I saw a report that used IRS numbers that had DC population declining. |
Stats seem to vary
https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/census-shows-pandemic-exodus-has-broken-dc-population-growth/ Will young families be as interested to move to Forest Hills with daytime shootings near the cute little playground and lots of men hanging out smoking pot? Or will they go to the burbs? There has to be an impact on property values from these shifts in crime patterns, it's just common sense. And for those in a pricy house with a great rate, may not order boxes but will they walk to Forest Hills Playground or drive to a park in Bethesda? People in houses who valued walkability to BreadFurst and Politics & Prose have to be a bit more uneasy now. |
Do people honestly believe that trends will not impact their own property values not to mention the tax base and quality of life in the city overall?
https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/dc/dc-is-the-most-undesirable-us-city-survey-says/65-08ba43d4-4e68-418d-9bd6-0ccfcfd8dc40 Before when DC had very high crime it was CHEAP and I did not have kids. The combo of high crime and high cost of living with remote work is not auspicious for DC. And that CRE crash has not been fully felt. One thing that has not been mentioned, before the voucher roll out up Connecticut, rents were dropping, some of the not yet problem buildings had signs offering 3 months free rent, etc. Vouchers have not only been a boon to landlords, they have created upward pressure on rents that make it more unaffordable for all. The concerns of those in rent stabilized units that they will be pushed out somehow for a high value voucher resident IS something that Frumin is purportedly attempting to address legislatively. |
People love to post the “driving more” narrative in response to concerns about rising crime. We moved to the suburbs after 25 years due to rising crime in our neighborhood. We drive less out here. My kids can walk to the ES, MS and HS. We can easily walk to three different pools, hiking trails, tennis courts and sports fields. My kids walk or bike to get snacks or pizza with friends. We have a community center and recreation center that haven’t been taken over by pot smokers and the homeless. If we want to go into the city it’s a 20 min drive. Driving is really a minor inconvenience versus dealing with package thefts, carjackings, violent unhoused people, or random gunfire on a regular basis. Crime in DC will not be properly addressed until the real estate market bottoms out, businesses begin to leave and the tourist industry takes a huge hit. Expect more families to leave. Expect city services to decline due to less tax revenue. You only need to look to the 80s and 90s to see the future. |
Wasn't part of the desirability of those houses the walkability of the neighborhood? The ability to have kids out and about? Violent crime on WMATA is way up too, even at rush hour. Previously it was the short commute but that is not as much of a driving factor with remote/hybrid work. This thread has focused on FH because of the shooting, there have been a lot of issues in Cleveland Park too, thus Frumin being at a public safety meeting there last week. Housing values have dropped in DC before, can happen again. I'd love for all of this to turn around but don't see any sign. And the CRE crash is going to have an unprecedented impact. Some areas that gentrified have slid back quite a bit re: crime and quality of life issues, think Chinatown, NoMa, Columbia Heights, Petworth. W3 was always insulated to a large extent but that no longer appears to be the case. Some seem far less happy with Deal and JR than was true a few years back, will families be less inclined to buy in W3, especially if commuting 5 days a week is not a factor? I do not think that the issues at play will be confined in impact to renters in a handful of buildings in Forest Hills. (Or Cleveland Park, or Woodly Park, or Cathedral Heights or Chevy Chase, etc, all experiencing similar issues). A shooting on a busy corner at 3pm on Saturday, near tennis courts and a playground is a spillover effect, no? What, 2 blocks from BreadFurst and just a bit more from Politics & Prose, prized for walkability? Will the bike lanes be bulletproof? It's rumored that the victims and shooters were not residents of either of the buildings on that corner. 3 shots, only 1 hit the victim. You could be driving by and be hit by a stray. It's alarming. |
This. Happy for your quality of life gains, PP. I wish you were not correct. Even in those times there was an occupied downtown so a CRE tax base and an insulated tax base in W3. Now, with remote work, that commercial tax base is not coming back to the same level, especially with the crime trends both on the street and WMATA. People newer to DC really may not understand where this is headed and that may include Allen and Nadeau. The link above, "Survey ranks DC as one of the least desirable places to live" due to high crime and high costs, made international news. Some foreign governments have issues travel cautions re: DC. If the teams do pull out for VA, Chinatown, once a destination for dining, shopping and entertainment will be nothing but an open air drug market, that used to be a tourist favorite. A point not mentioned is that the voucher program as implemented here draws people so there is never an endpoint, just like $900 immediate cash benefit draws people to CA. Housing people in individual apartments is far more expensive than other forms of shelter and providing services is exponentially more expensive. How long will it be affordable? What then for those folks? |
Have to say I miss the Fenty years...reasonable mayor, reasonable council, USAO office that still functioned and a stable tax base made for some really good years for family life in the District. The redone playgrounds, the pools, the greater safety, schools on the upswing... |
Most suburbs aren’t that walkable. And the point is not that driving is an inconvenience, but that it is more dangerous than other forms of transit. |
And the suburbs that are walkable are not affordable at all. |
Not sure I'd call Cleveland Park or Forest Hills houses "affordable"... |
Anyone else remember when people WOTP and north of the zoo used to call CCFR as a way to avoid the 911 call issues and risks?
There are genuine safety factors that have changed, that parents are noticing and weighing up the risks/rewards is not going to be stopped. I have friends who are happy on Capitol Hill, we moved, it got to feel too risky for our family years ago when there were daytime home invasions, etc. nearby. Ward 3 felt much safer and kids could have independence. There are a lot of changes happening in CC DC too, and a lot of crime patterns shifting, but Forest Hills is the focus of this thread. |
The years with Tony Williams as mayor were the best ones. Wish he'd come back. |
You don't know what you're talking about. There have been robberies and muggings in various parts of Cleveland Park. John Eaton School was the scene of a shooting with automatic weapons (when it was under reconstruction). More recently, there was a carjacking by Eaton and close to the Macomb playground, in the heart of CP. |
It would be nice to see movement by some of the Upper NW ANC commissioners. They seem much "woker than thou" when it comes to addressing crime yet extremely Libertarian on planning and zoning. It's a strange combo. |