"The Numbers are Wrong": Statistical abnormalities in 2024 swing state voting patterns

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings, a “palantir” is a seeing stone that can be used to distort truth and present selective visions of reality.

Palantir Technologies bears a striking similarity.

- Robert Reich

We’re living through 1984.

[Anonymous]

Muskrat pretty much admitted the election was hacked.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Muskrat pretty much admitted the election was hacked.

And so did Trump. They can’t help but brag.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to believe there was interference, I really do, but I heard from 2 different friends who worked polling locations about how many people they saw feeding ballots into the machines with no Presidential pick marked.

My one friend texted me election night and said Harris was not winning and this was an hour or 2 before it started looking really grim on all the TV news. She said when she was monitoring the machines that ballots get fed into after voting, most young people left presidential pick blank and the older people were voting Trump.

Then a week or two later I heard similar from another friend who worked a different voting location in Fairfax. Lots of ballots going in with no pick for president.

When you look at the numbers that way, it makes sense why there are more votes for the other races than for the presidential pick. Almost 30k more people voted in our local election, Board of Supervisors, and referendums than who voted for president.

That’s not what the data says.

The data says they DID vote for president, but did not vote down ballot at about a 3000% increase over past elections, and voted split ticket with Trump at the top and all Dems down ballot to include pro choice legislation.

The data is weird, defies all statistical probability, and is worthy of a second look. Sweeping the battleground states alone should have prompted a recount. We all take bigger precautions with our checking accounts for gods sake. Double checking something that defies probability just makes sense.

So should there have been a nationwide recount in 2008?

I really don't buy that there was election interference in the battleground states. Harris underperformed everywhere and the results were consistent with the most rigorous and historically accurate pre-election surveys. Not to mention the documented long term decline in the share of the population identifying as Democrats. Look I have voted D in every election since I was eligible to vote and support trans rights, reparations, paid family leave, you name it. I am terrified of Trump's America. But I kind of get it. Democrats are off putting, lack authenticity, and have overseen the massive hollowing out of the middle class. They need to do better. Baseless conspiracy theories about election results do not help.

It hasn’t happened in 40 years. Obama didn’t win NC.

And even in the states he did win, it wasn’t by *just* enough to not qualify for a recount … in ALL of them. Please.

https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/states/north-carolina.html?action=click&contentCollection=meter-links-click&contentId=&mediaId=&module=meter-Links&pgtype=article&priority=true&referrer=&version=meter+at+26

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to believe there was interference, I really do, but I heard from 2 different friends who worked polling locations about how many people they saw feeding ballots into the machines with no Presidential pick marked.

My one friend texted me election night and said Harris was not winning and this was an hour or 2 before it started looking really grim on all the TV news. She said when she was monitoring the machines that ballots get fed into after voting, most young people left presidential pick blank and the older people were voting Trump.

Then a week or two later I heard similar from another friend who worked a different voting location in Fairfax. Lots of ballots going in with no pick for president.

When you look at the numbers that way, it makes sense why there are more votes for the other races than for the presidential pick. Almost 30k more people voted in our local election, Board of Supervisors, and referendums than who voted for president.

That is a serious Federal crime. What haven't you reported those friends for violating the secret ballot?

Or is this more MAGA fantasy worldbuilding with alternative facts?

1. Election workers need to look at ballots as part of their duties. Feeding and removing ballots from counting machines, examining damaged ballots, curing ballots, etc.
2. The ballots themselves are anonymous. The election worker has no idea WHO voted for which candidate.

So yes, if they are physically handling marked, anonymous ballots they will spot trends such as this area is more supportive of Trump, more support of Harris, lots of people are leaving the POTUS blank, etc. No laws broken because they have not tampered with ballots and have not de-anonymized the ballot.

If we hand-counted ballots, then obviously the poll workers would be looking at each cast ballot very closely with their own eyes. Is hand counting ballots also breaking the law? Of course not.

A few random anecdotes is worthless when considering statistical improbabilities nationwide. I’ll listen to the data scientists.

[Anonymous]

Lawsuit continues, with documentation requests from the plaintiffs


https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-results-lawsuit-documents-2091077

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lawsuit continues, with documentation requests from the plaintiffs


https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-results-lawsuit-documents-2091077

Thanks. Article contains links, which link to actual court documents. https://smartelections.us/lawsuits-1#b2742d7f-ae33-421f-9125-c65b35460b91

[Anonymous]

Judge Rachel Tanguay of the New York Supreme Court ruled in May that the allegations were serious enough for discovery to proceed. In an order filed earlier this month, Tanguay said all discovery—where the involved parties exchange information and evidence relevant to the case—must be completed within about seven months.

[Anonymous]

Look into how the 2020 election got 30+ million more votes than any other election before or since, which also happened to coincide with Chinese-admitted election interference and a massively unsupervised mail in balloting, and get back to us.


Because I’m all for looking at such “abnormalities”. And an extra 30 million votes is definitely an abnormality, don’t you agree?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Look into how the 2020 election got 30+ million more votes than any other election before or since, which also happened to coincide with Chinese-admitted election interference and a massively unsupervised mail in balloting, and get back to us.


Because I’m all for looking at such “abnormalities”. And an extra 30 million votes is definitely an abnormality, don’t you agree?

Largest increase was in white non college educated men who tend to vote republican. Not sure what your argument is.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/turnout-in-2020-spiked-among-both-democratic-and-republican-voting-groups-new-census-data-shows/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Look into how the 2020 election got 30+ million more votes than any other election before or since, which also happened to coincide with Chinese-admitted election interference and a massively unsupervised mail in balloting, and get back to us.


Because I’m all for looking at such “abnormalities”. And an extra 30 million votes is definitely an abnormality, don’t you agree?

I agree

It was investigated for 4 years and Trump's lawyers lost over 60 lawsuits, most of which due to Trump's lawyers admitting in court that their cases were based on perjury and fraudulent pretenses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to believe there was interference, I really do, but I heard from 2 different friends who worked polling locations about how many people they saw feeding ballots into the machines with no Presidential pick marked.

My one friend texted me election night and said Harris was not winning and this was an hour or 2 before it started looking really grim on all the TV news. She said when she was monitoring the machines that ballots get fed into after voting, most young people left presidential pick blank and the older people were voting Trump.

Then a week or two later I heard similar from another friend who worked a different voting location in Fairfax. Lots of ballots going in with no pick for president.

When you look at the numbers that way, it makes sense why there are more votes for the other races than for the presidential pick. Almost 30k more people voted in our local election, Board of Supervisors, and referendums than who voted for president.

That’s not what the data says.

The data says they DID vote for president, but did not vote down ballot at about a 3000% increase over past elections, and voted split ticket with Trump at the top and all Dems down ballot to include pro choice legislation.

The data is weird, defies all statistical probability, and is worthy of a second look. Sweeping the battleground states alone should have prompted a recount. We all take bigger precautions with our checking accounts for gods sake. Double checking something that defies probability just makes sense.

So should there have been a nationwide recount in 2008?

I really don't buy that there was election interference in the battleground states. Harris underperformed everywhere and the results were consistent with the most rigorous and historically accurate pre-election surveys. Not to mention the documented long term decline in the share of the population identifying as Democrats. Look I have voted D in every election since I was eligible to vote and support trans rights, reparations, paid family leave, you name it. I am terrified of Trump's America. But I kind of get it. Democrats are off putting, lack authenticity, and have overseen the massive hollowing out of the middle class. They need to do better. Baseless conspiracy theories about election results do not help.

It hasn’t happened in 40 years. Obama didn’t win NC.

And even in the states he did win, it wasn’t by *just* enough to not qualify for a recount … in ALL of them. Please.

Obama did win North Carolina in 2008. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election_in_North_Carolina

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to believe there was interference, I really do, but I heard from 2 different friends who worked polling locations about how many people they saw feeding ballots into the machines with no Presidential pick marked.

My one friend texted me election night and said Harris was not winning and this was an hour or 2 before it started looking really grim on all the TV news. She said when she was monitoring the machines that ballots get fed into after voting, most young people left presidential pick blank and the older people were voting Trump.

Then a week or two later I heard similar from another friend who worked a different voting location in Fairfax. Lots of ballots going in with no pick for president.

When you look at the numbers that way, it makes sense why there are more votes for the other races than for the presidential pick. Almost 30k more people voted in our local election, Board of Supervisors, and referendums than who voted for president.

That’s not what the data says.

The data says they DID vote for president, but did not vote down ballot at about a 3000% increase over past elections, and voted split ticket with Trump at the top and all Dems down ballot to include pro choice legislation.

The data is weird, defies all statistical probability, and is worthy of a second look. Sweeping the battleground states alone should have prompted a recount. We all take bigger precautions with our checking accounts for gods sake. Double checking something that defies probability just makes sense.

So should there have been a nationwide recount in 2008?

I really don't buy that there was election interference in the battleground states. Harris underperformed everywhere and the results were consistent with the most rigorous and historically accurate pre-election surveys. Not to mention the documented long term decline in the share of the population identifying as Democrats. Look I have voted D in every election since I was eligible to vote and support trans rights, reparations, paid family leave, you name it. I am terrified of Trump's America. But I kind of get it. Democrats are off putting, lack authenticity, and have overseen the massive hollowing out of the middle class. They need to do better. Baseless conspiracy theories about election results do not help.

It hasn’t happened in 40 years. Obama didn’t win NC.

And even in the states he did win, it wasn’t by *just* enough to not qualify for a recount … in ALL of them. Please.

More to the point, Dem's down ballot margin nationwide was even bigger than Obama's margin, clearly showing a widespread preference for Dems. Last year, Congress also had a larger margin than Trump.

I do think 2024 was abnormal--in the sense that it doesn't seem to make sense to apply statistical arguments to an election that was an outlier in so many non-statistical ways. Dems had an incumbent to start with who was not just old, he had become frail in presentation. Compare his last year in office to Bernie Sanders, who is 83 and able to shout and gesture with both hands as he always has. Don't need to allege overall cognitive decline to recognize that. Then we have a mid-race change of candidates and considerable objection to how Harris got her delegates, even though anything else seems wildly impractical given the time, and would have not been questioned in the past. Then we have the serious divisions over Israel.

At the same time, the judge would not have allowed discovery to proceed if the allegations were only serious, without some solid evidence to back them up.

My own opinion is that, arguably, if people actually liked Trump, he would not have had the smallest margin of any president winning the popular vote since at least Eisenhower (I looked). He squeaked by, but unfortunately he also got Congress.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Look into how the 2020 election got 30+ million more votes than any other election before or since, which also happened to coincide with Chinese-admitted election interference and a massively unsupervised mail in balloting, and get back to us.


Because I’m all for looking at such “abnormalities”. And an extra 30 million votes is definitely an abnormality, don’t you agree?

Trump sued more than 50 times and lost every case over it. He just couldn’t handle the truth: he’s a Loser.

The 2024 numbers are backed with actual data and data scientists, not vibes and fragile egos.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look into how the 2020 election got 30+ million more votes than any other election before or since, which also happened to coincide with Chinese-admitted election interference and a massively unsupervised mail in balloting, and get back to us.


Because I’m all for looking at such “abnormalities”. And an extra 30 million votes is definitely an abnormality, don’t you agree?

I agree

It was investigated for 4 years and Trump's lawyers lost over 60 lawsuits, most of which due to Trump's lawyers admitting in court that their cases were based on perjury and fraudulent pretenses.

They did it for the long game. In legal discovery they got access to voting machines to prove they were easy to hack, so they learned how to hack them, and hacked them in 2024. They definitely play a long game.

I’m too lazy to look up the source, but you can. It’s all out there, but not necessarily coordinated yet.