Concerned about buying in WJ cluster because of re-zoning

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Some of the posts in this thread are out of line, but 100K house price reduction can be hard for families stretching it to get to WJ right now. Everyone doesn't make 400K of 800K HHI cited above in this thread. 100K reduction may not matter than much if you hake 400-800K. Some perspective is needed from both sides.

You'er delusional if you think houses in the WJ area are going to decrease by $100,000. If schools were so central to housing prices homes in Takoma Park wouldn't be selling for $1M. That's because it's about location first and foremost, and traffic is going to be much worse 3-4 years from now when Woodward opens, which is going to make location even more important.

Homes in the Town of Kensington within walking distance to the shops, Safeway and MARC are still going to be expensive because of the location. Homes near Rockville Pike, Pike and Rose, the White Flint development and two Metros are still going to be expensive because of location. Even homes in Alta Vista will still be expensive because of their proximity to Bethesda and it's $2M+ homes.

Location, location, location. The only area I can see maybe taking a hit maybe is the area zoned for Farmland, which isn't close to really anything except 270.

[Anonymous]

Yes, it's really helpful to know that my @Blair kid is only 58% ready for the Ivy they were accepted to! People on this board crack me up.

[Anonymous]

Re: Location. All of these are SFH below 2,000 sq ft in DCC.

$795,000 in Takoma Park, zoned for Blair
https://www.redfin.com/MD/Takoma-Park/19-Grant-Ave-20912/home/10972777

$675,000 in Silver Spring, zoned for Northwood
https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/508-Wayne-Ave-20910/home/10967952

These are all homes that are within walking distance to shops and fixed rail, which are both zoned for high schools that will most likely have lower schools than Woodward. Buy in a good location and you won't have to worry about schools. Buy in a location where the only driving factor is schools and this boundary change might affect you, but not as much as people are making it out to be.

[Anonymous]

You'er delusional if you think houses in the WJ area are going to decrease by $100,000. If schools were so central to housing prices homes in Takoma Park wouldn't be selling for $1M. That's because it's about location first and foremost, and traffic is going to be much worse 3-4 years from now when Woodward opens, which is going to make location even more important.

OK just stop. I like Takoma Park but homes are not going for 1M. There are sometimes rare, large historical houses that will occasionally get up there but the overwhelming majority of houses that are sold, sell for much, much less. In Bethesda, tear downs sell for 1M and the high unicorn sales are up in the multi millions. In WJ there are some homes at the bottom of that area's scale in the 700s.

A 10% drop for an area being rezoned from a top W school to Einstein is actually being very conservative. A family that buys a 750K house in WJ that later becomes Einstein will be lucky to get 675K for the the house.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Some of the posts in this thread are out of line, but 100K house price reduction can be hard for families stretching it to get to WJ right now. Everyone doesn't make 400K of 800K HHI cited above in this thread. 100K reduction may not matter than much if you hake 400-800K. Some perspective is needed from both sides.

You'er delusional if you think houses in the WJ area are going to decrease by $100,000. If schools were so central to housing prices homes in Takoma Park wouldn't be selling for $1M. That's because it's about location first and foremost, and traffic is going to be much worse 3-4 years from now when Woodward opens, which is going to make location even more important.

Homes in the Town of Kensington within walking distance to the shops, Safeway and MARC are still going to be expensive because of the location. Homes near Rockville Pike, Pike and Rose, the White Flint development and two Metros are still going to be expensive because of location. Even homes in Alta Vista will still be expensive because of their proximity to Bethesda and it's $2M+ homes.

Location, location, location. The only area I can see maybe taking a hit maybe is the area zoned for Farmland, which isn't close to really anything except 270.

I am not the PP, but it's easy to attack others by saying that they are delusional. If you think house prices doesn't have any relationship with school, then you are free to think so. I work in housing related industry and 7 out 10 buyers are buying in certain areas due to school. There will be always buyers who have no kids or plan to send their kids to private, but they are not majority of buyers. Majority of buyers of SFH do send their kids to public school.

Your argument doesn't make sense at all. There will be always few homes selling for 1M in some pockets even if school is not very high in test scores. Now if you add high test scores then it's common sense that it will become more desirable. Your argument that school doesn't matter as long as commute is short is 100% wrong. RM has a good reputation, but houses are least expensive in Twinbrook despite being in RM and despite being walk to metro. Reason is simple, TB elementary school is very low performing school and that makes it undesirable for many parents with young kids despite being so close to metro.

School is surely a huge factor and some places it may play less role than others, but it will be a factor unless all houses are 2M+ where kids only attend private schools.

[Anonymous]

Odds on most of these naysayers being Amazon employees trying to drive down home prices?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

You'er delusional if you think houses in the WJ area are going to decrease by $100,000. If schools were so central to housing prices homes in Takoma Park wouldn't be selling for $1M. That's because it's about location first and foremost, and traffic is going to be much worse 3-4 years from now when Woodward opens, which is going to make location even more important.

OK just stop. I like Takoma Park but homes are not going for 1M. There are sometimes rare, large historical houses that will occasionally get up there but the overwhelming majority of houses that are sold, sell for much, much less. In Bethesda, tear downs sell for 1M and the high unicorn sales are up in the multi millions. In WJ there are some homes at the bottom of that area's scale in the 700s.

A 10% drop for an area being rezoned from a top W school to Einstein is actually being very conservative. A family that buys a 750K house in WJ that later becomes Einstein will be lucky to get 675K for the the house.

100% agree with this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Odds on most of these naysayers being Amazon employees trying to drive down home prices?

1 out of 20 potential site. Prices are not going to go up or down based on this forum.
Spending time on this forum to drive the prices down? Odds are extremely low.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Some of the posts in this thread are out of line, but 100K house price reduction can be hard for families stretching it to get to WJ right now. Everyone doesn't make 400K of 800K HHI cited above in this thread. 100K reduction may not matter than much if you hake 400-800K. Some perspective is needed from both sides.

You'er delusional if you think houses in the WJ area are going to decrease by $100,000. If schools were so central to housing prices homes in Takoma Park wouldn't be selling for $1M. That's because it's about location first and foremost, and traffic is going to be much worse 3-4 years from now when Woodward opens, which is going to make location even more important.

Homes in the Town of Kensington within walking distance to the shops, Safeway and MARC are still going to be expensive because of the location. Homes near Rockville Pike, Pike and Rose, the White Flint development and two Metros are still going to be expensive because of location. Even homes in Alta Vista will still be expensive because of their proximity to Bethesda and it's $2M+ homes.

Location, location, location. The only area I can see maybe taking a hit maybe is the area zoned for Farmland, which isn't close to really anything except 270.

Farmland is not walk to anywhere so it will take the biggest hit, but other areas will also take some hit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Your argument doesn't make sense at all. There will be always few homes selling for 1M in some pockets even if school is not very high in test scores. Now if you add high test scores then it's common sense that it will become more desirable. Your argument that school doesn't matter as long as commute is short is 100% wrong. RM has a good reputation, but houses are least expensive in Twinbrook despite being in RM and despite being walk to metro. Reason is simple, TB elementary school is very low performing school and that makes it undesirable for many parents with young kids despite being so close to metro.

Twinbrook is undesirable because it has a collection of seriously ugly homes that not even their own builder could love. This is par for the course in Twinbrook:

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Rockville/5711-Ridgway-Ave-20851/home/10515337

It's also not a "nice" neighborhood. Garrett Park and the Town of Kensington will always be nice neighborhoods because of their parks and the quality of their housing stock. The flipside of that coin is that houses in Parkwood that are a long walk from any of the stores in Kensington and Metro might suffer because of location and the quality of their housing stock.

If you just focus on location your homes will appreciate regardless of any school changes. It is going to be increasingly expensive to live around here in 3-4 years, especially close to Metro, shops and within the Beltway. Amazon comes and it's game over.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

You'er delusional if you think houses in the WJ area are going to decrease by $100,000. If schools were so central to housing prices homes in Takoma Park wouldn't be selling for $1M. That's because it's about location first and foremost, and traffic is going to be much worse 3-4 years from now when Woodward opens, which is going to make location even more important.

OK just stop. I like Takoma Park but homes are not going for 1M. There are sometimes rare, large historical houses that will occasionally get up there but the overwhelming majority of houses that are sold, sell for much, much less. In Bethesda, tear downs sell for 1M and the high unicorn sales are up in the multi millions. In WJ there are some homes at the bottom of that area's scale in the 700s.

A 10% drop for an area being rezoned from a top W school to Einstein is actually being very conservative. A family that buys a 750K house in WJ that later becomes Einstein will be lucky to get 675K for the the house.

100% agree with this.

Officials have said in multiple meetings that WJ kids are not going to be zoned to Einstein because of this change. And even if they did rezone two elementary schools to Einstein, those would be Kensington Parkwood and Garrett Park and that would, of course, increase Einstein's test scores tremendously. And like PPs have said, the area around the Wheaton area is on its way up, not down. Development around there is booming and housing prices are following suite.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

You'er delusional if you think houses in the WJ area are going to decrease by $100,000. If schools were so central to housing prices homes in Takoma Park wouldn't be selling for $1M. That's because it's about location first and foremost, and traffic is going to be much worse 3-4 years from now when Woodward opens, which is going to make location even more important.

OK just stop. I like Takoma Park but homes are not going for 1M. There are sometimes rare, large historical houses that will occasionally get up there but the overwhelming majority of houses that are sold, sell for much, much less. In Bethesda, tear downs sell for 1M and the high unicorn sales are up in the multi millions. In WJ there are some homes at the bottom of that area's scale in the 700s.

A 10% drop for an area being rezoned from a top W school to Einstein is actually being very conservative. A family that buys a 750K house in WJ that later becomes Einstein will be lucky to get 675K for the the house.

That's odd because Zillow shows over a dozen homes in my corner of TKPK that recently sold for over $1M, but don't take my word for it here's a link.
https://www.zillow.com/homes/make_me_move/Takoma-Park-MD/house_type/47942_rid/1000000-_price/4020-_mp/globalrelevanceex_sort/39.010147,-76.965623,38.940485,-77.038836_rect/13_zm/1_rs/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Your argument doesn't make sense at all. There will be always few homes selling for 1M in some pockets even if school is not very high in test scores. Now if you add high test scores then it's common sense that it will become more desirable. Your argument that school doesn't matter as long as commute is short is 100% wrong. RM has a good reputation, but houses are least expensive in Twinbrook despite being in RM and despite being walk to metro. Reason is simple, TB elementary school is very low performing school and that makes it undesirable for many parents with young kids despite being so close to metro.

Twinbrook is undesirable because it has a collection of seriously ugly homes that not even their own builder could love. This is par for the course in Twinbrook:

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Rockville/5711-Ridgway-Ave-20851/home/10515337

It's also not a "nice" neighborhood. Garrett Park and the Town of Kensington will always be nice neighborhoods because of their parks and the quality of their housing stock. The flipside of that coin is that houses in Parkwood that are a long walk from any of the stores in Kensington and Metro might suffer because of location and the quality of their housing stock.

If you just focus on location your homes will appreciate regardless of any school changes. It is going to be increasingly expensive to live around here in 3-4 years, especially close to Metro, shops and within the Beltway. Amazon comes and it's game over.

Garret Park has it's own set of ugly houses. There are nice ones and then there are ugly ones. Not as ugly as TB houses, but they are cheap looking red brick houses without any landscape. We had considered that area but decided to simply go for a townhouse in different neighborhood.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

You'er delusional if you think houses in the WJ area are going to decrease by $100,000. If schools were so central to housing prices homes in Takoma Park wouldn't be selling for $1M. That's because it's about location first and foremost, and traffic is going to be much worse 3-4 years from now when Woodward opens, which is going to make location even more important.

OK just stop. I like Takoma Park but homes are not going for 1M. There are sometimes rare, large historical houses that will occasionally get up there but the overwhelming majority of houses that are sold, sell for much, much less. In Bethesda, tear downs sell for 1M and the high unicorn sales are up in the multi millions. In WJ there are some homes at the bottom of that area's scale in the 700s.

A 10% drop for an area being rezoned from a top W school to Einstein is actually being very conservative. A family that buys a 750K house in WJ that later becomes Einstein will be lucky to get 675K for the the house.

100% agree with this.

Exactly - both Einstein and WJ will both be around 800 over capacity in 2022. When Woodward opens, it will provide space for kids from both of these nearby schools.

Officials have said in multiple meetings that WJ kids are not going to be zoned to Einstein because of this change. And even if they did rezone two elementary schools to Einstein, those would be Kensington Parkwood and Garrett Park and that would, of course, increase Einstein's test scores tremendously. And like PPs have said, the area around the Wheaton area is on its way up, not down. Development around there is booming and housing prices are following suite.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Officials have said in multiple meetings that WJ kids are not going to be zoned to Einstein because of this change. And even if they did rezone two elementary schools to Einstein, those would be Kensington Parkwood and Garrett Park and that would, of course, increase Einstein's test scores tremendously. And like PPs have said, the area around the Wheaton area is on its way up, not down. Development around there is booming and housing prices are following suite.

Exactly - both Einstein and WJ will both be around 800 over capacity in 2022. When Woodward opens, it will provide space for kids from both of these nearby schools and still have room for 1000 more!