Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:How did the GOP KY-4 primary go from 52,600 votes in 2024 to over 105,000 votes in 2026? That's a 100% increase in votes cast in a primary within two years.
To me, that is the greatest indication of fraud. Turnout doesn't suddenly double for a Congressional primary.
ChatGPT analysis:
For KY-04 GOP, the jump appears real and unusually large: 2024 GOP primary turnout was about 52.6k votes, while unofficial 2026 results show 105,361 votes — 57,822 Gallrein + 47,539 Massie, essentially a doubling.
My conclusion: doubling within two years is rare when the baseline is already 50,000+ voters, as in KY-04. It is more common when the earlier race was sleepy, uncontested, or had a very low base. The KY-04 pattern looks like a “nationalized incumbent-purge primary” case rather than normal cyclic turnout movement.
Result: for machine-readable FEC data 2000–2022, I found:
* 4,277 eligible same district/party two-cycle comparisons
* 471 cases where turnout at least doubled
* Frequency: 11.0%
* But where the prior primary already had 50,000+ voters, only 28 of 1,706 doubled: 1.6%