screenshots...I could show more data, but it looks like he doesn't like it. Oh well.)

I'm still seeing idiot sellers in the $1-$2M range, who:

- are too late to the market now, the bell curve has shifted.
- Should have listed last year if they wanted to make money from their house
- are thinking people will pay in July 2021, what they were paying in July 2020, which is not happening, is not going to happen.

I'm still seeing desperate sellers in the $750K-$1M market who: read above.

The under $750K market in the DC metro area is very sporadic. Some parts sell well (think Silver Spring, Burke etc) but they are very localized. Other parts (think tear downs in Arlington) just sit there until they drop the price to where it is economically feasible for a developer.

I'm seeing "well priced" properties still move quickly, but there is no frenzy anymore.

What people don't realize is that a lot of the frenzy was NOT due to inflation, lumber prices rising (they are off 40% from their highs) and what not. That was a "transitory" (in JPOW's words) situation, which did turn out to be true. The frenzy was due to migration patterns, where a lot of people who can now WFH (and other reasons) changed their geographies and brought their incomes with them. This is why NY, NJ, IL, CT, MA, MD, DC are all stagnating, and prices rose in other parts of the country (FL, TX, NC, SC, VA and several other low COL states). But...that surge is over. Whoever needed to move, has moved. Now, we just have delusional/desperate sellers trying to make money.

Housing (residential real estate) CANNOT go up too much and will ALWAYS correct to the median, unless incomes rise proportionately. And that's not happening and may never happen.

Umm ok, I'll just wait if you don't want to buy Ill try again next year moron

I wonder how many people believe that non-agricultural land has an actual intrinsic value beyond the willingness of others to pay.

[Anonymous]

This house sold for $400k over asking. I don't think we are quite there yet haha.

https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/4600-Ashby-St-NW-20007/home/9940522

[Anonymous]

If you drive back by and there’s a Porsche in the driveway from another prospective buyer you probably won’t win the house.

[Anonymous]

In my area, folks are still getting 5 offers if price range is 400K +/-. Lets see how it goes in a couple of months.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This house sold for $400k over asking. I don't think we are quite there yet haha.

https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/4600-Ashby-St-NW-20007/home/9940522

It’s the location.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This house sold for $400k over asking. I don't think we are quite there yet haha.

https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/4600-Ashby-St-NW-20007/home/9940522

I hate houses where you walk in straight into the stairs. At this price you should really get a proper entrance ...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This house sold for $400k over asking. I don't think we are quite there yet haha.

https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/4600-Ashby-St-NW-20007/home/9940522

It’s the location.

I hear ya. I live nearby. Just saying 20% over list in less than a week is not indicative of a bubble popping, particularly at that price point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Other dynamic is unlike past retirees boomers often own two homes. My neighbors have a few “snow birds” they keep their house in retirement.

Look I have a nice five bedroom, four bath, 2 car garage on a flat 1/2 acre in Close in MoCo.

When I retire and go to Florida or Delaware my wife will not sell. She wants to wait a few years. Maybe even rent it. I may hate Florida. I can’t afford to buy back my house in retirement.

Yep.

This happened to a friend of mine. She rented a house from a snowbird and they moved back during the pandemic because FL was a nightmare.

So she had to change her rent- she went from renting at 2800/month to 4500/month.

So the demand is still there because she can’t sleep because she is throwing away 55k a year in rent alone now.

I think you're saying that they kicked her out of the house so they could live there again? Wasn't she on a lease? How is that remotely possible? If her rent went up $1,700 then it sounds like she found a below market rental which was lucky for a short time but maybe it's time to buy a house or rent further out where she can afford.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Other dynamic is unlike past retirees boomers often own two homes. My neighbors have a few “snow birds” they keep their house in retirement.

Look I have a nice five bedroom, four bath, 2 car garage on a flat 1/2 acre in Close in MoCo.

When I retire and go to Florida or Delaware my wife will not sell. She wants to wait a few years. Maybe even rent it. I may hate Florida. I can’t afford to buy back my house in retirement.

Yep.

This happened to a friend of mine. She rented a house from a snowbird and they moved back during the pandemic because FL was a nightmare.

So she had to change her rent- she went from renting at 2800/month to 4500/month.

So the demand is still there because she can’t sleep because she is throwing away 55k a year in rent alone now.

I think you're saying that they kicked her out of the house so they could live there again? Wasn't she on a lease? How is that remotely possible? If her rent went up $1,700 then it sounds like she found a below market rental which was lucky for a short time but maybe it's time to buy a house or rent further out where she can afford.

There is a huge “secret” off season market. It got disrupted in Pandemic. My beach town has a whole second winter tenant crowd who paid well below market and rented off season. My condo alone one tenant rented 25 years off season. Whole house furnished. He was a professor at a nearby college came up for school year and for summer went to his cabin in upstate NY. Also I dated a few girls who lived at home in summer and rented off season.