Post your lottery results

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PK3

Maury, IB no sibling: 37
Miner: 27
AppleTree LP: 55
JO Wilson: 48
AppleTree OK Ave: Match

This is mine - Should I go ahead and assume I have no shot at Maury? From what I have read, it seems like I have a decent shot at Appletree LP?

Oh, and you have no shot at Maury at all. The last two years -- when the swing space was in play -- they made 7 and 8 total offers. The two years before (no swing space) it was 3 and 4. No way 37 comes anywhere close. You'll also start getting bumped down by kids enrolling for K and getting sib preference, so you'll likely end up more like 40 before positive movement starts. Sorry!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PK3

Maury, IB no sibling: 37
Miner: 27
AppleTree LP: 55
JO Wilson: 48
AppleTree OK Ave: Match

This is mine - Should I go ahead and assume I have no shot at Maury? From what I have read, it seems like I have a decent shot at Appletree LP?

I would think some shot, but not a good shot. Last year AP LP only made 12 offers through August for PK3. They then made 30 more in October when I'm sure a lot of people (including myself) passed... so it was probably a bunch of offers for 1-2 spots. I think at that point it's pretty random when the first person says yes; the 2 years before, for instance, they only made 20 and 23 total offers through October.

I'd add Lee East End if you have any interest in Montessori

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's interesting--one of the DC council members posted about the lottery results. A couple people appear to have a good understanding, but several others commented angrily about their results, even posting screen shots of their results. Many are for popular schools with few slots available (Brent, Janney, HRCS, etc.). Makes me realize how many people don't understand the lottery process.

Does MySchoolDC offer any tips or strategies these days, for families who are interested in maximizing chances of matching? Or do they simply tell families to list schools in the order of their true choice?

The latter

I honestly have no clue how to maximize my chances. I really struggled w/ prioritizing my choices and ultimately matched w/ first choice. But I didn’t use any particular strategy. Simply listed in order of preference. Would be interested in hearing specific strategies.

I'm the OP that raised the question. I was mostly thinking about the importance of including safety schools if you want to match somewhere, how to determine which schools may qualify as safeties based on last year's waitlists, etc.

Absent other circumstances such as an older sibling, OP, the safest school you can pick is your in-boundary school. The instruction is to rank in order of your true preference, because the risk is that if you rank a safety school above a more preferred school and are admitted, you will not even be placed on the waiting list for your most desired school. That removes any chance of you getting off that wait list. There is no way to game the system other than to include schools where something about your family makes it more likely that you will get in.

OP here--so what to do about the many angry commenters I mentioned, who don't appear to understand the odds game when selecting schools? And when I mention safety schools, it seems the criteria would be 1) a safe bet of getting in, AND 2) a school that is less desirable, but one that you wouldn't mind sending your kids to if any of your higher choices don't pan out. So safety schools would be at the end of the list, and not ranked above more preferred schools.

There is nothing to be done about the angry commenters. The people I've met who fit that bill are people who HAVE been told "rank in order of your true preference" by peers, by lottery staff, etc. and just don't believe it. They think there MUST be some way to game the system, usually because there used to be more strategic, Vegas-style ways to lottery. However, that was before the common lottery, back when there were separate lotteries for every charter school and all the DCPS schools were lumped together. As to your points about what is a safety school, safety schools traditionally have been considered to be schools that have a lot of waitlist movement, such that out of bounds students get in via the lottery or before the school year starts. It used to be that once the year started, there was a bunch of waitlist movement in September-ish as people's lists moved - a person would get off the waitlist at Inspired Teaching and would remove themselves from the waitlist at Stokes and LAMB (or whatever) and then those lists would move. That does not happen anywhere near as much as it did 5+ years ago, but people who participated in the lottery 5+ years ago still comment about how to play strategically. There is no strategy anymore other than to rank schools in order of your true preference. The ONLY thing I can think of is ranking your IB school below schools where you do not have any kind of preference, since your preference there will automatically put you higher on the waitlist.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's interesting--one of the DC council members posted about the lottery results. A couple people appear to have a good understanding, but several others commented angrily about their results, even posting screen shots of their results. Many are for popular schools with few slots available (Brent, Janney, HRCS, etc.). Makes me realize how many people don't understand the lottery process.

Does MySchoolDC offer any tips or strategies these days, for families who are interested in maximizing chances of matching? Or do they simply tell families to list schools in the order of their true choice?

The latter

I honestly have no clue how to maximize my chances. I really struggled w/ prioritizing my choices and ultimately matched w/ first choice. But I didn’t use any particular strategy. Simply listed in order of preference. Would be interested in hearing specific strategies.

I'm the OP that raised the question. I was mostly thinking about the importance of including safety schools if you want to match somewhere, how to determine which schools may qualify as safeties based on last year's waitlists, etc.

Absent other circumstances such as an older sibling, OP, the safest school you can pick is your in-boundary school. The instruction is to rank in order of your true preference, because the risk is that if you rank a safety school above a more preferred school and are admitted, you will not even be placed on the waiting list for your most desired school. That removes any chance of you getting off that wait list. There is no way to game the system other than to include schools where something about your family makes it more likely that you will get in.

OP here--so what to do about the many angry commenters I mentioned, who don't appear to understand the odds game when selecting schools? And when I mention safety schools, it seems the criteria would be 1) a safe bet of getting in, AND 2) a school that is less desirable, but one that you wouldn't mind sending your kids to if any of your higher choices don't pan out. So safety schools would be at the end of the list, and not ranked above more preferred schools.

There is nothing to be done about the angry commenters. The people I've met who fit that bill are people who HAVE been told "rank in order of your true preference" by peers, by lottery staff, etc. and just don't believe it. They think there MUST be some way to game the system, usually because there used to be more strategic, Vegas-style ways to lottery. However, that was before the common lottery, back when there were separate lotteries for every charter school and all the DCPS schools were lumped together. As to your points about what is a safety school, safety schools traditionally have been considered to be schools that have a lot of waitlist movement, such that out of bounds students get in via the lottery or before the school year starts. It used to be that once the year started, there was a bunch of waitlist movement in September-ish as people's lists moved - a person would get off the waitlist at Inspired Teaching and would remove themselves from the waitlist at Stokes and LAMB (or whatever) and then those lists would move. That does not happen anywhere near as much as it did 5+ years ago, but people who participated in the lottery 5+ years ago still comment about how to play strategically. There is no strategy anymore other than to rank schools in order of your true preference. The ONLY thing I can think of is ranking your IB school below schools where you do not have any kind of preference, since your preference there will automatically put you higher on the waitlist.

OP again, and maybe I didn't explain myself well. The angry commenters I mentioned posted screen shots in which they *only listed high-demand schools with very tiny odds of getting in.* If a family ONLY ranks these sorts of schools, even if ranked in order of their true preference, it seems they're setting themselves up to be disappointed. I don't think they tried to game the system, they just didn't understand the odds of being accepted somewhere, and how that will vary across schools, with high-demand schools giving them much slimmer odds. These commenters seem shocked that they didn't get in anywhere, and are bemoaning the unfairness of the system.

If I were MySchoolDC (ha), I'd probably add an FAQ that mentions the concept of safety schools, or the importance of historical data when determining likelihood of matching (although I agree with you that waitlist movement is down vs. the "September shuffle" several years ago), for those families who are intent on matching somewhere.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's interesting--one of the DC council members posted about the lottery results. A couple people appear to have a good understanding, but several others commented angrily about their results, even posting screen shots of their results. Many are for popular schools with few slots available (Brent, Janney, HRCS, etc.). Makes me realize how many people don't understand the lottery process.

Does MySchoolDC offer any tips or strategies these days, for families who are interested in maximizing chances of matching? Or do they simply tell families to list schools in the order of their true choice?

The latter

I honestly have no clue how to maximize my chances. I really struggled w/ prioritizing my choices and ultimately matched w/ first choice. But I didn’t use any particular strategy. Simply listed in order of preference. Would be interested in hearing specific strategies.

I'm the OP that raised the question. I was mostly thinking about the importance of including safety schools if you want to match somewhere, how to determine which schools may qualify as safeties based on last year's waitlists, etc.

Absent other circumstances such as an older sibling, OP, the safest school you can pick is your in-boundary school. The instruction is to rank in order of your true preference, because the risk is that if you rank a safety school above a more preferred school and are admitted, you will not even be placed on the waiting list for your most desired school. That removes any chance of you getting off that wait list. There is no way to game the system other than to include schools where something about your family makes it more likely that you will get in.

OP here--so what to do about the many angry commenters I mentioned, who don't appear to understand the odds game when selecting schools? And when I mention safety schools, it seems the criteria would be 1) a safe bet of getting in, AND 2) a school that is less desirable, but one that you wouldn't mind sending your kids to if any of your higher choices don't pan out. So safety schools would be at the end of the list, and not ranked above more preferred schools.

There is nothing to be done about the angry commenters. The people I've met who fit that bill are people who HAVE been told "rank in order of your true preference" by peers, by lottery staff, etc. and just don't believe it. They think there MUST be some way to game the system, usually because there used to be more strategic, Vegas-style ways to lottery. However, that was before the common lottery, back when there were separate lotteries for every charter school and all the DCPS schools were lumped together. As to your points about what is a safety school, safety schools traditionally have been considered to be schools that have a lot of waitlist movement, such that out of bounds students get in via the lottery or before the school year starts. It used to be that once the year started, there was a bunch of waitlist movement in September-ish as people's lists moved - a person would get off the waitlist at Inspired Teaching and would remove themselves from the waitlist at Stokes and LAMB (or whatever) and then those lists would move. That does not happen anywhere near as much as it did 5+ years ago, but people who participated in the lottery 5+ years ago still comment about how to play strategically. There is no strategy anymore other than to rank schools in order of your true preference. The ONLY thing I can think of is ranking your IB school below schools where you do not have any kind of preference, since your preference there will automatically put you higher on the waitlist.

OP again, and maybe I didn't explain myself well. The angry commenters I mentioned posted screen shots in which they *only listed high-demand schools with very tiny odds of getting in.* If a family ONLY ranks these sorts of schools, even if ranked in order of their true preference, it seems they're setting themselves up to be disappointed. I don't think they tried to game the system, they just didn't understand the odds of being accepted somewhere, and how that will vary across schools, with high-demand schools giving them much slimmer odds. These commenters seem shocked that they didn't get in anywhere, and are bemoaning the unfairness of the system.

If I were MySchoolDC (ha), I'd probably add an FAQ that mentions the concept of safety schools, or the importance of historical data when determining likelihood of matching (although I agree with you that waitlist movement is down vs. the "September shuffle" several years ago), for those families who are intent on matching somewhere.

Yeah that's a great point. You can't 'game' the system but you can at least put some safeties at the bottom of your list so you don't end up completely stuck with no options.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's interesting--one of the DC council members posted about the lottery results. A couple people appear to have a good understanding, but several others commented angrily about their results, even posting screen shots of their results. Many are for popular schools with few slots available (Brent, Janney, HRCS, etc.). Makes me realize how many people don't understand the lottery process.

Does MySchoolDC offer any tips or strategies these days, for families who are interested in maximizing chances of matching? Or do they simply tell families to list schools in the order of their true choice?

The latter

I honestly have no clue how to maximize my chances. I really struggled w/ prioritizing my choices and ultimately matched w/ first choice. But I didn’t use any particular strategy. Simply listed in order of preference. Would be interested in hearing specific strategies.

I'm the OP that raised the question. I was mostly thinking about the importance of including safety schools if you want to match somewhere, how to determine which schools may qualify as safeties based on last year's waitlists, etc.

Absent other circumstances such as an older sibling, OP, the safest school you can pick is your in-boundary school. The instruction is to rank in order of your true preference, because the risk is that if you rank a safety school above a more preferred school and are admitted, you will not even be placed on the waiting list for your most desired school. That removes any chance of you getting off that wait list. There is no way to game the system other than to include schools where something about your family makes it more likely that you will get in.

OP here--so what to do about the many angry commenters I mentioned, who don't appear to understand the odds game when selecting schools? And when I mention safety schools, it seems the criteria would be 1) a safe bet of getting in, AND 2) a school that is less desirable, but one that you wouldn't mind sending your kids to if any of your higher choices don't pan out. So safety schools would be at the end of the list, and not ranked above more preferred schools.

There is nothing to be done about the angry commenters. The people I've met who fit that bill are people who HAVE been told "rank in order of your true preference" by peers, by lottery staff, etc. and just don't believe it. They think there MUST be some way to game the system, usually because there used to be more strategic, Vegas-style ways to lottery. However, that was before the common lottery, back when there were separate lotteries for every charter school and all the DCPS schools were lumped together. As to your points about what is a safety school, safety schools traditionally have been considered to be schools that have a lot of waitlist movement, such that out of bounds students get in via the lottery or before the school year starts. It used to be that once the year started, there was a bunch of waitlist movement in September-ish as people's lists moved - a person would get off the waitlist at Inspired Teaching and would remove themselves from the waitlist at Stokes and LAMB (or whatever) and then those lists would move. That does not happen anywhere near as much as it did 5+ years ago, but people who participated in the lottery 5+ years ago still comment about how to play strategically. There is no strategy anymore other than to rank schools in order of your true preference. The ONLY thing I can think of is ranking your IB school below schools where you do not have any kind of preference, since your preference there will automatically put you higher on the waitlist.

OP again, and maybe I didn't explain myself well. The angry commenters I mentioned posted screen shots in which they *only listed high-demand schools with very tiny odds of getting in.* If a family ONLY ranks these sorts of schools, even if ranked in order of their true preference, it seems they're setting themselves up to be disappointed. I don't think they tried to game the system, they just didn't understand the odds of being accepted somewhere, and how that will vary across schools, with high-demand schools giving them much slimmer odds. These commenters seem shocked that they didn't get in anywhere, and are bemoaning the unfairness of the system.

If I were MySchoolDC (ha), I'd probably add an FAQ that mentions the concept of safety schools, or the importance of historical data when determining likelihood of matching (although I agree with you that waitlist movement is down vs. the "September shuffle" several years ago), for those families who are intent on matching somewhere.

I'm the PP. My first lottery experience was for SY2013-2014, and since then, there have always been people who list schools that have not accepted any OOB kids, hoping that they will be the exception. Those people are ALWAYS vocally disappointed and bemoan the lack of fairness in the system. They pick 12 schools that have a very low chance of admission and then say that the system is unfair because they got shut out. There's nothing to be done about those people. That said, I would say that in the last 3-ish years, it has been increasingly difficult for your average 3yo outside of Wards 7 and 8 with no older sibling or geographical preference to get accepted in the initial lottery to anywhere other than their IB school. The reality is that there are more kids than PK3 seats in all but Wards 7 and 8, and when people get upset that they got shut out, it's largely because the other 10 families on their block with kids the same age as their kid were also lotterying for the same 8 spots. While it is certainly true that someone always wins with a great draw (see above PP with a rising 4th grader who must have been the very first rising 4th grader pulled because they're #1 at most of the desirable schools), it is also always true that someone always loses.

The good news for most people is that in kindergarten, your kid is guaranteed a seat at your IB school, so you will not be "totally shut out." If you bought a house in boundary for a school you're not willing to send your child to, that decision is on you, not the lottery.

[Anonymous]

My SIL matched ps3 for School Within a School, no sibling preference. I’m stunned

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:1 Hyde-Addison Elementary School Waitlisted - #43
2 School Without Walls @ Francis-Stevens Waitlisted - #25
3 Shepherd Elementary School Waitlisted - #10
4 Marie Reed Elementary School Waitlisted - #55
5 Marie Reed Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #53
6 Bancroft Elementary School - English Dominant Waitlisted - #59
7 H.D. Cooke Elementary School Waitlisted - #31
8 Seaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #15

Is there any chance we will get in anywhere for pre-school?

Shepherd made 36 offers last year so I'd say at a minimum you have a solid shot there.

I don’t think this is accurate. Shepherd made 15 offers to waitlist. They had 15 IB kids waitlisted. I’d say they didn’t make any offers to OOB last year for PK3. Where did you get 36 from?

Ohhh sorry I was adding up the WL offers from MSDC but they are cumulative. You're right, 15. But wouldn't that still mean that #10 is probably ok?

The IB population has been growing each year. There are in-bound PK3 who never cleared the waitlist both this year and last. So if you're not in-bounds, very unlikely. Keep in mind anyone in-bounds who applies in Round 2 or moves in later immediately goes to the front of the WL ahead of OOB.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Swami,

Going into K:

5 Eaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #46
6 Mann Elementary School Waitlisted - #41
7 Shepherd Elementary School Waitlisted - #11
9 Hyde-Addison Elementary School Waitlisted - #35
11 Mundo Verde Bilingual PCS - P Street NW Waitlisted - #9
12 Inspired Teaching Demonstration PCS Waitlisted - #21

Any chance for Hyde-Addison (going back to Georgetown), Mann (went to waitlist #55 last year, but was in swing space last year), Eaton (went to waitlist #36 in 2017, only moved 4 spots last year, but moving to swing space this year)? This matters because I have twins. I'm thinking - if we get a WOTP offer - it will be in October, and it will only be for one spot. We are willing to send the kids to separate schools for year. But, we might need an afternoon caretaker or maybe au pair - which means we need to start planning back-up plans now?

Thanks!

What's your IB?

[Anonymous]

Anyone one... swami or others on Van Ness WL #2 (IB)? Was last year an anomaly where no one moved off the wait list?

[Anonymous]

Our number must have been terrible since we're #52 IB for Bancroft.

Odds of offer before October for
Breakthrough Petworth WL #120
Bethune 16th St WL #14

Based on historical data there's a chance at Breakthrough, especially if folks bail on Petworth since it's closing (eventually).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PK3:

1. Washington Yu Ying PCS Waitlisted - #10
2 School-Within-School Waitlisted - #25
3 Hyde-Addison Elementary School Waitlisted - #65
4 Inspired Teaching Demonstration PCS Match (enrollment pending)

Super excited, but what are our chances of moving up on our list? We got a pretty good number, I think.

Early elementary at ITS is very solid.

[Anonymous]

Threw in our hat for 7th grade. Pretty grim...

1 BASIS DC PCS - #92
2 Washington Latin PCS - #126
3 DCI (Spanish Language Program) - #67

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's interesting--one of the DC council members posted about the lottery results. A couple people appear to have a good understanding, but several others commented angrily about their results, even posting screen shots of their results. Many are for popular schools with few slots available (Brent, Janney, HRCS, etc.). Makes me realize how many people don't understand the lottery process.

Does MySchoolDC offer any tips or strategies these days, for families who are interested in maximizing chances of matching? Or do they simply tell families to list schools in the order of their true choice?

The latter

I honestly have no clue how to maximize my chances. I really struggled w/ prioritizing my choices and ultimately matched w/ first choice. But I didn’t use any particular strategy. Simply listed in order of preference. Would be interested in hearing specific strategies.

I'm the OP that raised the question. I was mostly thinking about the importance of including safety schools if you want to match somewhere, how to determine which schools may qualify as safeties based on last year's waitlists, etc.

Absent other circumstances such as an older sibling, OP, the safest school you can pick is your in-boundary school. The instruction is to rank in order of your true preference, because the risk is that if you rank a safety school above a more preferred school and are admitted, you will not even be placed on the waiting list for your most desired school. That removes any chance of you getting off that wait list. There is no way to game the system other than to include schools where something about your family makes it more likely that you will get in.

Correct @ the poster above that suggested a high ranked IB strategy. We matched at our IB, ranked first, and are happy. I talked to another parent that matched at their IB, ranked last, and is pissed.

It takes a while to figure this out though. I'm an experienced player.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PK3, No sibling preference

School-Within-School #4
Peabody Elementary #74
Lee Montessori PCS - East End #2
AppleTree PCS - Lincoln Park Match (enrollment pending)
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LAMB Match (enrollment pending)

Ha, this is the first one to make me turn green with envy. Great options — congrats!