Is Real Change Even Possible?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tell me what are the job outcomes for your AP students? Maybe kids should be focused more on learning life skills as they go to HS. Going to college is no longer the meal ticket to a good job.

Not saying no rigorous education but it’s not the end all be all anymore. Going to a great college also doesn’t translate to a great job.

The job market is tough, but not going to college isn’t the solution. What job would you expect someone to get without a degree?

DP but there are tons of jobs for kids with trade skills in welding, electrician, machining et al.

WSJ just ran an article about some HSs opening large VoTech shops and getting funding from private industry because there are so many unfilled trade jobs (which blows a hole in the argument that there aren’t good factory jobs).

Every kid in the welding class gets an internship and is offered a FT job with most starting around $80k.

Now, you can’t just go get a job at a car company with zero skills like you could in the 1950s, but you can acquire these skills for little to no cost.

The WSJ can talk until they’re blue in the face but the 2 million dollar lifetime earnings premium to college graduation is a stubborn reality.

Also, invariably, people who point to the trades have never actually worked in a trade. Your body is mostly broken by the time you hit 40 in many if not most trades.

This. People were okay taking manual labor jobs at a time when life expectancy was shorter and when it was feasible to get a pension after say 20 years of service. You might never be rich but around the time you physically couldn't do the job anymore, you could retire and live okay.

Cost of living is much higher and people live much longer. Social security kicks in later and the vast majority of jobs in the trades don't have pensions. What happens when someone without a college degree is simply physically no longer able to climb up on roofs or get under cars on a daily basis, and they have no pension and social security is at least 15 years away? What do they do in the meantime. Another thing that used to happen is that businesses would take care of their own a bit and someone in this position might be kept on in a management position to help train younger workers and oversee jobs. But now these businesses have been corporatized or bought up by private equity, and someone like that is seen as dead weight that is not sufficiently profitable. Out you go.

If my kid wanted to go into a trade, I'd still suggest they get at least an associates degree in business so that they have a way to segue from the labor side to management, start their own business, etc. If they wanted to go straight into a trade, I'd help them find night or other PT programs to ensure they got some kind of academic training in a practical field that would complement that work. My brother worked construction in his 20s while getting a degree -- it is tough for a while but in the end puts you in a better position than many other college grads because you have more money and you have real work experience.

I want my kids thinking of options for when they are 35, 45, 55. I don't care if they have white collar jobs but I don't want them to be short sighted and then have major regrets when they want to buy a house, when they blow out their knee, when their own kid has college aspirations.

First, very few jobs these days have a pension...in fact almost none. We have 401k accounts which nearly every company provides regardless of your job function

Second, there are many trade jobs working at large companies that come with benefits, 401k retirement options, etc. Those companies also allow the junior welder to move up through the organization and become management of the welding/trade groups, so no you aren't having to perform the same physical tasks at 50 as when you were 20.

The WSJ article wasn't showing kids going to work for some mom & pop operation, but some large companies (and some small companies too).

There are fewer than 500,000 welding jobs available in the US. Same with plumbers (who by the way generally don't go work for major corporations but for small mom and pop shops or they work as independent contractors). For those welding jobs, how many do you think are managerial level? Maybe 100k? What happens to everyone else?

There are 3.6 million teaching jobs in the US, and that may be low as there is a reported teacher shortage. Most teaching jobs come with guaranteed benefits after a certain number of years of teaching, including retirement benefits. And teaching has a flat hierarchy. If you can teach, you likely can get a job in a classroom somewhere. Many districts also do pay increases for seniority, which means you don't have to earn a management position to make more money -- you just stick it out and get step ups.

And teaching is far less susceptible to layoffs from automation. And teaching, despite all the many downsides, is also a lot more comfortable to do when you are 50+ -- indoors, better air quality, lower physical expectations.

I'd take a career in teaching over a career in welding if my goal is economic stability, any day of the week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tell me what are the job outcomes for your AP students? Maybe kids should be focused more on learning life skills as they go to HS. Going to college is no longer the meal ticket to a good job.

Not saying no rigorous education but it’s not the end all be all anymore. Going to a great college also doesn’t translate to a great job.

The job market is tough, but not going to college isn’t the solution. What job would you expect someone to get without a degree?

DP but there are tons of jobs for kids with trade skills in welding, electrician, machining et al.

WSJ just ran an article about some HSs opening large VoTech shops and getting funding from private industry because there are so many unfilled trade jobs (which blows a hole in the argument that there aren’t good factory jobs).

Every kid in the welding class gets an internship and is offered a FT job with most starting around $80k.

Now, you can’t just go get a job at a car company with zero skills like you could in the 1950s, but you can acquire these skills for little to no cost.

The WSJ can talk until they’re blue in the face but the 2 million dollar lifetime earnings premium to college graduation is a stubborn reality.

Also, invariably, people who point to the trades have never actually worked in a trade. Your body is mostly broken by the time you hit 40 in many if not most trades.

Depends on your college major and you also have to look at ROI.

The average English major from any college ranked probably 25+ doesn't have anything approaching the $2MM lifetime earnings premium. Many if not most have a negative college ROI. Different story for the engineering major.

Even English majors have a work advantage over someone without a degree. An English major can apply for a management position because they have a BA, in many organizations you will be immediately weeded out without that degree.

Many English majors wind up in teaching, a profession with a lot of job securities and terrific retirement benefits. A pension at 50 or 55 is worth way more than whatever the degree cost.

People crap all over English majors but the truth is that even an English major is more employable, with greater flexibility in shifting labor markets and more longterm earning potential, than someone with no college degree at all. Get that English degree from a state school with no loans, and even better. College degrees continue to be worth a lot in our society, even if not from top schools and even if not from the hottest majors. It is naive to think otherwise.

Except what you write isn't true.

Go read this study (which is one of many) https://freopp.org/whitepapers/does-college-pay-off-a-comprehensive-return-on-investment-analysis/

To highlight:

The findings show that college is worth it more often than not, but there are key exceptions. ROI for the median bachelor’s degree is $160,000, but that median belies a wide range of outcomes for individual programs. Bachelor’s degrees in engineering, computer science, nursing, and economics tend to have a payoff of $500,000 or more. Other majors, including fine arts, education, English, and psychology, usually have a smaller payoff — or none at all.

Alternatives to the traditional four-year degree produce varied results. Undergraduate certificates in the technical trades tend to have a stronger ROI than the median bachelor’s degree. However, many other subbaccalaureate credentials — including associate degrees in liberal arts or general education — have no payoff at all. Field of study is the paramount consideration at both the baccalaureate and subbaccalaureate levels.

All sectors of higher education contain negative-ROI programs. Nearly a quarter of bachelor’s degree programs have negative ROI, along with 43 percent of associate degree programs. Master’s degree programs, with their high costs and uneven benefits, are among the worst performers: nearly half fail to pay off.

About 70 percent of undergraduate programs yield a positive return on investment. While that means higher education is still a decent bet on average, a large minority of programs do not pay off. Around 23 percent of four-year degree programs have a negative return on investment, along with 43 percent of two-year degree programs. (These figures, along with all others in the report unless otherwise indicated, are weighted by enrollment.)

Undergraduate certificates in the technical trades — which include vehicle maintenance and repair, precision metal working, HVAC technology, and electrical and power transmission installation — are more lucrative than a bachelor’s degree. Median ROI for the technical trades is $313,000, compared to just $160,000 for the median bachelor’s degree. Two-year degrees in nursing and other health professions also boast a strong median ROI of $224,000.

The analysis here is incredibly weak. For instance the ROI by major is based on median earnings. This results in major skewing upwards for degrees with a higher ceiling for and much lower medians for degree that have lower ceilings. It's unsurprising that an education degree shows the lowest median ROI for career earnings because there is a low ceiling on teacher pay relative to other jobs. However, teachers have very high job security and tend to have lucrative benefits that don't kick in until their careers are over. These factors, which are real economic benefits that help ensure that grads with education degrees stay employed even in down economies and secure economic stability into retirement, are not represented in the chart at all. It's also not adjusting for cost of living -- there are people teaching in rural areas who make shockingly little. However, they live in places where it's possible to buy a home for 70k, so it actually might be okay. Whereas people in engineering, computer science, and economics, are likely to be required to live near major cities where cost of living is much higher (and thus so are salaries) -- the median ROI for these jobs is of course much higher but may only result in a moderately higher quality of life because of COL issues.

You might read that article and conclude that everyone should go get a degree in engineering or economics, and if they can't they should just go into the trades. The reality is way more complicated, but that report was written with a clear agenda so those complications are ignored.

So produce your own citation with your supported conclusions to refute it.

Love how people on DCUM when provided some in-depth research just come up with their own unsubstantiated positions to try to argue the opposite.

BTW, the group that put out the study is The Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, a nonpartisan think tank.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tell me what are the job outcomes for your AP students? Maybe kids should be focused more on learning life skills as they go to HS. Going to college is no longer the meal ticket to a good job.

Not saying no rigorous education but it’s not the end all be all anymore. Going to a great college also doesn’t translate to a great job.

The job market is tough, but not going to college isn’t the solution. What job would you expect someone to get without a degree?

DP but there are tons of jobs for kids with trade skills in welding, electrician, machining et al.

WSJ just ran an article about some HSs opening large VoTech shops and getting funding from private industry because there are so many unfilled trade jobs (which blows a hole in the argument that there aren’t good factory jobs).

Every kid in the welding class gets an internship and is offered a FT job with most starting around $80k.

Now, you can’t just go get a job at a car company with zero skills like you could in the 1950s, but you can acquire these skills for little to no cost.

The WSJ can talk until they’re blue in the face but the 2 million dollar lifetime earnings premium to college graduation is a stubborn reality.

Also, invariably, people who point to the trades have never actually worked in a trade. Your body is mostly broken by the time you hit 40 in many if not most trades.

This. People were okay taking manual labor jobs at a time when life expectancy was shorter and when it was feasible to get a pension after say 20 years of service. You might never be rich but around the time you physically couldn't do the job anymore, you could retire and live okay.

Cost of living is much higher and people live much longer. Social security kicks in later and the vast majority of jobs in the trades don't have pensions. What happens when someone without a college degree is simply physically no longer able to climb up on roofs or get under cars on a daily basis, and they have no pension and social security is at least 15 years away? What do they do in the meantime. Another thing that used to happen is that businesses would take care of their own a bit and someone in this position might be kept on in a management position to help train younger workers and oversee jobs. But now these businesses have been corporatized or bought up by private equity, and someone like that is seen as dead weight that is not sufficiently profitable. Out you go.

If my kid wanted to go into a trade, I'd still suggest they get at least an associates degree in business so that they have a way to segue from the labor side to management, start their own business, etc. If they wanted to go straight into a trade, I'd help them find night or other PT programs to ensure they got some kind of academic training in a practical field that would complement that work. My brother worked construction in his 20s while getting a degree -- it is tough for a while but in the end puts you in a better position than many other college grads because you have more money and you have real work experience.

I want my kids thinking of options for when they are 35, 45, 55. I don't care if they have white collar jobs but I don't want them to be short sighted and then have major regrets when they want to buy a house, when they blow out their knee, when their own kid has college aspirations.

First, very few jobs these days have a pension...in fact almost none. We have 401k accounts which nearly every company provides regardless of your job function

Second, there are many trade jobs working at large companies that come with benefits, 401k retirement options, etc. Those companies also allow the junior welder to move up through the organization and become management of the welding/trade groups, so no you aren't having to perform the same physical tasks at 50 as when you were 20.

The WSJ article wasn't showing kids going to work for some mom & pop operation, but some large companies (and some small companies too).

There are fewer than 500,000 welding jobs available in the US. Same with plumbers (who by the way generally don't go work for major corporations but for small mom and pop shops or they work as independent contractors). For those welding jobs, how many do you think are managerial level? Maybe 100k? What happens to everyone else?

There are 3.6 million teaching jobs in the US, and that may be low as there is a reported teacher shortage. Most teaching jobs come with guaranteed benefits after a certain number of years of teaching, including retirement benefits. And teaching has a flat hierarchy. If you can teach, you likely can get a job in a classroom somewhere. Many districts also do pay increases for seniority, which means you don't have to earn a management position to make more money -- you just stick it out and get step ups.

And teaching is far less susceptible to layoffs from automation. And teaching, despite all the many downsides, is also a lot more comfortable to do when you are 50+ -- indoors, better air quality, lower physical expectations.

I'd take a career in teaching over a career in welding if my goal is economic stability, any day of the week.

There are welders, electricians, plumbers, pipe fitters, HVAC folks, machinists, etc. There are 34.7MM people employed in the US in the skilled trades...which appears to be 10x the number of teaching jobs. So, if by your estimates, 20% of all welders can go into management, that means roughly 7MM skilled trades workers can go into management.

Plenty of people have no interest in trying to corral a classroom full of kids, many who aren't interested in your particular subject, for 8 hours per day, plus the unpaid time grading papers, preparing for class and what not. I mean, are you not looking at other threads on DCUM about disgruntled teachers? There are literally 100+.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tell me what are the job outcomes for your AP students? Maybe kids should be focused more on learning life skills as they go to HS. Going to college is no longer the meal ticket to a good job.

Not saying no rigorous education but it’s not the end all be all anymore. Going to a great college also doesn’t translate to a great job.

The job market is tough, but not going to college isn’t the solution. What job would you expect someone to get without a degree?

DP but there are tons of jobs for kids with trade skills in welding, electrician, machining et al.

WSJ just ran an article about some HSs opening large VoTech shops and getting funding from private industry because there are so many unfilled trade jobs (which blows a hole in the argument that there aren’t good factory jobs).

Every kid in the welding class gets an internship and is offered a FT job with most starting around $80k.

Now, you can’t just go get a job at a car company with zero skills like you could in the 1950s, but you can acquire these skills for little to no cost.

The WSJ can talk until they’re blue in the face but the 2 million dollar lifetime earnings premium to college graduation is a stubborn reality.

Also, invariably, people who point to the trades have never actually worked in a trade. Your body is mostly broken by the time you hit 40 in many if not most trades.

Depends on your college major and you also have to look at ROI.

The average English major from any college ranked probably 25+ doesn't have anything approaching the $2MM lifetime earnings premium. Many if not most have a negative college ROI. Different story for the engineering major.

Even English majors have a work advantage over someone without a degree. An English major can apply for a management position because they have a BA, in many organizations you will be immediately weeded out without that degree.

Many English majors wind up in teaching, a profession with a lot of job securities and terrific retirement benefits. A pension at 50 or 55 is worth way more than whatever the degree cost.

People crap all over English majors but the truth is that even an English major is more employable, with greater flexibility in shifting labor markets and more longterm earning potential, than someone with no college degree at all. Get that English degree from a state school with no loans, and even better. College degrees continue to be worth a lot in our society, even if not from top schools and even if not from the hottest majors. It is naive to think otherwise.

Except what you write isn't true.

Go read this study (which is one of many) https://freopp.org/whitepapers/does-college-pay-off-a-comprehensive-return-on-investment-analysis/

To highlight:

The findings show that college is worth it more often than not, but there are key exceptions. ROI for the median bachelor’s degree is $160,000, but that median belies a wide range of outcomes for individual programs. Bachelor’s degrees in engineering, computer science, nursing, and economics tend to have a payoff of $500,000 or more. Other majors, including fine arts, education, English, and psychology, usually have a smaller payoff — or none at all.

Alternatives to the traditional four-year degree produce varied results. Undergraduate certificates in the technical trades tend to have a stronger ROI than the median bachelor’s degree. However, many other subbaccalaureate credentials — including associate degrees in liberal arts or general education — have no payoff at all. Field of study is the paramount consideration at both the baccalaureate and subbaccalaureate levels.

All sectors of higher education contain negative-ROI programs. Nearly a quarter of bachelor’s degree programs have negative ROI, along with 43 percent of associate degree programs. Master’s degree programs, with their high costs and uneven benefits, are among the worst performers: nearly half fail to pay off.

About 70 percent of undergraduate programs yield a positive return on investment. While that means higher education is still a decent bet on average, a large minority of programs do not pay off. Around 23 percent of four-year degree programs have a negative return on investment, along with 43 percent of two-year degree programs. (These figures, along with all others in the report unless otherwise indicated, are weighted by enrollment.)

Undergraduate certificates in the technical trades — which include vehicle maintenance and repair, precision metal working, HVAC technology, and electrical and power transmission installation — are more lucrative than a bachelor’s degree. Median ROI for the technical trades is $313,000, compared to just $160,000 for the median bachelor’s degree. Two-year degrees in nursing and other health professions also boast a strong median ROI of $224,000.

The analysis here is incredibly weak. For instance the ROI by major is based on median earnings. This results in major skewing upwards for degrees with a higher ceiling for and much lower medians for degree that have lower ceilings. It's unsurprising that an education degree shows the lowest median ROI for career earnings because there is a low ceiling on teacher pay relative to other jobs. However, teachers have very high job security and tend to have lucrative benefits that don't kick in until their careers are over. These factors, which are real economic benefits that help ensure that grads with education degrees stay employed even in down economies and secure economic stability into retirement, are not represented in the chart at all. It's also not adjusting for cost of living -- there are people teaching in rural areas who make shockingly little. However, they live in places where it's possible to buy a home for 70k, so it actually might be okay. Whereas people in engineering, computer science, and economics, are likely to be required to live near major cities where cost of living is much higher (and thus so are salaries) -- the median ROI for these jobs is of course much higher but may only result in a moderately higher quality of life because of COL issues.

You might read that article and conclude that everyone should go get a degree in engineering or economics, and if they can't they should just go into the trades. The reality is way more complicated, but that report was written with a clear agenda so those complications are ignored.

Perhaps the irony is lost on you...but the WSJ article was highlighting how high schools are expanding their technical/trade centers.

Well guess what...the teachers that are now teaching in those centers are in fact skilled trades people that have been hired as....teachers!

So, they get all the benefits that you claim are so lucrative for teachers, but still don't have to go to college and those schools aren't requiring they get education degrees.

[Anonymous]

Ok, this thread has gone off another tangent. Yes, vocational training is a great offering and DCPS does some and could do more.

What does this have to do with DCPS doing a poor job of running a school system?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tell me what are the job outcomes for your AP students? Maybe kids should be focused more on learning life skills as they go to HS. Going to college is no longer the meal ticket to a good job.

Not saying no rigorous education but it’s not the end all be all anymore. Going to a great college also doesn’t translate to a great job.

The job market is tough, but not going to college isn’t the solution. What job would you expect someone to get without a degree?

But tell me how many jobs are going to choose you based on going to Walls and then Harvard vs. something average? If you don’t have the connections you will be getting the same money as the kid who got a 3.2 and went to a mediocre college.

So what are the job outcomes for AP students who don’t have a silver spoon?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tell me what are the job outcomes for your AP students? Maybe kids should be focused more on learning life skills as they go to HS. Going to college is no longer the meal ticket to a good job.

Not saying no rigorous education but it’s not the end all be all anymore. Going to a great college also doesn’t translate to a great job.

The job market is tough, but not going to college isn’t the solution. What job would you expect someone to get without a degree?

DP but there are tons of jobs for kids with trade skills in welding, electrician, machining et al.

WSJ just ran an article about some HSs opening large VoTech shops and getting funding from private industry because there are so many unfilled trade jobs (which blows a hole in the argument that there aren’t good factory jobs).

Every kid in the welding class gets an internship and is offered a FT job with most starting around $80k.

Now, you can’t just go get a job at a car company with zero skills like you could in the 1950s, but you can acquire these skills for little to no cost.

Like I thought you would, you only mentioned trade jobs that require manual labor skills. What about someone who doesn’t want to work in such field?

I was the OP poster, I said what do AP classes do for getting a job, not college. But I’ll add what can a specific college do? Not everyone from Harvard is making a high six figures. The majority are getting paid just the same as anyone else or worse.

Some entry level jobs want a masters now AND experience. It’s hard to get a good paying job as a young gen z. Even if you went to Walls and went to a great college…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tell me what are the job outcomes for your AP students? Maybe kids should be focused more on learning life skills as they go to HS. Going to college is no longer the meal ticket to a good job.

Not saying no rigorous education but it’s not the end all be all anymore. Going to a great college also doesn’t translate to a great job.

The job market is tough, but not going to college isn’t the solution. What job would you expect someone to get without a degree?

DP but there are tons of jobs for kids with trade skills in welding, electrician, machining et al.

WSJ just ran an article about some HSs opening large VoTech shops and getting funding from private industry because there are so many unfilled trade jobs (which blows a hole in the argument that there aren’t good factory jobs).

Every kid in the welding class gets an internship and is offered a FT job with most starting around $80k.

Now, you can’t just go get a job at a car company with zero skills like you could in the 1950s, but you can acquire these skills for little to no cost.

The WSJ can talk until they’re blue in the face but the 2 million dollar lifetime earnings premium to college graduation is a stubborn reality.

Also, invariably, people who point to the trades have never actually worked in a trade. Your body is mostly broken by the time you hit 40 in many if not most trades.

This. People were okay taking manual labor jobs at a time when life expectancy was shorter and when it was feasible to get a pension after say 20 years of service. You might never be rich but around the time you physically couldn't do the job anymore, you could retire and live okay.

Cost of living is much higher and people live much longer. Social security kicks in later and the vast majority of jobs in the trades don't have pensions. What happens when someone without a college degree is simply physically no longer able to climb up on roofs or get under cars on a daily basis, and they have no pension and social security is at least 15 years away? What do they do in the meantime. Another thing that used to happen is that businesses would take care of their own a bit and someone in this position might be kept on in a management position to help train younger workers and oversee jobs. But now these businesses have been corporatized or bought up by private equity, and someone like that is seen as dead weight that is not sufficiently profitable. Out you go.

If my kid wanted to go into a trade, I'd still suggest they get at least an associates degree in business so that they have a way to segue from the labor side to management, start their own business, etc. If they wanted to go straight into a trade, I'd help them find night or other PT programs to ensure they got some kind of academic training in a practical field that would complement that work. My brother worked construction in his 20s while getting a degree -- it is tough for a while but in the end puts you in a better position than many other college grads because you have more money and you have real work experience.

I want my kids thinking of options for when they are 35, 45, 55. I don't care if they have white collar jobs but I don't want them to be short sighted and then have major regrets when they want to buy a house, when they blow out their knee, when their own kid has college aspirations.

First, very few jobs these days have a pension...in fact almost none. We have 401k accounts which nearly every company provides regardless of your job function

Second, there are many trade jobs working at large companies that come with benefits, 401k retirement options, etc. Those companies also allow the junior welder to move up through the organization and become management of the welding/trade groups, so no you aren't having to perform the same physical tasks at 50 as when you were 20.

The WSJ article wasn't showing kids going to work for some mom & pop operation, but some large companies (and some small companies too).

There are fewer than 500,000 welding jobs available in the US. Same with plumbers (who by the way generally don't go work for major corporations but for small mom and pop shops or they work as independent contractors). For those welding jobs, how many do you think are managerial level? Maybe 100k? What happens to everyone else?

There are 3.6 million teaching jobs in the US, and that may be low as there is a reported teacher shortage. Most teaching jobs come with guaranteed benefits after a certain number of years of teaching, including retirement benefits. And teaching has a flat hierarchy. If you can teach, you likely can get a job in a classroom somewhere. Many districts also do pay increases for seniority, which means you don't have to earn a management position to make more money -- you just stick it out and get step ups.

And teaching is far less susceptible to layoffs from automation. And teaching, despite all the many downsides, is also a lot more comfortable to do when you are 50+ -- indoors, better air quality, lower physical expectations.

I'd take a career in teaching over a career in welding if my goal is economic stability, any day of the week.

There are welders, electricians, plumbers, pipe fitters, HVAC folks, machinists, etc. There are 34.7MM people employed in the US in the skilled trades...which appears to be 10x the number of teaching jobs. So, if by your estimates, 20% of all welders can go into management, that means roughly 7MM skilled trades workers can go into management.

Plenty of people have no interest in trying to corral a classroom full of kids, many who aren't interested in your particular subject, for 8 hours per day, plus the unpaid time grading papers, preparing for class and what not. I mean, are you not looking at other threads on DCUM about disgruntled teachers? There are literally 100+.

+1. People don’t get it. I’m a parent and have volunteered in the classroom. Those who haven’t should try it sometime.

My god, I wouldn’t last 2-3 hours. So many kids just in need of redirection, let alone trying to teach them.

I’ll take my job any day over teaching. BTW I’m in the medical field.

Teachers are way underpaid and under-appreciated. Depending parents who think their child is the only one that matters don’t help either. There is a huge shortage of teachers and it’s just getting worst.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tell me what are the job outcomes for your AP students? Maybe kids should be focused more on learning life skills as they go to HS. Going to college is no longer the meal ticket to a good job.

Not saying no rigorous education but it’s not the end all be all anymore. Going to a great college also doesn’t translate to a great job.

The job market is tough, but not going to college isn’t the solution. What job would you expect someone to get without a degree?

DP but there are tons of jobs for kids with trade skills in welding, electrician, machining et al.

WSJ just ran an article about some HSs opening large VoTech shops and getting funding from private industry because there are so many unfilled trade jobs (which blows a hole in the argument that there aren’t good factory jobs).

Every kid in the welding class gets an internship and is offered a FT job with most starting around $80k.

Now, you can’t just go get a job at a car company with zero skills like you could in the 1950s, but you can acquire these skills for little to no cost.

The WSJ can talk until they’re blue in the face but the 2 million dollar lifetime earnings premium to college graduation is a stubborn reality.

Also, invariably, people who point to the trades have never actually worked in a trade. Your body is mostly broken by the time you hit 40 in many if not most trades.

This. People were okay taking manual labor jobs at a time when life expectancy was shorter and when it was feasible to get a pension after say 20 years of service. You might never be rich but around the time you physically couldn't do the job anymore, you could retire and live okay.

Cost of living is much higher and people live much longer. Social security kicks in later and the vast majority of jobs in the trades don't have pensions. What happens when someone without a college degree is simply physically no longer able to climb up on roofs or get under cars on a daily basis, and they have no pension and social security is at least 15 years away? What do they do in the meantime. Another thing that used to happen is that businesses would take care of their own a bit and someone in this position might be kept on in a management position to help train younger workers and oversee jobs. But now these businesses have been corporatized or bought up by private equity, and someone like that is seen as dead weight that is not sufficiently profitable. Out you go.

If my kid wanted to go into a trade, I'd still suggest they get at least an associates degree in business so that they have a way to segue from the labor side to management, start their own business, etc. If they wanted to go straight into a trade, I'd help them find night or other PT programs to ensure they got some kind of academic training in a practical field that would complement that work. My brother worked construction in his 20s while getting a degree -- it is tough for a while but in the end puts you in a better position than many other college grads because you have more money and you have real work experience.

I want my kids thinking of options for when they are 35, 45, 55. I don't care if they have white collar jobs but I don't want them to be short sighted and then have major regrets when they want to buy a house, when they blow out their knee, when their own kid has college aspirations.

First, very few jobs these days have a pension...in fact almost none. We have 401k accounts which nearly every company provides regardless of your job function

Second, there are many trade jobs working at large companies that come with benefits, 401k retirement options, etc. Those companies also allow the junior welder to move up through the organization and become management of the welding/trade groups, so no you aren't having to perform the same physical tasks at 50 as when you were 20.

The WSJ article wasn't showing kids going to work for some mom & pop operation, but some large companies (and some small companies too).

There are fewer than 500,000 welding jobs available in the US. Same with plumbers (who by the way generally don't go work for major corporations but for small mom and pop shops or they work as independent contractors). For those welding jobs, how many do you think are managerial level? Maybe 100k? What happens to everyone else?

There are 3.6 million teaching jobs in the US, and that may be low as there is a reported teacher shortage. Most teaching jobs come with guaranteed benefits after a certain number of years of teaching, including retirement benefits. And teaching has a flat hierarchy. If you can teach, you likely can get a job in a classroom somewhere. Many districts also do pay increases for seniority, which means you don't have to earn a management position to make more money -- you just stick it out and get step ups.

And teaching is far less susceptible to layoffs from automation. And teaching, despite all the many downsides, is also a lot more comfortable to do when you are 50+ -- indoors, better air quality, lower physical expectations.

I'd take a career in teaching over a career in welding if my goal is economic stability, any day of the week.

There are welders, electricians, plumbers, pipe fitters, HVAC folks, machinists, etc. There are 34.7MM people employed in the US in the skilled trades...which appears to be 10x the number of teaching jobs. So, if by your estimates, 20% of all welders can go into management, that means roughly 7MM skilled trades workers can go into management.

Plenty of people have no interest in trying to corral a classroom full of kids, many who aren't interested in your particular subject, for 8 hours per day, plus the unpaid time grading papers, preparing for class and what not. I mean, are you not looking at other threads on DCUM about disgruntled teachers? There are literally 100+.

+1. People don’t get it. I’m a parent and have volunteered in the classroom. Those who haven’t should try it sometime.

My god, I wouldn’t last 2-3 hours. So many kids just in need of redirection, let alone trying to teach them.

I’ll take my job any day over teaching. BTW I’m in the medical field.

Teachers are way underpaid and under-appreciated. Depending parents who think their child is the only one that matters don’t help either. There is a huge shortage of teachers and it’s just getting worst.

typo demanding parents

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tell me what are the job outcomes for your AP students? Maybe kids should be focused more on learning life skills as they go to HS. Going to college is no longer the meal ticket to a good job.

Not saying no rigorous education but it’s not the end all be all anymore. Going to a great college also doesn’t translate to a great job.

The job market is tough, but not going to college isn’t the solution. What job would you expect someone to get without a degree?

But tell me how many jobs are going to choose you based on going to Walls and then Harvard vs. something average? If you don’t have the connections you will be getting the same money as the kid who got a 3.2 and went to a mediocre college.

So what are the job outcomes for AP students who don’t have a silver spoon?

Wut? So what if you go to Harvard and then make average money? The experience, what you learn about life and the world and the ability to think -- priceless. The experience is not "average" and life is not just about salary. Ask me how I know...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tell me what are the job outcomes for your AP students? Maybe kids should be focused more on learning life skills as they go to HS. Going to college is no longer the meal ticket to a good job.

Not saying no rigorous education but it’s not the end all be all anymore. Going to a great college also doesn’t translate to a great job.

The job market is tough, but not going to college isn’t the solution. What job would you expect someone to get without a degree?

But tell me how many jobs are going to choose you based on going to Walls and then Harvard vs. something average? If you don’t have the connections you will be getting the same money as the kid who got a 3.2 and went to a mediocre college.

So what are the job outcomes for AP students who don’t have a silver spoon?

I am not really understanding the logic here.

First, if you don’t have a silver spoon (ie you don’t have a lot of money) then in all likelihood your Harvard education was free, while the kid at the mediocre college likely received little financial aid.

Second, there are plenty of kids with no connections that attend Harvard, major in history as example, do well and then get jobs with investment banks, consulting groups, etc.

There are exactly zero 3.2 mediocre college kids that major in history and even get one interview at those places (other than the mediocre children of rich parents).

You are correct that a STEM major at San Jose State may end up at Google alongside the Harvard grad…but that is because they both have a marketable major, San Jose State has a locational advantage for its grads and both likely did well in college.

All that said…every college has kids with bad life outcomes for whatever reason…even Harvard. Just that Harvard has far, far fewer than the random mediocre college.

[Anonymous]

Furthermore, all the data from opportunity insights suggests that all else being equal, the lower your SES, the larger the impact of school rank on your life outcomes. Rich kids are fine wherever they go to school (within reason). Poor kids get a huge leg up going to an elite school versus the counterfactual state school.

[Anonymous]

on the last point - I've also read about poor kids going through a KIPP type program to a relatively elite school without supports and crashing out. How do people do that?