TJ drop outs under the new admission standards

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03/15/2022 20:18

Subject: TJ drop outs under the new admission standards

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Anonymous wrote:https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:107:4456633545701:105:NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

The data has been updated for February on a per-class basis - February would have been expected to be a significant cut-off point as it carries with it the change of semesters.

While the school as a whole is down 16 students since the beginning of the year, only ten of those students are freshmen. Four sophomores and two juniors have also left.

The ten freshmen out of the 541 that opened the year constitute about 1.8% of the class. We know from context on other pages that none of those students are Black.

I am posting this again -

Up to February of each year, here are the drop-off numbers for 9th graders at TJ:

21-22: 10!
20-21: 1
19-20: 1
18-19: 6

This is statistically speaking, significantly different from past years. It doesn't matter if any of them were Black or not. The fact is students are dropping out so much more than in the past. There is something off with the new admissions policy if students are leaving like this.

No necessarily. There are other possible factors - pandemic, fewer “declines”.

And it’s not unprecedented. Back in 17-19, there were a ton of drop outs during the school year and summer (48 net loss).

Up to February,

21-22: number of 9th graders increased 410 in total division. COVID did not affect enrollment.
20-21: number of 9th graders decreased 20 in total division. Here you can see COVID impact.
18-19: number of 9th graders only increased 85 in total division. So the high drop out rate in 21-22 is even more alarming at TJ given so many students came into the FCPS system at large in 21-22.

Drop outs from learning loss.

Or other causes - like whatever happened in 17-19.

I am giving you data while you are asserting some narrative. The aggregate data says that whatever happened in enrollment in 18-19 or 20-21 is not what's happening in 21-22. Therefore, there is something special about TJ this year. There is a mass influx of students in FCPS in 21-22, yet TJ is showing unprecedented outflows.

Yes, there were certainly many differences this year.

Ignoring everything except admissions (and the fact that it’s happened before) certainly fits your narrative.

This narrative is also supported, not only the unprecedented drop-out rate of 9th graders (and it isn't even close to 18-19), but also the unprecedented remedial classes for 9th graders, and the unprecedented low scores in certain math competitions by 9th graders. The data is mounting as we speak. Perhaps the JV teams are doing better. Perhaps this is for the better for TJ at the end of the day. The one thing you cannot do is attribute all of this to COVID or other general factors, when the facts are so unique to TJ in contrast to the general 9th grade population at FCPS.

There is learning loss across FCPS. That plays out differently at TJ than a base school.

There were a lot fewer declines/dropouts before Sept 21. Also unusual.

And there were a lot of drop outs back in 17-19. So not unprecedented.

The aggregate data says otherwise.

Seems like you have already made up you mind regardless of data.

Assuming TJ plays out differently than a base school, learning loss should be more of a problem at other schools. The data shows a massive increase in enrollment for 9th graders across the board in FCPS. So what's up with TJ?

Before Sept. 21 is unusual, but still is part of the data.

Drop outs back in 17-19 was accompanied by smaller increase in aggregate in FCPS in general. Again, when we have massive increase in aggregate, the drop outs this year in TJ is highly unusual.

I am solely going off of data. What are you going off of? PR firm?

I'm going off all of the data - not just the bits you pick and choose.

Why would a small increase in FCPS numbers affect TJ drop out numbers?

Over 2017-2019, the 9th grade enrollment in FCPS increased by 239 students.
(19) 9th graders dropped out of TJ those two years (mid-year and summer).
(30) 10th/11th graders dropped out.

This year, the 9th grade enrollment in FCPS increased by 280 students.
TJ had an increase of 88 9th graders.
(10) 9th graders have dropped out so far.
(6) 10th/11th graders dropped out.

Students throughout FCPS faced learning loss during the pandemic. There were significantly fewer instructional hours in 19-20 and 20-21 than a typical year. Students likely realized that they didn’t quite have some important concepts down. At a base school, it’s easier to stick it out. But at TJ, it’s tougher to be “behind”. Maybe the class of 2025 was more sensitive to learning loss since there were more students from low-income families who likely didn’t have pandemic tutors.

I quote all my numbers as of February of a given year. You mix and match data at your convenience. There was definitely a great exodus at all schools (except for TJ) in 2020-2021 and this is mirrored throughout the nation. But 2021-2022 in aggregate is a different matter. The data suggests the pandemic mattered in 20-21, but the opposite (even a bounce back?) occurred in 21-22. This makes more sense.