Senate races 2026

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/2026-senate/

Recent political shifts have moved several key races in Democrats’ favor, giving the minority party an outside chance to pull off a shocker. GOP Gov. Brian Kemp isn’t running in Georgia, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper jumped in the North Carolina race and Republican infighting in Texas could prove disastrous.

The Big Four:

Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.), the cycle’s most endangered Democrat, is raising loads of money. Kemp is throwing his weight behind former college football coach Derek Dooley, an untested political novice locked in a messy primary with Georgia GOP Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter.

Trump’s team isn’t happy with Kemp for boosting Dooley. Ossoff could squeak out a general election win, but it won’t be easy in a state that went for Trump last November.

Michigan: The Wolverine State is almost the mirror image of Georgia. Republicans lined up behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in 2024. Meanwhile, Democrats have a messy primary to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) with no clear favorite.

Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) hasn’t cleared the field like Slotkin did last cycle. Stevens is battling against state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and progressive darling Abdul El-Sayed in a primary that won’t be settled until August 2026. Republicans haven’t won a Senate seat in Michigan since 1994, but Trump carried the state in 2024.

North Carolina: The general election will likely be Cooper against RNC Chair Michael Whatley. Democrats feel great about nabbing a top-tier recruit in Cooper, the popular two-term former governor. Republicans are relieved they’ve all coalesced quickly around Whatley and averted a primary.

Cooper’s impressive electoral track record statewide could make him the favorite, especially because Whatley is so unknown. But Republicans note that North Carolina backed Trump three times in a row. The question is how Whatley — the ultimate political insider — will fare in a statewide race.

Maine: There are tons of unresolved issues in the Pine Tree State, mainly whether Democratic Gov. Janet Mills will run. Mills, 77, is a well-liked executive in a state that has a long history of electing Democrats statewide — except when they’re running against Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).

Collins, 72, has said she intends to run. And she’s raising money. But at a time when the White House is thumbing its nose at Congress and the Appropriations Committee that Collins chairs, this isn’t a guarantee.

Senate GOP leaders believe Collins is the only Republican who can win in Maine. So they’re willing to let Collins freelance when she needs to — like voting against the reconciliation bill and the rescissions package.

NC - Copper will win. - He's super beloved and the NC Dem chair is busting her butt.
Michigan - Whatever Dem wins the primary will win. That race might have been tight in 2024 but with Trump not on the ballot, I don't see an R winning Michigan.
GA - Ossoff will win. He has the power of incumbency and the GOP are all lightweights.
Maine is a toss-up, as is Iowa.
I hope Dems can flip Texas but they won't with Colin Allred. Texans won't vote for Republican lite when they can have full fat.

Love this description.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa has a fantastic democratic challenger to Ernst, and if Texas isn't rigged, that one could be closer as well.

Not PP and there are several D contenders in Iowa but this is a hell of an introduction.

Nice!

[Anonymous]

Could be more shakeups in other races as incumbents flee Trump’s crazy Congress

https://www.npr.org/2025/08/13/nx-s1-5495665/lawmakers-leaving-washington-run-for-governor-congress-2026-midterms

Since President Trump returned to the White House this year, a record number of members are eyeing the exits as the Republican-led Congress has largely ceded its power to Trump's vision of the country.

With just under 15 months to go until the 2026 midterms, nine senators and 21 House members have announced they don't plan to run for reelection, each a modern record for this point before the election, according to an NPR analysis of congressional campaign data since 2017.

As of Aug. 12, there will be 470 congressional seats on the ballot in 2026: all 435 House seats, 33 regularly scheduled Senate contests and two special elections to fill the remainder of Senate terms in Ohio and Florida.

Digging into the data of congressional retirements and relocations over the last decade since Trump first took office in 2017, this year's midterm cycle is notable, too, for the surge in members of Congress looking to leave Washington and serve as governor of their state.

This includes three sitting senators: Alabama Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville, Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Colorado Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Could be more shakeups in other races as incumbents flee Trump’s crazy Congress

https://www.npr.org/2025/08/13/nx-s1-5495665/lawmakers-leaving-washington-run-for-governor-congress-2026-midterms

Since President Trump returned to the White House this year, a record number of members are eyeing the exits as the Republican-led Congress has largely ceded its power to Trump's vision of the country.

With just under 15 months to go until the 2026 midterms, nine senators and 21 House members have announced they don't plan to run for reelection, each a modern record for this point before the election, according to an NPR analysis of congressional campaign data since 2017.

As of Aug. 12, there will be 470 congressional seats on the ballot in 2026: all 435 House seats, 33 regularly scheduled Senate contests and two special elections to fill the remainder of Senate terms in Ohio and Florida.

Digging into the data of congressional retirements and relocations over the last decade since Trump first took office in 2017, this year's midterm cycle is notable, too, for the surge in members of Congress looking to leave Washington and serve as governor of their state.

This includes three sitting senators: Alabama Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville, Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Colorado Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet.

Will Boebert run for Bennett’s seat in Colorado?

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper held a lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the latest poll of North Carolina's Senate race released on Thursday.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/roy-coopers-chances-of-flipping-north-carolinas-gop-senate-seat-new-poll/ar-AA1KxeBl?ocid=BingNewsVerp
Why It Matters
Democrats view North Carolina as perhaps their best opportunity to flip a Senate seat in the 2026 midterms, when they are hoping a "blue wave" will give them a chance at winning back a majority despite a challenging map. The decision to run by Cooper, who enjoyed positive approval ratings during his time as governor, has fueled Democratic optimism about their chances.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I don't think that is a great number for Cooper. I thought his approval rate would be higher for a popular two-term governor.

[Anonymous]

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/15/senate-brown-ohio-cooper-north-carolina-00510180

Democrats are starting to finally see their path back to power in the Senate — if they squint really, really hard.
Party leaders have landed top recruits in Ohio and North Carolina, both pickup opportunities. They hope a snowball effect will push their favorite candidate in Maine, another offensive target, into that race in a state former Vice President Kamala Harris won.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa has a fantastic democratic challenger to Ernst, and if Texas isn't rigged, that one could be closer as well.

Not PP and there are several D contenders in Iowa but this is a hell of an introduction.

I’m not an Iowan, but love an underdog. Get it done Iowans!

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

The Democrats’ Biggest Senate Recruits Have One Thing in Common

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/08/democrats-old-2026/683891/

They’re old.
By Russell Berman
When news broke this week that Sherrod Brown would run next year to reclaim a Senate seat in Ohio, Democrats cheered the reports as a huge coup. Before losing a reelection bid last year, Brown had been the last Democrat to win statewide office in a state that has veered sharply to the right over the past decade. His entry instantly transforms the Ohio race from a distant dream to a plausible pickup opportunity for the party.

[Anonymous]

Maine oyster farmer wants to upend Democratic politics with Senate bid
Graham Platner wants to oust Sen. Susan Collins — and disrupt national Dems’ plans to unite around Gov. Janet Mills.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/19/graham-platner-maine-senate-campaign-launch-00513884?nname=politico-toplines&nid=0000018f-3124-de07-a98f-3be4d1400000&nrid=14a9d019-47af-4f10-9a52-6550928fdc77

A little-known oyster farmer is looking to upend top Democrats’ plans in Maine.
Democrat Graham Platner, the 40-year-old owner of Waukeag Neck Oyster Co. and an Iraq and Afghanistan War veteran, announced Tuesday he is mounting a challenge to Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Platner has never run for office, and his campaign threatens to disrupt national Democrats’ efforts to recruit and unite around Gov. Janet Mills.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maine oyster farmer wants to upend Democratic politics with Senate bid
Graham Platner wants to oust Sen. Susan Collins — and disrupt national Dems’ plans to unite around Gov. Janet Mills.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/19/graham-platner-maine-senate-campaign-launch-00513884?nname=politico-toplines&nid=0000018f-3124-de07-a98f-3be4d1400000&nrid=14a9d019-47af-4f10-9a52-6550928fdc77

A little-known oyster farmer is looking to upend top Democrats’ plans in Maine.
Democrat Graham Platner, the 40-year-old owner of Waukeag Neck Oyster Co. and an Iraq and Afghanistan War veteran, announced Tuesday he is mounting a challenge to Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Platner has never run for office, and his campaign threatens to disrupt national Democrats’ efforts to recruit and unite around Gov. Janet Mills.

I support anybody that primaries sitting candidates. It pushes our elected officials to work harder and allows people to pivot as needed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maine oyster farmer wants to upend Democratic politics with Senate bid
Graham Platner wants to oust Sen. Susan Collins — and disrupt national Dems’ plans to unite around Gov. Janet Mills.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/19/graham-platner-maine-senate-campaign-launch-00513884?nname=politico-toplines&nid=0000018f-3124-de07-a98f-3be4d1400000&nrid=14a9d019-47af-4f10-9a52-6550928fdc77

A little-known oyster farmer is looking to upend top Democrats’ plans in Maine.
Democrat Graham Platner, the 40-year-old owner of Waukeag Neck Oyster Co. and an Iraq and Afghanistan War veteran, announced Tuesday he is mounting a challenge to Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Platner has never run for office, and his campaign threatens to disrupt national Democrats’ efforts to recruit and unite around Gov. Janet Mills.

He grew up in Maine and he lives Down East. The last challenger to Collins could not say either and those things hurt in Maine.

Maine often votes blue in statewide contests, as long as you're not 'from away'.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maine oyster farmer wants to upend Democratic politics with Senate bid
Graham Platner wants to oust Sen. Susan Collins — and disrupt national Dems’ plans to unite around Gov. Janet Mills.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/19/graham-platner-maine-senate-campaign-launch-00513884?nname=politico-toplines&nid=0000018f-3124-de07-a98f-3be4d1400000&nrid=14a9d019-47af-4f10-9a52-6550928fdc77

A little-known oyster farmer is looking to upend top Democrats’ plans in Maine.
Democrat Graham Platner, the 40-year-old owner of Waukeag Neck Oyster Co. and an Iraq and Afghanistan War veteran, announced Tuesday he is mounting a challenge to Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Platner has never run for office, and his campaign threatens to disrupt national Democrats’ efforts to recruit and unite around Gov. Janet Mills.

I support anybody that primaries sitting candidates. It pushes our elected officials to work harder and allows people to pivot as needed.

A lot of these old politicians are about to get Mamdani’d this next election cycle. And I don’t mean policy wise, I mean younger politicians with less baggage and a closer ear to the ground winning seats.