+1. It’s very very rare for a kid to make JO qualifying times for the next age group. There are only 7 10 year olds boys in all of PVS who have 11-12 times for 100 free. |
I’m not weighing in on the merits of the original argument, but this simply isn’t true that it’s “very very rare”. There are a lot of PVS swimmers that hit 13/14 times at 12. A lot. Don’t get me wrong, making PVS champs is a great accomplishment for an age group swimmer, but it’s not an elite meet. Plenty of the stronger swimmers will make cuts for the next age group before they age group. And I see your 100 free point, but did you look at how many current 11 year olds made the cut before they turned 11? I bet it’s more than you’d think. Again, I don’t have a strong opinion on age up approach (someone is always disadvantaged by the system depending on their birthday in every system), but it’s also very standard for age group swimmers to practice with a range of ages based on ability, not strictly age. I’m not suggesting an 8 year old practices with a 14 year old, but it’s normal to have a range of ages so that a competitive swimmer that ages up in March was likely practicing with a competitive peer group swimming that new age group at champs. |
There are three 12 year old boys in all of PVS with 13-14 cuts in 100 free. |
I assume they were talking about the girls, where it’s way more common. |
Again, this is a flawed approach. How many 13 year old boys made the 100 free cut before they turned 13? You can’t just look at current 12 year olds or your entire argument falls apart. PS - girls swim too ![]() At our club, of the 13 year old kids swimming 13/14 champs, most of them got their cuts before they turned 13. We are one smaller club and it’s more than 3 per event at one club, much less the entire LSC. It sucks for kids that age up in March, not minimizing that. But it’s just not that rare to qualify before you do. |
I don’t know of a database with this information. The numbers should be pretty similar though. |
Just looked at girls. There are zero PVS 10 year old girls with 11-12 cuts in 100 free. |
My data says otherwise but again, regardless, you can’t just look at current 10 year olds. To prove this “very very rare” point, you’d need to look at when all kids competing at age 11 hit the 11/12 cuts and how many hit them while still 10. Also, I understand that 100 free is your reference point, but I’d encourage you to look at other strokes and distances. 100 free cuts are typically tough to avoid a massive number of heats. |
Two PVS girls made the 11-12 cut in 100 free as 10 year olds so far this season. https://www.swimmingrank.com/mdva/pv/scy_girls_5_10_100FR.html Eight PVS boys made the 11-12 cut in 100 free as 10 year olds so far this season. https://www.swimmingrank.com/mdva/pv/scy_boys_5_10_100FR.html There will most likely be a few more over the next 2 months. |
25 PVS 11-12 girls (who are 11-12 right now) have the 13-14 cut in 100 free. |
I was looking at current 10 year olds, but that method is a good proxy for showing kids who made the cut while they were 10. Id say just 2 (and maybe a couple more in the next couple months) girls making it shows that it is quite rare. |
Makes sense because the jump from 10&u to 11-12 is a big one for girls. |
You also have to keep in mind that a lot less girls than boys have achieved the 11-12 JO cut in the 100 free too. As of the most recent SR update, 51 11-12 girls have the 100 free JO cut vs. 101 11-12 boys. There are also many 11 year olds in both groups thus highlighting the overarching point that even those who are a year or more below than maximum age have ample opportunity to qualify for JOs (or other similar meets throughout the year). |
You can’t look at girls aging up from 11-12 to 13-14 as your reference point, because time standards and cuts simply don’t get a whole lot faster for girls after 11-12. It has to do with physiological developmental differences between the sexes. Look at the boys and it’s a whole different story. If a 12 year old boy is making multiple 13-14 cuts, he is either an early developer or extremely elite. |
You make no sense. Current 10 year olds are exactly what you need to look at if the question is how many can get cuts as 10 year olds in the regular season before they age up just before champs. That is what we’re talking about here, kids who spend the whole season in the lower age group but then age up before champs and therefore have to qualify for the new age group before they actually reach that age. And even though you want to deny it for some reason, it is very rare, especially for boys once you get past 11-12. A whole lineup of AAAA times are not super common. |