ECNL moving to school year part 2

[Anonymous]

Real data on RAE. https://www.usyouthsoccer.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/160/2023/09/Relative-Age-Effect-in-Elite-Youth-Soccer.pdf Yes for boys, Equivocal for girls

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Its funny watching the RAE excuse person move from one excuse to another and the girls dad cut them off at every turn.

Meh, just an RAE denier who hates change. Said that they are so helicoptering their kids soccer journey.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:My kid is on an olders top team of a top 20 nationally club. She's played on the same top club/team since she was 5.

There are 5 players currently on the team now that were on the team when they were 5 years old. There's currently 4-5 trapped players (one is out hurt). My daughter is a Sept birthday. Current roster is 22

What all this means is 17 of the players weren't with the team at 5 years old. It also means that 17-18 were born Jan 1st to Sept 1st. This means 23% are trapped players but Sept-Dec is 33% of a 12 month calendar. This means that theres 10% variance that can be attributed to RAE if you believe in that kind of thing. On a BY team!

The person that keeps posting about RAE is ridiculious. They're likely a professional victim that's latched onto an excuse that can be molded into whatever that want it to be. At some point thet need to step up and stop making excuses.

I like how the professional rae victim said that the biggest kids are always Jan birthdays. This can be true but it can also be false. Not every Jan birthday will be the biggest kid. I also like how the professional rae victim said that being on the top team means getting the best coachs and resources. This is not true, theres good 1st team coaches and really poor 1st team coaches. Also on a 2nd team players will get more opportunities to play multiple positions. This is important because positions players play when they're 5 most likely wont be what they play at 16. Then they bring up the confidence thing. Some of the most confident players Ive seen stayed on the 2nd team for a long time just to build up confidence.

The professional rae victim is mostly nonsense. Yes there are a large number of Jan birthdays. But this doesn't mean if your kid isnt doing private lessons and futsal 2-3 hours a week on top of regular practice that they cant be a top player. My daughter played soccer with the boys every lunch in elementary school. I've never seen a trapped player sept-dec birthday that puts in the extra work not get noticed and opportunities. I have seen parents talk about rae when their kid got cut. As a parent you humor them but everyone knew that the issue wasnt rae.

Depends on the club. Your experience is just 1 situation. I know of an instance at a club where one of the best age groups (which went to a national tournament last year) the kids were divided up based on size when going into 11v11. That's what the coach (who's a fair/strong coach, btw) told the parents, point blank, even though the year before some of the top goal scorers were smaller and more skilled. The coach said they needed the size to compete at the higher level, period, and made the case that the smaller players could shine at level 2. That 2nd team is still pretty damn good BUT is slowly falling apart as the tournaments and opportunities are just fewer. That's just the reality. I think some are holding out because of the switch to SY to get on a top team next year, but it seems pretty clear few of them, if any, will otherwise get a shot to get to the BY version of top team at this point at this club. That's RAE at work.

You're experience is just 1 situation. (Notice how I just copied what you wrote)

11v11 is a much different game than 9v9. The field is huge and players need to be able to kick harder/farther and run longer/faster to play at that level.

I highly doubt a coach would drop down goal scorers simply for size. I do bet that parents try to make size an issue if their kid is small. I also noticed that you wrote that super amazing top team players that got dropped to the second team are now struggling and falling appart. So youre saying the coaches assessment was right. Ive seen top team players get dropped down to the second team and literally score at will. When this happened the coach that cut them and the club were begging them to play on the top team again.

It was funny to go from 9v9 to 11v11. At 9v9 the kids that could work in space rose to the top over fast kids with heavy toches but then at 11v11 it reverted back to fast kids and kids who can kick far. A few years in on 11v11 and the spaces are getting smaller. The big and fast kids thrive getting bottled up compared to the other kids that can use both feet.

This is 1000% true. Living it right now.

We had a group of futsal players before switching to 11v11. Then at 11v11 the club started benching the futsal players in favor of big and fast and direct. Now the defenders have gotten better and everyone has grown into the 11v11 field and the futsal players are starting again.

Futsal makes you slow. People need to get off the futsal crack pipe.

Players generally do at 11v11.

But the trick is the footskills remain.

Yes…because sole delays, scoops, and passes behind instead of in front are all just fantastic outdoor skills.

Futsal players can play direct and posession in field.

Field players can only play direct.

Sometimes it matters sometimes it doesnt.

Yea…you’re drinking the koolaide man. If futsal was a magic pill…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:My kid is on an olders top team of a top 20 nationally club. She's played on the same top club/team since she was 5.

There are 5 players currently on the team now that were on the team when they were 5 years old. There's currently 4-5 trapped players (one is out hurt). My daughter is a Sept birthday. Current roster is 22

What all this means is 17 of the players weren't with the team at 5 years old. It also means that 17-18 were born Jan 1st to Sept 1st. This means 23% are trapped players but Sept-Dec is 33% of a 12 month calendar. This means that theres 10% variance that can be attributed to RAE if you believe in that kind of thing. On a BY team!

The person that keeps posting about RAE is ridiculious. They're likely a professional victim that's latched onto an excuse that can be molded into whatever that want it to be. At some point thet need to step up and stop making excuses.

I like how the professional rae victim said that the biggest kids are always Jan birthdays. This can be true but it can also be false. Not every Jan birthday will be the biggest kid. I also like how the professional rae victim said that being on the top team means getting the best coachs and resources. This is not true, theres good 1st team coaches and really poor 1st team coaches. Also on a 2nd team players will get more opportunities to play multiple positions. This is important because positions players play when they're 5 most likely wont be what they play at 16. Then they bring up the confidence thing. Some of the most confident players Ive seen stayed on the 2nd team for a long time just to build up confidence.

The professional rae victim is mostly nonsense. Yes there are a large number of Jan birthdays. But this doesn't mean if your kid isnt doing private lessons and futsal 2-3 hours a week on top of regular practice that they cant be a top player. My daughter played soccer with the boys every lunch in elementary school. I've never seen a trapped player sept-dec birthday that puts in the extra work not get noticed and opportunities. I have seen parents talk about rae when their kid got cut. As a parent you humor them but everyone knew that the issue wasnt rae.

Yeah, makes sense that RAE doesn't seem to exist if you focus on girl soccer. There aren't nearly as many girls playing compared to boys and the boys are much more physical and growth differences are more stark. I haven't heard RAE used as an excuse for Q4 kids in BY but RAE will be a good excuse for kids who get demoted under SY that are Q1 and Q2 and quit the sport.

It's not an excuse. Some clubs, especially these elite ones, are solely focused on winning. Some pick size as a determining factor for boys or girls. See the other recent comment. And yes, sometimes you have several strong Sept-Dec players, even at BY, but these are the outliers, skewing the perspective of these parents. The chef's kiss, though, is these clubs are ruthless and will move these players to the appropriate age level to retain their age edge. All parents should prepare.

The REAL LIFE example that was provided said what you're trying to convince everyone of isn't true.

Actually they said it was 10% true but other than that it wasnt true.

I’m the 10% poster. You’re misunderstanding what I’m saying.

RAE is absolutely real. And it absolutely has an impact.

Just to be clear, I am not discounting experiences, I was just clarifying the actually data on RAE’s impact. 10% is a huge impact on opportunity at 9/10. I think people maybe don't realize it because they’re thinking in terms of “chance” opposed to impact.

Here is a good example of what a 10% impact looks like when measuring external data.

Pro-Agility Tests (5-10-5)
Make D1 soccer player 4.8s average
10% variance there is 5.28s average, guess what, they’re not making the team!

Jump Mat test:
D1 male: 18-20”
10% less 16.2-18”
Guess what, they’re not playing D1, maybe D2

Etc etc etc.

At older ages the impact RAE has is less. Mainly because the elite pool continues to narrow. So imagine that impact at 9, well that 10% makes the difference between top team and bottom team. Bottom team doesn’t make the ECNL squad, so they don’t go to speed school, they don’t take the privates, they don’t compete against bigger, faster kids that drive them to get faster and better. They don’t get exposed to the culture and environment to incentivize them to keep up with their peers (because their peers are at a different level). They don’t get the coaching on how to take a PK so the goalie can’t read their shot etc. etc. etc. it’s called accumulated advantage for a reason.

You invent the 10% thing and then assume it doesn't change. Not really a basis for analysis.

Nope. Not invented.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Real data on RAE. https://www.usyouthsoccer.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/160/2023/09/Relative-Age-Effect-in-Elite-Youth-Soccer.pdf Yes for boys, Equivocal for girls

This data is well more than a decade old.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Real data on RAE. https://www.usyouthsoccer.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/160/2023/09/Relative-Age-Effect-in-Elite-Youth-Soccer.pdf Yes for boys, Equivocal for girls

Wow this is really good. Its also exactly dead on my experience with a high level Sept birthday girl in BY.

Athlete Girls go through puberty at a younger age than boys and get less of a body change (than boys do) when it happens.

One interesting thing the link doesn't call out but definitely exists on the girls side is knee injuries. Because girls go through puberty at a younger age than boys the wear and tear also happens at a younger age. If you're full grown at 12 it means by 16-17 expect to have ACL issues. This is one of those little zingers they dont tell you. Using the rae analogy these are the players that get picked first when they're young but by 16-17 are hurt and replaced by players that went through puberty later. This is why when they get older theres more Q4 players on top teams then when they're young.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:My kid is on an olders top team of a top 20 nationally club. She's played on the same top club/team since she was 5.

There are 5 players currently on the team now that were on the team when they were 5 years old. There's currently 4-5 trapped players (one is out hurt). My daughter is a Sept birthday. Current roster is 22

What all this means is 17 of the players weren't with the team at 5 years old. It also means that 17-18 were born Jan 1st to Sept 1st. This means 23% are trapped players but Sept-Dec is 33% of a 12 month calendar. This means that theres 10% variance that can be attributed to RAE if you believe in that kind of thing. On a BY team!

The person that keeps posting about RAE is ridiculious. They're likely a professional victim that's latched onto an excuse that can be molded into whatever that want it to be. At some point thet need to step up and stop making excuses.

I like how the professional rae victim said that the biggest kids are always Jan birthdays. This can be true but it can also be false. Not every Jan birthday will be the biggest kid. I also like how the professional rae victim said that being on the top team means getting the best coachs and resources. This is not true, theres good 1st team coaches and really poor 1st team coaches. Also on a 2nd team players will get more opportunities to play multiple positions. This is important because positions players play when they're 5 most likely wont be what they play at 16. Then they bring up the confidence thing. Some of the most confident players Ive seen stayed on the 2nd team for a long time just to build up confidence.

The professional rae victim is mostly nonsense. Yes there are a large number of Jan birthdays. But this doesn't mean if your kid isnt doing private lessons and futsal 2-3 hours a week on top of regular practice that they cant be a top player. My daughter played soccer with the boys every lunch in elementary school. I've never seen a trapped player sept-dec birthday that puts in the extra work not get noticed and opportunities. I have seen parents talk about rae when their kid got cut. As a parent you humor them but everyone knew that the issue wasnt rae.

Because of my survey of 1 RAE doesn’t exist🙄

The Hawks, out of their ~120 kids on ECNL rosters, have virtually no youngers.

Now what?

A statistics course should be a high school requirement.

They have interviewed every person that jumped out of an airplane without a parachute. 100% of them lived. Therefore it is completely safe to jump out an airplane without a chute.

They gave you a real life example and you discount it.

This is exactly what a "professional rae victim" would do.

So if 100 teams have no youngers and 1 team has 5 youngers does RAE exist or not? You honestly cant be that stupid..........

You are this stupid.

You've also provided no proof for your statement. Unless your kid has been on 100 teams and you documented evey Q4 player.

Just because you see rae in everything doesnt mean its always there.

There's always one communist in the group looking for an excuse. Your kid will age out soon and you'll find some other excuse to talk about online 24/7.

Jesus, you really are this stupid. Your proof that RAE doesnt exist is that some random team, that is not documented either, is proof that RAE doesn't exist because it has 5 youngers.

I am not OP. I am just pointing out that taking a singular data point for anything (durr my team has 5 youngers so RAE must not exist) is just plain moronic. Read Gadwell, listen to the ECNL podcast, understand the makeup of the older USYNT roster. RAE is documented over and over and obviously real. Not that age change does anything but shift the curve, but to say it doesnt exist is akin to thinking the world is flat.

The issue is you make rae sound like the ultimate excuse for everything. Its not

Its something victim mentality parents key into because it makes quitting or not making the top team easier to justify/quantify.

I dont have a dog in the fight. My kid is a q4 and a top player on a top team and the age change is the worst thing possible for her. She doesnt want to play "down" but she is also on the smaller size so the idea of kids another 5 months older than her is not super appealing either. I am just pointing out RAE exists. We can argue over the actual impact by age but to say it doesnt exist is not accurate

And just for comparison, roster of 20 and 3 youngers.

Its just annoying reading about rae 24/7 when its really not that big of an issue.

Whats also annoying is reading about how switching from BY to SY will change rae in some form. It wont, rae is exactly as it was before only different players are lightly affected.

Rae of course doesn't change in the aggregate with the change but for individual players calling them lightly affected us underselling it. Not just who is on what team but quality minutes on the field at stake here.

You dont get it.

Yes rae affects youngers and yes they might have a few more opportunities because of it. But, when they get older theres more Q4s on teams so things even out.

Its hard to explain this to some people but being on the top team isnt always the best way to develop a player. Second teams often allow players to try several different positions. First teams recruit specific players and pigeon hole them into that role. Here's a really good example of this. Often at 7v7 players that can kick it hard get put in defense and told to boot it up to the front. They get put in defense to keep the other team from scoring. The problem is players like this are ideal forwards. But they wont get trained for this role because coaches + parents want wins. When you get to 9v9 sometimes it makes sense to play on a second team if your kid gets to play forward every game to build up their confidense.

Parent ego and fomo makes you think that the rae boogeyman is stealing from your Q4 kids experience. But this isnt the case. When youre young being the best player on the team (1st team or 2nd team) is more important than wins.

Your house of cards falls on Sept-Dec kids reaching parity on older teams. It doesn't.

Older teams actually to have more Q4s and many are much better than the Q1s because they had to battle for everything thay have. The trick to enable this is to provide quality 2nd teams. This is the one thing your rae vision isnt accounting for.

You are soo close! Agree what's missing in youth soccer is clubs not giving the same coaches and resources to 2nd teams.

At what point do you accept accountability?

I take my kid the park 1-2x a week to shoot on goal + discuss what they did well in the last game. When she was younger she did Futsal 1-2x a week depending on games, played soccer with the boys at lunch, and did 1-2 hours of private lessons a month. Even now she does weekly weight training sessions on top of regular practices.

What have you done with your kid? Maybe there's a reason theyre not on the top team while others are independent of when they were born during the year.

Weekly weight training wow! Soo impressive!

My boy does more than that and I think it’s not enough. Can’t imagine thinking this shows they’re trying their best to be “top”.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid is on an olders top team of a top 20 nationally club. She's played on the same top club/team since she was 5.

There are 5 players currently on the team now that were on the team when they were 5 years old. There's currently 4-5 trapped players (one is out hurt). My daughter is a Sept birthday. Current roster is 22

What all this means is 17 of the players weren't with the team at 5 years old. It also means that 17-18 were born Jan 1st to Sept 1st. This means 23% are trapped players but Sept-Dec is 33% of a 12 month calendar. This means that theres 10% variance that can be attributed to RAE if you believe in that kind of thing. On a BY team!

The person that keeps posting about RAE is ridiculious. They're likely a professional victim that's latched onto an excuse that can be molded into whatever that want it to be. At some point thet need to step up and stop making excuses.

I like how the professional rae victim said that the biggest kids are always Jan birthdays. This can be true but it can also be false. Not every Jan birthday will be the biggest kid. I also like how the professional rae victim said that being on the top team means getting the best coachs and resources. This is not true, theres good 1st team coaches and really poor 1st team coaches. Also on a 2nd team players will get more opportunities to play multiple positions. This is important because positions players play when they're 5 most likely wont be what they play at 16. Then they bring up the confidence thing. Some of the most confident players Ive seen stayed on the 2nd team for a long time just to build up confidence.

The professional rae victim is mostly nonsense. Yes there are a large number of Jan birthdays. But this doesn't mean if your kid isnt doing private lessons and futsal 2-3 hours a week on top of regular practice that they cant be a top player. My daughter played soccer with the boys every lunch in elementary school. I've never seen a trapped player sept-dec birthday that puts in the extra work not get noticed and opportunities. I have seen parents talk about rae when their kid got cut. As a parent you humor them but everyone knew that the issue wasnt rae.

Because of my survey of 1 RAE doesn’t exist🙄

The Hawks, out of their ~120 kids on ECNL rosters, have virtually no youngers.

Now what?

A statistics course should be a high school requirement.

They have interviewed every person that jumped out of an airplane without a parachute. 100% of them lived. Therefore it is completely safe to jump out an airplane without a chute.

They gave you a real life example and you discount it.

This is exactly what a "professional rae victim" would do.

So if 100 teams have no youngers and 1 team has 5 youngers does RAE exist or not? You honestly cant be that stupid..........

You are this stupid.

You've also provided no proof for your statement. Unless your kid has been on 100 teams and you documented evey Q4 player.

Just because you see rae in everything doesnt mean its always there.

There's always one communist in the group looking for an excuse. Your kid will age out soon and you'll find some other excuse to talk about online 24/7.

Jesus, you really are this stupid. Your proof that RAE doesnt exist is that some random team, that is not documented either, is proof that RAE doesn't exist because it has 5 youngers.

I am not OP. I am just pointing out that taking a singular data point for anything (durr my team has 5 youngers so RAE must not exist) is just plain moronic. Read Gadwell, listen to the ECNL podcast, understand the makeup of the older USYNT roster. RAE is documented over and over and obviously real. Not that age change does anything but shift the curve, but to say it doesnt exist is akin to thinking the world is flat.

The issue is you make rae sound like the ultimate excuse for everything. Its not

Its something victim mentality parents key into because it makes quitting or not making the top team easier to justify/quantify.

I dont have a dog in the fight. My kid is a q4 and a top player on a top team and the age change is the worst thing possible for her. She doesnt want to play "down" but she is also on the smaller size so the idea of kids another 5 months older than her is not super appealing either. I am just pointing out RAE exists. We can argue over the actual impact by age but to say it doesnt exist is not accurate

And just for comparison, roster of 20 and 3 youngers.

Its just annoying reading about rae 24/7 when its really not that big of an issue.

Whats also annoying is reading about how switching from BY to SY will change rae in some form. It wont, rae is exactly as it was before only different players are lightly affected.

Rae of course doesn't change in the aggregate with the change but for individual players calling them lightly affected us underselling it. Not just who is on what team but quality minutes on the field at stake here.

You dont get it.

Yes rae affects youngers and yes they might have a few more opportunities because of it. But, when they get older theres more Q4s on teams so things even out.

Its hard to explain this to some people but being on the top team isnt always the best way to develop a player. Second teams often allow players to try several different positions. First teams recruit specific players and pigeon hole them into that role. Here's a really good example of this. Often at 7v7 players that can kick it hard get put in defense and told to boot it up to the front. They get put in defense to keep the other team from scoring. The problem is players like this are ideal forwards. But they wont get trained for this role because coaches + parents want wins. When you get to 9v9 sometimes it makes sense to play on a second team if your kid gets to play forward every game to build up their confidense.

Parent ego and fomo makes you think that the rae boogeyman is stealing from your Q4 kids experience. But this isnt the case. When youre young being the best player on the team (1st team or 2nd team) is more important than wins.

Your house of cards falls on Sept-Dec kids reaching parity on older teams. It doesn't.

Older teams actually to have more Q4s and many are much better than the Q1s because they had to battle for everything thay have. The trick to enable this is to provide quality 2nd teams. This is the one thing your rae vision isnt accounting for.

You are soo close! Agree what's missing in youth soccer is clubs not giving the same coaches and resources to 2nd teams.

At what point do you accept accountability?

I take my kid the park 1-2x a week to shoot on goal + discuss what they did well in the last game. When she was younger she did Futsal 1-2x a week depending on games, played soccer with the boys at lunch, and did 1-2 hours of private lessons a month. Even now she does weekly weight training sessions on top of regular practices.

What have you done with your kid? Maybe there's a reason theyre not on the top team while others are independent of when they were born during the year.

Weekly weight training wow! Soo impressive!

My boy does more than that and I think it’s not enough. Can’t imagine thinking this shows they’re trying their best to be “top”.

Girl numbnuts

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Real data on RAE. https://www.usyouthsoccer.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/160/2023/09/Relative-Age-Effect-in-Elite-Youth-Soccer.pdf Yes for boys, Equivocal for girls

Illustrates why those with girls can't believe the relative age effect exists or attempt to minimize its effects. And funny that the Tennessee study didn't see RAE until puberty for boys.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Real data on RAE. https://www.usyouthsoccer.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/160/2023/09/Relative-Age-Effect-in-Elite-Youth-Soccer.pdf Yes for boys, Equivocal for girls

This data is well more than a decade old.

Okay here is a more recent study. https://bmcsportsscimedrehabil.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13102-025-01312-1 Interesting that Premier league shows no effect, perhaps because the mix of English players coming up with a September cutoff mixed with internationals with BY.

[Anonymous]

The study shows that RAE exists for boys. But it also shows not just in the US. And not just in soccer. No one has yet to find a solution in any sport in any country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Real data on RAE. https://www.usyouthsoccer.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/160/2023/09/Relative-Age-Effect-in-Elite-Youth-Soccer.pdf Yes for boys, Equivocal for girls

This data is well more than a decade old.

Okay here is a more recent study. https://bmcsportsscimedrehabil.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13102-025-01312-1 Interesting that Premier league shows no effect, perhaps because the mix of English players coming up with a September cutoff mixed with internationals with BY.

It actually has more to do with talent id and the academy structured that allow for different development speeds.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Real data on RAE. https://www.usyouthsoccer.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/160/2023/09/Relative-Age-Effect-in-Elite-Youth-Soccer.pdf Yes for boys, Equivocal for girls

This data is well more than a decade old.

Okay here is a more recent study. https://bmcsportsscimedrehabil.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13102-025-01312-1 Interesting that Premier league shows no effect, perhaps because the mix of English players coming up with a September cutoff mixed with internationals with BY.

Interestingly enough if you dig deep enough in that study, you find another MORE ON POINT where one realizes RAE is very significant:

https://www.termedia.pl/Relative-age-effect-across-the-talent-identification-process-r-nof-youth-female-soccer-players-in-the-United-States-Influence-r-nof-birth-year-position-biological-maturation-and-skill-level,78,52572,1,1.html

What's really fun is the authors use BY to analyze these groups and FIND later year balance without apparently realizing those later years BEGAN in a SY system. They call it reverse RAE. It's bonkers, really.

CONCLUSIONS
"To conclude, our data showed an RAE of youth female soccer players within the US. At Club and TID Center, this RAE was most prominent in goalkeepers, center backs, midfielders, and center forwards, and for U13–U18 ages, but these did not typically transfer to YNT. Consistent RAEs were observed in early- and on-time-maturers across all levels. A reversal of ‘typical’ RAE was evident at YNT, with late-maturers more likely to be from Q4 and a higher percentage than elsewhere in the TID process. When interpreting all the data, some limitations should be acknowledged. Due to the large volume of players and the club soccer environment, we used estimated measurements of maturation. Future research may examine comparisons between scouts’ perceptions and actual biological maturation status. Moreover, we only provided a ‘snapshot’ of RAE in youth female soccer in the US. Therefore longitudinal, cross-sectional analysis examining youth-to-senior transitions would be beneficial to identify if there were different patterns of RAE amongst players retained across the stages in comparison to those newly selected [22]."