Arlington "missing middle"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the title is supposed to be "Boomers and Real Estate Developers plan to ruin Arlington"

Or

"Missing Middle: in ARL you need 1.5 for an MM unit"

It’s boomers who seem to be most against missing middle.

What costs more: a $500,000 condo in a six plex, or a fancy new $2,000,000 Mcmansion?

There’s no real shortage of 500k condos in Arlington, but I guess the idea is some people would prefer to live in a non walkable neighborhood?

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/1021-N-Garfield-St-22201/unit-235/home/11281195

Those are all walkable neighborhoods. The shortage is in housing less than $1.5m in unwalkable neighborhoods. That is what these people want. They want to live in N. Arlington in a SFH, not in a condo but cannot afford it. So they think this will help them get access to those nice and leafy rich neighborhoods. The problem is that it will just make those houses even more expensive. If I own a $2.1m SFH and my lot is up zoned to 6 units then the value of my lot has at least tripled and I probably wouldn’t sell my house for less than $4m.

How on earth would your property be worth that much? It would make no sense for developers to start a bidding war for your property when there are so many across the county to develop. Countywide upzoning makes those sorts of bidding wars unlikely, which is why property values won’t increase by much, if at all.

Now we are getting somewhere. So we can agree that the only places in the county where this will make financial sense are where SFH are currently in the entry-level/lowest price ranges (<$1,000,000) and minimum lot sizes over 8,000 sq ft. When searching those conditions is looks like you’re going to get all of your “missing middle” in East Falls Church and Shirlington, which is probably not what you were expecting because its still going to cost $800,000 per unit when you can just go there and buy that now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the title is supposed to be "Boomers and Real Estate Developers plan to ruin Arlington"

Or

"Missing Middle: in ARL you need 1.5 for an MM unit"

It’s boomers who seem to be most against missing middle.

What costs more: a $500,000 condo in a six plex, or a fancy new $2,000,000 Mcmansion?

I am fascinated that you think this is how it’s going to play out. What do you think that $2m house is going to be worth once it is upzoned? You think current property owners are going to leave money on the table and hand it over to developers to profit?

Somewhere between $2.05m to $2.1m. Because it makes no sense for developers to bid each other up when there are so many other lots they could buy instead.

Research dictates that the economic value of upzoning is captured by incumbent land owners. Sorry to interrupt your fantasy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-31/zoning-reform-isn-t-a-silver-bullet-for-u-s-housing

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the title is supposed to be "Boomers and Real Estate Developers plan to ruin Arlington"

Or

"Missing Middle: in ARL you need 1.5 for an MM unit"

It’s boomers who seem to be most against missing middle.

What costs more: a $500,000 condo in a six plex, or a fancy new $2,000,000 Mcmansion?

There’s no real shortage of 500k condos in Arlington, but I guess the idea is some people would prefer to live in a non walkable neighborhood?

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/1021-N-Garfield-St-22201/unit-235/home/11281195

Those are all walkable neighborhoods. The shortage is in housing less than $1.5m in unwalkable neighborhoods. That is what these people want. They want to live in N. Arlington in a SFH, not in a condo but cannot afford it. So they think this will help them get access to those nice and leafy rich neighborhoods. The problem is that it will just make those houses even more expensive. If I own a $2.1m SFH and my lot is up zoned to 6 units then the value of my lot has at least tripled and I probably wouldn’t sell my house for less than $4m.

How on earth would your property be worth that much? It would make no sense for developers to start a bidding war for your property when there are so many across the county to develop. Countywide upzoning makes those sorts of bidding wars unlikely, which is why property values won’t increase by much, if at all.

Now we are getting somewhere. So we can agree that the only places in the county where this will make financial sense are where SFH are currently in the entry-level/lowest price ranges (<$1,000,000) and minimum lot sizes over 8,000 sq ft. When searching those conditions is looks like you’re going to get all of your “missing middle” in East Falls Church and Shirlington, which is probably not what you were expecting because its still going to cost $800,000 per unit when you can just go there and buy that now.

No, we actually don’t agree on that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the title is supposed to be "Boomers and Real Estate Developers plan to ruin Arlington"

Or

"Missing Middle: in ARL you need 1.5 for an MM unit"

It’s boomers who seem to be most against missing middle.

What costs more: a $500,000 condo in a six plex, or a fancy new $2,000,000 Mcmansion?

I am fascinated that you think this is how it’s going to play out. What do you think that $2m house is going to be worth once it is upzoned? You think current property owners are going to leave money on the table and hand it over to developers to profit?

Somewhere between $2.05m to $2.1m. Because it makes no sense for developers to bid each other up when there are so many other lots they could buy instead.

Research dictates that the economic value of upzoning is captured by incumbent land owners. Sorry to interrupt your fantasy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-31/zoning-reform-isn-t-a-silver-bullet-for-u-s-housing

That’s not responsive. Prices are still a function of competition among buyers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the title is supposed to be "Boomers and Real Estate Developers plan to ruin Arlington"

Or

"Missing Middle: in ARL you need 1.5 for an MM unit"

It’s boomers who seem to be most against missing middle.

What costs more: a $500,000 condo in a six plex, or a fancy new $2,000,000 Mcmansion?

I am fascinated that you think this is how it’s going to play out. What do you think that $2m house is going to be worth once it is upzoned? You think current property owners are going to leave money on the table and hand it over to developers to profit?

Somewhere between $2.05m to $2.1m. Because it makes no sense for developers to bid each other up when there are so many other lots they could buy instead.

Research dictates that the economic value of upzoning is captured by incumbent land owners. Sorry to interrupt your fantasy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-31/zoning-reform-isn-t-a-silver-bullet-for-u-s-housing

That’s not responsive. Prices are still a function of competition among buyers.

Yes, just wave away actual real world information in favor of something you made up in your head.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the title is supposed to be "Boomers and Real Estate Developers plan to ruin Arlington"

Or

"Missing Middle: in ARL you need 1.5 for an MM unit"

It’s boomers who seem to be most against missing middle.

What costs more: a $500,000 condo in a six plex, or a fancy new $2,000,000 Mcmansion?

I am fascinated that you think this is how it’s going to play out. What do you think that $2m house is going to be worth once it is upzoned? You think current property owners are going to leave money on the table and hand it over to developers to profit?

Somewhere between $2.05m to $2.1m. Because it makes no sense for developers to bid each other up when there are so many other lots they could buy instead.

Research dictates that the economic value of upzoning is captured by incumbent land owners. Sorry to interrupt your fantasy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-31/zoning-reform-isn-t-a-silver-bullet-for-u-s-housing

That’s not responsive. Prices are still a function of competition among buyers.

Yes, just wave away actual real world information in favor of something you made up in your head.

Did you actually read Freemark’s study? Do you understand how Chicago’s upzoning for high-rises around transit hubs differs from legalizing small multifamily buildings countywide? Are you aware of the fact that what pushed up land values was the lack of new housing built as a result? And you do realize that Freemark supports upzoning for missing middle?

Critics really need to try understanding the literature instead of cherry-picking headlines.

[Anonymous]

I would really like to live in Laguna Beach. I can't afford it though. Do you think the residents there would be open to upzoning so people like me can afford to buy there?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I would really like to live in Laguna Beach. I can't afford it though. Do you think the residents there would be open to upzoning so people like me can afford to buy there?

No idea. What I do know is that it should be legal to build multifamily homes there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would really like to live in Laguna Beach. I can't afford it though. Do you think the residents there would be open to upzoning so people like me can afford to buy there?

No idea. What I do know is that it should be legal to build multifamily homes there.

And you can. Have you ever been to Arlington?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the title is supposed to be "Boomers and Real Estate Developers plan to ruin Arlington"

Or

"Missing Middle: in ARL you need 1.5 for an MM unit"

It’s boomers who seem to be most against missing middle.

What costs more: a $500,000 condo in a six plex, or a fancy new $2,000,000 Mcmansion?

There’s no real shortage of 500k condos in Arlington, but I guess the idea is some people would prefer to live in a non walkable neighborhood?

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/1021-N-Garfield-St-22201/unit-235/home/11281195

This just proves that these things are not going to pencil out for developers. This condo unit is approx. 800 sq ft selling at $500k. Montgomery County did a missing middle study that determined that for a 6-unit apartment structure on a SF lot would generate 800 sq ft max unit size. That means that a developer will need to cover the costs of land, regulatory/fees, labor, materials, marketing, and risk adjusted profit within a total of $3m in anticipated revenue. The only areas where they can cut costs are on land and materials, so they will be targeting the cheapest houses and building them to the lowest quality standards and even then it is not clear that the risks would meet the rewards.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would really like to live in Laguna Beach. I can't afford it though. Do you think the residents there would be open to upzoning so people like me can afford to buy there?

No idea. What I do know is that it should be legal to build multifamily homes there.

And you can. Have you ever been to Arlington?

I... live here in Arlington. Have for some time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the title is supposed to be "Boomers and Real Estate Developers plan to ruin Arlington"

Or

"Missing Middle: in ARL you need 1.5 for an MM unit"

It’s boomers who seem to be most against missing middle.

What costs more: a $500,000 condo in a six plex, or a fancy new $2,000,000 Mcmansion?

There’s no real shortage of 500k condos in Arlington, but I guess the idea is some people would prefer to live in a non walkable neighborhood?

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/1021-N-Garfield-St-22201/unit-235/home/11281195

This just proves that these things are not going to pencil out for developers. This condo unit is approx. 800 sq ft selling at $500k. Montgomery County did a missing middle study that determined that for a 6-unit apartment structure on a SF lot would generate 800 sq ft max unit size. That means that a developer will need to cover the costs of land, regulatory/fees, labor, materials, marketing, and risk adjusted profit within a total of $3m in anticipated revenue. The only areas where they can cut costs are on land and materials, so they will be targeting the cheapest houses and building them to the lowest quality standards and even then it is not clear that the risks would meet the rewards.

Good bye to all old, affordable SFHs. Developers will outbid everyone. They will all get ripped down to house for singles and people without kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the title is supposed to be "Boomers and Real Estate Developers plan to ruin Arlington"

Or

"Missing Middle: in ARL you need 1.5 for an MM unit"

It’s boomers who seem to be most against missing middle.

What costs more: a $500,000 condo in a six plex, or a fancy new $2,000,000 Mcmansion?

There’s no real shortage of 500k condos in Arlington, but I guess the idea is some people would prefer to live in a non walkable neighborhood?

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/1021-N-Garfield-St-22201/unit-235/home/11281195

This just proves that these things are not going to pencil out for developers. This condo unit is approx. 800 sq ft selling at $500k. Montgomery County did a missing middle study that determined that for a 6-unit apartment structure on a SF lot would generate 800 sq ft max unit size. That means that a developer will need to cover the costs of land, regulatory/fees, labor, materials, marketing, and risk adjusted profit within a total of $3m in anticipated revenue. The only areas where they can cut costs are on land and materials, so they will be targeting the cheapest houses and building them to the lowest quality standards and even then it is not clear that the risks would meet the rewards.

Good bye to all old, affordable SFHs. Developers will outbid everyone. They will all get ripped down to house for singles and people without kids.

You don’t seem to have a problem with the fact a hundred seventy older houses are being replaced with Mcmansions every year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the title is supposed to be "Boomers and Real Estate Developers plan to ruin Arlington"

Or

"Missing Middle: in ARL you need 1.5 for an MM unit"

It’s boomers who seem to be most against missing middle.

What costs more: a $500,000 condo in a six plex, or a fancy new $2,000,000 Mcmansion?

There’s no real shortage of 500k condos in Arlington, but I guess the idea is some people would prefer to live in a non walkable neighborhood?

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/1021-N-Garfield-St-22201/unit-235/home/11281195

This just proves that these things are not going to pencil out for developers. This condo unit is approx. 800 sq ft selling at $500k. Montgomery County did a missing middle study that determined that for a 6-unit apartment structure on a SF lot would generate 800 sq ft max unit size. That means that a developer will need to cover the costs of land, regulatory/fees, labor, materials, marketing, and risk adjusted profit within a total of $3m in anticipated revenue. The only areas where they can cut costs are on land and materials, so they will be targeting the cheapest houses and building them to the lowest quality standards and even then it is not clear that the risks would meet the rewards.

Good bye to all old, affordable SFHs. Developers will outbid everyone. They will all get ripped down to house for singles and people without kids.

There are no “addordable SFHs.” Median price last year was over $1 million. Minimum price for anything that doesn’t need major rehab is like $800k.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the title is supposed to be "Boomers and Real Estate Developers plan to ruin Arlington"

Or

"Missing Middle: in ARL you need 1.5 for an MM unit"

It’s boomers who seem to be most against missing middle.

What costs more: a $500,000 condo in a six plex, or a fancy new $2,000,000 Mcmansion?

There’s no real shortage of 500k condos in Arlington, but I guess the idea is some people would prefer to live in a non walkable neighborhood?

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/1021-N-Garfield-St-22201/unit-235/home/11281195

This just proves that these things are not going to pencil out for developers. This condo unit is approx. 800 sq ft selling at $500k. Montgomery County did a missing middle study that determined that for a 6-unit apartment structure on a SF lot would generate 800 sq ft max unit size. That means that a developer will need to cover the costs of land, regulatory/fees, labor, materials, marketing, and risk adjusted profit within a total of $3m in anticipated revenue. The only areas where they can cut costs are on land and materials, so they will be targeting the cheapest houses and building them to the lowest quality standards and even then it is not clear that the risks would meet the rewards.

I think duplex and triplexes are going to be the most common form of missing middle. Simplexes will be rare, especially since they kept parking minimums.

Apparently the other cities that allowed for missing middle didn’t legalize sixplexes so I guess a big part of that push was to allow the county board members to be FIRST! The now abandoned eightplex plan also allowed to claim with a semi straight face there would be actual “affordable” units.

I think the net result is that missing middle 2.0 is going to be about ways to aggressively encourage 4+ housing - e.g., limiting single family house square footage, allowing multifamily to higher lot coverage/build taller. I guess we’ll see what happens!