Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://youtu.be/v-rHBRwdql8

Mearsheimer two weeks ago

Ukraine is getting ground down

Yeah, I'd take Mearsheimer with a grain of salt. If you follow Mearsheimer's logic, Russia already failed to recognize Ukraine in a Conventional Deterrence sense since they assumed they would take Kiev in 3 days. Russia also failed to recognize the outcome of the attrition war has high costs for an attacker. I disagree that a blitzkrieg is doomed to failure in a modern war (won't list out why here, since it will give pro-Russians ideas), but I do agree with his assesment that Russia would have little chance of overwhelming Europe with one. His "case for a Ukrainian nuclear deterrent" theory is interesting, but a bit too late.

To his core points, the question is not whether Ukraine is getting "ground down." Any time even a single man, woman, or child dies in Ukraine, it is getting "ground down." Similarly, every minute there is shelling, shooting, etc. Ukraine is getting "ground down."

At the beginning of the war in 2022, yes, Mearsheimer was right and Russians were inflicting huge losses upon Ukraine. To a lesser extent, when Ukraine went on the offensive to regain most of its territory. However, as of late, the improvement in weapon capabilities in Fall '22 and Spring '23 changed the rates at which the Ukrainians inflicted casualties upon Russia.

The question is who is getting "ground down" at a faster rate at which point in time. He has a point about the mix of pro-Russian versus pro-Ukrainian population concentrations in East Ukraine, but I would argue that Mearsheimer's vision is too narrow and Mr. Mearsheimer is not a mathematician. He failed to account for the size of Russian territory, the population density per sq km, and the amount of resources that ties up in terms of Russian labor and materiel. He does not take into consideration that although, in theory, Ukrainian civilians have fled the country, in theory, those Ukrainians are 'safe' (i.e. capable of raising children, reproducing, etc.). Although not all will return to fight for Ukraine, Russia can't touch them. In the worst-case, this means that there is a large displaced population of millions who will likely never forgive Russia in their lifetimes.

Note that Mearsheimer makes an assumption regarding the loss of personnel, without actual proof? You could tell he was guessing with his statements on Russian artillery. I, for example, don't know how many Ukrainians have actually died, so had to look for anecdotal evidence to confirm or deny. What I do know is Russian cemeteries and crematoriums appear to be filling up faster, are already running at full capacity, and the Russians are building / buying even more.

Mearsheimer's POV is understandable with his background and what he knows, but he must of missed the 2022 Victory Day Parade videos. The Russians are desperately trying to maintain appearances of normalcy and superiority. They've diverted resources, scraped up funds, put every piece of equipment they had into service, etc. to convince everyone they're still at the top of their game; but I personally believe it's more of a front than not.

Russia is currently at 1.5M mobilization, yet they are resorting to "press gang" recruiting tactics, had to completely remove conscription age limits and the Russian Press Secretary had to recently quell rumors of a "full mobilization" (to prevent the population from panicking). You don't do that if everything is 'fine' in Russia. My estimate is that at 6M mobilization, Russia wouldn't be able to effectively govern their own country and far before that (at around 3M) I think their economy will go haywire (even going back to Stalinist economic principles).

But Mearsheimer is an "expert" and I'm just a DCUMS rando, so what do I know?

There have been accusations that the UA purposely doesn't try to recover bodies or confirm deaths. This is apparently for propaganda and financial reasons. Its a pretty big-brained move that lets you make some crazy claims about K/D ratios if you don't count most of your dead. Making Russia dispose of your dead is also a bonus. Then there is the financial incentive in keeping people listed as MIA, as no pensions to survivors get paid out until they are declared dead.

Given that the people running the country have propaganda and penny-pinching in their blood, its not really surprising this is how they operate.

Your antisemitism is showing again.

Also lots of projection. Lots and lots of projection.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:You had me until you said there was nothing bad about Russian food. Russian food is horrible. All the good stuff is Polish or Georgian. The rest is just cabbage and dill.

I'm counting Beef Stroganoff, Pelmeni, Syrniki, Pirozhki, Blini, Shashlik... I know I know, you're gonna say it's "not Russian", but that's like saying tandoori isn't mainstream English food.. the fact is that without tandoori, I probably would've starved in London..

Stroganoff yes, but inspired by other cuisines. Pelmeni came from Siberian people. Syrniki has Ukrainian etymology rather than Russian творог. And certainly Russia can't lay unique claim to pancakes. A lot is borrowed/appropriated from other people and cultures.

Appropriated! No credibility for you
-DP

Debating the cultural value of a country, any country, is detrimental to freedom. As soon as you decide which countries are "worthy" you imply which countries are less worthy of their territorial integrity. This is in part what Putin did in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. Doing it back to Russia only legitimizes the idea of judging a country's worthiness for self determination.

Ehh, I'm fine with delegitimizing Russia because they don't care about the worthiness or self-determination of other countries, like Ukraine.

No one really knows what self determination is or how it works. It has never been applied to countries equally or fairly. It’s mostly driven by his favored the country is. Like, I bet if a part of Russia suddenly voted to join Finland, they’d get a serious hearing. Artsakh wants to be a part of Armenia? Or be independent? Bubkes for them. Kosovo ? Now you’re talking.

With places like Finland, it pays to have friends.

As for some of the others, what meaningful friends do they have now? Armenia was for years basically a Russian client state, and they counted on Russia for protection. But now they know Russia is no longer there for them, CIS/CSTO etc have pretty much become a joke. Serbia may wake up to the same realization

DP but I am afraid you are are confusing cause and effect here. “The west” was always pro Azeri and anti Serbia which made Armenia and Serbia move to the other side

Armenia never moved anywhere. Since 1991 they were still under the Russian umbrella, member of CSTO et cetera. But that said, now would be a good time for them to move, since Russia is no longer there for them.

I mean it never wanted to “become part of the civilized Europe” which was very much the sentiment of say Georgia.
It felt unsupported in its karabakh ambitions so maybe that was part of it too

What did civilized Europe ever do for Armenia, tell me? Have you looked at the map? Did you see which countries border it?

And thanks for confirming self determination is available only to the fans of the civilized Europe.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:NP but I'm just dropping in to say that I'm angry on behalf of Ukraine and I need to see full, 100% justice happen in my lifetime.

Not Eastern European. Just someone with a background in social justice work who has imbibed and lived the tenets of that path, and I get angry when I think of how Ukraine has not won this war yet.

Oooh precious darling child. However did your tender heart live through Iraqis and Libya? I weep for you. Stupid poseur.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In the meantime, an update from Monaco: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/m-le-mag/article/2023/06/01/ukrainian-oligarchs-secret-escape-to-the-french-riviera_6028690_117.html

Oooh. Entire dozens. Yeah, that's what the article says. Dozens.

Color me unimpressed. Compare it to all of the Russian oligarchs who left and the countless tens of thousands of Russian draft dodgers and your "omg dozens of ukrainians in monaco" is not even a drop in the bucket.

Sure. Let the sons of peasants be grabbed off the streets and then rotted away in the trenches.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In the meantime, an update from Monaco: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/m-le-mag/article/2023/06/01/ukrainian-oligarchs-secret-escape-to-the-french-riviera_6028690_117.html

Oooh. Entire dozens. Yeah, that's what the article says. Dozens.

Color me unimpressed. Compare it to all of the Russian oligarchs who left and the countless tens of thousands of Russian draft dodgers and your "omg dozens of ukrainians in monaco" is not even a drop in the bucket.

Sure. Let the sons of peasants be grabbed off the streets and then rotted away in the trenches.

Wow. So you're trying to say that Ukraine is nothing but a few dozen oligarchs and the rest is all peasants? Really? Wow wow wow. You are really, truly unbelievable. You should be ashamed of yourself.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You had me until you said there was nothing bad about Russian food. Russian food is horrible. All the good stuff is Polish or Georgian. The rest is just cabbage and dill.

I'm counting Beef Stroganoff, Pelmeni, Syrniki, Pirozhki, Blini, Shashlik... I know I know, you're gonna say it's "not Russian", but that's like saying tandoori isn't mainstream English food.. the fact is that without tandoori, I probably would've starved in London..

Stroganoff yes, but inspired by other cuisines. Pelmeni came from Siberian people. Syrniki has Ukrainian etymology rather than Russian творог. And certainly Russia can't lay unique claim to pancakes. A lot is borrowed/appropriated from other people and cultures.

Appropriated! No credibility for you
-DP

Debating the cultural value of a country, any country, is detrimental to freedom. As soon as you decide which countries are "worthy" you imply which countries are less worthy of their territorial integrity. This is in part what Putin did in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. Doing it back to Russia only legitimizes the idea of judging a country's worthiness for self determination.

I was talking about Russian food for Pete’s sake! Once you start debating whether it’s Russian or “Siberian” and use the term appropriation you lose credibility sorry

Siberian culture is not Slav Culture. Siberian history is not Russian history. Not even all these years after Russia came along colonized them in the 17th century.

Sure, Siberia would have been so much better in its own! And such a realistic scenario too.
It’s all done and the only reason anyone starts talking about things that happened in the 17th century is to stir the pot and fish for something in it.

Sounds just like what European colonizers said about Africa. You're a piece of work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You had me until you said there was nothing bad about Russian food. Russian food is horrible. All the good stuff is Polish or Georgian. The rest is just cabbage and dill.

I'm counting Beef Stroganoff, Pelmeni, Syrniki, Pirozhki, Blini, Shashlik... I know I know, you're gonna say it's "not Russian", but that's like saying tandoori isn't mainstream English food.. the fact is that without tandoori, I probably would've starved in London..

Stroganoff yes, but inspired by other cuisines. Pelmeni came from Siberian people. Syrniki has Ukrainian etymology rather than Russian творог. And certainly Russia can't lay unique claim to pancakes. A lot is borrowed/appropriated from other people and cultures.

Appropriated! No credibility for you
-DP

Debating the cultural value of a country, any country, is detrimental to freedom. As soon as you decide which countries are "worthy" you imply which countries are less worthy of their territorial integrity. This is in part what Putin did in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. Doing it back to Russia only legitimizes the idea of judging a country's worthiness for self determination.

Ehh, I'm fine with delegitimizing Russia because they don't care about the worthiness or self-determination of other countries, like Ukraine.

No one really knows what self determination is or how it works. It has never been applied to countries equally or fairly. It’s mostly driven by his favored the country is. Like, I bet if a part of Russia suddenly voted to join Finland, they’d get a serious hearing. Artsakh wants to be a part of Armenia? Or be independent? Bubkes for them. Kosovo ? Now you’re talking.

With places like Finland, it pays to have friends.

As for some of the others, what meaningful friends do they have now? Armenia was for years basically a Russian client state, and they counted on Russia for protection. But now they know Russia is no longer there for them, CIS/CSTO etc have pretty much become a joke. Serbia may wake up to the same realization

DP but I am afraid you are are confusing cause and effect here. “The west” was always pro Azeri and anti Serbia which made Armenia and Serbia move to the other side

Armenia never moved anywhere. Since 1991 they were still under the Russian umbrella, member of CSTO et cetera. But that said, now would be a good time for them to move, since Russia is no longer there for them.

I mean it never wanted to “become part of the civilized Europe” which was very much the sentiment of say Georgia.
It felt unsupported in its karabakh ambitions so maybe that was part of it too

What did civilized Europe ever do for Armenia, tell me? Have you looked at the map? Did you see which countries border it?

And thanks for confirming self determination is available only to the fans of the civilized Europe.

You aren't making any sense. Armenia has for all these years, since 1991, remained under the economic and military umbrella of Russia through its alignments to CIS, CSTO and so on, so why are you blaming Europe for things that Russia was responsible for?

[Anonymous]

Maybe this should be retitled "Russian victory over Russia is inevitable"

Russian insurgents occupying Belgorod for 5 days straight now with Russian military unable to dislodge them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You had me until you said there was nothing bad about Russian food. Russian food is horrible. All the good stuff is Polish or Georgian. The rest is just cabbage and dill.

I'm counting Beef Stroganoff, Pelmeni, Syrniki, Pirozhki, Blini, Shashlik... I know I know, you're gonna say it's "not Russian", but that's like saying tandoori isn't mainstream English food.. the fact is that without tandoori, I probably would've starved in London..

Stroganoff yes, but inspired by other cuisines. Pelmeni came from Siberian people. Syrniki has Ukrainian etymology rather than Russian творог. And certainly Russia can't lay unique claim to pancakes. A lot is borrowed/appropriated from other people and cultures.

Appropriated! No credibility for you
-DP

Debating the cultural value of a country, any country, is detrimental to freedom. As soon as you decide which countries are "worthy" you imply which countries are less worthy of their territorial integrity. This is in part what Putin did in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. Doing it back to Russia only legitimizes the idea of judging a country's worthiness for self determination.

Ehh, I'm fine with delegitimizing Russia because they don't care about the worthiness or self-determination of other countries, like Ukraine.

No one really knows what self determination is or how it works. It has never been applied to countries equally or fairly. It’s mostly driven by his favored the country is. Like, I bet if a part of Russia suddenly voted to join Finland, they’d get a serious hearing. Artsakh wants to be a part of Armenia? Or be independent? Bubkes for them. Kosovo ? Now you’re talking.

With places like Finland, it pays to have friends.

As for some of the others, what meaningful friends do they have now? Armenia was for years basically a Russian client state, and they counted on Russia for protection. But now they know Russia is no longer there for them, CIS/CSTO etc have pretty much become a joke. Serbia may wake up to the same realization

DP but I am afraid you are are confusing cause and effect here. “The west” was always pro Azeri and anti Serbia which made Armenia and Serbia move to the other side

Armenia never moved anywhere. Since 1991 they were still under the Russian umbrella, member of CSTO et cetera. But that said, now would be a good time for them to move, since Russia is no longer there for them.

I mean it never wanted to “become part of the civilized Europe” which was very much the sentiment of say Georgia.
It felt unsupported in its karabakh ambitions so maybe that was part of it too

What did civilized Europe ever do for Armenia, tell me? Have you looked at the map? Did you see which countries border it?

And thanks for confirming self determination is available only to the fans of the civilized Europe.

You aren't making any sense. Armenia has for all these years, since 1991, remained under the economic and military umbrella of Russia through its alignments to CIS, CSTO and so on, so why are you blaming Europe for things that Russia was responsible for?

I see you are making an argument that the right of self-determination should only be available to nations that remain outside the economic and military umbrella of Russia through its alignments to CIS, CSTO and so on. That is excellent to know and thank you for clarifying your position.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In the meantime, an update from Monaco: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/m-le-mag/article/2023/06/01/ukrainian-oligarchs-secret-escape-to-the-french-riviera_6028690_117.html

Oooh. Entire dozens. Yeah, that's what the article says. Dozens.

Color me unimpressed. Compare it to all of the Russian oligarchs who left and the countless tens of thousands of Russian draft dodgers and your "omg dozens of ukrainians in monaco" is not even a drop in the bucket.

Sure. Let the sons of peasants be grabbed off the streets and then rotted away in the trenches.

Wow. So you're trying to say that Ukraine is nothing but a few dozen oligarchs and the rest is all peasants? Really? Wow wow wow. You are really, truly unbelievable. You should be ashamed of yourself.

I see you awoke too late to the awful truth that no one from Beverly Hills was ever killed in Viet Nam.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maybe this should be retitled "Russian victory over Russia is inevitable"

Russian insurgents occupying Belgorod for 5 days straight now with Russian military unable to dislodge them.

LOL about that, Belgium said it would like a chat with Ukraine about how its weapons have ended up in the hands of third parties. Uh huh. https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/06/05/brussels-to-demand-an-explanation-over-belgian-made-weapons-being-used-by-ukraine-on-russian-territory/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Ukraine 2022: pop 43.8M

Are you aware that more than 8 million people have left Ukraine in 2022?

As for the rest - time will tell.

I frankly don't see OP's hype making much progress over the last 16 months.

Hundreds of billions in Western money and aid, horrible destruction and death, and things remain the same.

If someone was trying to get the country of Ukraine demolished this was a great way to get it done.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Ukraine 2022: pop 43.8M

Are you aware that more than 8 million people have left Ukraine in 2022?

As for the rest - time will tell.

I frankly don't see OP's hype making much progress over the last 16 months.

Hundreds of billions in Western money and aid, horrible destruction and death, and things remain the same.

If someone was trying to get the country of Ukraine demolished this was a great way to get it done.

More than half of them have returned to Ukraine since then. Bucha and other places destroyed early in the war have already been rebuilt. Keep up. Or retire your old and unreliable news sources.

[Anonymous]

Ukraine is doing something, what exactly is hard to tell. But it looks like we see some of the first western tanks in action. One problem being that at least some of them are still sporting desert pattern camo. Seems to be making them easy targets in a much greener environment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Ukraine 2022: pop 43.8M

Are you aware that more than 8 million people have left Ukraine in 2022?

As for the rest - time will tell.

I frankly don't see OP's hype making much progress over the last 16 months.

Hundreds of billions in Western money and aid, horrible destruction and death, and things remain the same.

If someone was trying to get the country of Ukraine demolished this was a great way to get it done.

More than half of them have returned to Ukraine since then. Bucha and other places destroyed early in the war have already been rebuilt. Keep up. Or retire your old and unreliable news sources.

LOL no. It's rebuildING but it has most certainly not been rebuilt.
https://www.npr.org/2022/05/31/1102035346/in-two-photos-see-how-bucha-is-erasing-the-scars-of-russias-invasion

Also, you don't really understand the damage that the tank brigades bring. You're dealing with several destroyed streets and random artillery damage but it's not the carpet-bombing damage that, say, Iraq has taken that the US still has not rebuilt. Several streets are not hard to fix.