Tempted to move to great falls from McLean as prices seem to be falling

[Anonymous]

Here is the Washingtonian Quote

"The median home price in Potomac’s 20854 fell by 3.7 percent last year, to $855,000. Great Falls dropped by 4.7 percent, to just over $1 million. Over the past ten years, as demand for homes in walkable urban centers has steadily increased, demand for those in swanky drivable suburbs has slipped, according to research by Christopher Leinberger, chair of the Center for Real Estate and Urban Analysis and an expert on walkable urbanism. Leinberger says Washington has an excess of suburban cul-de-sac homes and a shortage of two-bedroom downtown condos: “We built too much of the McLeans and the Potomacs.”
The result will likely be downward pressure on home prices in farther-afield neighborhoods with large lots and mansions (or at least McMansions)."

[Anonymous]

I think the changes in GF and prices is all demographics - the green lawns of the burbs don't have the allure they once did to older generations - now it's all about living in close and walkability scores, at least for enough people that it is affecting demand and property values. I live in Great Falls and love it, but I've noticed a lot of my newer neighbors tend to foreign born with 3 generations in the house. That's fine, but it's not what they are replacing in those homes. GF is definitely changing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like GF is good if you work in Reston or Tysons.

I do expect prices to continue to slide, however, as places need to capture a decent share of high-paid DC workers to maintain price levels as high as GF's historical levels. It doesn't matter if a handful of GF residents live close enough to catch a bus on Route 7 to a Metro station. For the most part, GF is the epitome of a car-dependent suburb with limited access to public transportation.

The distance to the middle and high schools is a negative, too. Imagine how much more convenient it would be if Langley were near 193 and River Bend Road, rather than near the Arlington County border. Unfortunately, there is only one high school in FCPS west of the Beltway and north of the Toll Road - Herndon.

HAHAHAHAHHAAA!!! Have you not heard about all the high tech west of the beltway????

It's less like Silicon Valley and more like the back-office operations you find in Jersey City or Schaumburg. Good jobs that typically pay salaries that make Ashburn and Chantilly affordable, not Great Falls at its current prices. That's why there is so much inventory there and why, insofar Great Falls is being repositioned as a residential area for those who work in Tysons or points west, prices are coming down.

The instiutions that created the demand for the 1.5 - 2.0M homes in Great Falls are either gone or shadows of what they were. Financial Services - Freddie Mac was a huge driver of employment and cash/option compensation. Bankruptcy wiped out all of that stock and options, and it is not generating the kind of compensation it once did. Tech bubble companies - AOL, Microstrategy, etc - are either gone, or much more mature and not spreading around cash like they did. Government contractors have been in a cycle of cuts since sequestration. There were at one point entire neighborhoods in Great Falls of folks who hit it big at AOL. 15 years on those folks have either downsized or are struggling to stay in their houses. It seems that if you give a purchasing manager a $2M option windfall, their skills and compensation are still that or a purchasing manager. So little by little they spend their windfall and then they need to move.

Yes, because everyone in this situation is as you dictate - not reality, at all. Maybe they invested their "windfall" (much more than you think, BTW), and maybe they have family money, inheritances (plural) or other investments you know nothing about.

But since you know everyone and every single person's situation, I suppose reality is not a possibility, in your tiny mind. You think so, so it must be true.

You must be correct - the falling property values are just a big conspiracy. There cannot be market forces at play.

You have quite an imagination!

The decline in Great Falls prices is well documented.

http://www.zillow.com/great-falls-va/home-values/

That's interesting - down 4.2%. But if you plug in close in neighborhoods like McLean or Bethesda, they are only up like 1%. I would have thought it would be more from all the bidding wars documented on DCUM. Or are the bidding wars over the just the few 'perfect' houses?

Don't point this out.

It doesn't fit their narrative that everyone is moving inside the beltway to be closer to DC so that their kids can hop on the metro to visit the museums on the weekends.

From the April 2016 Washingtonian: "The traffic—and general trend of moving into city centers—is a culprit for the [Great Falls] Zip’s median price drop of nearly 5 percent."

Well, that settles that. The Washingtonian. That's real journalism. Not some fluff BS


As to the PP who said she was 'suspending her search in GF" - Troll score 0/10

We were searching in Great Falls and have stopped. Not sure why that is a troll score? We are seriously concerned with the market and don't think it is a good time to buy a home there.

No reason to rush. You can always wait for the prices there to drop some more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here is the Washingtonian Quote

"The median home price in Potomac’s 20854 fell by 3.7 percent last year, to $855,000. Great Falls dropped by 4.7 percent, to just over $1 million. Over the past ten years, as demand for homes in walkable urban centers has steadily increased, demand for those in swanky drivable suburbs has slipped, according to research by Christopher Leinberger, chair of the Center for Real Estate and Urban Analysis and an expert on walkable urbanism. Leinberger says Washington has an excess of suburban cul-de-sac homes and a shortage of two-bedroom downtown condos: “We built too much of the McLeans and the Potomacs.”
The result will likely be downward pressure on home prices in farther-afield neighborhoods with large lots and mansions (or at least McMansions)."

Why yes, when I do my academic research, "Washingtonian" is the first place I go!

[Anonymous]

Some of it is just traffic / commuting. I bought in a closer neighborhood, also not really walkable, but just slightly less painful to get downtown.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like GF is good if you work in Reston or Tysons.

I do expect prices to continue to slide, however, as places need to capture a decent share of high-paid DC workers to maintain price levels as high as GF's historical levels. It doesn't matter if a handful of GF residents live close enough to catch a bus on Route 7 to a Metro station. For the most part, GF is the epitome of a car-dependent suburb with limited access to public transportation.

The distance to the middle and high schools is a negative, too. Imagine how much more convenient it would be if Langley were near 193 and River Bend Road, rather than near the Arlington County border. Unfortunately, there is only one high school in FCPS west of the Beltway and north of the Toll Road - Herndon.

HAHAHAHAHHAAA!!! Have you not heard about all the high tech west of the beltway????

It's less like Silicon Valley and more like the back-office operations you find in Jersey City or Schaumburg. Good jobs that typically pay salaries that make Ashburn and Chantilly affordable, not Great Falls at its current prices. That's why there is so much inventory there and why, insofar Great Falls is being repositioned as a residential area for those who work in Tysons or points west, prices are coming down.

The instiutions that created the demand for the 1.5 - 2.0M homes in Great Falls are either gone or shadows of what they were. Financial Services - Freddie Mac was a huge driver of employment and cash/option compensation. Bankruptcy wiped out all of that stock and options, and it is not generating the kind of compensation it once did. Tech bubble companies - AOL, Microstrategy, etc - are either gone, or much more mature and not spreading around cash like they did. Government contractors have been in a cycle of cuts since sequestration. There were at one point entire neighborhoods in Great Falls of folks who hit it big at AOL. 15 years on those folks have either downsized or are struggling to stay in their houses. It seems that if you give a purchasing manager a $2M option windfall, their skills and compensation are still that or a purchasing manager. So little by little they spend their windfall and then they need to move.

Yes, because everyone in this situation is as you dictate - not reality, at all. Maybe they invested their "windfall" (much more than you think, BTW), and maybe they have family money, inheritances (plural) or other investments you know nothing about.

But since you know everyone and every single person's situation, I suppose reality is not a possibility, in your tiny mind. You think so, so it must be true.

You must be correct - the falling property values are just a big conspiracy. There cannot be market forces at play.

You have quite an imagination!

The decline in Great Falls prices is well documented.

http://www.zillow.com/great-falls-va/home-values/

That's interesting - down 4.2%. But if you plug in close in neighborhoods like McLean or Bethesda, they are only up like 1%. I would have thought it would be more from all the bidding wars documented on DCUM. Or are the bidding wars over the just the few 'perfect' houses?

NWDC is up 6.7%

[Anonymous]

^^ that's 20008

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Some of it is just traffic / commuting. I bought in a closer neighborhood, also not really walkable, but just slightly less painful to get downtown.

+1

May as well have more beautiful house to show for it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some of it is just traffic / commuting. I bought in a closer neighborhood, also not really walkable, but just slightly less painful to get downtown.

+1

May as well have more beautiful house to show for it.

There are beautiful homes closer in and you will have a less painful commute. Win/win.

[Anonymous]

Umpteen pages here, but it comes down to Great Falls being a lovely place for those who value space and privacy, a very bad commute for those who have to travel during rush hour much past Tysons/Reston, and an iffy proposition from a pure real estate investment perspective.

[Anonymous]

.com boom nouveau rich 90s era, gf time has passed, only down hill from here

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:.com boom nouveau rich 90s era, gf time has passed, only down hill from here

I'd prefer McLean, particularly Langley school district which gives you a better commute but still decent lot sizes. That being said, this is a bit of an overstatement. GF still has its place in the luxury market.

[Anonymous]

Great falling prices hah

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:.com boom nouveau rich 90s era, gf time has passed, only down hill from here

I'd prefer McLean, particularly Langley school district which gives you a better commute but still decent lot sizes. That being said, this is a bit of an overstatement. GF still has its place in the luxury market.

I think Mclean holds it value no matter what - Tysons, DC, Reston all easy commutes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:.com boom nouveau rich 90s era, gf time has passed, only down hill from here

I'd prefer McLean, particularly Langley school district which gives you a better commute but still decent lot sizes. That being said, this is a bit of an overstatement. GF still has its place in the luxury market.

I think Mclean holds it value no matter what - Tysons, DC, Reston all easy commutes.

Read slowly, maybe a few times: It depends where you work. Not everyone works where you want them to work. Great Falls is an easy commute for most people. If you don't like other people's choices, you don't have to move there. Problem solved.