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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]https://youtu.be/v-rHBRwdql8

Mearsheimer two weeks ago

Ukraine is getting ground down [/quote]

Yeah, I'd take Mearsheimer with a grain of salt.  If you follow Mearsheimer's logic, Russia already failed to recognize Ukraine in a Conventional Deterrence sense since they assumed they would take Kiev in 3 days.  Russia also failed to recognize the outcome of the attrition war has high costs for an attacker.  I disagree that a blitzkrieg is doomed to failure in a modern war (won't list out why here, since it will give pro-Russians ideas), but I do agree with his assesment that Russia would have little chance of overwhelming Europe with one.  His "case for a Ukrainian nuclear deterrent" theory is interesting, but a bit too late.

To his core points, the question is not whether Ukraine is getting "ground down."  Any time even a single man, woman, or child dies in Ukraine, it is getting "ground down."  Similarly, every minute there is shelling, shooting, etc. Ukraine is getting "ground down."

At the beginning of the war in 2022, yes, Mearsheimer was right and Russians were inflicting huge losses upon Ukraine.  To a lesser extent, when Ukraine went on the offensive to regain most of its territory.  However, as of late, the improvement in weapon capabilities in Fall '22 and Spring '23 changed the rates at which the Ukrainians inflicted casualties upon Russia.

The question is who is getting "ground down" at a faster rate at which point in time.  He has a point about the mix of pro-Russian versus pro-Ukrainian population concentrations in East Ukraine, but I would argue that Mearsheimer's vision is too narrow and Mr. Mearsheimer is not a mathematician.  He failed to account for the size of Russian territory, the population density per sq km, and the amount of resources that ties up in terms of Russian labor and materiel.  He does not take into consideration that although, in theory, Ukrainian civilians have fled the country, in theory, those Ukrainians are 'safe' (i.e. capable of raising children, reproducing, etc.).  Although not all will return to fight for Ukraine, Russia can't touch them.  In the worst-case, this means that there is a large displaced population of millions who will likely never forgive Russia in their lifetimes.

Note that Mearsheimer makes an assumption regarding the loss of personnel, without actual proof?  You could tell he was guessing with his statements on Russian artillery.  I, for example, don't know how many Ukrainians have actually died, so had to look for anecdotal evidence to confirm or deny.  What I do know is Russian cemeteries and crematoriums appear to be filling up faster, are already running at full capacity, and the Russians are building / buying even more.

Mearsheimer's POV is understandable with his background and what he knows, but he must of missed the 2022 Victory Day Parade videos.  The Russians are desperately trying to maintain appearances of normalcy and superiority.  They've diverted resources, scraped up funds, put every piece of equipment they had into service, etc. to convince everyone they're still at the top of their game; but I personally believe it's more of a front than not.

Russia is currently at 1.5M mobilization, yet they are resorting to "press gang" recruiting tactics, had to completely remove conscription age limits and the Russian Press Secretary had to recently quell rumors of a "full mobilization" (to prevent the population from panicking).  You don't do that if everything is 'fine' in Russia.  My estimate is that at 6M mobilization, Russia wouldn't be able to effectively govern their own country and far before that (at around 3M) I think their economy will go haywire (even going back to Stalinist economic principles).

But Mearsheimer is an "expert" and I'm just a DCUMS rando, so what do I know?[/quote]

There have been accusations that the UA purposely doesn't try to recover bodies or confirm deaths. This is apparently for propaganda and financial reasons. Its a pretty big-brained move that lets you make some crazy claims about K/D ratios if you don't count most of your dead. Making Russia dispose of your dead is also a bonus. Then there is the financial incentive in keeping people listed as MIA, as no pensions to survivors get paid out until they are declared dead.

Given that the people running the country have propaganda [b]and penny-pinching in their blood[/b], its not really surprising this is how they operate. [/quote]

Your antisemitism is showing again.

Also lots of projection.  Lots and lots of projection. [/quote]

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