Does anyone else believe the impending financial crash will be bigger than 2008-2009?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Financial planner strongly suggested we move from having 1% of our retirement invested overseas, to 22%. Now.

That is just dumb. No reason to think any market will outperform US in a down market. In an up market, sure but not a down market.

While that's probably true in terms of the market, if the dollar loses value the international markets will see better returns in dollar-denominated performance.

[Anonymous]

All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.


The market is currently irrational, acting as if everything is fine, while every indicator of a bubble is flashing red warning signs. I think people are trading on hype right now, there’s still
Money to be made short term but the new and revised (adp) job numbers (cause we no longer can get reliable BLS data) show significant slow down and the tariffs are having a growing an effect. Most likely recession and possibly a steep downward turn in market. Meanwhile we are bailing out argentina to bail out Rob Citrine and pay to play politics are the name of the game. Fascist corruption can continue to generate wealth for a while for some (authoritarian capitalism is a thing) but always at the greater expense and foundational stability is compromised.

+1 Read the history of Argentina for the last 100 years. Argentina was once stable, but has been dealing with fascist corruption for 100 years now and it has definitely been at the expense of foundational stability. Big mistake for Trump to lend them money. We won't get it back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The end of this market bubble will come when SCOTUS declares Trump's "emergency" tariffs are constitutional. All the importers and retailers have been surviving by selling their claims for tariff refunds in the event they are struck down. Wall Street has been buying up these claims for 20 cents on the dollar but we all know what happens when these refund claims become worthless.

This. And, unfortunately the writing is on the wall that they'll side with Trump because they suck. Will probably sell stock the day before they release their opinion.

2025 and 2026 look strong for US market returns. We are about to go on a run. Not saying it will not correct but likely not soon. The tariffs are going to turn out to be a non issue.

As I understand it, corporations are enjoying rising profits and are taking steps to cut down on major expenses (wages, taxes).
The stock market will continue to rise.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/apr/whats-driving-surge-us-corporate-profits

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.

The market is currently irrational, acting as if everything is fine, while every indicator of a bubble is flashing red warning signs. I think people are trading on hype right now, there’s still
Money to be made short term but the new and revised (adp) job numbers (cause we no longer can get reliable BLS data) show significant slow down and the tariffs are having a growing an effect. Most likely recession and possibly a steep downward turn in market. Meanwhile we are bailing out argentina to bail out Rob Citrine and pay to play politics are the name of the game. Fascist corruption can continue to generate wealth for a while for some (authoritarian capitalism is a thing) but always at the greater expense and foundational stability is compromised.

I would flip around what you said --- almost every indicator is not flashing red. Almost everything looks good. Slowing but looking good. Politics is shading people's views. And politics for the most part does not matter. Yes slowing but not really retreating either. Not stagnant. Tariffs have not had an impact yet almost at all. In my view they will not going forward. They are stupid, will not work, but are mostly harmless. We are bailing out Argentina to stable a region that may go bad -- not politics -- good policy. The rest of your comments show how you are impacted by the politics. Things are not booming now but they are fine and healthy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.

The market is currently irrational, acting as if everything is fine, while every indicator of a bubble is flashing red warning signs. I think people are trading on hype right now, there’s still
Money to be made short term but the new and revised (adp) job numbers (cause we no longer can get reliable BLS data) show significant slow down and the tariffs are having a growing an effect. Most likely recession and possibly a steep downward turn in market. Meanwhile we are bailing out argentina to bail out Rob Citrine and pay to play politics are the name of the game. Fascist corruption can continue to generate wealth for a while for some (authoritarian capitalism is a thing) but always at the greater expense and foundational stability is compromised.

I would flip around what you said --- almost every indicator is not flashing red. Almost everything looks good. Slowing but looking good. Politics is shading people's views. And politics for the most part does not matter. Yes slowing but not really retreating either. Not stagnant. Tariffs have not had an impact yet almost at all. In my view they will not going forward. They are stupid, will not work, but are mostly harmless. We are bailing out Argentina to stable a region that may go bad -- not politics -- good policy. The rest of your comments show how you are impacted by the politics. Things are not booming now but they are fine and healthy.

What news sources are you reading to give you that perspective? Do you think employment numbers are good? How about inflation? How about the value of the dollar? Because most “mainsteam media”, which I am concerned you would denigrate, are underscoring that red lights are flashing. China isn’t buying soy beans. Auto loans are in bad shape. This isn’t about “politics clouding heads”, this is about reality. The stock market is on essentially a tech meth high at the moment. Once this data center/ai/hpc thing bursts in value and tariffs are felt more, we are looking at hard times.

I am trading companies like BITF, coreweave, lam research, intel as well. I am wrapped up in that bubble. But I am also not doing that for the long term in my taxable account. I am swing trading and stashing most profits in gold bullion ETFs waiting for the inevitable crash. I think you are secretly focused on politics and operate in a world where the coverage you’re reading is in fact biased in a bullish way. I think you’re insulated from actual conditions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

The stock market is on essentially a tech meth high at the moment. Once this data center/ai/hpc thing bursts in value and tariffs are felt more, we are looking at hard times.

Dear god that is an amazing line- Tech Meth High. Love it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.

I actually stopped investing when Trump won and stacked up cash, and used that to buy in in April (managed to hit the day before the very bottom, which is timed enough for me). I haven't bought outside of retirement accounts since, and am piling up cash again (including dividends) so that I can buy in again when this bubble bursts.

But you keep DCA'ing into this meltup. Whatever makes you feel safe is probably the right investment strategy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The stock market is on essentially a tech meth high at the moment. Once this data center/ai/hpc thing bursts in value and tariffs are felt more, we are looking at hard times.

Dear god that is an amazing line- Tech Meth High. Love it.

And true to a limited extent but not true overall.

data center and AI are not the same and should not be lumped together. Unlikely to burst as you say anytime soon. tariffs are not being felt in the economy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.

The market is currently irrational, acting as if everything is fine, while every indicator of a bubble is flashing red warning signs. I think people are trading on hype right now, there’s still
Money to be made short term but the new and revised (adp) job numbers (cause we no longer can get reliable BLS data) show significant slow down and the tariffs are having a growing an effect. Most likely recession and possibly a steep downward turn in market. Meanwhile we are bailing out argentina to bail out Rob Citrine and pay to play politics are the name of the game. Fascist corruption can continue to generate wealth for a while for some (authoritarian capitalism is a thing) but always at the greater expense and foundational stability is compromised.

I would flip around what you said --- almost every indicator is not flashing red. Almost everything looks good. Slowing but looking good. Politics is shading people's views. And politics for the most part does not matter. Yes slowing but not really retreating either. Not stagnant. Tariffs have not had an impact yet almost at all. In my view they will not going forward. They are stupid, will not work, but are mostly harmless. We are bailing out Argentina to stable a region that may go bad -- not politics -- good policy. The rest of your comments show how you are impacted by the politics. Things are not booming now but they are fine and healthy.

What news sources are you reading to give you that perspective? Do you think employment numbers are good? How about inflation? How about the value of the dollar? Because most “mainsteam media”, which I am concerned you would denigrate, are underscoring that red lights are flashing. China isn’t buying soy beans. Auto loans are in bad shape. This isn’t about “politics clouding heads”, this is about reality. The stock market is on essentially a tech meth high at the moment. Once this data center/ai/hpc thing bursts in value and tariffs are felt more, we are looking at hard times.

I am trading companies like BITF, coreweave, lam research, intel as well. I am wrapped up in that bubble. But I am also not doing that for the long term in my taxable account. I am swing trading and stashing most profits in gold bullion ETFs waiting for the inevitable crash. I think you are secretly focused on politics and operate in a world where the coverage you’re reading is in fact biased in a bullish way. I think you’re insulated from actual conditions.

Employment numbers are steady after years of explosive growth. Inflation is slightly and only slightly high but low compared to the last several years. Dollar is doing what it does. Not an issue to focus on at the moment. Weak dollar can have benefits. Who cares about soy beans except a few farmers. That is not a major part of our economy. Auto loans are not in bad shape -- There is some pull back but again long before a flashing red light. I only read and watch mainstream media. But if you actually read what is there it is flash over substance. Substance is still solid. I am a democrat and oppose the president but the facts are the facts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The stock market is on essentially a tech meth high at the moment. Once this data center/ai/hpc thing bursts in value and tariffs are felt more, we are looking at hard times.

Dear god that is an amazing line- Tech Meth High. Love it.

And true to a limited extent but not true overall.

data center and AI are not the same and should not be lumped together. Unlikely to burst as you say anytime soon. tariffs are not being felt in the economy.

What’s that based on? Your subjective opinion? You know it usually just takes a tipping point in overall consumer confidence for market panic to set it in and the economy to act on animal spirits and just cause a mass market sell off?

Also, “Tariffs haven’t been felt in the economy?” What? You are so ensconced in the right wing news ecosphere that you can’t picture anything but up.

Tell that to the US farmers who can’t sell any soy beans because we’ve lost that entire market share to Brazil and argen fking Tina (who we just bailed out for $20bn because Milei crashed their economy), and those supply chains aren’t coming back. Talk to fames without workers. Talk to small businesses failing because they can’t import what they need to sell.

All this economic pain is in the mail. Stocks are going up because the dollar is falling. We have to cut rates now because things are getting really fked up. I’m sorry Newsmax is telling you all is okay. Why is gold at record highs? Does that seem fine to you? It’s all going to burst and you will feel like a fool when you’re portfolio of VTSAX or all domestic stocks loses 50% and you need that money soon for your retirement.

I mean truthfully you’ll blame it on other things anyway (“rates weren’t cut soon enough!!!” Etc) rather than the direct causes which are obvious to people who can reason and aren’t lemmings.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.

I actually stopped investing when Trump won and stacked up cash, and used that to buy in in April (managed to hit the day before the very bottom, which is timed enough for me). I haven't bought outside of retirement accounts since, and am piling up cash again (including dividends) so that I can buy in again when this bubble bursts.

But you keep DCA'ing into this meltup. Whatever makes you feel safe is probably the right investment strategy.

What an amazing coincidence, eh? Timing it so perfectly and having the confidence to jump back into the sharply dropping market after big scary man made his big scary announcement. Forgive me for being a bit skeptical.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.

The market is currently irrational, acting as if everything is fine, while every indicator of a bubble is flashing red warning signs. I think people are trading on hype right now, there’s still
Money to be made short term but the new and revised (adp) job numbers (cause we no longer can get reliable BLS data) show significant slow down and the tariffs are having a growing an effect. Most likely recession and possibly a steep downward turn in market. Meanwhile we are bailing out argentina to bail out Rob Citrine and pay to play politics are the name of the game. Fascist corruption can continue to generate wealth for a while for some (authoritarian capitalism is a thing) but always at the greater expense and foundational stability is compromised.

I would flip around what you said --- almost every indicator is not flashing red. Almost everything looks good. Slowing but looking good. Politics is shading people's views. And politics for the most part does not matter. Yes slowing but not really retreating either. Not stagnant. Tariffs have not had an impact yet almost at all. In my view they will not going forward. They are stupid, will not work, but are mostly harmless. We are bailing out Argentina to stable a region that may go bad -- not politics -- good policy. The rest of your comments show how you are impacted by the politics. Things are not booming now but they are fine and healthy.

What news sources are you reading to give you that perspective? Do you think employment numbers are good? How about inflation? How about the value of the dollar? Because most “mainsteam media”, which I am concerned you would denigrate, are underscoring that red lights are flashing. China isn’t buying soy beans. Auto loans are in bad shape. This isn’t about “politics clouding heads”, this is about reality. The stock market is on essentially a tech meth high at the moment. Once this data center/ai/hpc thing bursts in value and tariffs are felt more, we are looking at hard times.

I am trading companies like BITF, coreweave, lam research, intel as well. I am wrapped up in that bubble. But I am also not doing that for the long term in my taxable account. I am swing trading and stashing most profits in gold bullion ETFs waiting for the inevitable crash. I think you are secretly focused on politics and operate in a world where the coverage you’re reading is in fact biased in a bullish way. I think you’re insulated from actual conditions.

Employment numbers are steady after years of explosive growth. Inflation is slightly and only slightly high but low compared to the last several years. Dollar is doing what it does. Not an issue to focus on at the moment. Weak dollar can have benefits. Who cares about soy beans except a few farmers. That is not a major part of our economy. Auto loans are not in bad shape -- There is some pull back but again long before a flashing red light. I only read and watch mainstream media. But if you actually read what is there it is flash over substance. Substance is still solid. I am a democrat and oppose the president but the facts are the facts.

This is such cope. That or you just don’t read enough. Employment numbers were revised down to -3,000 from 54,000 last month. And they’ll keep getting revised down each quarter.

You should also be aware of this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-27/trump-s-bls-firing-economy-spurs-investment-by-private-data-firms?embedded-checkout=true

I’m trying to help you buddy. You have this rosy outlook not supported by any real facts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The stock market is on essentially a tech meth high at the moment. Once this data center/ai/hpc thing bursts in value and tariffs are felt more, we are looking at hard times.

Dear god that is an amazing line- Tech Meth High. Love it.

And true to a limited extent but not true overall.

data center and AI are not the same and should not be lumped together. Unlikely to burst as you say anytime soon. tariffs are not being felt in the economy.

I really want to know what you are smoking. Yes of course they aren't exactly the same, there are plenty of data center needs for general web usage, etc. But the recent massive surge in data center construction is absolutely tied to the incredible computing requirements of the LLM systems. If that slows down, the demand for so many new data centers absolutely slows down.

When the LLM bubble bursts, it will be uneven, of course. Nvidia will take a massive hit, but they are gonna do fine in the long run and still worth trillions. Oracle will take a huge hit because of how much their recent growth has come because of LLM demand. Microsoft has funded a ton of OpenAI and they will take a hit also, but of course they have plenty of real revenue, in the grand scheme they will be fine. Google/Facebook/Amazon have significant LLM investments but still of course lots of real revenue.

Most of the other big losses will be smaller companies that aren't a huge part of people's portfolios, or are privately held. So whatever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.

I actually stopped investing when Trump won and stacked up cash, and used that to buy in in April (managed to hit the day before the very bottom, which is timed enough for me). I haven't bought outside of retirement accounts since, and am piling up cash again (including dividends) so that I can buy in again when this bubble bursts.

But you keep DCA'ing into this meltup. Whatever makes you feel safe is probably the right investment strategy.

What an amazing coincidence, eh? Timing it so perfectly and having the confidence to jump back into the sharply dropping market after big scary man made his big scary announcement. Forgive me for being a bit skeptical.

It was good timing and prudent. At least he is free minded enough to step outside the cult and see the economic harm being done. Can’t say the same for you. But yeah don’t hedge at all. Everything is great. Jobs are great. Farmers are happy and definitely not all about to get bailouts. Everything is fking great. Gold going up 590% this year is not a sign of instability at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.

I actually stopped investing when Trump won and stacked up cash, and used that to buy in in April (managed to hit the day before the very bottom, which is timed enough for me). I haven't bought outside of retirement accounts since, and am piling up cash again (including dividends) so that I can buy in again when this bubble bursts.

But you keep DCA'ing into this meltup. Whatever makes you feel safe is probably the right investment strategy.

What an amazing coincidence, eh? Timing it so perfectly and having the confidence to jump back into the sharply dropping market after big scary man made his big scary announcement. Forgive me for being a bit skeptical.

You can be as skeptical as you need to be, it doesn't change my reality. My buy-in point was to put in 1/3 of my cash when we fell 20% down from the top (and all of the remaining cash if it fell another 10%, which it didn't), and that's when I pulled the trigger. I haven't decided if I will move the first purchase trigger to be at 25 or 30% off the top this time (I feel like prices are even sillier right now so I should adjust, but maybe I just stick with the initial plan and the second 10% drop will activate this time).