Wizards and Caps could be moving to Potomac Yard

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Interesting because every sports economist who has looked at this deal has said its absolutely terrible for the city. Talked to Roger Noll at Stanford last night, who got the JP Morgan report dog and pony show earlier on who said the financials have vastly overestimated the number of events they'll host by 30 or more events per year, which dramatically impacts revenue projections. They all have a problem with the IMPLAN model the City's non-economist consultants used. Apparently true economists no longer use this model and its primarily used by folks looking to push projects as its notorious for over estimating the economic impacts. There is a complete loss of property taxes from the deal...so $300-$400 million that Ted doesn't have to pay since it will be a publicly-owned complex. The useful life of arenas is also generally considered to be 20-25 years. This deal is for financing of 35 years. So we get the privilege of paying for the arena after its no longer considered serviceable. Roger also told us that no matter what level you look at these deals, even down to the neighborhood level, you cannot make a case for a public subsidy over 10-15%. They just do not move the economic needle. Every bit of the money they bring is just taking is from somewhere else and they don't drive enough business to justify the cost. Roger said an arena like this has the same economic impact on a community as a Macys or a WalMart. Not sure we need to be taking on $1.4 billion of debt and other public moneys to pay for a WalMart.

This is really helpful. I hope the Alexandria and Del Ray neighbors take note, because THEY are the taxpayers who will be on this hook for this, not Virginians, not Washingtonians nor Marylanders.

Oh I am sure the state will be kicking in some funds for infrastructure etc, they should also get some fed Highway dollars for other road, transpotation improvements.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Field of schemes is a great blog maintained by an economist who specializes in stadium deal. He tends to be more than a bit skeptical.

The Alexandria Economic Development Partnership revealed some new slides about the financing of the proposed $2 billion Washington Capitals and Wizards arena complex yesterday, and they are very clear-plastic-bindery indeed:
So according to that first slide, deploying a calculator to translate from percentages into actual dollar amounts, the $2 billion total cost would be repaid by:

$420 million in cash from the teams.
$420 million worth of future lease payments from the teams.
$100 million in cash from the city of Alexandria.
$460 million in kickbacks of taxes from the project.
$600 million in “private revenue streams,” which is presumably parking and naming rights, but the chart doesn’t say.
That would amount to just $560 million in taxpayer spending, which is a lot less than the $1.5 billion previously estimated. However, it leaves out some important pieces: $150-200 million in spending by the state of Virginia on transportation upgrades, plus around $380 million in property tax breaks, which would get the total subsidy comfortably back up over $1 billion.

Plus, of course, neither the pie chart nor that other Sankey diagram (which isn’t really used the way Sankeys should be, but it does look pretty) nor any of the rest of the presentation to yesterday’s town hall provides any indication of where the numbers came from, so they could all be just entirely made up. (It’s one of the many questions local residents asked at the town hall.) But here they are and we can’t unsee them now, so that’s some data viz money well-spent by the AEDC.

https://www.fieldofschemes.com/2024/01/09/20809/alexandria-releases-charts-showing-caps-wizards-arena-would-still-cost-public-1b-but-in-pretty-colors/

Yes but Alexandrians would rather pay taxes on a bad stadium deal than on affordable housing in that space. A stadium won't have as much traffic as apartment complexs and won't make ACPS even more embarrassing and sad than it already is.

None of the governments can build affordable housing around here. They have been captured by the builders and their own zoning regulations. You can just build smaller units and hope it goes for a lower price.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Reported. The arena site and Target were washed away by the recent torrential rains.

I heard the anti-arena Del Ray wine moms were searching the flood waters for Valentine’s Day Stanley cups.

On a serious note, how do these Alexandrians think affordable housing and failing schools are actually paid for? Do people in Del Ray really want to pay $25k a year in taxes for a duplex that floods? To me the arena seems like a great way to get taxpayers across the Commonwealth to cover many of the arena’s costs, when Alexandria will see a disproportionate amount of the revenue. If it’s not an arena it will just be more high rise affordable housing units that bring 800 kids into schools, make demands on public safety, and overflow the crumbling roads.

The Arena definitely seems like the good option.

The problem is the 2 billion dollars that the residents of Alexandria are liable for if ticket sales and concession sales are not sufficient to meet the obligation.

Understandable, but then should the focus be on ensuring these are fair and realistic terms instead of whole cloth objection to the project? Having lived in the oppressive traffic of Miami, the cries of traffic just mean little to me (and I literally drive route 1 to W. Glebe every day to get home from work).

Route 1, as you seem to know, is already bad, right? Now add 12,000 cars between 5:30 and 6:45 on any game night and see how you fare.

Can someone point out a traffiic problem that has been fixed in the last 20 years in the DMV?

The I95S HOT lanes did make some improvements. The state is on the hook with Transurban if there isn't enough revenue (Yes, I am aware of the official party line but you know it won't be allowed to go bankrupt.) I imagine it was a close call during the COVID lockdown that wasn't a lockdown.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Field of schemes is a great blog maintained by an economist who specializes in stadium deal. He tends to be more than a bit skeptical.

The Alexandria Economic Development Partnership revealed some new slides about the financing of the proposed $2 billion Washington Capitals and Wizards arena complex yesterday, and they are very clear-plastic-bindery indeed:
So according to that first slide, deploying a calculator to translate from percentages into actual dollar amounts, the $2 billion total cost would be repaid by:

$420 million in cash from the teams.
$420 million worth of future lease payments from the teams.
$100 million in cash from the city of Alexandria.
$460 million in kickbacks of taxes from the project.
$600 million in “private revenue streams,” which is presumably parking and naming rights, but the chart doesn’t say.
That would amount to just $560 million in taxpayer spending, which is a lot less than the $1.5 billion previously estimated. However, it leaves out some important pieces: $150-200 million in spending by the state of Virginia on transportation upgrades, plus around $380 million in property tax breaks, which would get the total subsidy comfortably back up over $1 billion.

Plus, of course, neither the pie chart nor that other Sankey diagram (which isn’t really used the way Sankeys should be, but it does look pretty) nor any of the rest of the presentation to yesterday’s town hall provides any indication of where the numbers came from, so they could all be just entirely made up. (It’s one of the many questions local residents asked at the town hall.) But here they are and we can’t unsee them now, so that’s some data viz money well-spent by the AEDC.

https://www.fieldofschemes.com/2024/01/09/20809/alexandria-releases-charts-showing-caps-wizards-arena-would-still-cost-public-1b-but-in-pretty-colors/

Yes but Alexandrians would rather pay taxes on a bad stadium deal than on affordable housing in that space. A stadium won't have as much traffic as apartment complexs and won't make ACPS even more embarrassing and sad than it already is.

This is a patently false statement. Apartments or condos at that site would be considered transit-friendly atop the PY metro station that CAN accommodate that passenger traffic, and even if there say 1,000 units of housing, it would not generate more than 2500 vehicle trips per day, which is easily absorbed by Route 1. Contrast that with a crush of peak period vehicular traffic of at least 10,000 cars during evening rush hour and after events, which Route 1 cannot handle.

[Anonymous]

Arena over this any day.
https://www.housingalexandria.org/properties/arlandria/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Youngkin has to strike a deal with L Louise Lucas.

LOL He's out of his league

I would take Youngkin over a woman who makes money off selling THC to kids. Maybe Leonsis will give her a place a dispensary in the development?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Field of schemes is a great blog maintained by an economist who specializes in stadium deal. He tends to be more than a bit skeptical.

The Alexandria Economic Development Partnership revealed some new slides about the financing of the proposed $2 billion Washington Capitals and Wizards arena complex yesterday, and they are very clear-plastic-bindery indeed:
So according to that first slide, deploying a calculator to translate from percentages into actual dollar amounts, the $2 billion total cost would be repaid by:

$420 million in cash from the teams.
$420 million worth of future lease payments from the teams.
$100 million in cash from the city of Alexandria.
$460 million in kickbacks of taxes from the project.
$600 million in “private revenue streams,” which is presumably parking and naming rights, but the chart doesn’t say.
That would amount to just $560 million in taxpayer spending, which is a lot less than the $1.5 billion previously estimated. However, it leaves out some important pieces: $150-200 million in spending by the state of Virginia on transportation upgrades, plus around $380 million in property tax breaks, which would get the total subsidy comfortably back up over $1 billion.

Plus, of course, neither the pie chart nor that other Sankey diagram (which isn’t really used the way Sankeys should be, but it does look pretty) nor any of the rest of the presentation to yesterday’s town hall provides any indication of where the numbers came from, so they could all be just entirely made up. (It’s one of the many questions local residents asked at the town hall.) But here they are and we can’t unsee them now, so that’s some data viz money well-spent by the AEDC.

https://www.fieldofschemes.com/2024/01/09/20809/alexandria-releases-charts-showing-caps-wizards-arena-would-still-cost-public-1b-but-in-pretty-colors/

Yes but Alexandrians would rather pay taxes on a bad stadium deal than on affordable housing in that space. A stadium won't have as much traffic as apartment complexs and won't make ACPS even more embarrassing and sad than it already is.

No one is paying to build affordable housing on a super fund site, especially one with arsenic in the soil.

[Anonymous]

My neighborhood within a mile of the site majority endorses the project. We are plotting how to support it without getting embroiled in the political miasma.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Field of schemes is a great blog maintained by an economist who specializes in stadium deal. He tends to be more than a bit skeptical.

The Alexandria Economic Development Partnership revealed some new slides about the financing of the proposed $2 billion Washington Capitals and Wizards arena complex yesterday, and they are very clear-plastic-bindery indeed:
So according to that first slide, deploying a calculator to translate from percentages into actual dollar amounts, the $2 billion total cost would be repaid by:

$420 million in cash from the teams.
$420 million worth of future lease payments from the teams.
$100 million in cash from the city of Alexandria.
$460 million in kickbacks of taxes from the project.
$600 million in “private revenue streams,” which is presumably parking and naming rights, but the chart doesn’t say.
That would amount to just $560 million in taxpayer spending, which is a lot less than the $1.5 billion previously estimated. However, it leaves out some important pieces: $150-200 million in spending by the state of Virginia on transportation upgrades, plus around $380 million in property tax breaks, which would get the total subsidy comfortably back up over $1 billion.

Plus, of course, neither the pie chart nor that other Sankey diagram (which isn’t really used the way Sankeys should be, but it does look pretty) nor any of the rest of the presentation to yesterday’s town hall provides any indication of where the numbers came from, so they could all be just entirely made up. (It’s one of the many questions local residents asked at the town hall.) But here they are and we can’t unsee them now, so that’s some data viz money well-spent by the AEDC.

https://www.fieldofschemes.com/2024/01/09/20809/alexandria-releases-charts-showing-caps-wizards-arena-would-still-cost-public-1b-but-in-pretty-colors/

Yes but Alexandrians would rather pay taxes on a bad stadium deal than on affordable housing in that space. A stadium won't have as much traffic as apartment complexs and won't make ACPS even more embarrassing and sad than it already is.

No one is paying to build affordable housing on a super fund site, especially one with arsenic in the soil.

Isn't there a housing development on a Superfund site in DC or MD? I wouldn't put it past the developers here, they are allowed to do whatever they want.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My neighborhood within a mile of the site majority endorses the project. We are plotting how to support it without getting embroiled in the political miasma.

How much is your household willing to chip in to cover the bond obligation? $1000/year? $2500/year? What is your threshold?

Because mine is zero. I have no interest in subsidizing Ted Leonisis with my tax dollars.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Field of schemes is a great blog maintained by an economist who specializes in stadium deal. He tends to be more than a bit skeptical.

The Alexandria Economic Development Partnership revealed some new slides about the financing of the proposed $2 billion Washington Capitals and Wizards arena complex yesterday, and they are very clear-plastic-bindery indeed:
So according to that first slide, deploying a calculator to translate from percentages into actual dollar amounts, the $2 billion total cost would be repaid by:

$420 million in cash from the teams.
$420 million worth of future lease payments from the teams.
$100 million in cash from the city of Alexandria.
$460 million in kickbacks of taxes from the project.
$600 million in “private revenue streams,” which is presumably parking and naming rights, but the chart doesn’t say.
That would amount to just $560 million in taxpayer spending, which is a lot less than the $1.5 billion previously estimated. However, it leaves out some important pieces: $150-200 million in spending by the state of Virginia on transportation upgrades, plus around $380 million in property tax breaks, which would get the total subsidy comfortably back up over $1 billion.

Plus, of course, neither the pie chart nor that other Sankey diagram (which isn’t really used the way Sankeys should be, but it does look pretty) nor any of the rest of the presentation to yesterday’s town hall provides any indication of where the numbers came from, so they could all be just entirely made up. (It’s one of the many questions local residents asked at the town hall.) But here they are and we can’t unsee them now, so that’s some data viz money well-spent by the AEDC.

https://www.fieldofschemes.com/2024/01/09/20809/alexandria-releases-charts-showing-caps-wizards-arena-would-still-cost-public-1b-but-in-pretty-colors/

Yes but Alexandrians would rather pay taxes on a bad stadium deal than on affordable housing in that space. A stadium won't have as much traffic as apartment complexs and won't make ACPS even more embarrassing and sad than it already is.

No one is paying to build affordable housing on a super fund site, especially one with arsenic in the soil.

Isn't there a housing development on a Superfund site in DC or MD? I wouldn't put it past the developers here, they are allowed to do whatever they want.

It's not a matter of being allowed to, it's how much it costs to mitigate the site. Not all superfund sites are created equal and Potomac yards happens to be one that is extremely expensive to mitigate. No developer is going to do it unless the they can make a profit and there is not enough money in public and low income housing to justify building there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Youngkin has to strike a deal with L Louise Lucas.

LOL He's out of his league

I would take Youngkin over a woman who makes money off selling THC to kids. Maybe Leonsis will give her a place a dispensary in the development?

And yet she's 10000x better than a misogynist who DGAF about the people in ALX/ARL.

He just wants to make a deal for his own benefit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Youngkin has to strike a deal with L Louise Lucas.

LOL He's out of his league

I would take Youngkin over a woman who makes money off selling THC to kids. Maybe Leonsis will give her a place a dispensary in the development?

And yet she's 10000x better than a misogynist who DGAF about the people in ALX/ARL.

He just wants to make a deal for his own benefit.

At least he isn’t selling drugs that cause psychosis to kids. How many people does he employ?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Interesting because every sports economist who has looked at this deal has said its absolutely terrible for the city. Talked to Roger Noll at Stanford last night, who got the JP Morgan report dog and pony show earlier on who said the financials have vastly overestimated the number of events they'll host by 30 or more events per year, which dramatically impacts revenue projections. They all have a problem with the IMPLAN model the City's non-economist consultants used. Apparently true economists no longer use this model and its primarily used by folks looking to push projects as its notorious for over estimating the economic impacts. There is a complete loss of property taxes from the deal...so $300-$400 million that Ted doesn't have to pay since it will be a publicly-owned complex. The useful life of arenas is also generally considered to be 20-25 years. This deal is for financing of 35 years. So we get the privilege of paying for the arena after its no longer considered serviceable. Roger also told us that no matter what level you look at these deals, even down to the neighborhood level, you cannot make a case for a public subsidy over 10-15%. They just do not move the economic needle. Every bit of the money they bring is just taking is from somewhere else and they don't drive enough business to justify the cost. Roger said an arena like this has the same economic impact on a community as a Macys or a WalMart. Not sure we need to be taking on $1.4 billion of debt and other public moneys to pay for a WalMart.

This is really helpful. I hope the Alexandria and Del Ray neighbors take note, because THEY are the taxpayers who will be on this hook for this, not Virginians, not Washingtonians nor Marylanders.

Oh I am sure the state will be kicking in some funds for infrastructure etc, they should also get some fed Highway dollars for other road, transpotation improvements.

Why? This is self-inflicted. And why should billionaire sports team owners get a free ride?

[Anonymous]

Does anyone think Youngkin is putting the screws to NoVa because we don't vote for him? I think he has gone on the offensive against us.