2028 Girls Lacrosse

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Stars is starting to gel and will beat BLC and Pride this year.

BLC 2028s? They are not in the top 150. Not good enough to be in the same bracket as Stars LB in tourneys or NGLL.

Stars LB should be stronger this year, but beating Pride will be a challenge. Probably only one game at NGLL as they play in different brackets at tournaments.

Pride red and stars lb should be pretty evenly matched this year.

Evenly matched against M&D.

They both should have good seasons and win a lot of games. They picked up players and continue to improve and always play tough against each other.

Trolling at its best. Pride or Stars didn't pick up anyone that would improve their teams and Pride lost a lot of offense. Good luck thinking either team will beat a MD team.

Perhaps you mean a top 7 ranked MD team. Pride beat #9 Sky Walkers twice last year and Stars beat them as well. Pride tied M&D in their last game. (And obviously, we aren't counting Next Level or Hero's White, or FCA, etc.)

Better facts. Stars did get stronger and picked up a blue chip goalie; Pride lost two good attackers, but have the ability to run the offense differently this year, and maintain their improved goal scoring (30 more goals in NGLL 8 game season than the year before), with solid offensive-minded middies and attackers.

Pride will break through against Hero's Green (1 and 2 goal losses last year), M&D (tied), Crush (2 goal loss), or MDU (tied last year) this year and get that elusive W. Coppermine is out of the question.

Stars did not pick up any impact field players.

Pride loses two good attackers, will change strategy to rely on middies for goal scoring and will beat a team they’ve never won against that is itself, improved. Sounds like Larry Michael predicting Redskins victories. All faith, no basis in fact.

Hero's is improved. M&D is not improved. MDU is worse unless you are Larry Michaels, in which case there are loads of opportunities for girls to step up. One of the now-former Pride attackers was more of an individual contributor and I actually think the offense will work better now.

Thanks Pride dad for that analysis. Probably a Redskins fan celebrating the Redskins Pre season Super Bowl champs. Then disappointment comes every year, just like Pride's recruiting.

Nope, PP was right. That analysis is solid, and you just sound mean-spirited, jealous, or bitter. None of those are great. And the Washington NFL team is the Commanders.

Just like hyped up Skins fans, the delusions continue. The analysis isn’t solid and the woulda coulda shoulda isn’t winning any games. Time to move on. The top Maryland teams are all much better than Pride or Stars, deal with it.

As for Youth nationals, a Colorado team won the 28 bracket not Hero’s

You are wrong again, unsurprisingly. Hero's won Youth Nationals for 2028s. Urban Elite from Colorado knocked off Coppermine, but Hero's beat them 9-4 on the way to the championship.

A Colorado team, 3D Colorado 28 AA (which as not really a factor the rest of the season) was the surprise winner of the Mid-Atlantic Summer Club Championships beating both Eagle Stix and Crush in the process. Hero's wasn't in that tournament.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the underlying point is that Hero’s is beatable. Their ranking would have dropped had any one of those one goal games gone the other way. An upset seems within reach of any top 20 team that shows up.

That's not really how the rankings work. It’s all about goal diffirential, You starrt getting 25-30 games played, a few goal swing barely moves the needle.

That’s not at all how it works, actually. Goal differentials have nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with a team’s record and strength of schedule:

“Using only game results, US Club Lax's algorithm computes an overall average performance rating for teams based on how teams perform against other teams and the strength of a team’s opponents.”

Read more: https://www.usclublax.com/faq

There is no reference to goal differentials playing any role whatsoever in assessing rankings on the US Club Lax website.

A Hero’s loss to any of the one goal games against opponents of significantly lower strength, those above top 10, would have resulted in a lower ranking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
You are wrong again, unsurprisingly. Hero's won Youth Nationals for 2028s. Urban Elite from Colorado knocked off Coppermine, but Hero's beat them 9-4 on the way to the championship.

A Colorado team, 3D Colorado 28 AA (which as not really a factor the rest of the season) was the surprise winner of the Mid-Atlantic Summer Club Championships beating both Eagle Stix and Crush in the process. Hero's wasn't in that tournament.

To piggyback, here is a link to the schedule. As PP stated, Hero's beat UE in Semis 9-4 and then beat Aces 8-5 in championship.
https://steps.teamsportsinfo.com/USALacrosse-youthnationals-2023/Schedules

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the underlying point is that Hero’s is beatable. Their ranking would have dropped had any one of those one goal games gone the other way. An upset seems within reach of any top 20 team that shows up.

That's not really how the rankings work. It’s all about goal diffirential, You starrt getting 25-30 games played, a few goal swing barely moves the needle.

That’s not at all how it works, actually. Goal differentials have nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with a team’s record and strength of schedule:

“Using only game results, US Club Lax's algorithm computes an overall average performance rating for teams based on how teams perform against other teams and the strength of a team’s opponents.”

Read more: https://www.usclublax.com/faq

There is no reference to goal differentials playing any role whatsoever in assessing rankings on the US Club Lax website.

A Hero’s loss to any of the one goal games against opponents of significantly lower strength, those above top 10, would have resulted in a lower ranking.

No personal dog in this fight, but you are very wrong. Confidently, but obviously, wrong.

Open the tab "ratings math" after you click through to the record of any ranked team. You will note that goal differential is the key modifier on top of the main component, strength of schedule. Wins and losses are not a factor, as evidenced by the high number of losses sustained by most of the top 10 teams.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the underlying point is that Hero’s is beatable. Their ranking would have dropped had any one of those one goal games gone the other way. An upset seems within reach of any top 20 team that shows up.

That's not really how the rankings work. It’s all about goal diffirential, You starrt getting 25-30 games played, a few goal swing barely moves the needle.

That’s not at all how it works, actually. Goal differentials have nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with a team’s record and strength of schedule:

“Using only game results, US Club Lax's algorithm computes an overall average performance rating for teams based on how teams perform against other teams and the strength of a team’s opponents.”

Read more: https://www.usclublax.com/faq

There is no reference to goal differentials playing any role whatsoever in assessing rankings on the US Club Lax website.

A Hero’s loss to any of the one goal games against opponents of significantly lower strength, those above top 10, would have resulted in a lower ranking.

No personal dog in this fight, but you are very wrong. Confidently, but obviously, wrong.

Open the tab "ratings math" after you click through to the record of any ranked team. You will note that goal differential is the key modifier on top of the main component, strength of schedule. Wins and losses are not a factor, as evidenced by the high number of losses sustained by most of the top 10 teams.

You could also add AGD (Average Goal Differential) plus the Strength of Schedule to get the team rating--right there on the main page.

"any role whatsoever"...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the underlying point is that Hero’s is beatable. Their ranking would have dropped had any one of those one goal games gone the other way. An upset seems within reach of any top 20 team that shows up.

That's not really how the rankings work. It’s all about goal diffirential, You starrt getting 25-30 games played, a few goal swing barely moves the needle.

That’s not at all how it works, actually. Goal differentials have nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with a team’s record and strength of schedule:

“Using only game results, US Club Lax's algorithm computes an overall average performance rating for teams based on how teams perform against other teams and the strength of a team’s opponents.”

Read more: https://www.usclublax.com/faq

There is no reference to goal differentials playing any role whatsoever in assessing rankings on the US Club Lax website.

A Hero’s loss to any of the one goal games against opponents of significantly lower strength, those above top 10, would have resulted in a lower ranking.

CLick on the "Rating Math" tab, you can see exactly how many points a team earns each game.

Example, Hero's Green beat Aces 8-5 in last game of season.

Hero's earned +3 (Goal Differential) over what Aces team score is. Aces is worth 96.48, that is rounded to 96, so Hero's earned 99 points for that game.

Hero's on the season ended up with a 97.9 rating, so a 99 game didn't really change them too much after 42 games played. Its worth a fraction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the underlying point is that Hero’s is beatable. Their ranking would have dropped had any one of those one goal games gone the other way. An upset seems within reach of any top 20 team that shows up.

That's not really how the rankings work. It’s all about goal diffirential, You starrt getting 25-30 games played, a few goal swing barely moves the needle.

That’s not at all how it works, actually. Goal differentials have nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with a team’s record and strength of schedule:

“Using only game results, US Club Lax's algorithm computes an overall average performance rating for teams based on how teams perform against other teams and the strength of a team’s opponents.”

Read more: https://www.usclublax.com/faq

There is no reference to goal differentials playing any role whatsoever in assessing rankings on the US Club Lax website.

A Hero’s loss to any of the one goal games against opponents of significantly lower strength, those above top 10, would have resulted in a lower ranking.

No personal dog in this fight, but you are very wrong. Confidently, but obviously, wrong.

Open the tab "ratings math" after you click through to the record of any ranked team. You will note that goal differential is the key modifier on top of the main component, strength of schedule. Wins and losses are not a factor, as evidenced by the high number of losses sustained by most of the top 10 teams.

Your analysis falsely assumes each goal is weighted equally and that a team's GD is all that matters in determining a team's ranking.

USCL doesn't determine rankings based on straight GD the same way a tournament uses GD to determine which teams advance to a playoff.

USCL assigns a different point value to each goal based on the strength of each opponent played.

Which means a loss to a lower ranked team does matter when it comes to a team's overall ranking.

I'll make this easier with an example: Hero's lost by two to Coppermine but was awarded .08 points toward its ranking score because USCL expected Hero's to lose by that GD since Coppermine is ranked higher. Yet Hero's beat Pride by one and lost a proportionally higher share of points (-2.64) toward its ranking score because, based on Pride's performance, USCL predicted Hero's would win by a much wider margin.

Losses to lower ranked teams put greater negative pressure on a team's ranking score. So the original statement stands - had any of Hero's tight wins been losses, they would have dropped in the rankings because USCL would have deducted a higher percentage of points from their ranking score, which would have resulted in a lower overall ranking score.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the underlying point is that Hero’s is beatable. Their ranking would have dropped had any one of those one goal games gone the other way. An upset seems within reach of any top 20 team that shows up.

That's not really how the rankings work. It’s all about goal diffirential, You starrt getting 25-30 games played, a few goal swing barely moves the needle.

That’s not at all how it works, actually. Goal differentials have nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with a team’s record and strength of schedule:

“Using only game results, US Club Lax's algorithm computes an overall average performance rating for teams based on how teams perform against other teams and the strength of a team’s opponents.”

Read more: https://www.usclublax.com/faq

There is no reference to goal differentials playing any role whatsoever in assessing rankings on the US Club Lax website.

A Hero’s loss to any of the one goal games against opponents of significantly lower strength, those above top 10, would have resulted in a lower ranking.

No personal dog in this fight, but you are very wrong. Confidently, but obviously, wrong.

Open the tab "ratings math" after you click through to the record of any ranked team. You will note that goal differential is the key modifier on top of the main component, strength of schedule. Wins and losses are not a factor, as evidenced by the high number of losses sustained by most of the top 10 teams.

Your analysis falsely assumes each goal is weighted equally and that a team's GD is all that matters in determining a team's ranking.

USCL doesn't determine rankings based on straight GD the same way a tournament uses GD to determine which teams advance to a playoff.

USCL assigns a different point value to each goal based on the strength of each opponent played.

Which means a loss to a lower ranked team does matter when it comes to a team's overall ranking.

I'll make this easier with an example: Hero's lost by two to Coppermine but was awarded .08 points toward its ranking score because USCL expected Hero's to lose by that GD since Coppermine is ranked higher. Yet Hero's beat Pride by one and lost a proportionally higher share of points (-2.64) toward its ranking score because, based on Pride's performance, USCL predicted Hero's would win by a much wider margin.

Losses to lower ranked teams put greater negative pressure on a team's ranking score. So the original statement stands - had any of Hero's tight wins been losses, they would have dropped in the rankings because USCL would have deducted a higher percentage of points from their ranking score, which would have resulted in a lower overall ranking score.

Dude, it's strength of schedule and goal differential. They don't deduct a higher percentage of points.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the underlying point is that Hero’s is beatable. Their ranking would have dropped had any one of those one goal games gone the other way. An upset seems within reach of any top 20 team that shows up.

That's not really how the rankings work. It’s all about goal diffirential, You starrt getting 25-30 games played, a few goal swing barely moves the needle.

That’s not at all how it works, actually. Goal differentials have nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with a team’s record and strength of schedule:

“Using only game results, US Club Lax's algorithm computes an overall average performance rating for teams based on how teams perform against other teams and the strength of a team’s opponents.”

Read more: https://www.usclublax.com/faq

There is no reference to goal differentials playing any role whatsoever in assessing rankings on the US Club Lax website.

A Hero’s loss to any of the one goal games against opponents of significantly lower strength, those above top 10, would have resulted in a lower ranking.

No personal dog in this fight, but you are very wrong. Confidently, but obviously, wrong.

Open the tab "ratings math" after you click through to the record of any ranked team. You will note that goal differential is the key modifier on top of the main component, strength of schedule. Wins and losses are not a factor, as evidenced by the high number of losses sustained by most of the top 10 teams.

Your analysis falsely assumes each goal is weighted equally and that a team's GD is all that matters in determining a team's ranking.

USCL doesn't determine rankings based on straight GD the same way a tournament uses GD to determine which teams advance to a playoff.

USCL assigns a different point value to each goal based on the strength of each opponent played.

Which means a loss to a lower ranked team does matter when it comes to a team's overall ranking.

I'll make this easier with an example: Hero's lost by two to Coppermine but was awarded .08 points toward its ranking score because USCL expected Hero's to lose by that GD since Coppermine is ranked higher. Yet Hero's beat Pride by one and lost a proportionally higher share of points (-2.64) toward its ranking score because, based on Pride's performance, USCL predicted Hero's would win by a much wider margin.

Losses to lower ranked teams put greater negative pressure on a team's ranking score. So the original statement stands - had any of Hero's tight wins been losses, they would have dropped in the rankings because USCL would have deducted a higher percentage of points from their ranking score, which would have resulted in a lower overall ranking score.

Dude, it's strength of schedule and goal differential. They don't deduct a higher percentage of points.

Finally, a little sanity

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the underlying point is that Hero’s is beatable. Their ranking would have dropped had any one of those one goal games gone the other way. An upset seems within reach of any top 20 team that shows up.

That's not really how the rankings work. It’s all about goal diffirential, You starrt getting 25-30 games played, a few goal swing barely moves the needle.

That’s not at all how it works, actually. Goal differentials have nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with a team’s record and strength of schedule:

“Using only game results, US Club Lax's algorithm computes an overall average performance rating for teams based on how teams perform against other teams and the strength of a team’s opponents.”

Read more: https://www.usclublax.com/faq

There is no reference to goal differentials playing any role whatsoever in assessing rankings on the US Club Lax website.

A Hero’s loss to any of the one goal games against opponents of significantly lower strength, those above top 10, would have resulted in a lower ranking.

No personal dog in this fight, but you are very wrong. Confidently, but obviously, wrong.

Open the tab "ratings math" after you click through to the record of any ranked team. You will note that goal differential is the key modifier on top of the main component, strength of schedule. Wins and losses are not a factor, as evidenced by the high number of losses sustained by most of the top 10 teams.

Your analysis falsely assumes each goal is weighted equally and that a team's GD is all that matters in determining a team's ranking.

USCL doesn't determine rankings based on straight GD the same way a tournament uses GD to determine which teams advance to a playoff.

USCL assigns a different point value to each goal based on the strength of each opponent played.

Which means a loss to a lower ranked team does matter when it comes to a team's overall ranking.

I'll make this easier with an example: Hero's lost by two to Coppermine but was awarded .08 points toward its ranking score because USCL expected Hero's to lose by that GD since Coppermine is ranked higher. Yet Hero's beat Pride by one and lost a proportionally higher share of points (-2.64) toward its ranking score because, based on Pride's performance, USCL predicted Hero's would win by a much wider margin.

Losses to lower ranked teams put greater negative pressure on a team's ranking score. So the original statement stands - had any of Hero's tight wins been losses, they would have dropped in the rankings because USCL would have deducted a higher percentage of points from their ranking score, which would have resulted in a lower overall ranking score.

Dude, it's strength of schedule and goal differential. They don't deduct a higher percentage of points.

Re-read the example given. If you can’t understand it, I can’t help you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the underlying point is that Hero’s is beatable. Their ranking would have dropped had any one of those one goal games gone the other way. An upset seems within reach of any top 20 team that shows up.

That's not really how the rankings work. It’s all about goal diffirential, You starrt getting 25-30 games played, a few goal swing barely moves the needle.

That’s not at all how it works, actually. Goal differentials have nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with a team’s record and strength of schedule:

“Using only game results, US Club Lax's algorithm computes an overall average performance rating for teams based on how teams perform against other teams and the strength of a team’s opponents.”

Read more: https://www.usclublax.com/faq

There is no reference to goal differentials playing any role whatsoever in assessing rankings on the US Club Lax website.

A Hero’s loss to any of the one goal games against opponents of significantly lower strength, those above top 10, would have resulted in a lower ranking.

No personal dog in this fight, but you are very wrong. Confidently, but obviously, wrong.

Open the tab "ratings math" after you click through to the record of any ranked team. You will note that goal differential is the key modifier on top of the main component, strength of schedule. Wins and losses are not a factor, as evidenced by the high number of losses sustained by most of the top 10 teams.

Your analysis falsely assumes each goal is weighted equally and that a team's GD is all that matters in determining a team's ranking.

USCL doesn't determine rankings based on straight GD the same way a tournament uses GD to determine which teams advance to a playoff.

USCL assigns a different point value to each goal based on the strength of each opponent played.

Which means a loss to a lower ranked team does matter when it comes to a team's overall ranking.

I'll make this easier with an example: Hero's lost by two to Coppermine but was awarded .08 points toward its ranking score because USCL expected Hero's to lose by that GD since Coppermine is ranked higher. Yet Hero's beat Pride by one and lost a proportionally higher share of points (-2.64) toward its ranking score because, based on Pride's performance, USCL predicted Hero's would win by a much wider margin.

Losses to lower ranked teams put greater negative pressure on a team's ranking score. So the original statement stands - had any of Hero's tight wins been losses, they would have dropped in the rankings because USCL would have deducted a higher percentage of points from their ranking score, which would have resulted in a lower overall ranking score.

Dude, it's strength of schedule and goal differential. They don't deduct a higher percentage of points.

Re-read the example given. If you can’t understand it, I can’t help you.

Re-read the actual rankings and compare the two columns, "Sched" and "AGD" which add up to the rating, and the "Rating Math" columns--GD, Opp Rating, Points, and +/-. For most teams, despite your Ptolemaic ellipse of an analysis, the +/- average has zero impact. For a few teams, like Pride and MDU, it has 0.01 of an impact on the final rating on a 100 point scale. So not zero, but very near it.

For an individual game, the +/- is interesting as an indicator of over/under-performance. For the season long rating, it is not statistically relevant. It is simply strength of schedule plus average goal differential.

Last effort to help you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You're all crazy! I love it. Especially the idiot who doesn't read the notes at the bottom of the US Club Lax page that says "The average goal differential (GD) should equal this team's AGD from the rankings page."

Another I-know-everything-dad with out a modicum of humility. One Google and share link! You 28 parents are all an inch deep on everything.

Yeah, why can’t the rest of us be like this humble guy? Not like he flies off the cuff and calls people names. You are right at home here, PP. You just don’t realize it.

Too true! This is the greatest with the bonus they my kid isn't a 28 and this is for pure amusement.

You're still an idiot!

Humble and a rapier-like wit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the underlying point is that Hero’s is beatable. Their ranking would have dropped had any one of those one goal games gone the other way. An upset seems within reach of any top 20 team that shows up.

That's not really how the rankings work. It’s all about goal diffirential, You starrt getting 25-30 games played, a few goal swing barely moves the needle.

That’s not at all how it works, actually. Goal differentials have nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with a team’s record and strength of schedule:

“Using only game results, US Club Lax's algorithm computes an overall average performance rating for teams based on how teams perform against other teams and the strength of a team’s opponents.”

Read more: https://www.usclublax.com/faq

There is no reference to goal differentials playing any role whatsoever in assessing rankings on the US Club Lax website.

A Hero’s loss to any of the one goal games against opponents of significantly lower strength, those above top 10, would have resulted in a lower ranking.

No personal dog in this fight, but you are very wrong. Confidently, but obviously, wrong.

Open the tab "ratings math" after you click through to the record of any ranked team. You will note that goal differential is the key modifier on top of the main component, strength of schedule. Wins and losses are not a factor, as evidenced by the high number of losses sustained by most of the top 10 teams.

Your analysis falsely assumes each goal is weighted equally and that a team's GD is all that matters in determining a team's ranking.

USCL doesn't determine rankings based on straight GD the same way a tournament uses GD to determine which teams advance to a playoff.

USCL assigns a different point value to each goal based on the strength of each opponent played.

Which means a loss to a lower ranked team does matter when it comes to a team's overall ranking.

I'll make this easier with an example: Hero's lost by two to Coppermine but was awarded .08 points toward its ranking score because USCL expected Hero's to lose by that GD since Coppermine is ranked higher. Yet Hero's beat Pride by one and lost a proportionally higher share of points (-2.64) toward its ranking score because, based on Pride's performance, USCL predicted Hero's would win by a much wider margin.

Losses to lower ranked teams put greater negative pressure on a team's ranking score. So the original statement stands - had any of Hero's tight wins been losses, they would have dropped in the rankings because USCL would have deducted a higher percentage of points from their ranking score, which would have resulted in a lower overall ranking score.

Dude, it's strength of schedule and goal differential. They don't deduct a higher percentage of points.

Re-read the example given. If you can’t understand it, I can’t help you.

Re-read the actual rankings and compare the two columns, "Sched" and "AGD" which add up to the rating, and the "Rating Math" columns--GD, Opp Rating, Points, and +/-. For most teams, despite your Ptolemaic ellipse of an analysis, the +/- average has zero impact. For a few teams, like Pride and MDU, it has 0.01 of an impact on the final rating on a 100 point scale. So not zero, but very near it.

For an individual game, the +/- is interesting as an indicator of over/under-performance. For the season long rating, it is not statistically relevant. It is simply strength of schedule plus average goal differential.

Last effort to help you.

Cool. So when one or more of those one-goal teams upsets Hero’s next year, by your logic, their rank will remain unchanged at #3. Got it. Pin this post and let’s come back to it. Also .. if you talk the way you write you should consider taking those marbles out of your mouth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the underlying point is that Hero’s is beatable. Their ranking would have dropped had any one of those one goal games gone the other way. An upset seems within reach of any top 20 team that shows up.

That's not really how the rankings work. It’s all about goal diffirential, You starrt getting 25-30 games played, a few goal swing barely moves the needle.

That’s not at all how it works, actually. Goal differentials have nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with a team’s record and strength of schedule:

“Using only game results, US Club Lax's algorithm computes an overall average performance rating for teams based on how teams perform against other teams and the strength of a team’s opponents.”

Read more: https://www.usclublax.com/faq

There is no reference to goal differentials playing any role whatsoever in assessing rankings on the US Club Lax website.

A Hero’s loss to any of the one goal games against opponents of significantly lower strength, those above top 10, would have resulted in a lower ranking.

No personal dog in this fight, but you are very wrong. Confidently, but obviously, wrong.

Open the tab "ratings math" after you click through to the record of any ranked team. You will note that goal differential is the key modifier on top of the main component, strength of schedule. Wins and losses are not a factor, as evidenced by the high number of losses sustained by most of the top 10 teams.

Your analysis falsely assumes each goal is weighted equally and that a team's GD is all that matters in determining a team's ranking.

USCL doesn't determine rankings based on straight GD the same way a tournament uses GD to determine which teams advance to a playoff.

USCL assigns a different point value to each goal based on the strength of each opponent played.

Which means a loss to a lower ranked team does matter when it comes to a team's overall ranking.

I'll make this easier with an example: Hero's lost by two to Coppermine but was awarded .08 points toward its ranking score because USCL expected Hero's to lose by that GD since Coppermine is ranked higher. Yet Hero's beat Pride by one and lost a proportionally higher share of points (-2.64) toward its ranking score because, based on Pride's performance, USCL predicted Hero's would win by a much wider margin.

Losses to lower ranked teams put greater negative pressure on a team's ranking score. So the original statement stands - had any of Hero's tight wins been losses, they would have dropped in the rankings because USCL would have deducted a higher percentage of points from their ranking score, which would have resulted in a lower overall ranking score.

Dude, it's strength of schedule and goal differential. They don't deduct a higher percentage of points.

Re-read the example given. If you can’t understand it, I can’t help you.

Re-read the actual rankings and compare the two columns, "Sched" and "AGD" which add up to the rating, and the "Rating Math" columns--GD, Opp Rating, Points, and +/-. For most teams, despite your Ptolemaic ellipse of an analysis, the +/- average has zero impact. For a few teams, like Pride and MDU, it has 0.01 of an impact on the final rating on a 100 point scale. So not zero, but very near it.

For an individual game, the +/- is interesting as an indicator of over/under-performance. For the season long rating, it is not statistically relevant. It is simply strength of schedule plus average goal differential.

Last effort to help you.

Cool. So when one or more of those one-goal teams upsets Hero’s next year, by your logic, their rank will remain unchanged at #3. Got it. Pin this post and let’s come back to it. Also .. if you talk the way you write you should consider taking those marbles out of your mouth.

Upsets happened already this year! Urban Elite beat Coppermine, a -5.69 game, and their #1 ranking didn't budge. M&D lost to LI Liberty by 4 goals, a -6.67 game vs expectations, and stayed right where they were at 4th. Coppermine BEAT Eagle Stix in the NGLL Championship, but only by one, so Eagle Stix actually jumped them in the rankings from #2 to #1 because their strength of schedule went up more, and that's the main component. Strength of schedule and average goal differential, those are the factors.

I'm sorry you don't follow this stuff closely and chose to quadruple down on your sophomoric logic, but if "pinning this post" to come back to it was your last, best salvo, I'm afraid it's not going to be borne out.

[Anonymous]

You continue to miss the point but that’s expected at this point. Coppermine torches just about everyone by a sizable margin and a fluke loss to a low ranked team won’t change their ranking. This started with a statement about the possibility / likelihood of Hero’s dropping in the rankings if they continue to underperform against low ranked teams, because (wait for it … ) if they lose to them they’ll receive fewer points toward their ranking score. But that logic is lost on you since it appears Hero’s could wet the bed all year next year and still somehow magically maintain their current ranking. Thumbs up and stay mad bro!