So much disappointment this week

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:OP, we feel your pain. Our high-stats FCPS DC (4.41w/3.89uw, mid 1500s SAT, full IB diploma, most rigorous classes) was rejected or waitlisted at every single reach/hard target this week (Rice, WashU, NU, Mich, UCLA, Berkley etc.). Looks like the figurative University of Illinois for us.

These are all reaches. What were her matches/safeties? UVA or WM are at least as good as those schools, and a whole lot cheaper.

Message to parents of future applicants - help your kids have more realistic expectations

Our matches/safeties were Wisconsin, W&M, Pitt and a few others. DC is insisting on OOS--does not want to go to W&M and refused to apply to UVA (we insisted DC apply to one VA school and they grudgingly picked W&M). You make an excellent point about managing expectations. I was thinking that since DC was well within statistical range for every reach one would pan out since we applied to several--DC was rejected at an Ivy ED and UChi ED2. To DCs credit, they are accepting the news better than I am. DC worked really hard and we wanted them to be rewarded for it.

The was a big error in your assumptions that many, many, many parents make. But statistically, applying to 10 schools with very low acceptance rates doesn't give your kid better odds of admission than applying to 1 school with very low acceptance rates.

Also "we" didn't apply; your kid did.

Actually, applying to 10 schools with very low acceptance rates does give a kid a better chance of admissions than applying to one, but not as much as people think.

If a kid applies to a school with a 5 percent acceptance rate, if we know nothing else about that kid (hooks, RD/ED, etc, stats, ECs), our best guess is that they have a 5% chance of getting in.

If a kid applies to 10 schools, each with a 5 percent acceptance rate, their chance of getting in to at least one school is NOT 10 x 5%--that is the error that many people make.

Again, without knowing anything else and assuming college decisions are "independent events"--that is, acceptance to one is not correlated with acceptance to another--their chance of getting in to at least one school is 1-the odds of not getting into any of the ten school = 1-95%^10 = 40 percent.

But here's the thing...and again, this is where people get in trouble--that 5% acceptance rate is the rate we all have to rely on but doesn't really tell us the odds for my kid based on their profile, nor does it tell you the odds for yours. In reality, the odds for my kid getting in during the ED round might be closer to 2%.

Even bright people do not grasp this.

The first page of this essay explains some of this pretty well.....

https://lesshighschoolstress.com/

Why do you always spam this forum to promote your business, under the guise of lowering the stress of high school students and their families???

I understand your cynicism, but it's misdirected here.

[Anonymous]

The folks who are getting pitying looks from friends when discussing college admissions need to get a better group of friends.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:This makes sense, but it seems hard to gauge if your kid has a .01 % shot or a 20% shot with the black box of holistic admissions. Many people are sharing that their kid had stats above average for a school and were rejected. and it is happening again and again as the rejections roll in.

Yep +1

It IS hard to gauge. So, I would argue, it makes sense to assume your kid is in the 0.1% category and plan accordingly.

Find a safety your kid can live with, preferably one with rolling admissions or EA, and your kid should make sure the school knows of their interest.

And make sure you, the parent, demonstrate interest as well. Your kid needs to see your interest. Don't indulge dream school nonsense.

My kid got waitlisted at Case Western. Her stats were far higher than CW's averages, but she didn't visit the school and didn't show any interest other than applying. I found it baffling, but I'm guessing they didn't want to increase their admit rate for a kid who is unlikely to attend?

This is absolutely a thing. Visit your safety! Send an email asking about local events. I am convinced they know who is checking the portal, too.

They absolutely know who opens their emails and clicks on links.

OK, well, that's kind of dumb. When you know where you want to go, why would click on all the spam emails? Especially when you are not on your computer most of the time anyway. Yes, I see you, I want to go there. I don't need to click on every marketing email from you to know it. What a stupid fake measurement of interest!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The folks who are getting pitying looks from friends when discussing college admissions need to get a better group of friends.

+1. You are really hanging out with a bunch of judgmental witches.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:The folks who are getting pitying looks from friends when discussing college admissions need to get a better group of friends.

+1. You are really hanging out with a bunch of judgmental witches.

+1 and what schools did their kids get into?

[Anonymous]

You cannot have your cake and eat it too. If going to a title 1 school is so great for admissions send your kid there. If living in Mississippi is so great move there. Otherwise, equity is important.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:It's flat out depressing. I feel like I failed my child and I am not sure what else could have been done but all those years of striving for excellence, working so hard, dong so many ECs, choosing the hardest classes possible to impress colleges - it was all for nothing. With a virtual perfect academic record and a host of passionate ECs, he's rejected/wl everywhere he really wants to go.

He is in a safety schools that literally the class clowns get accepted to. I'm so sick of talking to people about it, everyone in our community assumed he was going to a T5 school - he is practically famous for being so smart - like photographic memory genius smart and they ask me about it constantly. They cant conceal their shock when I tell them the options. I cant deal with the reactions anymore.

I thought did I write this post? My DC is in the same position. I stopped talking to people. I hate that “oh” look.

You know what? I feel sad for the Mom of DD’s friend since K. Her kid has a rare disease with significant developmental issues. While all her peers graduate and start college, this girl will walk with her class, get a SPED diploma, then head to the school systems career center for another two years and hopefully emerge able to hold down a minimum wage job. She will probably never live independently. It must be very hard to watch all her kids peers move on while her child cannot. And yet this mom is kind, gracious and manages to ar least fake genuine enthusiasm for other kids college plans. I really admire her grace and strength.

I do not GAF that my kids has high achieving peers headed to CNU, VCU, CTCL schools etc. There are 4-5 kids I’ve warch grow up and genuinely care about. And I would never pitying look them. They are funny, smart and amazing and will do well anywhere. For everyone else, it’s the small talk you make ar the end of senior year. Either you are way over estimating how much brain space peoplee devote to your kid, or you’ve surrounded yourself with mean, nasty gossips. And if it’s the later, that’s on you.

Your kids health and happiness are the important think. Not the judgment at cocktail parties.

[Anonymous]

I think it’s a good thing that (some) colleges are realizing how inherently unfair the system of having “excellent (read: rich)” and “bad” public k-12 is, particularly in areas like New England (with town-based school systems) where there are few magnet & charter schools. A 14-year old in Connecticut has absolutely no choice over whether they live in Bridgeport or Greenwich.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:It's flat out depressing. I feel like I failed my child and I am not sure what else could have been done but all those years of striving for excellence, working so hard, dong so many ECs, choosing the hardest classes possible to impress colleges - it was all for nothing. With a virtual perfect academic record and a host of passionate ECs, he's rejected/wl everywhere he really wants to go.

He is in a safety schools that literally the class clowns get accepted to. I'm so sick of talking to people about it, everyone in our community assumed he was going to a T5 school - he is practically famous for being so smart - like photographic memory genius smart and they ask me about it constantly. They cant conceal their shock when I tell them the options. I cant deal with the reactions anymore.

This is a sad post.

I hope your child has better luck on Ivy Day.

This happened to a family member. Encourage your child to find a coping mechanism to deal with unexpected rejection, go to the favorite safety, take the core, and apply to transfer to one of the schools he wants to go to.

Best to not go in with this plan. Being a transfer student is really hard (once you get in).

That’s NOT the experience of my kid’s friends who transferred - several did to following schools: UVA, Stanford, USC and others - and in every case the transferring student LOVED the new school and was extremely happy they transferred.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think people forget that racial minorities are a small portion of the American population. When you get to the college campus that your child has been accepted to in the fall you'll notice this:

Most seats go to:
Upper Middle Class/Wealthy Donors or athletic students
Well connected children of Alum (politics or some other hook)
International students who can afford full price tuition
Middle Class White Students (from flyover students--Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Oklahoma)
LGB students
Under-represented minorities of color

+100

[Anonymous]

DC - 3.97 unweighted GPA at TJ. Presidential scholar nominee. 36 ACT. National science award winner. Full pay. White.

Accepted early at UVA but waitlisted at Chicago (Chicago called before decisions were out and wanted a hard commit which we declined, which may have been a mistake),
Also waitlisted at Michigan, Carnegie Mellon. Rejected at Hopkins.

Waiting on Ivy day.

Trying to figure out if this is yield protection or this is just a lousy year.

[Anonymous]

Your kid more likely than not will get into an Ivy. A kid like this seems like a good fit for Yale or Princeton. The thinking person’s Ivies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DC - 3.97 unweighted GPA at TJ. Presidential scholar nominee. 36 ACT. National science award winner. Full pay. White.

Accepted early at UVA but waitlisted at Chicago (Chicago called before decisions were out and wanted a hard commit which we declined, which may have been a mistake),
Also waitlisted at Michigan, Carnegie Mellon. Rejected at Hopkins.

Waiting on Ivy day.

Trying to figure out if this is yield protection or this is just a lousy year.

and guess what, they will be very successful at UVA if that is what it is. My kids go there now and there are some DAMN smart kids there who were in yours shoes or didn't have the funds to go out of state. Its not a school full of frat boy buffoons (heck even the frats have some very sharp and accomplished kids).

I know its probably not what they wanted, but they will be fine and find their people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC - 3.97 unweighted GPA at TJ. Presidential scholar nominee. 36 ACT. National science award winner. Full pay. White.

Accepted early at UVA but waitlisted at Chicago (Chicago called before decisions were out and wanted a hard commit which we declined, which may have been a mistake),
Also waitlisted at Michigan, Carnegie Mellon. Rejected at Hopkins.

Waiting on Ivy day.

Trying to figure out if this is yield protection or this is just a lousy year.

and guess what, they will be very successful at UVA if that is what it is. My kids go there now and there are some DAMN smart kids there who were in yours shoes or didn't have the funds to go out of state. Its not a school full of frat boy buffoons (heck even the frats have some very sharp and accomplished kids).

I know its probably not what they wanted, but they will be fine and find their people.

The real problem with the college system is that most kids don’t even have the funds to go to UVa.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think people forget that racial minorities are a small portion of the American population. When you get to the college campus that your child has been accepted to in the fall you'll notice this:

Most seats go to:
Upper Middle Class/Wealthy Donors or athletic students
Well connected children of Alum (politics or some other hook)
International students who can afford full price tuition
Middle Class White Students (from flyover students--Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Oklahoma)
LGB students
Under-represented minorities of color

+100

Yup, any bitterness I have about the process is towards schools that let in the well connected rich kids and athletes. I was told by someone I know that his kid's prep school had a "great relationship with UVA and the kids are pretty much assured acceptance." That really annoys me.