Election Day!

[Anonymous]

What I would like to know Jeff is VA's congressional approval numbers. Obama right now is much a cult of personality - not unlike Reagan in the early 80's. Lots of true believers. That's fine and I want him to succeed, but to succeed with the correct policies, not the wrong ones. I think if you ask what the congressional approval numbers are you might find something very different. Just saying...

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:What I would like to know Jeff is VA's congressional approval numbers. Obama right now is much a cult of personality - not unlike Reagan in the early 80's. Lots of true believers. That's fine and I want him to succeed, but to succeed with the correct policies, not the wrong ones. I think if you ask what the congressional approval numbers are you might find something very different. Just saying...

I don't know the numbers for VA Congressional districts, but generally, approval numbers for both Republican and Democratic members of Congress are lower than Obama's numbers. Two Congressional elections were held yesterday. Democrats won both of them. One of those was in a district in which Republicans had held the seat since the civil war. So, at the Congressional level, things look pretty good for Democrats.

[Anonymous]

More than four in 10 voters in Virginia said their view of Obama factored into their choice on Tuesday, and those voters roughly split between expressing support and opposition for the president. People who said they disapprove of Obama's job performance voted overwhelmingly Republican, and those who approve of the president favored Deeds, the Democrat. ....


yes, an 18 point landslide by the Republican had NOTHING to do with Obama firing up the republican base. this election was all about Obama.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

wrong. election polling shows Obama approval #s under 50% in Virginia. and in a 50/50 state (essentially), that is huge. BIG dropoff from the 2008 election.

I think I'll go with my sourced numbers rather than your pulled from your ass assertion. But, thanks for playing.

hah, nice guy as usual. love welcoming liberals. this is from the Washington Post:

The topline numbers in New Jersey and Virginia are, by now, familiar to any political junkie. We dug into the exit polls in both states for some inside information about the political landscape. A few nuggets: suburban voters moved to Republicans (55 percent to 44 percent in Virginia; 51 percent to 43 percent in New Jersey), voters who said the economy was the top issue went to former Virginia attorney general Bob McDonnell (R) by 14 points but to New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) by 22, Obama approval/disapproval was 49 percent/50 percent in Virginia and 57/42 in New Jersey, and among voters 65 and older McDonnell won by 18 points and former U.S. attorney Chris Christie (R) won by 15.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:yes, an 18 point landslide by the Republican had NOTHING to do with Obama firing up the republican base. this election was all about Obama.

If it makes you feel good to say that, then by all means, say it. However, saying it will not make it true. Deeds did not run as an Obama Democrat. He said he would opt out of a public option health insurance plan and distanced himself from Obama in other ways. Therefore, Obama supporters had little interest in supporting him. As a result, the electorate was older and whiter than it was a year ago.

In the one race where conservatives really did try to make an issue of Obama, NY-23, their candidate lost. Should we blame that on Sarah Palin since she endorsed the loser?

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:
hah, nice guy as usual. love welcoming liberals. this is from the Washington Post:

The topline numbers in New Jersey and Virginia are, by now, familiar to any political junkie. We dug into the exit polls in both states for some inside information about the political landscape. A few nuggets: suburban voters moved to Republicans (55 percent to 44 percent in Virginia; 51 percent to 43 percent in New Jersey), voters who said the economy was the top issue went to former Virginia attorney general Bob McDonnell (R) by 14 points but to New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) by 22, Obama approval/disapproval was 49 percent/50 percent in Virginia and 57/42 in New Jersey, and among voters 65 and older McDonnell won by 18 points and former U.S. attorney Chris Christie (R) won by 15.

So, you are making a big deal of a one point deficit in a poll that probably has a margin of error of 3 or 4? Especially when other polls have it differently? Go ahead and delude yourself.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:... Obama approval/disapproval was 49 percent/50 percent in Virginia ...

Without commenting on the substantive issue of whether it is at all important which side of 50% the popularity ratings are, I would say that bold-facing a statistically insignificant result is child-like bragging. Please note that in saying the poster did something child-like I am not calling the poster childish -- a lot of us get carried away rooting for one side or the other as though governance were a little league ballgame.

[Anonymous]

the point is that when a PP noted that the approval numbers in the exit polls were 49%, JSteele jumped down his throat and threw in some personal insults. So when the PP provides the source (and bolds it for ease of reference), he/she is then being childish? Ok. thanks for clearing it up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:the point is that when a PP noted that the approval numbers in the exit polls were 49%, JSteele jumped down his throat and threw in some personal insults. So when the PP provides the source (and bolds it for ease of reference), he/she is then being childish? Ok. thanks for clearing it up.

I explicitly said I was not accusing the poster of being childish. I think the importance both sides are placing on the issue is a bit silly.

I hope that clears it up as requested, and I am grateful for the thanks in advance.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:the point is that when a PP noted that the approval numbers in the exit polls were 49%, JSteele jumped down his throat and threw in some personal insults. So when the PP provides the source (and bolds it for ease of reference), he/she is then being childish? Ok. thanks for clearing it up.

The PP didn't say the exit polls were 49% and I didn't make personal insults. But, other than that, you are pretty much correct. Oh, except that nobody accused the poster of being childish.

[Anonymous]

yes you are absolutely correct. saying "under 50%" is not the same thing as saying "49%".


love the Clintonian analysis of language ....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More than four in 10 voters in Virginia said their view of Obama factored into their choice on Tuesday, and those voters roughly split between expressing support and opposition for the president. People who said they disapprove of Obama's job performance voted overwhelmingly Republican, and those who approve of the president favored Deeds, the Democrat. ....


yes, an 18 point landslide by the Republican had NOTHING to do with Obama firing up the republican base. this election was all about Obama.

This election was about a lackluster Dem who was the nominee because of a three way primary in which the stronger candidates nullified each other.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:love the Clintonian analysis of language ....

Well, if an expectation of accuracy is Clintonian, I guess that lying about what people have said must be Rovian.

The poster not only claimed that Obama's approval rating was less than 50%, but that it was a "BIG dropoff from 2008". No mathematically inclined individual would interpret a drop from 52 to 49 as being "BIG".

Moreover, since Deeds only got 41 percent of the vote, I fail to see how Obama's rating of 49% could be a drag on him. It the numbers were reversed, it would make sense. But the numbers aren't reversed, so it doesn't make sense.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:love the Clintonian analysis of language ....

Well, if an expectation of accuracy is Clintonian, I guess that lying about what people have said must be Rovian.

The poster not only claimed that Obama's approval rating was less than 50%, but that it was a "BIG dropoff from 2008". No mathematically inclined individual would interpret a drop from 52 to 49 as being "BIG".

Moreover, since Deeds only got 41 percent of the vote, I fail to see how Obama's rating of 49% could be a drag on him. It the numbers were reversed, it would make sense. But the numbers aren't reversed, so it doesn't make sense.

Careful, folks, I think you have fallen into nit-picking. I would make a joke about it, but that would make me a nit-wit, wouldn't it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More than four in 10 voters in Virginia said their view of Obama factored into their choice on Tuesday, and those voters roughly split between expressing support and opposition for the president. People who said they disapprove of Obama's job performance voted overwhelmingly Republican, and those who approve of the president favored Deeds, the Democrat. ....


yes, an 18 point landslide by the Republican had NOTHING to do with Obama firing up the republican base. this election was all about Obama.

In other words, approx. 60% of the voters said their view of Obama did not factor into their choice on Tuesday, which means that the 18% landslide had nothing to do with Obama and everything to do with local VA issues. You see grasshopper there are myriad ways to interpret polling data.