TJ drop outs under the new admission standards

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would expect the dropout % to increase merely because of the increased logistics and life complexities required for a student who has less support at home.

This. And because there are kids who were offered a chance to try something they had not been exposed to before. Some are going to be overwhelmed and will return to what is more comfortable. Others will put in the work and do fine. Some will thrive and grow in ways we never would have predicted.

Actually, if the students have support at home are the ones to pull out early. Parents want the students keep good GPA for college applications. The ones have no support are struggling in TJ until the school push them out. Now of cause the school want to keep all of them. Nobody knows how those students are, enjoy or suffering.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was honestly expecting (and fearing) a much higher number of dropouts, especially at the change of semesters.

Props to these kids for sticking it out.

Shame on anyone who makes a big deal out of ten kids in one class. It's a small sample size no matter how you slice it.

Each drop-out is a big decision. You shouldn't brush off even one, let alone ten. Especially when all the other high schools are increasing students by the boatload in the same period. Each has a story. Hopefully, they manage to transition well to wherever they went.

Small sample size? Any statistician will say that 21-22 is an outlier, at least up to February.

It is a small enough number that it is explainable more by individual stories than by broad narratives.

People are trying to use them to push an agenda and it’s gross and unjustified.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

You're talking about less than 2% of the class. It's not as if there is some great migration happening.

By the way, these kids are being treated like crap by a lot of parents with an agenda, and the guy who was the PTSA President at the beginning of the year (and has since resigned in disgrace) was extremely outspoken about his opinion that their class was illegitimate in an effort to get his half-Asian 8th grade kid a better shot at the Class of 2026 - he's one of the named complainants in the lawsuit.

HJ & AN should be ashamed of how they treated TJ students for their agendas.

Especially how they used URM kids to further their racist agenda. The court has spoken...

DP. You clearly don't know who HJ and AN are.

They are opportunists who play the race card whenever possible to further their racist agenda.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anyone know?

A family friend (who is the parent of a TJ graduate) told me many of the students admitted under the revised standards subsequently dropped out of TJ and returned to their base HS. She quoted a number.

Anyone know for certain?

That's odd my TJ kid claims the rate is way down this year.

My kid says the number is significantly higher this year.

We heard this also.

Same.

[Anonymous]

A lot of kids don't drop out because of grades. If they move to the base school, they would be placed according to the grades they already got at TJ. That was the reason my DS is still at TJ. We just have one more year of this craziness and he can't wait to have a good night's sleep.

[Anonymous]

The class of 25 will take the PSAT this fall. Will the class PSAT average be published? And is an average available for previous years?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The class of 25 will take the PSAT this fall. Will the class PSAT average be published? And is an average available for previous years?

See how many NMSFs there are?

Class of 2022 had 144 (almost 1/3rd).

[Anonymous]

The NMSF determination will happen only in junior year so that is a year away. But sophomore get a shot at the PSAT as well.

If those scores (average scores of course not individual ones) are made public and compared with equivalent sophomore PSAT scores - there will be a directional view on how this class is performing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A lot of kids don't drop out because of grades. If they move to the base school, they would be placed according to the grades they already got at TJ. That was the reason my DS is still at TJ. We just have one more year of this craziness and he can't wait to have a good night's sleep.

+ 10000

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A lot of kids don't drop out because of grades. If they move to the base school, they would be placed according to the grades they already got at TJ. That was the reason my DS is still at TJ. We just have one more year of this craziness and he can't wait to have a good night's sleep.

?
That doesn’t make sense. My base school is opt in for honors and AP/IB classes. Math would carry over I imagine. If my TJ kid is miserable we will transfer back to the base school and I think the biggest loss will be not having the social bonding freshman year. But if she said no to the offer she’s never have another chance to give it a try and see if she liked it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anyone know?

A family friend (who is the parent of a TJ graduate) told me many of the students admitted under the revised standards subsequently dropped out of TJ and returned to their base HS. She quoted a number.

Anyone know for certain?

That's odd my TJ kid claims the rate is way down this year.

My kid says the number is significantly higher this year.

We heard this also.

I read it was way down. The actual stats for posted in a different thread a few days ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A lot of kids don't drop out because of grades. If they move to the base school, they would be placed according to the grades they already got at TJ. That was the reason my DS is still at TJ. We just have one more year of this craziness and he can't wait to have a good night's sleep.

?
That doesn’t make sense. My base school is opt in for honors and AP/IB classes. Math would carry over I imagine. If my TJ kid is miserable we will transfer back to the base school and I think the biggest loss will be not having the social bonding freshman year. But if she said no to the offer she’s never have another chance to give it a try and see if she liked it.

Once you finish a year with bad grades, it's not an easy decision to move to base school. If you move, you will move with your bad grades. Many parents prefer staying back at TJ, that way they at least have the TJ brand. We are in the same boat. DC has gotten a majority of B's with few C's in the last three years. His WGPA is below 4. At this point, we are happy that he is not failing. He may not go to Harvard but he will be happy where ever he goes. At least he will not be at TJ!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The NMSF determination will happen only in junior year so that is a year away. But sophomore get a shot at the PSAT as well.

If those scores (average scores of course not individual ones) are made public and compared with equivalent sophomore PSAT scores - there will be a directional view on how this class is performing.

If the average scores are good, pro-reform people will say, see I told you the standardized test shows that they are inertly smart !! If the average scores are bad, they will say, see I told you the standardized test fails to show that they are inertly smart!! Either way, the pro-reform people will say that they are inertly smart!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The NMSF determination will happen only in junior year so that is a year away. But sophomore get a shot at the PSAT as well.

If those scores (average scores of course not individual ones) are made public and compared with equivalent sophomore PSAT scores - there will be a directional view on how this class is performing.

If the average scores are good, pro-reform people will say, see I told you the standardized test shows that they are inertly smart !! If the average scores are bad, they will say, see I told you the standardized test fails to show that they are inertly smart!! Either way, the pro-reform people will say that they are inertly smart!!

Exactly. They'll disparage the test by saying only prepped robots do well on those things, but their child is naturally brilliant and full of personality. Not a boring prepped robot...and colleges agree with me because they don't require the tests anymore (except MIT, which realized that test optional doesn't yield the type of student who can hack it at MIT)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would expect the dropout % to increase merely because of the increased logistics and life complexities required for a student who has less support at home.

This. And because there are kids who were offered a chance to try something they had not been exposed to before. Some are going to be overwhelmed and will return to what is more comfortable. Others will put in the work and do fine. Some will thrive and grow in ways we never would have predicted.

Actually, if the students have support at home are the ones to pull out early. Parents want the students keep good GPA for college applications. The ones have no support are struggling in TJ until the school push them out. Now of cause the school want to keep all of them. Nobody knows how those students are, enjoy or suffering.

I find this hard to believe and can't help but wonder if this is just some narrative you wish to embrace or can you back this up with credible evidence?