2022 election results thread

[Anonymous]

Is this right? Assuming Dems keep Arizona, Dems would need to hand on to two out of these three to hold the house- WI, NV, GA-right? I feel like WI and NV are going to go to the R’s though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lauren Boebert is going down!

If this happens, it’s because of COVID related moves. The area Boebert represents is filled with ski resorts and areas of nature that people moved to from the city. Her district got bluer.

Same thing is happening in Florida - so many conservatives from the Northeast and even DC area moved down. It’s now a red state. Ironically, I think this may have made places like PA, WI, and MI less conservative.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is this right? Assuming Dems keep Arizona, Dems would need to hand on to two out of these three to hold the house- WI, NV, GA-right? I feel like WI and NV are going to go to the R’s though.

To hold the Senate- sorry. Late night.

[Anonymous]

Could UT possibly be in play?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is this right? Assuming Dems keep Arizona, Dems would need to hand on to two out of these three to hold the house- WI, NV, GA-right? I feel like WI and NV are going to go to the R’s though.

Yep. Without them the GOP is +2 even with a win of PA and loss of GA for Dems. If Dems get GA and PA, GOP is still +1.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Could UT possibly be in play?

No

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:VA-2 flips from D to R.

Due to redistricting. So far, that’s the only way Rs are winning.

The NY court of appeals decision on gerrymandering may end up deciding control of the house. R states allowed gerrymandering and D states did not.

California and Illinois have a lot of D gerrymandering.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Could UT possibly be in play?

It’s very interesting to me that Mitt Romney never endorsed Mike Lee in this race. I mean, the Republican should win Utah, but Evan McMullin is going to make it interesting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is this right? Assuming Dems keep Arizona, Dems would need to hand on to two out of these three to hold the house- WI, NV, GA-right? I feel like WI and NV are going to go to the R’s though.

Yep. Without them the GOP is +2 even with a win of PA and loss of GA for Dems. If Dems get GA and PA, GOP is still +1.

I stole this from the other thread.

NPR currently has 45D/2I - 46R (48 expected as AK and UT have not called)

Of the 5 remaining competitive contests that will decide the Majority:

AZ - Kelly 57.8% - Master 40% (48% in)
GA - Warnock 49% - Walker 49% (89% in) (3.6M votes in, Warnock ahead by 335 votes)
NV - No results
PA - Fetterman 49.3% - Oz 48.3% (81% in)
WI - Barnes 48.4% - Johnson 51.6% (84% in)

If the numbers stay the same, we'll be 49D/I - 49R with NV and GA outstanding.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:VA-2 flips from D to R.

Due to redistricting. So far, that’s the only way Rs are winning.

The NY court of appeals decision on gerrymandering may end up deciding control of the house. R states allowed gerrymandering and D states did not.

California and Illinois have a lot of D gerrymandering.

You are full of it. California’s districts are decided by an independent commission.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is this right? Assuming Dems keep Arizona, Dems would need to hand on to two out of these three to hold the house- WI, NV, GA-right? I feel like WI and NV are going to go to the R’s though.

Yep. Without them the GOP is +2 even with a win of PA and loss of GA for Dems. If Dems get GA and PA, GOP is still +1.

I stole this from the other thread.

NPR currently has 45D/2I - 46R (48 expected as AK and UT have not called)

Of the 5 remaining competitive contests that will decide the Majority:

AZ - Kelly 57.8% - Master 40% (48% in)
GA - Warnock 49% - Walker 49% (89% in) (3.6M votes in, Warnock ahead by 335 votes)
NV - No results
PA - Fetterman 49.3% - Oz 48.3% (81% in)
WI - Barnes 48.4% - Johnson 51.6% (84% in)

If the numbers stay the same, we'll be 49D/I - 49R with NV and GA outstanding.

Thanks. That was my post. I saw this here and thought I had opened the wrong thread because I didn't remember posting it here.

[Anonymous]

Thoughts on whether a runoff favors Warnock or Walker? Personally I think it will favor Warnock because The race truly will determine the outcome of abortion in America, and any one who didn’t bother to vote in Georgia will be hitting the polls.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is this right? Assuming Dems keep Arizona, Dems would need to hand on to two out of these three to hold the house- WI, NV, GA-right? I feel like WI and NV are going to go to the R’s though.

Yep. Without them the GOP is +2 even with a win of PA and loss of GA for Dems. If Dems get GA and PA, GOP is still +1.

I stole this from the other thread.

NPR currently has 45D/2I - 46R (48 expected as AK and UT have not called)

Of the 5 remaining competitive contests that will decide the Majority:

AZ - Kelly 57.8% - Master 40% (48% in)
GA - Warnock 49% - Walker 49% (89% in) (3.6M votes in, Warnock ahead by 335 votes)
NV - No results
PA - Fetterman 49.3% - Oz 48.3% (81% in)
WI - Barnes 48.4% - Johnson 51.6% (84% in)

If the numbers stay the same, we'll be 49D/I - 49R with NV and GA outstanding.

Thanks. That was my post. I saw this here and thought I had opened the wrong thread because I didn't remember posting it here.

Thank you for the breakdown! Now I can stop counting to 50 every 15 minutes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thoughts on whether a runoff favors Warnock or Walker? Personally I think it will favor Warnock because The race truly will determine the outcome of abortion in America, and any one who didn’t bother to vote in Georgia will be hitting the polls.

2020 again. Somehow Georgia has become the savior of America.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thoughts on whether a runoff favors Warnock or Walker? Personally I think it will favor Warnock because The race truly will determine the outcome of abortion in America, and any one who didn’t bother to vote in Georgia will be hitting the polls.

2020 again. Somehow Georgia has become the savior of America.

Run-off favors the Dems in terms of volunteering and turn out. Plus, we will probably find out about another Walker abortion in the intervening period.