Tempted to move to great falls from McLean as prices seem to be falling

[Anonymous]

I have no idea why people are surprised that these $2 million and $9 million homes are still not selling two years later. A) That's a lot of dough. B) That's a lot of dough to live in Great Falls. C) If I had $5 million to spend on a home, I wouldn't buy something like that to rattle in it'd be a penthouse in Manhattan.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/23-E-22nd-St-14B-New-York-NY-10010/97501023_zpid/

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/25-Mercer-St-2-New-York-NY-10013/97512113_zpid/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This isn't very PC, but here goes: A lot of Asians have moved to that area in the last couple of years especially from the Middle East and East Asia. They seem to favor the large houses. As immigration from this region slows as it will, these houses will fall from favor. Also keep in mind, Boomers liked these type of houses.

As the children of these immigrants, will they like these type of houses? That question will drive whether Great Falls keeps its cachet.

I don't know if it's PC or not, but the observations don't seem very grounded in actual facts (for example, do you really have any idea how many of the buyers are first-generation immigrants, as opposed to their children or non-Asians?)

I could just as easily surmise that the Arlington market will eventually tank because Arlington has been especially popular with whites, who will be a minority in the United States in a few decades.

+1

I don't think the Trump loving preppers of McLean want to hear this - but you are accurate.

Thanks. But Trump has very little support in McLean. It's mostly HRC territory and Rubio was the most popular Republican in the primaries. If the Rubio supporters have switched their allegiance to Trump they are keeping it quiet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:House in wolf Trap Green just dropped from 995 to 865! GF price drops are huge right now.

It wasn't priced appropriately. A larger house in the neighborhood recently sold for $980k; a slightly smaller home just down the road is currently listed at $790k. The home you mention is in-between the others in terms of size (and it wasn't as nicely appointed), so it clearly wasn't priced right initially.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This isn't very PC, but here goes: A lot of Asians have moved to that area in the last couple of years especially from the Middle East and East Asia. They seem to favor the large houses. As immigration from this region slows as it will, these houses will fall from favor. Also keep in mind, Boomers liked these type of houses.

As the children of these immigrants, will they like these type of houses? That question will drive whether Great Falls keeps its cachet.

I don't know if it's PC or not, but the observations don't seem very grounded in actual facts (for example, do you really have any idea how many of the buyers are first-generation immigrants, as opposed to their children or non-Asians?)

I could just as easily surmise that the Arlington market will eventually tank because Arlington has been especially popular with whites, who will be a minority in the United States in a few decades.

+1

I don't think the Trump loving preppers of McLean want to hear this - but you are accurate.

On my morning commute, I have seen only two homes with Trump signs -- one at a gaudy McMansion in McLean, and one at the home of a very elderly couple in Great Falls.

Thanks. But Trump has very little support in McLean. It's mostly HRC territory and Rubio was the most popular Republican in the primaries. If the Rubio supporters have switched their allegiance to Trump they are keeping it quiet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This isn't very PC, but here goes: A lot of Asians have moved to that area in the last couple of years especially from the Middle East and East Asia. They seem to favor the large houses. As immigration from this region slows as it will, these houses will fall from favor. Also keep in mind, Boomers liked these type of houses.

As the children of these immigrants, will they like these type of houses? That question will drive whether Great Falls keeps its cachet.

I don't know if it's PC or not, but the observations don't seem very grounded in actual facts (for example, do you really have any idea how many of the buyers are first-generation immigrants, as opposed to their children or non-Asians?)

I could just as easily surmise that the Arlington market will eventually tank because Arlington has been especially popular with whites, who will be a minority in the United States in a few decades.

+1

I don't think the Trump loving preppers of McLean want to hear this - but you are accurate.

Thanks. But Trump has very little support in McLean. It's mostly HRC territory and Rubio was the most popular Republican in the primaries. If the Rubio supporters have switched their allegiance to Trump they are keeping it quiet.

They are. And there is TONS of Trump support in McLean, don't you worry.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This isn't very PC, but here goes: A lot of Asians have moved to that area in the last couple of years especially from the Middle East and East Asia. They seem to favor the large houses. As immigration from this region slows as it will, these houses will fall from favor. Also keep in mind, Boomers liked these type of houses.

As the children of these immigrants, will they like these type of houses? That question will drive whether Great Falls keeps its cachet.

I don't know if it's PC or not, but the observations don't seem very grounded in actual facts (for example, do you really have any idea how many of the buyers are first-generation immigrants, as opposed to their children or non-Asians?)

I could just as easily surmise that the Arlington market will eventually tank because Arlington has been especially popular with whites, who will be a minority in the United States in a few decades.

+1

I don't think the Trump loving preppers of McLean want to hear this - but you are accurate.

Thanks. But Trump has very little support in McLean. It's mostly HRC territory and Rubio was the most popular Republican in the primaries. If the Rubio supporters have switched their allegiance to Trump they are keeping it quiet.

They are. And there is TONS of Trump support in McLean, don't you worry.

To be honest, I only care about the extent of Trump support when the votes in the Electoral College are tallied. But if past elections are any guide, McLean south of 123 will favor Clinton in large numbers, McLean north of 123 will be split but lean slightly Democratic, and Great Falls will mostly vote for Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:House in wolf Trap Green just dropped from 995 to 865! GF price drops are huge right now.

Where is wolf trap green? Nevermind I found it. Route 7 near Colvin Run. Not in core Great falls- all the stuff where route 7 is the access road are always discounted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:House in wolf Trap Green just dropped from 995 to 865! GF price drops are huge right now.

I saw that! Wonder what's going on. Seems nice enough. Needs some updating, but I would have thought it would have sold.

[Anonymous]

My post is a few years late, but I've just finished reading all 27 pages of this thread, which I found informative and entertaining. I currently live in Palo Alto, CA but grew up in Great Falls in the 80s/90s and am here for the week visiting my family. Our home is located in one of the neighborhoods with homes in the $4mm+ and 5+ acre range not far from Great Falls Center. I was surprised at all of the change in Great Falls, which is how I stumbled onto this site. I'd like to address a few points that have been frequently raised and would love your thoughts:

1. Declining median home prices:

Could this be a direct result of the mere fact that Great Falls now has more affordable Toll Brothers-inspired model homes and fewer custom homes on large properties, which have now become subdivisions undifferentiated from those in neighboring towns like Reston? One would expect median home prices to decline if more low-quality homes have been built atop (formerly) more expensive properties.

Could this be driven by the possibility that Great Falls today offers fewer amenities that cater to the wealthy (horse trails and barns, open land, high-quality social/golf clubs, easy access to private schools)? It was my impression that many of the Great Falls families in the 80s and 90s lived here to be close to their horses and to enjoy their open space. Sending children to St. Albans/Sidwell/Potomac School from Great Falls was not uncommon.

Could this be an indirect result of speculative home builders creating abominable monstrosities that baffle the mind and which few would appreciate? It's possible that these eye sores are indeed a plague on all our houses as they detract significantly from the former aesthetic value of Great Falls. Some claim that these homes appeal to a different, sometimes foreign, sense of style, but I'm not convinced. I've traveled the world and have never seen the same whimsical placement and/or omission of windows, roof lines, materials, and colors.

Examples below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RJUndCLZzM
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/mclean/1383-woodside-dr-mclean-va-22102--2020424719
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/mclean/938-peacock-station-rd-mclean-va-22102--1150804225
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/great-falls/800-hortense-pl-great-falls-va-22066--2020401357

2. Traffic makes a DC commute infeasible

Based on comments from my parents, the commute into DC is only slightly worse today than it was in the 90s, but as an earlier poster mentioned, the drive is no longer "worth" it. Is it possible that the commute time isn't much worse, but the quality of the commute is? I have childhood memories of parents saying that they actually enjoyed the scenic drive on Georgetown Pike or Old Dominion Drive, with the many open meadows to gaze at. Even in traffic, it was apparently enjoyable to stare into an adjacent meadow and admire the horses or deer. Studies have shown that merely looking into nature from a window has noticeable health benefits, but Great Falls today might offer the opposite: imposing out-of-place souped-up model homes with "glamorous" gates and fountains in front. In the 90s, consensus thought was that McMansions would increase median home values and the appeal of Great Falls, but I wonder now if they are failing to hold value and have irreparably detracted from Great Falls' former charm.

3. Is there anything we can do through the Great Falls Citizens Association or otherwise to reverse some of these possible trends?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My post is a few years late, but I've just finished reading all 27 pages of this thread, which I found informative and entertaining. I currently live in Palo Alto, CA but grew up in Great Falls in the 80s/90s and am here for the week visiting my family. Our home is located in one of the neighborhoods with homes in the $4mm+ and 5+ acre range not far from Great Falls Center. I was surprised at all of the change in Great Falls, which is how I stumbled onto this site. I'd like to address a few points that have been frequently raised and would love your thoughts:

1. Declining median home prices:

Could this be a direct result of the mere fact that Great Falls now has more affordable Toll Brothers-inspired model homes and fewer custom homes on large properties, which have now become subdivisions undifferentiated from those in neighboring towns like Reston? One would expect median home prices to decline if more low-quality homes have been built atop (formerly) more expensive properties.

Could this be driven by the possibility that Great Falls today offers fewer amenities that cater to the wealthy (horse trails and barns, open land, high-quality social/golf clubs, easy access to private schools)? It was my impression that many of the Great Falls families in the 80s and 90s lived here to be close to their horses and to enjoy their open space. Sending children to St. Albans/Sidwell/Potomac School from Great Falls was not uncommon.

Could this be an indirect result of speculative home builders creating abominable monstrosities that baffle the mind and which few would appreciate? It's possible that these eye sores are indeed a plague on all our houses as they detract significantly from the former aesthetic value of Great Falls. Some claim that these homes appeal to a different, sometimes foreign, sense of style, but I'm not convinced. I've traveled the world and have never seen the same whimsical placement and/or omission of windows, roof lines, materials, and colors.

Examples below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RJUndCLZzM
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/mclean/1383-woodside-dr-mclean-va-22102--2020424719
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/mclean/938-peacock-station-rd-mclean-va-22102--1150804225
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/great-falls/800-hortense-pl-great-falls-va-22066--2020401357

2. Traffic makes a DC commute infeasible

Based on comments from my parents, the commute into DC is only slightly worse today than it was in the 90s, but as an earlier poster mentioned, the drive is no longer "worth" it. Is it possible that the commute time isn't much worse, but the quality of the commute is? I have childhood memories of parents saying that they actually enjoyed the scenic drive on Georgetown Pike or Old Dominion Drive, with the many open meadows to gaze at. Even in traffic, it was apparently enjoyable to stare into an adjacent meadow and admire the horses or deer. Studies have shown that merely looking into nature from a window has noticeable health benefits, but Great Falls today might offer the opposite: imposing out-of-place souped-up model homes with "glamorous" gates and fountains in front. In the 90s, consensus thought was that McMansions would increase median home values and the appeal of Great Falls, but I wonder now if they are failing to hold value and have irreparably detracted from Great Falls' former charm.

3. Is there anything we can do through the Great Falls Citizens Association or otherwise to reverse some of these possible trends?

I'll bite on #2. As someone who has lived in the DC area since the late 80's, I'm guessing that your parents are retired and don't drive into DC at rush hour on a daily basis. Traffic in the DC area (everywhere!) is much worse. Yes, the drive from Great Falls was never "easy," but the stretch in from the Beltway is a lot worse than it was in the 90's.

I think you're somewhat right about the loss of appeal, but I do think it is the combination of factors. In the 80's, Great Falls was where law firm partners could build a huge house on a big lot and feel like they were living in the country with a slightly longer commute. I also think a lot of the housing stock is just out of style. People may still like land, but the gratuitously large house with cathedral ceilings/spiral staircase etc is just dated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My post is a few years late, but I've just finished reading all 27 pages of this thread, which I found informative and entertaining. I currently live in Palo Alto, CA but grew up in Great Falls in the 80s/90s and am here for the week visiting my family. Our home is located in one of the neighborhoods with homes in the $4mm+ and 5+ acre range not far from Great Falls Center. I was surprised at all of the change in Great Falls, which is how I stumbled onto this site. I'd like to address a few points that have been frequently raised and would love your thoughts:

1. Declining median home prices:

Could this be a direct result of the mere fact that Great Falls now has more affordable Toll Brothers-inspired model homes and fewer custom homes on large properties, which have now become subdivisions undifferentiated from those in neighboring towns like Reston? One would expect median home prices to decline if more low-quality homes have been built atop (formerly) more expensive properties.

Could this be driven by the possibility that Great Falls today offers fewer amenities that cater to the wealthy (horse trails and barns, open land, high-quality social/golf clubs, easy access to private schools)? It was my impression that many of the Great Falls families in the 80s and 90s lived here to be close to their horses and to enjoy their open space. Sending children to St. Albans/Sidwell/Potomac School from Great Falls was not uncommon.

Could this be an indirect result of speculative home builders creating abominable monstrosities that baffle the mind and which few would appreciate? It's possible that these eye sores are indeed a plague on all our houses as they detract significantly from the former aesthetic value of Great Falls. Some claim that these homes appeal to a different, sometimes foreign, sense of style, but I'm not convinced. I've traveled the world and have never seen the same whimsical placement and/or omission of windows, roof lines, materials, and colors.

Examples below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RJUndCLZzM
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/mclean/1383-woodside-dr-mclean-va-22102--2020424719
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/mclean/938-peacock-station-rd-mclean-va-22102--1150804225
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/great-falls/800-hortense-pl-great-falls-va-22066--2020401357

2. Traffic makes a DC commute infeasible

Based on comments from my parents, the commute into DC is only slightly worse today than it was in the 90s, but as an earlier poster mentioned, the drive is no longer "worth" it. Is it possible that the commute time isn't much worse, but the quality of the commute is? I have childhood memories of parents saying that they actually enjoyed the scenic drive on Georgetown Pike or Old Dominion Drive, with the many open meadows to gaze at. Even in traffic, it was apparently enjoyable to stare into an adjacent meadow and admire the horses or deer. Studies have shown that merely looking into nature from a window has noticeable health benefits, but Great Falls today might offer the opposite: imposing out-of-place souped-up model homes with "glamorous" gates and fountains in front. In the 90s, consensus thought was that McMansions would increase median home values and the appeal of Great Falls, but I wonder now if they are failing to hold value and have irreparably detracted from Great Falls' former charm.

3. Is there anything we can do through the Great Falls Citizens Association or otherwise to reverse some of these possible trends?

We are probably around the same age and there's been a big generational change in preferences for housing. People our age and younger are increasingly turning away from both long commutes and very large houses. The bigger houses in GF have lost much of the luster and then add on that high earning households just don't want to spend 1+ hour in commuting to / from work. DC itself has changed tremendously since the 1980s, making it much easier to live in the district. Back in those days everyone was fleeing the district because of crime and schools. But it's the reverse today. In the 1980s your law firm partner gunned for the big new house in Potomac or Great Falls but today the partners want a house that's under 30 minutes from work.

I'd actually argue that GF and Potomac are being sustained largely by immigrants and their offspring, who still idealize that large psuedo mansion style and see it as a sign that they've "arrived." Many of them don't work in the district and have no need to suffer through the long commutes. Without them prices would probably be even lower.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:McLean (22101) is the way to go as far as house price appreciation is concerned.

But Great Falls is much, much nicer OP.

We are a family that has the money to live there and are part of the demographic that finds GF unlivable. Both DH and I are very active. We like to bike and run. There are no sidewalks, no bike trails, no nothing. You are stuck in your home and have to drive to enjoy the outdoors. We have kids and what a shitty way to grow up.

[Anonymous]

Potomac is not full of Immigrants. You do realize "poorer" people work in the "district". There are several Billionaires who live in Potomac, none work in DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My post is a few years late, but I've just finished reading all 27 pages of this thread, which I found informative and entertaining. I currently live in Palo Alto, CA but grew up in Great Falls in the 80s/90s and am here for the week visiting my family. Our home is located in one of the neighborhoods with homes in the $4mm+ and 5+ acre range not far from Great Falls Center. I was surprised at all of the change in Great Falls, which is how I stumbled onto this site. I'd like to address a few points that have been frequently raised and would love your thoughts:

1. Declining median home prices:

Could this be a direct result of the mere fact that Great Falls now has more affordable Toll Brothers-inspired model homes and fewer custom homes on large properties, which have now become subdivisions undifferentiated from those in neighboring towns like Reston? One would expect median home prices to decline if more low-quality homes have been built atop (formerly) more expensive properties.

Could this be driven by the possibility that Great Falls today offers fewer amenities that cater to the wealthy (horse trails and barns, open land, high-quality social/golf clubs, easy access to private schools)? It was my impression that many of the Great Falls families in the 80s and 90s lived here to be close to their horses and to enjoy their open space. Sending children to St. Albans/Sidwell/Potomac School from Great Falls was not uncommon.

Could this be an indirect result of speculative home builders creating abominable monstrosities that baffle the mind and which few would appreciate? It's possible that these eye sores are indeed a plague on all our houses as they detract significantly from the former aesthetic value of Great Falls. Some claim that these homes appeal to a different, sometimes foreign, sense of style, but I'm not convinced. I've traveled the world and have never seen the same whimsical placement and/or omission of windows, roof lines, materials, and colors.

Examples below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RJUndCLZzM
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/mclean/1383-woodside-dr-mclean-va-22102--2020424719
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/mclean/938-peacock-station-rd-mclean-va-22102--1150804225
https://www.trulia.com/p/va/great-falls/800-hortense-pl-great-falls-va-22066--2020401357

2. Traffic makes a DC commute infeasible

Based on comments from my parents, the commute into DC is only slightly worse today than it was in the 90s, but as an earlier poster mentioned, the drive is no longer "worth" it. Is it possible that the commute time isn't much worse, but the quality of the commute is? I have childhood memories of parents saying that they actually enjoyed the scenic drive on Georgetown Pike or Old Dominion Drive, with the many open meadows to gaze at. Even in traffic, it was apparently enjoyable to stare into an adjacent meadow and admire the horses or deer. Studies have shown that merely looking into nature from a window has noticeable health benefits, but Great Falls today might offer the opposite: imposing out-of-place souped-up model homes with "glamorous" gates and fountains in front. In the 90s, consensus thought was that McMansions would increase median home values and the appeal of Great Falls, but I wonder now if they are failing to hold value and have irreparably detracted from Great Falls' former charm.

3. Is there anything we can do through the Great Falls Citizens Association or otherwise to reverse some of these possible trends?

We are probably around the same age and there's been a big generational change in preferences for housing. WHITE People our age and younger are increasingly turning away from both long commutes and very large houses. The bigger houses in GF have lost much of the luster and then add on that high earning households just don't want to spend 1+ hour in commuting to / from work. DC itself has changed tremendously since the 1980s, making it much easier to live in the district. Back in those days everyone was fleeing the district because of crime and schools. But it's the reverse today. In the 1980s your law firm partner gunned for the big new house in Potomac or Great Falls but today the partners want a house that's under 45 minutes from work.

I'd actually argue that GF and Potomac are being sustained largely by immigrants and their offspring, who needn't be acknowledged as "people" by snobs like us, but who still idealize that large psuedo mansion style and see it as a sign that they've "arrived." Many of them don't work in the district and have no need to suffer through the long commutes. Without them prices would probably be even lower.

Fixed that for you.

[Anonymous]

I'm not sure why people are upset when someone points out there are many successful people of recent immigrant backgrounds who are buying the higher end properties in Potomac and Great Falls. A big part of the market is this demographics. It's real. It's not nasty or racist to point this out. Because there are many of them. They like these houses and want these houses and no doubt think others are silly to pay fortunes for crappy shitshacks in Arlington or Bethesda or NW DC.