Tempted to move to great falls from McLean as prices seem to be falling

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like GF is good if you work in Reston or Tysons.

I do expect prices to continue to slide, however, as places need to capture a decent share of high-paid DC workers to maintain price levels as high as GF's historical levels. It doesn't matter if a handful of GF residents live close enough to catch a bus on Route 7 to a Metro station. For the most part, GF is the epitome of a car-dependent suburb with limited access to public transportation.

The distance to the middle and high schools is a negative, too. Imagine how much more convenient it would be if Langley were near 193 and River Bend Road, rather than near the Arlington County border. Unfortunately, there is only one high school in FCPS west of the Beltway and north of the Toll Road - Herndon.

But GF also works for those of us who cannot afford the $1 million + homes in Arlington/Falls Church/McLean/Vienna. I looked in all those areas last year and could afford hardly any of them; the few homes that were in my budget were old, old teardowns or homes that needed major renovations -- and these were still at the top of my budget. Great Falls was the only place relatively close that offered homes with the features I wanted, good schools, and under $800k. Personally, I don't really care what the market is doing right now; we have the home we want, and do not regret it in the least.

+1000

If you can have a palatial estate in Great Falls, with 2+ acres of land, or nothing - guess which one I choose.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like GF is good if you work in Reston or Tysons.

I do expect prices to continue to slide, however, as places need to capture a decent share of high-paid DC workers to maintain price levels as high as GF's historical levels. It doesn't matter if a handful of GF residents live close enough to catch a bus on Route 7 to a Metro station. For the most part, GF is the epitome of a car-dependent suburb with limited access to public transportation.

The distance to the middle and high schools is a negative, too. Imagine how much more convenient it would be if Langley were near 193 and River Bend Road, rather than near the Arlington County border. Unfortunately, there is only one high school in FCPS west of the Beltway and north of the Toll Road - Herndon.

But GF also works for those of us who cannot afford the $1 million + homes in Arlington/Falls Church/McLean/Vienna. I looked in all those areas last year and could afford hardly any of them; the few homes that were in my budget were old, old teardowns or homes that needed major renovations -- and these were still at the top of my budget. Great Falls was the only place relatively close that offered homes with the features I wanted, good schools, and under $800k. Personally, I don't really care what the market is doing right now; we have the home we want, and do not regret it in the least.

Great that you found a house you like. But people would not be talking about houses in GF below $800K as a less expensive alternative to Arlington, etc., unless prices there were coming down, and that's what OP was asking about in the first place.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like GF is good if you work in Reston or Tysons.

I do expect prices to continue to slide, however, as places need to capture a decent share of high-paid DC workers to maintain price levels as high as GF's historical levels. It doesn't matter if a handful of GF residents live close enough to catch a bus on Route 7 to a Metro station. For the most part, GF is the epitome of a car-dependent suburb with limited access to public transportation.

The distance to the middle and high schools is a negative, too. Imagine how much more convenient it would be if Langley were near 193 and River Bend Road, rather than near the Arlington County border. Unfortunately, there is only one high school in FCPS west of the Beltway and north of the Toll Road - Herndon.

But GF also works for those of us who cannot afford the $1 million + homes in Arlington/Falls Church/McLean/Vienna. I looked in all those areas last year and could afford hardly any of them; the few homes that were in my budget were old, old teardowns or homes that needed major renovations -- and these were still at the top of my budget. Great Falls was the only place relatively close that offered homes with the features I wanted, good schools, and under $800k. Personally, I don't really care what the market is doing right now; we have the home we want, and do not regret it in the least.

Great that you found a house you like. But people would not be talking about houses in GF below $800K as a less expensive alternative to Arlington, etc., unless prices there were coming down, and that's what OP was asking about in the first place.

I will bet GF will eventually go the way of Mclean, Vienna and the like: as the older folks sell their homes and the available open land becomes less available, new builds will go up in place of these old homes, prices will increase, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like GF is good if you work in Reston or Tysons.

I do expect prices to continue to slide, however, as places need to capture a decent share of high-paid DC workers to maintain price levels as high as GF's historical levels. It doesn't matter if a handful of GF residents live close enough to catch a bus on Route 7 to a Metro station. For the most part, GF is the epitome of a car-dependent suburb with limited access to public transportation.

The distance to the middle and high schools is a negative, too. Imagine how much more convenient it would be if Langley were near 193 and River Bend Road, rather than near the Arlington County border. Unfortunately, there is only one high school in FCPS west of the Beltway and north of the Toll Road - Herndon.

But GF also works for those of us who cannot afford the $1 million + homes in Arlington/Falls Church/McLean/Vienna. I looked in all those areas last year and could afford hardly any of them; the few homes that were in my budget were old, old teardowns or homes that needed major renovations -- and these were still at the top of my budget. Great Falls was the only place relatively close that offered homes with the features I wanted, good schools, and under $800k. Personally, I don't really care what the market is doing right now; we have the home we want, and do not regret it in the least.

Great that you found a house you like. But people would not be talking about houses in GF below $800K as a less expensive alternative to Arlington, etc., unless prices there were coming down, and that's what OP was asking about in the first place.

I will bet GF will eventually go the way of Mclean, Vienna and the like: as the older folks sell their homes and the available open land becomes less available, new builds will go up in place of these old homes, prices will increase, etc.

I don't think you can compare inside the beltway with GF. Not the far out portions at least. Take a drive to River Bend park sometime - it's like 30 minutes from McLean.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like GF is good if you work in Reston or Tysons.

I do expect prices to continue to slide, however, as places need to capture a decent share of high-paid DC workers to maintain price levels as high as GF's historical levels. It doesn't matter if a handful of GF residents live close enough to catch a bus on Route 7 to a Metro station. For the most part, GF is the epitome of a car-dependent suburb with limited access to public transportation.

The distance to the middle and high schools is a negative, too. Imagine how much more convenient it would be if Langley were near 193 and River Bend Road, rather than near the Arlington County border. Unfortunately, there is only one high school in FCPS west of the Beltway and north of the Toll Road - Herndon.

HAHAHAHAHHAAA!!! Have you not heard about all the high tech west of the beltway????

It's less like Silicon Valley and more like the back-office operations you find in Jersey City or Schaumburg. Good jobs that typically pay salaries that make Ashburn and Chantilly affordable, not Great Falls at its current prices. That's why there is so much inventory there and why, insofar Great Falls is being repositioned as a residential area for those who work in Tysons or points west, prices are coming down.

The instiutions that created the demand for the 1.5 - 2.0M homes in Great Falls are either gone or shadows of what they were. Financial Services - Freddie Mac was a huge driver of employment and cash/option compensation. Bankruptcy wiped out all of that stock and options, and it is not generating the kind of compensation it once did. Tech bubble companies - AOL, Microstrategy, etc - are either gone, or much more mature and not spreading around cash like they did. Government contractors have been in a cycle of cuts since sequestration. There were at one point entire neighborhoods in Great Falls of folks who hit it big at AOL. 15 years on those folks have either downsized or are struggling to stay in their houses. It seems that if you give a purchasing manager a $2M option windfall, their skills and compensation are still that or a purchasing manager. So little by little they spend their windfall and then they need to move.

[Anonymous]

As a slight tangent, would someone please explain to me why these houses have a 22066 Great Falls address, yet they are in Loudoun County? The subdivision is called Great Falls Forest. They go to Loudoun schools (and the price reflects that); I just don't understand why they have a 22066 zipcode.

http://homes.longandfoster.com/Real-Estate/PropertyDetails.aspx?11833-BROCKMAN-LN-GREAT-FALLS-VA-22066&mlsCompanyID=2&mlsNumber=LO9607066#divNeighbourhoodInfo

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like GF is good if you work in Reston or Tysons.

I do expect prices to continue to slide, however, as places need to capture a decent share of high-paid DC workers to maintain price levels as high as GF's historical levels. It doesn't matter if a handful of GF residents live close enough to catch a bus on Route 7 to a Metro station. For the most part, GF is the epitome of a car-dependent suburb with limited access to public transportation.

The distance to the middle and high schools is a negative, too. Imagine how much more convenient it would be if Langley were near 193 and River Bend Road, rather than near the Arlington County border. Unfortunately, there is only one high school in FCPS west of the Beltway and north of the Toll Road - Herndon.

HAHAHAHAHHAAA!!! Have you not heard about all the high tech west of the beltway????

It's less like Silicon Valley and more like the back-office operations you find in Jersey City or Schaumburg. Good jobs that typically pay salaries that make Ashburn and Chantilly affordable, not Great Falls at its current prices. That's why there is so much inventory there and why, insofar Great Falls is being repositioned as a residential area for those who work in Tysons or points west, prices are coming down.

The instiutions that created the demand for the 1.5 - 2.0M homes in Great Falls are either gone or shadows of what they were. Financial Services - Freddie Mac was a huge driver of employment and cash/option compensation. Bankruptcy wiped out all of that stock and options, and it is not generating the kind of compensation it once did. Tech bubble companies - AOL, Microstrategy, etc - are either gone, or much more mature and not spreading around cash like they did. Government contractors have been in a cycle of cuts since sequestration. There were at one point entire neighborhoods in Great Falls of folks who hit it big at AOL. 15 years on those folks have either downsized or are struggling to stay in their houses. It seems that if you give a purchasing manager a $2M option windfall, their skills and compensation are still that or a purchasing manager. So little by little they spend their windfall and then they need to move.

Yes, because everyone in this situation is as you dictate - not reality, at all. Maybe they invested their "windfall" (much more than you think, BTW), and maybe they have family money, inheritances (plural) or other investments you know nothing about.

But since you know everyone and every single person's situation, I suppose reality is not a possibility, in your tiny mind. You think so, so it must be true.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As a slight tangent, would someone please explain to me why these houses have a 22066 Great Falls address, yet they are in Loudoun County? The subdivision is called Great Falls Forest. They go to Loudoun schools (and the price reflects that); I just don't understand why they have a 22066 zipcode.

http://homes.longandfoster.com/Real-Estate/PropertyDetails.aspx?11833-BROCKMAN-LN-GREAT-FALLS-VA-22066&mlsCompanyID=2&mlsNumber=LO9607066#divNeighbourhoodInfo

The Zip code crosses the county line. The Post Office is smart enough not to send mail all the way down Seneca from Loudoun to deliver. Loudoun County school buses make that run every day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like GF is good if you work in Reston or Tysons.

I do expect prices to continue to slide, however, as places need to capture a decent share of high-paid DC workers to maintain price levels as high as GF's historical levels. It doesn't matter if a handful of GF residents live close enough to catch a bus on Route 7 to a Metro station. For the most part, GF is the epitome of a car-dependent suburb with limited access to public transportation.

The distance to the middle and high schools is a negative, too. Imagine how much more convenient it would be if Langley were near 193 and River Bend Road, rather than near the Arlington County border. Unfortunately, there is only one high school in FCPS west of the Beltway and north of the Toll Road - Herndon.

HAHAHAHAHHAAA!!! Have you not heard about all the high tech west of the beltway????

It's less like Silicon Valley and more like the back-office operations you find in Jersey City or Schaumburg. Good jobs that typically pay salaries that make Ashburn and Chantilly affordable, not Great Falls at its current prices. That's why there is so much inventory there and why, insofar Great Falls is being repositioned as a residential area for those who work in Tysons or points west, prices are coming down.

The instiutions that created the demand for the 1.5 - 2.0M homes in Great Falls are either gone or shadows of what they were. Financial Services - Freddie Mac was a huge driver of employment and cash/option compensation. Bankruptcy wiped out all of that stock and options, and it is not generating the kind of compensation it once did. Tech bubble companies - AOL, Microstrategy, etc - are either gone, or much more mature and not spreading around cash like they did. Government contractors have been in a cycle of cuts since sequestration. There were at one point entire neighborhoods in Great Falls of folks who hit it big at AOL. 15 years on those folks have either downsized or are struggling to stay in their houses. It seems that if you give a purchasing manager a $2M option windfall, their skills and compensation are still that or a purchasing manager. So little by little they spend their windfall and then they need to move.

Yes, because everyone in this situation is as you dictate - not reality, at all. Maybe they invested their "windfall" (much more than you think, BTW), and maybe they have family money, inheritances (plural) or other investments you know nothing about.

But since you know everyone and every single person's situation, I suppose reality is not a possibility, in your tiny mind. You think so, so it must be true.

You must be correct - the falling property values are just a big conspiracy. There cannot be market forces at play.

[Anonymous]

What is the deal with the very low enrollment at great falls elementary. Will they eventually just combine it with another school? Or is this a sacred cow?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like GF is good if you work in Reston or Tysons.

I do expect prices to continue to slide, however, as places need to capture a decent share of high-paid DC workers to maintain price levels as high as GF's historical levels. It doesn't matter if a handful of GF residents live close enough to catch a bus on Route 7 to a Metro station. For the most part, GF is the epitome of a car-dependent suburb with limited access to public transportation.

The distance to the middle and high schools is a negative, too. Imagine how much more convenient it would be if Langley were near 193 and River Bend Road, rather than near the Arlington County border. Unfortunately, there is only one high school in FCPS west of the Beltway and north of the Toll Road - Herndon.

But GF also works for those of us who cannot afford the $1 million + homes in Arlington/Falls Church/McLean/Vienna. I looked in all those areas last year and could afford hardly any of them; the few homes that were in my budget were old, old teardowns or homes that needed major renovations -- and these were still at the top of my budget. Great Falls was the only place relatively close that offered homes with the features I wanted, good schools, and under $800k. Personally, I don't really care what the market is doing right now; we have the home we want, and do not regret it in the least.

Great that you found a house you like. But people would not be talking about houses in GF below $800K as a less expensive alternative to Arlington, etc., unless prices there were coming down, and that's what OP was asking about in the first place.

I will bet GF will eventually go the way of Mclean, Vienna and the like: as the older folks sell their homes and the available open land becomes less available, new builds will go up in place of these old homes, prices will increase, etc.

Except...due to your limited knowledge of RE development, you cannot just tear down and rebuild in GF as you can elsewhere (Arl, vienna, FC) because GF DOES NOT have public utilities (sewer, water, particularly) which greatly inhibit redeveloping old homes due to environmental requirements. For example, for new homes an old septic drainfield cannot be reused and the state new requires 100% reserve area for new drainfields. new wells must also be drilled and they must be a minumum of 100 ft from the new drainfield. Even with 2-acre lots, this is a challenge - believe me. You will never see the tear down and redo activity in GF that you see in Vienna, Arl, and FC now. This will limit growth as GF runs out of virgin land and with no new construction, prices will not be heading up...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What is the deal with the very low enrollment at great falls elementary. Will they eventually just combine it with another school? Or is this a sacred cow?

FCPS projections are often wrong, but they have the enrollment at GFES increasing by about 65 students over the next five years, so it may just be the neighborhood turning over. There are quite a few elementary schools with fewer kids than GFES, so there is no reason to think FCPS would combine it with Forestville or Colvin Run. It was overcrowding at Forestville and Great Falls that originally led to the decision to build Colvin Run.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like GF is good if you work in Reston or Tysons.

I do expect prices to continue to slide, however, as places need to capture a decent share of high-paid DC workers to maintain price levels as high as GF's historical levels. It doesn't matter if a handful of GF residents live close enough to catch a bus on Route 7 to a Metro station. For the most part, GF is the epitome of a car-dependent suburb with limited access to public transportation.

The distance to the middle and high schools is a negative, too. Imagine how much more convenient it would be if Langley were near 193 and River Bend Road, rather than near the Arlington County border. Unfortunately, there is only one high school in FCPS west of the Beltway and north of the Toll Road - Herndon.

But GF also works for those of us who cannot afford the $1 million + homes in Arlington/Falls Church/McLean/Vienna. I looked in all those areas last year and could afford hardly any of them; the few homes that were in my budget were old, old teardowns or homes that needed major renovations -- and these were still at the top of my budget. Great Falls was the only place relatively close that offered homes with the features I wanted, good schools, and under $800k. Personally, I don't really care what the market is doing right now; we have the home we want, and do not regret it in the least.

Great that you found a house you like. But people would not be talking about houses in GF below $800K as a less expensive alternative to Arlington, etc., unless prices there were coming down, and that's what OP was asking about in the first place.

I will bet GF will eventually go the way of Mclean, Vienna and the like: as the older folks sell their homes and the available open land becomes less available, new builds will go up in place of these old homes, prices will increase, etc.

Except...due to your limited knowledge of RE development, you cannot just tear down and rebuild in GF as you can elsewhere (Arl, vienna, FC) because GF DOES NOT have public utilities (sewer, water, particularly) which greatly inhibit redeveloping old homes due to environmental requirements. For example, for new homes an old septic drainfield cannot be reused and the state new requires 100% reserve area for new drainfields. new wells must also be drilled and they must be a minumum of 100 ft from the new drainfield. Even with 2-acre lots, this is a challenge - believe me. You will never see the tear down and redo activity in GF that you see in Vienna, Arl, and FC now. This will limit growth as GF runs out of virgin land and with no new construction, prices will not be heading up...

It will just be like Burke and West Springfield, with most of the homes built in the 80s and 90s as opposed to the 70s, but with bigger and more expensive homes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a slight tangent, would someone please explain to me why these houses have a 22066 Great Falls address, yet they are in Loudoun County? The subdivision is called Great Falls Forest. They go to Loudoun schools (and the price reflects that); I just don't understand why they have a 22066 zipcode.

http://homes.longandfoster.com/Real-Estate/PropertyDetails.aspx?11833-BROCKMAN-LN-GREAT-FALLS-VA-22066&mlsCompanyID=2&mlsNumber=LO9607066#divNeighbourhoodInfo

The Zip code crosses the county line. The Post Office is smart enough not to send mail all the way down Seneca from Loudoun to deliver. Loudoun County school buses make that run every day.

Thank you. I didn't know zip codes could cross county lines. To bring this back to the thread, it's amazing to me what a difference in price a school makes. These Loudoun houses are 4 bed, 2.5 bath on 1/4 acre, and seem to compare to the Holly Knoll subdivision just down the street -- 4 bed, 2.5 bath on 1/2 acre. That extra 1/4 acre and Langley school district adds at least $200K! I haven't been in person; maybe there are more differences. Right now it looks like the school. I'd be very upset if I bought in western GF for Langley, and then it got redistricted and the house went down that much.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a slight tangent, would someone please explain to me why these houses have a 22066 Great Falls address, yet they are in Loudoun County? The subdivision is called Great Falls Forest. They go to Loudoun schools (and the price reflects that); I just don't understand why they have a 22066 zipcode.

http://homes.longandfoster.com/Real-Estate/PropertyDetails.aspx?11833-BROCKMAN-LN-GREAT-FALLS-VA-22066&mlsCompanyID=2&mlsNumber=LO9607066#divNeighbourhoodInfo

The Zip code crosses the county line. The Post Office is smart enough not to send mail all the way down Seneca from Loudoun to deliver. Loudoun County school buses make that run every day.

Thank you. I didn't know zip codes could cross county lines. To bring this back to the thread, it's amazing to me what a difference in price a school makes. These Loudoun houses are 4 bed, 2.5 bath on 1/4 acre, and seem to compare to the Holly Knoll subdivision just down the street -- 4 bed, 2.5 bath on 1/2 acre. That extra 1/4 acre and Langley school district adds at least $200K! I haven't been in person; maybe there are more differences. Right now it looks like the school. I'd be very upset if I bought in western GF for Langley, and then it got redistricted and the house went down that much.

You seem to be assuming it's all about Langley. Property taxes are higher in Loudoun, and that impacts the cost of ownership.